tom .s gold cup pick

It seems like only yesterday the Don Cossack team was telling us Outlander is not fit to lace Don Cossack's horseshoes, but in fact it was the day before DC retired.

think he says each way !

Another one i backed some time ago though this time at the advised price of 20/1

rather than back outlander  each way if betting outlander i would bet to win and have the place stake on a similar biggish price 2nd selelection and hope that the fancied horses blow out

Why is he tipping each way antepost is it for his bookie mates? Every time you would take 2 in the race instead antepost. The each way part with the risk of not making the race is terrible value antepost.

agreed eric but some will follow the advice by tom segal, an example of value  when the lottery paid £15 or something crazy for 4 numbers some clowns were buying tickets the next day i knew one of them a horses punter and i said to him wtf it only paid £15 for 4 numbers why you still playing  do you know the true odds and what you should have got ?,he said yeah but ya still might win !

Yeah like cos for 95% of punters it's not the amount, it's the fun. Their not interested in odds, just what they might get back if they win.

I am not one of them but i know plenty whom are. I also play each way, in fact all my bets are each way. And i place more than one a race as everyone knows. 20/1 the win is 5/1 a place at 1/4, if you back all 10 in a 10 runner race (i never do that cos there's always 2 or 3 no hopers) at 10/1 your win book is 90% and your place book is 285% so your stakes are all going to be the same, you will win collect 110 points for your 10 win staked. As you have done them all each way @1/4 a place 1-2-3 the place parts of the bets collects 105. (3.5 for the two placed 2nd and 3rd and 3.5 for the place part of the winner) Thats 10 10 each ways = 200 collecting 215.00 giving a profit of 15 pts no matter the result. And as you have left off the no hopers your profit is bigger.

I don't want to get into the argument that it's not cos your doubling your stake etc, that bores me and it means nowt to me as it isn't the way i see it, nor is the way bookies see it either as there is two bets in an each way, a win and a place part. Ok with a traditional bookie you can't place just a place only bet it has to be each way but to be honest isn't that the fairest way? And if you were only wanting a place bet, there is always the exchanges which more often than not offer better odds anyways. Personally i couldn't live with myself if i placed a place only bet and the selection won.

Each way ok for a normal days racing or very close range antepost (up to a week or two) but longer term antepost the value is taken away by the fact you lose your stake if it ends up a none runner.

Your place part (and win part) is actually a double antepost to make the race as first leg and being placed the second leg.

20/1 each way bet antepost, 1/4 odds

Total stake 2 points, 1pt win bet + 1pt place bet gives
(20 + 1) +  (20/4 + 1) = 27 pt return for 2 pt (win+place) stake =  odds of 12.5/1 to win
or
(20/4 + 1) = 6 pt return for 2 pt (win+place) stake = odds of 2/1 to be placed

Remember both win and place parts of the antepost bet are really doubles, first leg to make race and second leg to win/be placed.

Taking a 20/1 shot to be each way reduces your odds for a win from 20/1 down to 12.5/1 but gives you a 2/1 bet to be placed in return.

Lets say the average chance of a horse making the Festival from 3 months before is odds of 1/4 for the first leg of the place double so your actual second leg of the place double for the 20/1 shot to be placed in the race is only 1.4/1 (double with 1/4 shot and 1.4/1 shot pays 2/1). The 1.4/1 (to total win+place stakes) to only be placed is getting you nowhere and would be better invested on another single on another horse in the race.
To win the race the (win+place) double is 1/4 to make the race and 9.8/1 (to total win+place stakes) to actually win the race  (double with 1/4 shot to make race and 9.8/1 shot to win the race pays 12.5/1) which is half the 20/1 you took 3 months before. If it is longer than this on the day your whole bet was bad value and you may as well have waited and bet on the day without the risk of losing your stake.

If you took win singles at 20/1 for two horses in the race there is a higher probability that one of your two horses will turn up on the day to represent you compared to just one horse with reduced odds to win the race due to place place part dragging it down (12.5/1 from 20/1) and measly place part (2/1) to the each way bet.

Another way to look at it is i keep my accounts open for longer, some even aren't even on the radar. I can see where your coming from though now and i will one year maybe just place win bets. I have read your post and dug out my portfolio from a couple years ago and worked it out as if every bet was a win only bet to the same stakes i.e instead of 20 each way they were all 40 win bets and the tenner each way ones were 20 win bets. I missed the winner in all but:
Neptune (Windsor Park £12.50ew @20/1 becomes £25 win Parlour Games £20ew @ 10/1 becomes a £40 loss) =525 - total stakes of 200 = 325
QMCC (Dodging Bullets £20ew @ 12/1 becomes a £40 win and my Special Tiara £15ew @ 25/1 becomes a loss) =520 - total stakes of 175 =345
Potato (Martello Tower £12.50ew @ 20/1 becomes a £25 win and my £30ew on No More Heroes becomes a loss) =525 - total stakes of 255 = 270 giving a total profit from winning races of 940. But seeing as my total investment for that years fez was 1100 i am now at a loss.

How i managed to scrape a profit was fluky but i did, the place parts really paid dividends in 2015, on the Thurs i was convinced i was onto a rare losing fez antepost wies till Martello did the business and whats more i was there that year too courtesy of good old friend of mine and betfair's vip tent.

I never mix my day of race bets with my antepost and vise versa. If there is a horse i am waiting on a price for, it doesn't get included when working out antepost portfolios.

So we have the 20/1 shot is say 1/4 to get there on the day with the odds of the second leg of the antepost each way double as follows

9.8/1 to win the race and 1.4/1 to place but not win

This is compared to the second leg of a single bet (not each way) giving 15.8/1 to just win the race.

Each to their own method but placing a second win bet on another horse in the same race gives a higher chance of having a runner therefore a return on the day and to a much larger amount than waiting for a 1.4/1 shot to come in from an each way bet.

Another factor is those horses who are most likely to win the non handicap races will never be much of an each way price and remain in single figures.

In these races due to the strength of the fav, horses around the 20/1 price may not have as much chance to shorten to below the break even 15.8/1 for an antepost single to win the race.
It is even less likely the horse will shorten to below the break even 9.8/1 for an antepost each way bet to win the race. If the horse wins at 12/1 it is better  odds than your each way bet of 9.8/1 so you have bad value on the day for the horse winning. The rest of your value was built into having small odds for your horse being placed only.
12/1 is however a shorter price than the 15.8/1 for an antepost single bet so you had good value on the day for your antepost single if it wins but lose all your stake if it loses (each way you got small odds for this).

So having an antepost each way bet on the Graded races with stronger favourites where outsiders are less likely to shorten by a large amount is more likely to give you bad value on the day if your horse wins the race than an antepost single would.

The payback is you may win small odds with a place for the antepost each way bet.

I would prefer 2 singles on 2 horses with a higher probability of having one of them turn up on the day and having a higher chance of having better value on the day for them winning the race compared to the each way bet on one horse. I will happily forego the scraps returned for the horse being placed in the search for higher gains and value from winning singles.

Nice portfolio SEATHESTARS great fun having so much interest in a wide range of races at the Festival. Like kids in a sweetie shop with all the high quality fayre that week.

Yeah eric last years was even better, Sprinter @25/1 is a well known one on here especially after baldy bet tried to welch on the bet and pay out at only 16/1, soon got that sorted though thanks to someone on here.

Love the Cheltenham fez, it is unique in that it is the only festival of the year with open Ante-post markets for the entire year. All that is needed is a love for the sport and a small amount of knowledge of how a market will/might react for different outcomes, news bulletins etc. There is so many markets bookies often make mistakes or forget about one or other. There is always a stand out almost on a weekly basis, it's the ability to spot them of the ones most likely to be aimed at the race your betting for and pressing the fire button. The advent of the any race markets were at the time excellent as quite often bookies would shorten after a horse won but forget that market till much later on also but not so much now in fact the any race markets are getting 'too full'. Makes me angry when i miss a price, when that happens i make an informed decision, bet it at the shorter odds but only if usually if i think it will still be much shorter on the day or wait till nearer the day and look out for any ricks in the day of race markets. Yanworth is a perfect example of this, 10/1 for ages before Xmas i had it noted down to back it, i went in on oddschecker on 'payday' to back it only to find 11/2. I still backed it cos reading the articles around Faugheen etc not turning up being a live possibility he'll surely be a short fav at around the 5/2 - 3/1sp area in a 12-15 runner field should they not go. If they do go, Yanworth is a 7/2-9/2 poke in what likely will be a 7-10 runner C'hurdle

I place plenty of antepost bets e/w myself. Nothing worse than spotting a horse that is 20/1 and see it be backed all the way down to favouritism only to finish second or third imo. I record all my bets and have been more profitable backing them e/w than win only overall.

For example last year I was on Yanworth and More Of That from 20/1 all the way down to 8/1 both ew. Both yielded a decent profit even though they lost. L'Ami Serge and Meausreofmydreams were two others I can recall that were the same.

Dont think there is a right or wrong tbh.

i dont back each way on singles whatever the price ,but i always stick an each way acca on 4 or 5 festival races usually nearer the start on non runner no bet ,and have had some decent returns on just the place side of the bet ,had 1 winner and 3 places in a £20 each way acca  a few years back and it returned near £2k addmitedly biggish prices ,of course you are hoping for the magical 4 winners but the 4 places are a nice consolation and not impossible ,will start a chelt each way acca t thread nearer the festival ! give us something to dream about !

Suppose it is a personal thing.

I would prefer not to wait say 3 months for the race with the odds of not getting there and the place part of the bet both built in to the price dragging my true win odds down at the start of those 3 months to only half the odds I took, 9.8/1 for my 20/1 shot (compared to 15.8/1 if I just placed a single at 20/1). Admittedly these true odds will increase back up to the price with place built in, 12.5/1 for my 20/1 shot (and single back up to from 15.8/1 to 20/1), on day of race. If the horse wins at over 12.5/1, say 16/1, I will have bad value for my horse winning the race just so I can have a safety net of 2/1 for the place on the day (which was odds of 1.4/1 when I first placed the each way bet due to odds of not making race). Placing an antepost single means I get the full 20/1 on the day when it might start at 16/1 meaning I have good value.

I dont want to lose that 7.5 units for my horse winning the race which is good value bet to instead take 3.5 units less for my horse winning the race which is a bad value bet to also have a 2 unit profit if he is placed but doesnt win. Thinking positive gives you value imo. Thinking negative, that it might be only placed, can drag your price down for winning the race to bad value if it doesnt shorten a lot come the day.

Last para should say..

I dont want to lose that 7.5 units (12.5/1 instead of 20/1) for my horse winning the race to trade it in for 2 units to place but not win.

If it starts at 16/1 and wins the e/w bet (12.5/1) is bad value but the single bet (20/1) is good value. Thinking positive gives you more value imo. Thinking negative, that it might be only placed, can drag your price down for winning the race, to bad value if it doesnt shorten a lot come the day.
Getting a place but not winning rewards you with say 2 units for the e/w bet instead of the 7.5 extra you get for just a single if it wins.