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Cheltenham Festival
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The consensus is that the British hold the aces in the Gold Cup, with the Tizzard trio now the first three favourites. But is there logic behind this?
Over the past three years, Irish horses have taken seven of the nine places, the exceptions being The Giant Bolster, 3rd in 2014, and Coneygree. Indeed, the first four home last year were Irish. Plenty of short priced British horses have been turned over in these renewals, such as Bob's Worth (6/4), Cue Card (5/2), Silviniaco (11/4 and 7/2), Many Clouds (7/1) and Holywell (8/1). Is this co-incidence or are British horses regularly over-rated for this contest?
There is no valid form comparison between the British and Irish in this year's renewal; none of the principals have crossed their respective waters. Thistlecrack has beaten novices, second division horses and an off-form Cue Card, while being beaten himself by a dependable yardstick short of the top class. Cue Card has historic form but his only convincing run out of three came against a difficult to assess Coneygree. Native River has never run in a senior Grade One and was all out to win two big handicaps off 155. Are they clear of the Irish?
The obvious point about the Irish is that they seem to be much of a muchness; very little between several of them in the Lexus and the Irish Gold Cup. Djakadam is the clear pick in terms of achievement, but he seems to have run around 10lbs below form in each of his four runs since last year's Gold Cup and there's little between him and Outlander this season. Sizing John is progressive and relishing longer distances. Champagne West and Empire of Dirt are improving handicappers. The former hosed up in the Thyestes off a 1lb lesser mark than Native River's wins, while the latter was only seven pounds light of that rating when doing the same in the Troytown. In terms of handicap performance, these two have achieved very much the same as Native River, yet are available at eight times his price. Even good old Don Poli has been very close to the action in his last two runs, both Grade One's.
If you look at achievement rather than the name of a race, is it not easy to argue that the Irish horses are at least as good as the Tizzard trio, yet all can be found at sporting prices or better? Some are still uncertain runners but, once the shape of the race becomes clear, I'll be looking across the water for the value.
Over the past three years, Irish horses have taken seven of the nine places, the exceptions being The Giant Bolster, 3rd in 2014, and Coneygree. Indeed, the first four home last year were Irish. Plenty of short priced British horses have been turned over in these renewals, such as Bob's Worth (6/4), Cue Card (5/2), Silviniaco (11/4 and 7/2), Many Clouds (7/1) and Holywell (8/1). Is this co-incidence or are British horses regularly over-rated for this contest?
There is no valid form comparison between the British and Irish in this year's renewal; none of the principals have crossed their respective waters. Thistlecrack has beaten novices, second division horses and an off-form Cue Card, while being beaten himself by a dependable yardstick short of the top class. Cue Card has historic form but his only convincing run out of three came against a difficult to assess Coneygree. Native River has never run in a senior Grade One and was all out to win two big handicaps off 155. Are they clear of the Irish?
The obvious point about the Irish is that they seem to be much of a muchness; very little between several of them in the Lexus and the Irish Gold Cup. Djakadam is the clear pick in terms of achievement, but he seems to have run around 10lbs below form in each of his four runs since last year's Gold Cup and there's little between him and Outlander this season. Sizing John is progressive and relishing longer distances. Champagne West and Empire of Dirt are improving handicappers. The former hosed up in the Thyestes off a 1lb lesser mark than Native River's wins, while the latter was only seven pounds light of that rating when doing the same in the Troytown. In terms of handicap performance, these two have achieved very much the same as Native River, yet are available at eight times his price. Even good old Don Poli has been very close to the action in his last two runs, both Grade One's.
If you look at achievement rather than the name of a race, is it not easy to argue that the Irish horses are at least as good as the Tizzard trio, yet all can be found at sporting prices or better? Some are still uncertain runners but, once the shape of the race becomes clear, I'll be looking across the water for the value.
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Personally, the best of the Irish is clearly Djakadam (ignore the Lexus, given a quiet ride); he was still in contention two fences out in last year's Chltenham Gold Cup (CGC) (admittedly Cue Card was going superb just prior to falling); the Lexus did not inspire confidence and neither the Irish Gold Cup using Don Poli as a guide - Don Poli finished 10l behind Djakadam in the 2016 GC!
Apart from Djakadam who suffered a bad cut in the prep to 2016 GC the present Irish CGC probables looked pretty average, in my opinion. |
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But that's my point, impossible. Have the Brits actually achieved any more than the Irish?
On what basis are they so short in the betting and the Irish so long? |
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To me Thistlecrack (2/1) is far too shot and the Irish is Djakadam (only); Cue Card and Djakadam (got 9/1 and 10/1 respectively without Thistle) 2x the prices they ought to be (older/reason, both beaten).
Djakadam is a much fresher horse this year; the Irish pretenders are either improved handicappers or grade 2 horses eg Outlander (beatenby Kylemore Lough), Don Poli and Sizing John. I'd not be surprised if either Native River, Djakadam or Cue Card (in this order) outstaying Thistlecrack up the Cheltenham hill if jumping the last in unison. |
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Given a quiet ride?
Why on earth would Djakadam have been given a 'quiet ride' in the Grade 1 Lexus. To get his mark down for the Gold Cup? |
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i do enjoy your posts cyclops and clearly you put a lot of time into the gold cup and this is another cracking post
it isn't a race i normally delve but am interested this year in a wager as like you i see it as more open than the betting would suggest...am struggling with the angle though, however i still want to play the race i think djackadam is the best horse running here how i've handicapped them but i have to say i was on him last year and there are a few reasons why i maybe can't go in again this year, though i believe him to be the best horse running. i do believe he is best on soft but even if he got that, stamina really concerns me with him even though you could argue he did get home last year, for me he just found the one pace and wouldn't pick up, maybe the ground just found him out or is he just one paced?? i'm just not sure...even though they have trained him just for the one race each season and he has run well, i still believe a king george is his for the taking...he will take his chance again but will be vulnerable to an improver, even though at his age he should still be improving but can he step up again? or will he put it all in when it gets tough? i'm just not sure i had a bit of a stab on empire of dirt on sunday and was a bit sick the lad got caught out imo...he is 10 now but i still quite like him...there are some top class unexposed handicappers maybe running here, i say unexposed because like empire we have champagne west a top class mud lark on his day, the ground will be key to his chance however but his jumping really has improved... i still have reservations about sizing john at the trip similar to outlander but a couple of lurkers in more of that and minella rocco make this far from a done deal for the top of the market and soft ground will make this a brutal betting heat for the punter imo still we have to ponder |
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The horse everybody has forgotten is Sub Lieutenant. His form I'd actually not far of top class. I think he could be the right springer
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V.good write up here Cyclops thanks. I tend to agree with a lot of the above - I've backed Sizing John on the hope he gets the trip (on before the Irish at 40s) & Champagne West e/w at 25s, feel they have any amount of improvement in them in a wide open race. There are enough questions for me over the 3 Tizzard runners & Harry echo your points in that I've backed Djakadam the last 2 years and he always seems to just find one too good... hoping it will be one of the above! A solid place prospect however IMO. Sub Lieutenant is Ryanair bound no?
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Interesting that Richie Forrestal in today's RP echoes my thoughts. His view is that the market is all wrong, other than Thistlecrack whom he considers to be a worthy favourite. He particularly demolishes the claims of Native River, along the lines of my comments at the start of this thread.
Referring to Djakadam, I posted a thread at the start of the season that he was my banker of the meeting for a place at (then) 9/2. I remain convinced he will be placed and feel he stands every chance of winning. The downside is how easily Don Cossack put him away last year, but the plus is that, having been dramatically outpaced, he stayed on all the way up the straight. He travelled like a dream, jumped impeccably and to me remains overpriced, though his post Cheltenham form, as mentioned above, has been short of his best. Djakadam at twice the price of Native River seems absolutely wrong to me. |
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Djakadam is unlikely to have improved but apart from Thistlecrack (prior to the Cotswold Chase) it is an easier race to win without Don Cossack.
Native river is ever improving and he stays all day when most will be crying enough up the hill; he is not flashy beating the seasoned handicappers but the question marks of the principals give him a decent chance for at least a place, I believe. A little bit more than 4 weeks and all will be revealed. |
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Rightly or wrongly, I have dismissed all the Irish form.
Brits for me,Tizzard or NTD. |
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I'm the opposite!
 Sizing John or Outlander for me in the Gold Cup. I like the Irish novice form too, so backed Disko and Coney Island for the JLT and Balko des Flos for the RSA. Also backed Sub Lieutenant for the Ryanair on the back of his runs against Sizing and Outlander this year. |
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Well I was just talking about the Gold Cup form Chief.
I have ADO for the RSA, and I do quiet like Disko for the JLT,although I have Top Notch at decent price,but I will be looking at one other on the day. SL I agree as well is interesting. |
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I'm surprised a few of you have mentioned Sub Lieutenant, I had never even considered him for the GC and have backed him in the Ryanair. Hard to be confident about a horse that has never won beyond 2m 4f but at 66/1 NRNB it's probably worth a try
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Only see one post where SL was mentioned for the Gold Cup.
I would think hes Ryanair and an interesting outsider. |
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Outlander the clear pick for me - just a bit worried about his previous Cheltenham form. Empire Of Dirt would be my back-up.
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empire of D and SL both going to Ryanair and have backed them both as I can see either of them winning that race.
Gold cup is a conundrum and I have been against thistlecrack since he opened up at 4/1 it may be a costly mistake - I hope not I also backed don poli as a risky bet so this could be an expensive race for me Djackadam looks big at 9/1on here and how about Bristol de Mai as a lively outsider at nearly 50/1 on here |
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Didn't BDM get taken out of ryanair ?
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Oops misread that that. Yes he's a big price for gc.
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Get a bet on here,well enough said
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