Cheltenham Festival
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tom segal puts up his ante post champion hurdle tip in tuesdays post , with the uncertainty over faugheen and annie power the field looks a little thin, suggestions as to who he will put up and why !
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He will declare his undying love for Annie Power, then say with question marks over AP & Faugheen that Petit Mouchoir is best value at 9/1. He will mention that Petit Mouchoir was travelling very strongly in the Fighting Fifth before falling and would have likely won, which is an opinion reinforced by an emphatic win in the Ryanair Hurdle.
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It'd not surprise me if Pricewise has gone for Petit Mouchoir because his price has already shortened from 11.5 to 9.4 here over the last two days.
I wish any tipster like Tom Segal would put his money where his mouth is, and not receive a hand-out from any betting entity - I just detest tipsters who are parasites of the betting industry. If my recollection is correct some years ago after an investigation by a broadsheet a handful of trainers were "gifted" betting accounts by some members of the betting industry too, how absurd was that? It was an unhealthy conflict of interest. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Not a fan of this. It's early Jan, and us small stake punters need more time to chuck more fivers at races. I suspect the guy keeps the bookies happy. Everything across the board will go blue. The guy will even pick 2 out.
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Petit or Brain Power
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From what I've heard him say on media, it surely will be BRAIN POWER?
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Brain Power for me , he's been told by bookmakers to select it ...
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I don't mind, he backs winners and i backed him like one or two on here at 25/1!
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think he willput up brain power,some saying brain power only a handicapper but he was pitched into some grade 1 novice hurdles last year and the one in ireland which he was 3rd behind dont touch it and petit mouchir with yorkhill behind was a cracking effort ,looking at reruns of the race brain power was absolutly tanking along 2 out and must have traded low in running on here between the last 2 only to be worried out of it at the last ,hendo has said he has "grown up " this year .
the 2 handicaps he won this season were very competetive fast run affairs travelled like a dream and he won both very well in the style of a much improved horse, he won the ascot race off a mark of 149 i expect him to be raised to between 7-10 pound which puts him in the mix ,20s now a fair price imo | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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oddschecker 16s now some 18s ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
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I take it he went for Brain Power?
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Who cares what he went for. How can anyone take notice of a tipster who is curtailed by the price of a horse. In other words if he thinks an even money favourite is a certainty, he still tips a 10/1 shot to beat it.
What a load of tripe. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Me, or I wouldn't have asked. I don't follow him, I was just curious.
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Oh and of course you as well, or you wouldn't be reading this thread.
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not sure he has put up brain power fab! nothing confirmed yet but plenty of blue on oddschecker for it
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Thanks Foyles.......and apologies mincer for my reply, I don't normally reply like that.
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Pricewise's ante-post tips for last year's Festival:
CH - Arctic Fire @ 10/1 (1pt ew) WH - Vroum Vroum Mag @ 10/1 (1pt w) GC - Road To Riches @ 16/1 (1pt ew) CC - Simonsig @ 14/1 (1pt ew) RC - Champagne West @ 25/1 (1pt w) RC - Valseur Lido @ 14/1 (1pt w) SN - Silver Concorde @ 33/1 (1pt ew) NP - Shantou Village @ 16/1 (1pt w) AR - The Game Changer @ 40/1 (1pt ew) RS - Vyta Du Roc @ 33/1 (1pt ew) TH - Lets Dance @ 16/1 (1pt w) TH - Sceau Royal @ 14/1 (1pt w) Buyers beware! | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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bit harsh Roger, he has had some decent antipost punts over the years...
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superb story is his pick
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thanks mac!
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I'm not convinced on Superb Story's comeback run, but Skelton has 3 good horses in SS, Chtibello and North Hill Harvey, and if SS is stables pick for Champion then they may think they have sufficient improvement in the locker to move into this race. I took some 200/1 bits and pieces for Champion after his Galway race, as I thought he travelled well then had a problem, and if they got him back he was a lively one for the Champion.
At the same time it increases the chances that North Hill Harvey will take a stab at the County. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Surely the significant part is the table showing half of the last 10 winners did not shorten from their January ante-post price (two weren't quoted and none were as big as Superb Story at 25/1).
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Thanks for posting that, Ramruma.
To be honest for me the only one of those you'd feel you'd missed out on if backing on the day as opposed to in January would be Hurricane Fly in 2013. I don't think the premium for Faugheen, Hurricane Fly in 2011 and Rock on Ruby is too much to pay for the advantage of having a guaranteed runner on the day. I bet most - if not all- of 'em were available at a bigger price than SP on the morning of the race too. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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I'm not surprised by the above table. The Champion Hdl is a race full of seasoned grade 1 performers, thus easier for a market to be formed around opinion based on a runner's past form. Wonder if the other 4 championship races have similar tables, i would be willing to bet they do. The markets rarely move on the 4 championship races from January onwards other than on injury's and/or additions. This is why bookmakers can quite often afford to offer seemingly to good to be true offers in the days leading up to them. I.e badbrokes. Some are decent, but some with some knowledge of how the market has acted over the 6 months can be saw through quite easily
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