Cheltenham Festival
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04 Jan 17
10:19
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Date Joined:
04 Oct 09
Really like this recruit from the Nichols stable and have taken some 25/1 for the Supreme. I am wondering if the Tolworth is very much the plan and if anyone else thinks that Finians Oscar who is also engaged in a 2m5f race at Wincanton on the same day is more likely to run there. I have also taken some 20s for the Neptune that horse and 12s any for bit of insurance.
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No one?
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I'll bite. In what appears to be one of the more open Supremes in recent years, Capitiaine is probably the one horse that is overpriced on all known form. His win from the front proved he jumps and stays well so he could well be hard to peg back if given the lead on the day. If he wins on Saturday then he will definitely shorten, possibly into second favourite. It has been a while since Nicholls has been overly competitive in this race but this could be a live chance. He also won the Tolworth the year Noland went on to festival glory.
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Moon racer beat keep in line by 3.25L off level weights
Capitaine beat keep in line by 4.5L also giving him 3 lb Supreme novice hurdle Moon Racer 6/1 F Capitaine 25/1  Worth a little dabble ew at 25/1 I think. (Ps think that captain forez who was 2nd to capitaine will make a lovely chaser, a big scopey sort.) |
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@ 1/4 odds the place
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If only form reading was that simple maleuk
 I think the Ascot race was a really funny one, with the two NJH horses under performing and should probably be treated with caution. Capitaine plenty short enough for what he's achieved imo, and I agree with Harry, will be a weak Tolworth if he wins, for me. |
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I think it was a pretty decent race at Ascot cant catch me, and was a worthy winner. Not sure why you think the 2 NH horse both underperformed.
I agree it isn't always quite as simple as that, and moon racer has good form at Cheltenham. But the difference in the odds seem crazy. As that form line should not make Capitaine 25/1 if moon racer is the fav. |
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Just my own view mate, could well be wrong. The NJH horses were beaten so far out, I struggle to believe that was their true running.
Would you not be worried about the soft ground for Capitaine tomorrow? Didn't seem keen at Haydock, and if he doesn't win tomorrow, will he even make the Supreme? |
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Not really, I was at Ascot that day and backed the runner up. But when Capitaine went out to 10's I said to my mate that's a crazy price and nearly bet that too, but generally do 1 per race. Bit gutted I didn't. I thought he ran well, and has raced over 2m only so would think the supreme his more likely target, and the chelt hill I think will suit.
However time will tell, at 25/1 I think its worth a dabble, much shorter and I wouldn't bother, the price just appealed to me , so just over 6/1 a place too. |
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Yeah I was there myself.
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