Cheltenham Festival
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I'm not a knocker. I think Thistlecrack is a magnificent horse.
But in the tide of admiration for his fantastic winning sequence the fact has been lost that he has yet to rub up against a single top class horse on his game.
The best he faced over hurdles was Alpha Des Obeaux, rated 156 when running in the Stayers.
While, yes, he did face Cue Card in the King George, the latter was far from at his best, as the proximity of the others showed. Of the rest, Tea for Two is 1000/1 for the Gold Cup, Josses Hill's connections concede that he didn't stay and old Silviniaco is a long way from the top drawer these days.
He has yet to return a good time over fences and only once did so over hurdles; the King George was run just 0.7 seconds quicker than the Feltham and would have been a fair bit slower had Might Bite not come down at the last
Of course, a horse can only beat what turns up and, yes, he's thrashed the lot of them. Furthermore, it could well be that there's not a lot to beat in this year's Gold Cup. But am I alone in wondering just how good he will be if he ever encounters a really good opponent?
Some horses have a charmed life in terms of the era they're born in. Istabraq and Best Mate spring to mind. Thistlecrack may be another but how much more exciting if something really good takes him on in the Gold Cup. They all seem to be running scared at present.
But in the tide of admiration for his fantastic winning sequence the fact has been lost that he has yet to rub up against a single top class horse on his game.
The best he faced over hurdles was Alpha Des Obeaux, rated 156 when running in the Stayers.
While, yes, he did face Cue Card in the King George, the latter was far from at his best, as the proximity of the others showed. Of the rest, Tea for Two is 1000/1 for the Gold Cup, Josses Hill's connections concede that he didn't stay and old Silviniaco is a long way from the top drawer these days.
He has yet to return a good time over fences and only once did so over hurdles; the King George was run just 0.7 seconds quicker than the Feltham and would have been a fair bit slower had Might Bite not come down at the last
Of course, a horse can only beat what turns up and, yes, he's thrashed the lot of them. Furthermore, it could well be that there's not a lot to beat in this year's Gold Cup. But am I alone in wondering just how good he will be if he ever encounters a really good opponent?
Some horses have a charmed life in terms of the era they're born in. Istabraq and Best Mate spring to mind. Thistlecrack may be another but how much more exciting if something really good takes him on in the Gold Cup. They all seem to be running scared at present.
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Well, they're falling by the wayside, that's true. I don't think anybody is running scared - and why would they? Before Coneygree it had been 40 years since a novice won the Gold Cup, for every one of those there are plenty of Gloria Victis's.
I agree in part with your reading of the bare form, but his admirers (of which I am one) will point to the ease with which he has done it. He looks the real deal, but far from a certainty come the festival.
PS Couldn't this have gone on one of the multiple other Thistlecrack/Gold Cup threads?
I agree in part with your reading of the bare form, but his admirers (of which I am one) will point to the ease with which he has done it. He looks the real deal, but far from a certainty come the festival.
PS Couldn't this have gone on one of the multiple other Thistlecrack/Gold Cup threads?
The Gold Cup will still take some winning, but lets be honest he is the best horse. Kauto is the only 3 miler I've ever seen that has the sort of pace Thistlecrack has, I just hope he stays the extra 2.5 furlongs over the larger obstacles.
The ground will play a big factor. Quick going and you'd think he will gallop all over them. With cut in the ground the last thing Scu will be wanting is a slog with a horse like Native River, I think soft ground would even the playing field out a lot more.
He could have won the King George by double the distance if he wanted to.
The ground will play a big factor. Quick going and you'd think he will gallop all over them. With cut in the ground the last thing Scu will be wanting is a slog with a horse like Native River, I think soft ground would even the playing field out a lot more.
He could have won the King George by double the distance if he wanted to.
"He could have won the King George by double the distance if he wanted to"
Very true, owing to Cue Card cooking his goose not running his own race.
Nevertheless Thistlecrack has been given a 171 rating or 18lb superior to Tea For Two (TFT) who is 153 and a consistent performer) despite beaten only 3.25l - the normal handicap equivalent is one length = 1lb for the King George distance (I believe). Thus, despite winning only by 3.25l Thistlecrack had been rated as if he'd won by 18l or 5x his King George's winning distance.
The official rating for Cue Card is 176 hence his King George run was 23lbs below par (using the consistent TFT as a guide) or 23 lengths.
Very true, owing to Cue Card cooking his goose not running his own race.
Nevertheless Thistlecrack has been given a 171 rating or 18lb superior to Tea For Two (TFT) who is 153 and a consistent performer) despite beaten only 3.25l - the normal handicap equivalent is one length = 1lb for the King George distance (I believe). Thus, despite winning only by 3.25l Thistlecrack had been rated as if he'd won by 18l or 5x his King George's winning distance.
The official rating for Cue Card is 176 hence his King George run was 23lbs below par (using the consistent TFT as a guide) or 23 lengths.
This year is no different from every other - these bomb proof, re-mortgage your house absolute 100% certainties turn up and get beat. Whilst Thistlecrack is obviously a monster and worthy favorite, he will be his own undoing if he doesn't win the Gold Cup. His jumping is good but far from error free - if any race will find him out it is the Gold Cup - it will be the most competitive race he has ever run in.
Jan 12, 2017 -- 5:33PM, charlieptl wrote:
This year is no different from every other - these bomb proof, re-mortgage your house absolute 100% certainties turn up and get beat. Whilst Thistlecrack is obviously a monster and worthy favorite, he will be his own undoing if he doesn't win the Gold Cup. His jumping is good but far from error free - if any race will find him out it is the Gold Cup - it will be the most competitive race he has ever run in.
....ah but will it?
Who will turn up and then who will have the balls to serve it up to him, rather than just run for the place money?
If he puts in a clear round he wins. His stablemate in the form of his life and a true stayer is the only other horse i would consider could give him any kind of race.
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