Cheltenham Festival
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must admit i have not paid the gold cup too much attention ,was probably caught up it the adulation for thistlecrack and got it into my head that it was done and dusted , on looking at the race in more depth one that catches my eye and ticks a good few boxes is jonjos 7yo MINELLA ROCCO , winner of the 4 miler at last seasons festival beating native river who is currently 2nd fav at around 6/1 behind stablemate thistlecrack ,native river has improved this season winning the hennesey and welsh national whereas minella rocca has not shown an awfull lot but has festival form and will stay every yard and more of the gold cup trip , form this season has not been great but it was a similar story last year and heavily backed he won the 4 miler well. with these connections it is not so much about current form ,we know that he will be ready on the day (all being well ), 33s v 6s id take the 33s all day long ,
thistlecrack is a worthy favourite and should take the world of beating but as a novice and a very short price i have to take him on at around evs or odds on , there is some 15/2 a place on here to buttons but good value imo ............SELECTION CHELTENHAM GOLD CUP MINELLA ROCCO 33/1 most books 1 POINT EACH WAY ......good luck feel free to add comments and opinions
thistlecrack is a worthy favourite and should take the world of beating but as a novice and a very short price i have to take him on at around evs or odds on , there is some 15/2 a place on here to buttons but good value imo ............SELECTION CHELTENHAM GOLD CUP MINELLA ROCCO 33/1 most books 1 POINT EACH WAY ......good luck feel free to add comments and opinions
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I'd maybe have him at 33/1 each way if he gets a 3 day head start.
They missed a trick not sending him to the Welsh National to be honest, given he's beaten Native River before. |
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fair comment paterson ,and on most of his form you could not fancy him but what i am saying is as a value option to the fav who is a novice and a very short price with 4 chase starts ,33/1 each way for an unexposed course winner, proven stayer,rated 159 and with a trainer who has trained a gold cup winner ...........
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I reckon they gave the Welsh National a miss because he suffered quite a nasty fall at Aintree in early December and they wanted to allow him time to get over it - admittedly limited evidence suggests he's better on normal Spring ground too - although it was n't as gruelling at Chepstow as normal as it turned out.
Anyway, I could see him running well in the Gold Cup but Jonjo's recent pronouncement seemed to emphasize Irish Gold Cup and Grand National. If he ran well in the Irish Gold Cup then they'd probably have to take the Gold Cup seriously - as things stand, he's a bit similar to Many Clouds to me in that you can see him running in the Gold Cup and picking off horses who have tried to go with the gallop late on to run into a place without ever threatening to win. Goes without saying that a lot can change in two months though. |
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duffy
04 Jan 17 17:06 I agree with Minella Rocco, not bothered with the ins and outs of his form as he strikes you as an enigma (and a lazy one at that) that is really hard to fathom just what his level is, you hark back to McCoy stating that he was the horse he would miss riding, the disparity in price between he and Native River and hopefully a real strong pace bringing his abundant stamina into play...all things considered he is a decent 33/1 E/W shout. |
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I just pasted my thoughts from a couple of weeks back, although I've altered the 40's to 33's as he's come in a bit.
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Have you watched him jump this season?
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Just reading the OP again, you could make a compelling case for Blaklion, based on broadly similar points - and he is currently 70/1.
I know he's been thumped by Native River and will he get the Gold Cup trip and yes he's not shown much this season but festival form ....70/1... just saying, like. |
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i have seen him jump cyclops didnt look great ! but as said with these connections you can throw the formbook out the window ,iirc he ran and jumped similar on occasions last season ,untill the money that mattered was down then came the improvement , what gives me hope is that jonjo said "he has filled out his frame this year " or words to that effect , a natural improvement could be expected now he has filled out plus the fact that he is an unexposed lighty raced chaser who could be a lot better than he has shown ,.. rog blacklion ticks a fair few boxes and was one i considered but just think minella rocco ticks more .........it may well be that the field are playing for places as thistlecrack could be a class apart but come the day we will see !
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could it be on their minds after the weekends events ?
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Rocco was my only pre Xmas ante post.
Heading to the Irish Hennessey hopefully |
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I've got to admit until Saturdays fabulous and ultimately sad performance from Many Clouds, that I had given little thought to Minella Roccos chances as thought he was below the class. After Saturday it certainly gives him an EW chance on form and he will come up the hill if he's in contention.
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Couldnt have got it more wrong..
Barry choses Carlingford Lough (not even entered in Chelt) over Minella Rocco does not look good for my bets in Ire or Eng Gold Cup!! |
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Chooses!
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Bit slow in joining in,but taken 20 nrnb this morning.
I have a feeling he will be shorter later. |
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hard to know whats going on or where with these connections budd ,but if he can come back to his festival form of the 4 miler at last years fest puts him bang in the picture on a line through native river ,native river has obviously improved this season but no reason why rocco cant improve and the bare talent is there for all to see when he puts it together .
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the 20s nrnb looks good and is a win win situation ,tbh wish i had the nrnb am on at bigger prices on here and books but dont have the nrnb insurance
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Hes a bit of an enigma but I have never been bothered about those types,and you tend to get bigger odds when they do get it together,horses like Tidal Bay, Arcalis etc.
Not sure of course if he will win today,BG obviously don't think so,but his ride is probably primed for this as he normally is,i suspect MR may not be but as long as its a good and encouraging run that will do,and I would not expect his odds to lengthen after today. |
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agree with that budd ,think the horse is genuine all right but may have had some fitness issues /niggles and his seemingly poor runs in between targets give the image of an enigma or in an out performer, there are not many better trainers of a long distance staying chaser than jonjo imo and as we all know these connections target one race and its all about the target not the preps so those seemingly lack lustre run outs dont matter so much , hopefully the gold cup is a target ,jonjo is hinting that the national is the one, it may be but he will be giving weight to most , native river is around 4/1 for the gold cup and minnela has beaten him at the festival surely it has crossed thier minds that on all known form he must go close in a much more open that at first seemed gold cup , it must be on their minds now.
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am also not expecting "fireworks "from minella toda budd as this looks to be carlingfords day but would like to see a decent performance that blows the cobwebs away from rocco ,fingers crossed !
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one advantage minella rocco has! is IF lining up for the gold cup he should arrive as one of the freshest horses having had no slogs hard races or toe to battles this winter ,whereas most of the others have ,and as we know he stays every yard and more can be ridden more forcebally than say the fav who has a slight doubt about the trip .
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I think maybe April is seen as more of his race
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oh dear!!
Fell much too early to judge. Now what I wonder? |
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he jumped most of the way around riderless so don't think the fall damaged his confidence.
I remember happily telling my mates ahead of the 4 miler last season that he could n't jump before he scooted in, my revised feeling is that the better Spring ground helps him jumping. I'd still go Gold Cup but he's off the back of two falls now and opportunities for another prep race are limited. They could go for that listed race at Kelso that Many Clouds won last year as prep for the Grand National. |
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was thinking about adding more of that for the gold cup at 33s/40s + on here a week or 2 ago ,but after watching reruns of his last race in ireland where he was running a decent race but fell late on ,decided to hold fire ,have jjust gone in at around 27-28 on here as it looks too big and its an open race ,have learned he has had a breathing op since and for a stayers hurdle winner who beat annie power who has subsequently won a churdle he has some serious form if he can come back to his best ,good spring ground will help and if he can sort his jumping out then 28s is deffo too big imo , injuries and setbacks have blighted his career but no doubting his class .
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When did he have the breathing op? I wonder if it was before his last 2 runs because he's travelled far far better in his last two races, I like him too but was thinking more of the Ryanair for him
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Taken out Ryanair Duffy
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I worry about More Of That bleeding again. Prefer Minella Rocco of the two.
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Cheers fab, have to be GC then
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Let's hope the cheek pieces help.
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