Supreme Novices Hurdle 2017

why are people banging on about melon's inexperience?

it's a novice hurdle for crying out loud. it's not like he's going up against horses that have run 30 times. they're ALL inexperienced.

can someone name me a horse that failed in the supreme due to a lack of experience? or any other novice hurdle race at the festival?

Not saying he is going to fail, it is that he has shot to the top of the market after one run in a maiden.  Previous favourites in this race had solid graded novice hurdle form and/or solid graded bumper form.

I'd say inexperience cost Sprinter Sacre the Supreme - he was absolutely tanking like the best horse in the race but was green/weak in the finish

Tracked leaders, led just before 3 out, joined 2 out but still going strongly, ridden when hit last, immediately headed and faded

Al Ferof's superior stamina and toughness won him that race.

I've always wondered how good Spirit Son might've been? It's often forgetten Geraghty opted to ride him over Sprinter that day.

11 of the last 13 winners had run in at least 4 hurdles, just saying...

Perfect example wellchief.

I think there have been plenty of Supremes where horses that have been beaten, have gone on to be the best horse from the race, thus proving inexperience cost them that day.

Clearly Melon's inexperience is a huge factor. Else more trainers would wrap their stable stars in cotton wool and just run them here.

Just on that above stat

11 of the last 13 winners had run in at least 4 hurdles

I thought to myself, there isn't that many in this years field that have ran 4 times. So i've had a look

Leaving out them priced 300+ on here, below is:

NAME - NO. OF HDL STARTS - TOP PRICE CURRENTLY ON ODDS-CHECKER


River Wylde has ran 3 hdls races 12/1
Pingshou 3 - 50/1
Peter the Mayo Man 7 - 33/1
Movewiththetimes 4 - 9/1
Moon Racer 2 - 6/1
Melon 1 - 3/1
Labaik 5 50/1 (inc the 2 refusals)
High Bridge 3 16/1
Glaring 2 66/1
Elgin 4 - 50/1
Crack Mome 2 - 16/1
Cilaos Emery 2 - 20/1
Capital Force 4 - 66/1 (all maiden hdls and cracked his duck at the 4th attempt) 66/1 surely too big is he aimed here
Bunk Off Early 2 - 7/1
Beyond Conceit 2 - 25/1
Ballyandy 4 - 5/1


Basically i'm surprised and it has made me have two looks at one that is a very big price. Capital Force, is he being aimed here does anyone know? Ok only 4 maiden hdls runs but in each of them starts it does look progressive to me. Ok might not be anywhere near the class to be even in this race but at the price it don't cost much to find out. After all i've been thinking for at least the last couple months we could easily be in for one or two shock results in these novice grade 1s at the fez.

what's the saying, lies, damn lies and statistics?

the day I start caring about how many starts a horse has had over hurdles feel free to shoot me

Given Sprinter had already had 3 hurdle runs, and won two bumpers, I don't buy that.

For me, as I predicted before the race I hasten to add, McCoy being on board was to blame for Sprinter Sacre getting beat. He and Tizzard on Cue Card got racing way to early and cut each others throats. Think subsequent events show the pair of them should have finished way ahead of the front two that day.

Sprinter was very keen as a novice hurdler who had trouble settling.

All his races were mickey mouse ones before the Supreme, with this last two being 2/9 and 30/100 SP's. His defeat to Frascati Park showed how green he was and doubt he would have learnt anything off the following two runs.

I'd say without doubt be didn't have the proper racing experience and he was looked after by McCoy on the run in; All Ferof was much more battle hardened having ran in the Bumper and in much higher standard hurdle races

I don't use stats as religiously as some might, in fact 90% of the time i don't bother looking at all, especially if there is a very good chance that it might be broken ie no horse had ever regained the blue riband event but no one told Kauto Star.

However, 11/13 supremes? I am guessing here, but something tells me that most Supremes shape up quite like this one, with the maj' of horses entered have had less than 4 starts

That's why i thought it worth a 2nd look.

just because sprinter sacre failed due to inexperience (if that was even the case) doesn't mean melon is going to....

Anyways i've had a couple pieces of copper on Capital Force on here at 120's. Just in case i'm right

I'm not wedded to the stats and some of them don't bear much scrutiny but 11-13 with 4+ hurdle starts tells me that experience is important.

Mullins won the Neptune with Fiveforthree after only one hurdle start but he'd finished 5th in the Champion Bunper the year before.

Horses that started their career on the flat don't have a great recent record either - that could be down to the ground being at its slowest on the first day.

None of this means Melon can't win but the price is skinny enough given the potential negatives - as Budd states above, we all develop and stand or fall by our own methods, if Melon gets smashed in to 11/10 and wins by 8 lengths, I'll live with it and move on to the Arkle.

It's quite possible sometimes to eliminate every horse in a particular race by applying the stats blind, so ultimately you have to exercise your own judgement. I'm personally not comfortable with the idea of backing Melon at his current price based on the visual impression of his maiden hurdle and the stable vibes.

I accept plenty will be and they may well be right.

STS how many you backed in this now must half the field? Anyway hope you have good week enjoy.

I would have given High Bridge a big shout but he's being ridden by the owner's inexperienced son which is a sickener. He's won a few weak races on the horse but his style over the hurdles is awkward and he hasn't the experience to hold and keep a position so will go the long way round. Also doesn't receive his normal 7lb claim. It's John Ferguson's call who rides his horse but I don't think he's doing right by the animal.

Wouldnt rule out Ruby riding Let's Dance just yet!

If he jumps off Melon, I agree it will be a huge negative. Its one of the main reasons for fancying the horse

Catch
Thought Mullins said somewhere that LD was an improver for stepping up?
I have been thinking Neptune was more likely.

Yeah he did mate. But wouldn't be the first time he said one thing and did another would it?!

Very true

the fact that he's left 10 in suggests plans are far from finalised.

Though you'd expect him to run three or four I suppose.

Can't win a mares novice after running in the Supreme

Melon, Bunk off Early, Cilaos Emery will be the 3 WPM runs in the Supreme imho. If there is one more it will be a 100/1 poke to give an apprentice a nice ride out, possibly try to make the running etc.

Crack mome is a much more likely runner than Cilaos Emery according to betfair

Aurgh ffs haha i meant to write crack mome can you believe that


My heads all over the place, it's getting giddier by the day

Whilst you are all making love to Melon and Neon Wolf you missed River Wylde who WINS.

Melon is over-rated. Even the official handicapper has jumped on the bandwagon by having him 5lb clear of the rest on the basis of a maiden hurdle that hasn’t worked out. If he was that good he’d be owned by Ricci. I’m not stupid enough to say he can’t win but the case rests on him being the best of Willie’s in what is perceived to be a weaker than average renewal so he’s not for me at the price.
Moon Racer is quicker than Ballyandy but nearly twice the price on here which would look a good bet if he runs but I won’t take the risk. In any case Moon Racer, Ballyandy and Movewiththetimes look too closely matched for comfort and I don’t think they’re all superstars so I’ll avoid all three.
Neon Wolf is another risky proposition as I see him as a Neptune horse. If he’s declared I’d back him.
River Wylde is progressive and the best of Nicky’s. I would consider him EW.
I’d rule out the other Mullins horses unless Ruby makes a late decision to ride one of them.
The only other one that catches my eye is High Bridge. He finished four and a half lengths behind Ballyandy in last year’s bumper after travelling better but fading in the final furlong. It could be argued he wasn’t enamoured by the hill but there is another possible explanation. John Ferguson operated a policy of giving his horses a long break before Cheltenham. Aside from his Fred Winter horses who had to run to qualify, he sent ten horses to Cheltenham without any having run that year. All had been off the track for three to five months. I think this policy backfired as none were placed and there was a pattern of his horses running well then having no extra up the hill. I think he left them short. The plan might work for trainers with a big hill to work with but Ferguson had the flat lands of Newmarket.
This year High Bridge has had a better preparation with three evenly spaced races and he remains unexposed. He has a good pedigree with a mix of speed and stamina. As I’ve said before, the fly in the ointment is the claiming jockey who can’t claim but at least he knows the horse well having won on him four times, and the horse doesn’t look complicated. The jockey booking is what it is and the price reflects that. In an interview posted on Pauling’s twitter account yesterday he says he took High Bridge to Lambourn (assume Seven Barrows) for a day out and he did a special piece of work. I take him at his word as he’s said that prior to a successful handicap coup in the past and I think he’s worth an EW bet. I'd be more confident with a professional on board.

Autocue.

A few points. Over rated by who? By the handicapper certainly.. but by Willie Mullins and Ruby Walsh? I guess they know alot more than we do.

Rich Ricci tried to buy him in the summer and the current owners turned him down. Id been told that back in September (which was the reason I backed him), and he openly admitted it at one of the Preview Nights.

Mullins can afford to be bullish given his recent record in the race. Personally, I think all he can be is bullish. Melon has won a Maiden against nothing and if he weren't bullish he would be what??? If he is bullish and it get's beat then so what, favorites get turned over all the time in this

Can only beat the horses they race against.

"Can only beat the horses they race against"

Very true, however, connections could have run Melon in the Deloitte two weeks later against Bacardys (Neptune), Bunk Off Early, Brelade, Chateau Conti and Bravissimmo all trained by Mullins and some of these are in the Supreme betting, if connections were bullish about him.

Unless Melon is backed off-the-board on race day there is plenty of value elsewhere; if backed, one could initiate a treble with Douvan and Altior perhaps.

you can safely put douvan and altior in a treble with any other runner at the meeting outside of their races...

wishful thinking for all of the contenders to run in a recognised trial, that ship sailed about 20 years ago when the race planning committee started messing with the fixtures and best mate typified the 'new' style of pre-festival training

Hi CCM, Mullins obviously has a good network in France. If Melon had looked to be the same calibre as others they've brought across, Ricci would have bought him direct off the French owners. I take your point he tried to buy it later so presumably the horse proved better than first thought, but all I've heard or read Willie say is that he's his best hope for the race, no comparisons with his previous winners. In my opinion he's been over-rated by the handicapper (who talks a good game but sometimes veers off into rating horses on potential) and those who have backed him into favourite, assuming he's not a false favourite bookies' benefit. You're on at better odds so fair play to you but would you seriously come in fresh and back him now?

Hi Autocue. I don't think you can simply say that if Melon was any good, RR would have had him TBH! If that was the case he would have every single good ex French horse in training surely?!

RR has said a few times he's been outbid lately. There seem to be a few owners who will take him on now. It's also not an exact science. As good as Willie, Harold Kirk etc are, they can't get it right all the time. Nobody probably knew Melon was quite this good until they had him. I also think Willie will be keen to give other owners in the yard top horses as well. RR might most important but it's not healthy to have all your eggs in one basket.

I certainly wouldn't back him now, but I think it looks a fairly average renewal and I really like Bunk Off Early. Travelled brilliantly last time, and finished second in a decent Grade 1 despite being keen. The drop back to 2m on better ground will surely help him a lot. So if Ruby favours Melon over a horse who may well start third fav and has decent form in the book, I think that will be very telling.

Couldn't agree more about his assesment by Phil Smith though. You'd imagine he will be make a 153 horse easy enough in time, but to have that already and be 5lb clear of the field on what he's achieved is completely bonkers. Might have to give him 170 if he destroys them!

There aint no way i would back him now if i hadn't already done so. I take your point in it possibly being a false fav'. Wouldn't take much for a manipulation of the market to occur on here soon after his last run, thus then causing bookmakers to follow by always having to be shorter than exchange price (for unknown reasons other than they are not bookmakers no more but mere accountants) thus ensuring the wheelbarrow effect.

Seeing as Cheltenham markets are the strongest betting heats seen anywhere in the world, it will be very interesting to see what exactly happens to Melon's price when they open up on course!


On your point on WPM's French connections, i heard on ATR a few days ago that didn't they also have the chance to purchase Neon Wolf? In fact he was offered to them and they turned him down i think

^
Yes, Patrick won a PTP on him and didn't fancy him I believe.

Could it be Closutton had asked for a "special" home gallop prior to consideration to purchase but told to sling their hook? I think Neon Wolf is the real deal probably best of the new recruits to hurdling. Could possibly be Champion Hurdle bound 2018.

^the new Melodic Rendezvous?

Where's the hype? zzzzzzz

Neon Wolf CH bound? They've said he's going to make a 3m Chaser.

Melon is smashing BOE at home hence the supreme confidence behind it from the yard. Neon Wold is the only they fear but he's Neptune bound so the coast is clear to get the week off to a great start at a nice price

BREAKING: David Pipe reveals Moon Racer will line up for the Champion Hurdle at Cheltenham on Tuesday

This race does not take much winning now with the scratching of Moon Racer, the horse with the best form; the next best horse is Ballyandy, and I hope he wins for connections given his superior early form.

I might have my wish to lay Melon at odds-on for a place soon.

I left Melon alone at all the fancy prices because all along I've been convinced that Moon Racer would smash this

Luckily the bigger bets late on have been NRNB but disappointed he is going CH.(although in some ways it's nice to see the owners get their wish)

We only know Melon as a 'hype' horse and we've only seen him once on a racecourse. But if Ruby rides (as we assume he will) then we can be sure that this horse is probably a decent animal who will go on to better things. 

Min was the Mullins/Ruby horse last year, but he did finish 2nd and only beaten by Altior who in hindsight looks superb.

River Wylde for Henderson is probably also a decent enough type and gone under the radar a little, but I think plenty of money will come for these two over the next few days.

They are certainly the two trainers to follow in this race Shrews.

Over the past 6 years, of the 18 1st, 2nd and 3rd's; 12 of them were Henderson or Mullins runners (66%).

Backing one of theirs ew is usually a good shout to get your money back at least.

Whew. Backed Moon racer NRNB so can start again now. Won't get the money until the overnight though as he is still in the supreme at the 5 day.

Moon Racer in the Champion Hurdle is the worst 10/1 shot I have ever seen

Neon Wolf now "more than likely" to run in Neptune with ground drying and Finian's Oscar out according to Harry Fry. From Matt Chapman

Moon racer will win the champion so great call.

River Wylde now down to 15/2 on the RP site. I am still hopeful of my Nic de Boinville top jockey bet with River Wylde, Altior and Might Bite in the first 2 days and plenty of others no doubt as plans are finalized.

Moveitwiththetimes is a non runner

Gutted Premier, gave that a right good chance, get money back but no consolation

another one bites the dust, only backed it yesterday but it was shortening nicely, the race has been carved to bits now

Shame they didn't leave Charlie Parcs in. JP has nothing now.

Yep ^ should have waited

same for Defi de Seuil, it could have won both this and the Triumph

Defi would win Gold Cup as well!!

Regards Charli Parcs (CP): I too had CP for the Supreme but I think Hendo reckoned the extra 3 days would help CP enormously post the fall;I hope Ballyandy can do the business here for me now.

shame had a little 33/1 movewiththetimes...this has really cut up badly now

wonder if anyone has been put off antepost for life this national hunt season... so many falling by the wayside

95% of mine have been nrnb. Last year Faugheen being out was a sickner but when Annie switched it wiped out so many bets as I had her in loads of multiples in the mares, so learnt my lesson and waited for nrnb.

I've only put one main bet on before nrnb this year and that was for VVM in the Stayers and that's down!

I had a preseason lucky on Thistlecrack 8/1, Beveur Dair 14/1 JLT, Douvan Evs and Alpha Des 12/1. Thought I was sitting on a monster bet up until a month ago!!!

I was put off it last year with the Vautour debacle. This year for the first time in 20 years I did not place a £ until NRNB kicked in. And I am very very grateful for that.

Think nrnb was freely available for gold cup month's in advance with a few books last year,Budd could probably help me with that one and if he can't he knows a man who can STS

Ever since the 4th day was added the books have slowly but surely been getting quicker at instigating the nrnb concession or introducing an any race market. One was built on the exchange for the first time this year.
I presume that it depends on the amount of business antepost wise they get and who it is.
My hunch is that there will be one or two more outfits introducing a win at the festival style market next year. It is a popular market. B365 priced up only maybe 5 last year in one, this year they went full on.
Ever since the 4th day, antepost demand has fell through the floor!
Was surprised how many were only 1/5th this year tho, I put that down to results from last year where most went the punters fav. I fear this won't!

last 2 to 3 years has slowed down any urge to back your judgement too soon .. 
too many white stuff out there .. re horses .. wish trainers just said nothing at all ..
lets dance . 6to 1  .in wrong race now  ...   evens . for the other .. says a lot ..?

lewisham ranger 12 Mar 17 17:42
wonder if anyone has been put off antepost for life this national hunt season... so many falling by the wayside

I don't think anyone is put off by horses falling by the wayside, that's the nature of the game. People are put off by the shyte prices and trainers who can't give a straight answer. Fair enough, if you want to keep your options open just say that. Don't say a horse is being aimed at one race all season then switch it at the last minute. And the bookies are a disgrace. Betfair had 9 horses under 8/1 for the Neptune in February.

I've said it before & I'll say it again. AP the way we all knew it is dead. In 2015 this time of Chelts I had about 20 AP wagers, last year about 15, this year I have 6 & most of those are nrnb. The prices are terrible. I can see a time coming wherewe will only back on the Hcaps - As we will get a decent price. Look at Melon (3/1) come on ffs!!!! Bless up.

seems to be dying yeah

surely it's better to back say a golfer you fancy for a major, say months beforehand than a horse (ok I understand the logic that you're not going to get a massive value price like you could do with horse racing)

99 percent of them these days don't seem to even turn up!

elgin... I know he's held by one or two of these on form but seems a decent each-way punt... 25-1 seems too big.

Elgin is massively overpriced.

Form says basically he's the same horse as River Wylde-look at the prices.

Not saying he's going to win but 25/1 ew is very fair indeed.

An absolute dog that I might throw a fiver on @ 50/1 is Labaik.

Refused to race in two of this his last three starts, and barely set off last time, but if (and that's a big if) he is in the mood, he looks to have loads of ability.  He ran well against Mick Jazz (when he never nearly set off), and Mick Jazz has since beat Cialos Emery.  In that race, Labaik showed loads of heart to get up, so not sure where the throwing hissy fits at the start come from.

With Skybet's offer of money back if you lose, if he doesn't set off you get your money back as a free bet, and if he does set off, I think he is much better than a 50/1 poke.

^
so does Elliott, he was bigging up the horses's ability at the Betfair preview night.

well my good prices on neon wolf nrnb are up in puff of smoke so it's all guns blazing on the back up, beyond conceit who is one of the rare animals who won a decent race whilst pulling like a train throughout, glad they have fehilly on board...the stats say river wylde

Am with you Gordon , just love the horse , not sure about ' decent race ' but he jumps , stays and will improve on the track  IF  he settles .

Mar 13, 2017 -- 7:11AM, Big Black Cat wrote:

Elgin is massively overpriced.Form says basically he's the same horse as River Wylde-look at the prices.Not saying he's going to win but 25/1 ew is very fair indeed.

Same horse? River Wylde cruised up to him and then romped past him and had more left in the tank. As I said on here when he was 17.0, I think River Wylde wins, I'd be amazed if Elgin did.

With the defections of Neon Wolf and Moon Racer and injury to Movewiththetimes, 3 fancied runners and market leaders, this race is a less difficult to win; I hope Ballyandy or River Wylde can do it but not discounting Mullins either hopefully not Melon given his inadequate form.

Were you riding River Wylde?  How much do you know he had left?  How do you know he wasn't going easy on Elgin?

I don't really expect Elgin to win either, but strictly on the book he was giving him 3lb and lost by 3.5L.

I was just saying that one horse is 25/1 and another is in single figures and based on the result when they last ran, Elgin is overpriced.

hopefully not Melon given his inadequate form.

why have you got something against him because his form isn't as good as you'd hope?

HOPE YOU ALL FOLLOWED

wd chief great start for ya

well done mate - you deserve it!!  I kept faith with ruby.

Very well done Wellcheif

Cheers lads.

Just put a bit on Mick Jazz for the County who ties in very well with him.  I think Cilaos Emery was fifth then as well, and Mick Jazz beat him last time, so 142 in the County looks a good mark now.

Very well done! What a smart horse conserving all his energy just for this race.

WELL DONE Wellchief, I couldn't have backed that one

Well in well chief. I remember someone stuck it up. When it flew up the hill i was wondering who put it up.

Great shout wellchief, I went to back it IR but was single figures straight away so left it. Wish I had bookies to attack the offers with as fancied this one too.

Good to note that Melon smashed the rest of them as well.

For an outsider he was well tipped up, Elliott himself on the Betfair preview raved about him....I ignored him

WD Chief...have a good drink on the back of that one

Took until page 10 for the (pretty easy) winner to get a mention but great shout WC.

Unlucky for you Duffy that I had Labaik, Jack Kennedy and Gordon Elliot in the Telegraph fantasy league - your crown is under threat my son

Thanks lads, shame I only had buttons on him.  I didn't watch the preview night so I'm taking the credit myself

Well done to all who had the winner of that. They both pulled well clear of the rest and he looks like a decent sort. Jack Kennedy, what a ride for a 17yo, and of course what faith in a 17yo by Gordon Elliott.

The next Tony McCoy!

Buttons count, especially when you multiply them by 50. Vast majority lost, and some of the better fools such as me lost before the event started !

Chief

I don't mind you setting the pace in the telegraph league, I'm a proven stayer son, been there done that...marathon not a sprint

Top stuff Well Chief couldnt back it with counterfeit but sound reasoning well done

amazing chief been a real rat all year but always had it there...i have to say this is the weakest renewal i can remember since mullins won with an equal rat at big odds years ago...anyway well done for finding him i gave up after his last run tbh but the race did stink for an upset and you found him lovely stuff...singlefarmpayment almost made me get the rope out today hey ho

Keep it going Harry,plenty of races left mate.

Nice one Chief.

David Pipe tweeted all is OK with Moon Racer. He just made a mistake at the wrong time and Scu protected him.

Looking back now he was well out of his depth. I think he would have been placed in the Supreme, considering where Ballyandy finished and the troubled run he had.

Doubt he'd of matched the winner though.

wildmanfromborneo
13 Mar 17 14:37
Joined: 30 Nov 10
| Topic/replies: 21,246 | Blogger: wildmanfromborneo's blog
We get a chance to combine two theories of mine in the first race tomorrow.

Labaik is an out an out mule.
He has failed to start in his last three races,he technically started in Naas last time but was a long way back,its what happened after he finally deigned to race that's important.
He appeared to me to makeup a phenomenal amount of ground.
We know he has loads of ability but the start is a huge problem.
Normally that would be that,no bet and definitely not an each way wager.

This race however is different,its the first race of the festival.
I'm fairly sure that if Labaik fails to start Paddy Power will return your stake.

For these reasons I'm backing Labaik each way,I'm also backing him in small stakes ( the refund could be for 50 quid or less ) nothing stopping you getting a pal to shove a score each way for you and so on.

wellchief
13 Mar 17 17:14
Joined: 17 Dec 09
| Topic/replies: 3,267 | Blogger: wellchief's blog
An absolute dog that I might throw a fiver on @ 50/1 is Labaik.

Refused to race in two of this his last three starts, and barely set off last time, but if (and that's a big if) he is in the mood, he looks to have loads of ability.  He ran well against Mick Jazz (when he never nearly set off), and Mick Jazz has since beat Cialos Emery.  In that race, Labaik showed loads of heart to get up, so not sure where the throwing hissy fits at the start come from.

With Skybet's offer of money back if you lose, if he doesn't set off you get your money back as a free bet, and if he does set off, I think he is much better than a 50/1 poke.

Labaik is going to be an interesting horse going forward from a betting point of view, he's going to be far more supported obviously because he's very good, I wonder how keen the generous books will be to refund bets if he doesn't start in future when they've got far more in the satchels for him.