Cheltenham Festival

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28 Dec 16 14:20
Date Joined: 17 Dec 09
| Topic/replies: 3,423 | Blogger: wellchief's blog
This race is starting to take shape now.  Bellshill looks a different animal once upped to 3m and two nice chasing performances this year; Coney Island only found Bellshill too good at Punchestown last year and a good winner of the Drinmore; Alpha Des Obeaux surely over a trip too short last time and back up to 3m tomorrow, Might Bite would have been a runaway winner of the Feltham but for his fall and Bleu Et Rouge came from a mile back before and looks a strong stayer and is 33/1 top price is huge imo.

Looking like a good race if these all get there sound.
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Report FOYLESWAR March 9, 2017 8:02 AM GMT
marychain the horse with the biggest heart ?^^^^^^^^^^^^ well there is one who comes to mind a tough little bugger who was classy over hurdles wouldnt have much to find on ratings , stays and has done nothing wrong over fences ,has plenty of expieriece and with top connections, not flasy but gets the job done , if that dont shout out to you then i will WHISPER  it  quietly !
Report impossible123 March 9, 2017 9:10 AM GMT
Whisper seems to have crept-in-under-the-radar because of his stablemate and fav Might Bite's well-publicised final fence Kempton mishap on Boxing Day; he stays the distance and he seems to go on good/soft ground too.
Report wellchief March 9, 2017 9:15 AM GMT
The thought of Whisper bombing out in two World Hurdles is enough to put me off backing him for the RSA.
Report shockster March 9, 2017 11:26 AM GMT
Agree Wellchief.  Whisper wins 2 over JLT C&D and they run him in RSA????
Report Can't Catch Me March 9, 2017 11:34 AM GMT
Agree, cant see what on earth they are thinking with Whisper, unless Davy has told them they can beat Yorkhill so no point even trying, but he certainly doesn't look an RSA horse to me.
Report buddeliea March 9, 2017 12:11 PM GMT
Yep, with you all,wrong race imo.
Report lewisham ranger March 9, 2017 12:30 PM GMT
looks a dire renewal. initially I was against might bite but now starting to come around to him.

think royal vacation is also solid although doesn't have the potential wow factor that the fav has, but as this is a grinders race he has a chance. His sire also has a magnificent record at producing festival winners which breeds more encouragement.

don't think this acapella borgeious or whatever it's called has any chance. probably won't even line up if the sun beats down as they realize it's got no hope on decent ground.
Report impossible123 March 9, 2017 12:49 PM GMT
Not a backer of Whisper (yet) but did he not win the Silver Cross Hurdle twice over 24f at Aintree? ADO is backable but for breaking blood vessel last time out.
Report DontBeSakhee March 9, 2017 5:16 PM GMT
Can't suss the race, and it's one I usually have a couple of plays in, this year not at all. Nothing is setting me alight. Hate to copy, but I am with everyone on Whisper, I backed for the JLT, as soon as Bet365 went NRNB, as that is what I'd run him in. Same with 007, can't have him in this, would be all over if in the JLT.
Report wellchief March 9, 2017 7:08 PM GMT
21 of the last 24 winners were novice hurdlers the previous season - pretty big stat for ADO and Whisper to overcome.  Same for Might Bite but he is so lightly raced, it might not be as important to him.

Just thinking of previous World Hurdle placed horses who have ran in this and lost: More of That, Grands Crus, Time for Rupert, Punchestowns; although Smad Place came to about an inch from it beating that trend.
Report seary March 9, 2017 11:15 PM GMT
Balko des flos looks very intresting...been left in after 6 days decs, so high chance its running here...5th in the albert bartlett last year...not run bad in graded company this season in soft ground bogs...just seen its 120s on here!!!! someone know something i dont???
Report DECALEC March 10, 2017 1:36 AM GMT
Report wellchief March 10, 2017 8:09 AM GMT
Seary, a week or so ago on this thread I put BDF up at 50/1 and 66/1 and have gone in a couple of times nrnb.

He's in the festival plate, but 66/1 nrnb is a stupid price for this imo
Report sageform March 10, 2017 8:37 AM GMT
Backed and laid Might Bite so a free bet on the favourite. Nothing else has really grabbed my attention but I have not seen many of the Irish staying novices. Shame the RSA is not before the NH chase as it used to be because if Might Bite wins easily, Premier Bond would start at a much shorter price than he is now. MB is the only horse to beat PB over fences.
Report shockster March 10, 2017 9:59 AM GMT
Pretty sure I read (in last couple of days) that Balko Des Flos would go JLT.  Sage - Nicky Henderson said in live podcast on Wednesday that Premier Bond being aimed at the Kim Muir and thought he had a good chance.
Report wellchief March 10, 2017 10:19 AM GMT
Cheers Shockster - that's the only one of his three entries that I haven't backed him nrnb for.  Personally think he'd be too slow for the JLT, and hard to see him ever reversing the form with Disko based on their last run, but there you go, I thought a step up in trip was needed.
Report shockster March 10, 2017 10:43 AM GMT
They could change their minds Wellchief?  They wouldn't be the first to would they?  Giggs have plenty entered in this.
Report charlieptl March 10, 2017 11:20 AM GMT
American goes NH Chase - just read that on another forum so not official but shortening and would make sense in light of what Harry Fry has said
Report Can't Catch Me March 10, 2017 11:29 AM GMT
B0llocks. Thought I had the NH Chase covered, but he will be a fly in the ointment.
Report charlieptl March 10, 2017 11:33 AM GMT
He may not even run CCM so I wouldn't be too downbeat about it.
Report Can't Catch Me March 10, 2017 11:33 AM GMT
Probably wants softer ground as well tbf.
Report marychain1 March 10, 2017 11:37 AM GMT
Has anyone heard anything about where Road to Respect or Vintage Clouds are likely to line up? RtR is interesting for this and VC could be said to be battle hardened after its last run in Open Handicap company. I also like 007. Form isn't the best on paper but you looking back at some of its runs could argue that it has a tendency to eyeball opponents an come out on top which is an admirable quality in any horse lining up in this race.
Report ReaseHeath March 10, 2017 11:39 AM GMT
Personally think he'd be better here because his jumping would be more likely to put some of the others under pressure.

More time for the opposition to get organised over the longer trip - although possibly a bigger field to offset that.

I've not bet him in either - be interesting to see who rides in the 4 miler.
Report ReaseHeath March 10, 2017 11:46 AM GMT
^ that was re American.

Noel Meade just been on ATR, mary Road to Respect could run in the RSA or one of the handicaps.

Does n't help much I'm afraid!
Report SEATHESTARS....NO1 March 10, 2017 12:26 PM GMT
Annoyed American runs in 4 miler, or not at all as backed him for the rsa however this may open up the very vague part of hills rules with their non runner insurance as backed him with them.

Rule states that free bet issued by 10am of the day the selection runs in race other than the one backed for, max free bet value £25

That's fair enough but

What happens when the race the horse is backed for is later than that of the selected race by connections


What happens when free bet issued, then later in the day (which may well happen with this horse due to ground conditions) it is a non runner thus triggering the nrnb element of the offer of which there is no upper limit of cash refund.

I have emailed their customer services dep't and got a reply that was even more confusing than their rules so i replied and am still awaiting response.
Report shockster March 10, 2017 1:23 PM GMT
I'd ring them up STS.  American could scupper my 4miler bets as had never accounted for him and he has talent.
Report impossible123 March 10, 2017 2:49 PM GMT
I think Fry has said American is very ground dependent - he needs it soft (or worse) - and decision to run will be made just before race day. I have not come across article which said he'd be going for the 4 miler.
Report SEATHESTARS....NO1 March 10, 2017 3:09 PM GMT
Got answer finally that i could understand.

It is total customer decision. Which ever method of placement (online, mobile or shop etc)

Free bets will be credited to customer by 10am of the day the race the selection runs in IF not the race it was originally backed for. If by 10am no free bet appears in customers account the customer can contact them via live chat IF bet was placed online/mobile etc. If bet was placed with retail, customer just needs to go to shop with original receipt and claim the free bet.

The free bet can be claimed at anytime during the Cheltenham festival, thus you may if you wish wait until AFTER the race has ran to which your selection was declared for which was NOT the race you originally backed for. Therefore if a non runner for that race a full refund will be given.


Free bets can be used on any sporting event within the sports markets but expire when the tapes go up for the Grand Annual ie the final race at the Cheltenham festival.
Report sageform March 10, 2017 3:25 PM GMT
Knowing my ante post luck, PB will be a non runner but it looks the obvious race for him. Full brother Ace High was not very sound but he was a good horse when right.
Report sageform March 10, 2017 3:30 PM GMT
PB is number 46 in the Kim Muir so might not get a run. That might tilt them towards the NH chase.
Report wellchief March 11, 2017 2:19 PM GMT
Could be quite a small field for this.  Previously backed Balko des Flos, but all betting and rumours say he is JLT bound, so time to back a different one before the race cuts up.

There are currently 11 entered trading at 100/1+ on here, so I think they can be classed as runners or no hopers, as can Genie in Abottle, as he is 4 miler bound.  Singlefarmpayment is handicap bound and there is no money wanting to back Marinero, so I assume he'll end up in a handicap.

Bellshill and American could easily end up in the 4 miler too.

Discounting all of those only leaves nine to choose from for me.  I couldn't have Whisper because I think he should be in the JLT and his World Hurdle runs don't give me any confidence; I can't back ADO because previous World Hurdle runners underperform in this and he bled last time.

I'm unsure about Acapella Borgeouis' last run - he is a huge player if he can replicate that, and well done to those on at big prices, but I can't back him at his current odds.  Royal Vacation is the other one who interests me; even though he was handed the Feltham, he was very impressive next time out at Cheltenham.

The one I've gone in on though is O O Seven.  Confirmed runner with Aiden Coleman on board, rated in the low 150's, was a good enough novice hurdler last year and put in a commanding performance at Cheltenham earlier in the year - he is a high class animal.

Also, R Carver putting his first post on this forum for well over a year saying he is the standout bet is good enough for me.  25/1 nrnb (1/5 odds ew) or 20/1 nrnb (1/4 odds ew) is a great price, considering the amount that will drop out.
Report Jb23 March 11, 2017 2:30 PM GMT
I believe 007 is running in the handicap on day 1 I believe chief. Pretty sure Ive read it somewhere
Report wellchief March 11, 2017 2:37 PM GMT
Definitely goes the RSA JB.  From RUK website:

Aidan Coleman
I’m delighted to pick up O O Seven ride

10 March 2017

I was delighted to be asked to ride Minella Rocco and My Tent Or Yours for JP McManus earlier in the week, and I’ve also got the ride on O O Seven in the RSA Chase.

He’s a nice ride to pick up and I was 10 lengths behind him when he won at Cheltenham at The Open back in November; and won a decent chase in January.
Report Jb23 March 11, 2017 4:56 PM GMT
Oh nice! I was under the impression he was running on day 1! Too much information to process!
Report yeast March 11, 2017 10:29 PM GMT
Henderson confirmed 007 as RSA bound after racing tonight. Said Might Bite was electric schooling on Friday.
Report lewisham ranger March 11, 2017 10:50 PM GMT
he might be electric according to his trainer but just watched a video of his last run at doncaster and might bite looked very ordinary at a number of his fences.if you look at a video of his only run over fences at cheltenham (ok this was last season) he looked extremely clumsy.

I think he's the horse with by far the most ability in this but that has to be a real concern. The one I think is seriously underestimated by the market is royal vacation, who hosed up last time and will love grinding it out over this longer trip
Report the bloob March 11, 2017 10:56 PM GMT
from recollection Might Bite was jumping great until the last at Kempton, I will have to watch a re-run but at the time he seemed to be jumping well (I had backed him so was watching closely)
Report lewisham ranger March 12, 2017 7:44 AM GMT
yeah he jumped well at kempton but that was a different track and the other way around

and even then he fell

i'm not saying he's going to fall again but out of the favs next week he'd be one of the most likely to have a disaster jumping wise I reckon, along with yorkhill
Report lewisham ranger March 12, 2017 7:45 AM GMT
in some ways he reminds me of sprinter sacre, in other words he has tremendous scope and can look spectacular at some of his fences, but rather like sprinter he can look awkward and mechanical at some of his fences

didn't stop sprinter I guess
Report shockster March 12, 2017 10:56 AM GMT
American misses Cheltenham altogether confirms Harry Fry
Report ReaseHeath March 12, 2017 11:04 AM GMT
thanks, shockster - nobody can complain about that, Fry has consistently said American would n't run if he thought the ground would be too fast.
Report shockster March 12, 2017 11:19 AM GMT
If Acapella Burgeois (I think he will) takes his chance looks like he'll get a solo up front. You all know I'm on, but must have a great chance if he sets the fractions uncontested. Load up.
Report harry callaghan March 12, 2017 11:27 AM GMT
a really taking gamble on the acapella horse will be interesting to see him on better ground, i have found this year a brutal race to fathom as liked our duke as a likely type for this (didn't bet) and he hasn't come, strange decision to me...anyway will wait now and see who is declared
Report lewisham ranger March 12, 2017 11:32 AM GMT
the thing that puts me off with that acapella horse is the thought that I can't shake, which is that it's last race was somehow dodgy

certainly on good ground I struggle to believe that he'll dominate this field like he did the one last time
Report shockster March 12, 2017 11:35 AM GMT
I liked Our Duke Harry and had backed him at 153 on here, (I actually got him listed on the market) but Acapella did beat him twice last year and gave him 5lb to boot.  This horse has an engine.
Report buddeliea March 12, 2017 11:38 AM GMT
He wont have it uncontested in the RSA,he might still win though.
Personally think it all hinges on ADO.
Think hes the best horse in the race,but he bled last time.
Report harry callaghan March 12, 2017 11:44 AM GMT
yes he has an engine shockster and this race is now cutting up with the loss of coney island, bellshill not convincing american needing soft and there was one other who was also pulled out...shame about that our duke shockster that would of been a real plumb tickler
Report shockster March 12, 2017 11:48 AM GMT
Not long before we find out, one way or the other.
Report lewisham ranger March 12, 2017 11:51 AM GMT
can't see him winning on good ground.

they'll put it up to him and he'll fold like a deck of cards.
Report lewisham ranger March 12, 2017 11:52 AM GMT
acapella that is.

as for alpha des obeaux, I'm of the opinion this is the worst bet of the festival. Small as a pony, bled last time.

Tbh I'll be amazed if he finishes the race.
Report harry callaghan March 12, 2017 11:53 AM GMT
i will say one thing i'm not that keen on might bite as feel he'll be better on a flat track but they really are tempting you in here at 4/1, it is way to big against these horses imo...this race has very little depth class wise and he is way clear on my ratings
Report shockster March 12, 2017 11:59 AM GMT
Yes at Kempton, Jacobs aberration apart, Might Bite looked the real deal, but Doncaster was iffy in my book and Chelt last year?????
Report lewisham ranger March 12, 2017 12:00 PM GMT
it's a very poor race isn't it harry

if might bite wins doing handsprings like he would have done at kempton if he hadn't fallen at the last, we're all going to feel like fools for not lumping on
Report shockster March 12, 2017 12:06 PM GMT
You could say the same about Acapella Bourgeois??? Looking at his last race except he didn't fall?
Report buddeliea March 12, 2017 12:07 PM GMT
Bit harsh LR,you watched him jump a fence?
The bleeding is obviously a concern,but they don't all bleed next time.
Don't bleed,he wins imo.
Report jedi sophie March 12, 2017 12:09 PM GMT
Best piece of form in race by country mile ADO last year! By a mile!Laid out for this and hates the Soft over there!
Report harry callaghan March 12, 2017 12:16 PM GMT
shockster that run last year at cheltenham he was a very inexperienced horse then, it was only his 4th career start so i'd forgive him that and his form off the lay off is also very average he ran ok off of 148 later in the season but his better form is on a flat track, his run last time was just a school round to get his confidence back, anyway i'm not keen but he is certainly not a 4/1 shot against these lot

that acapella race really fell apart for me shockster i backed him that day for no profit as was on edwuld who fell early and the giggi horse who was hampered and lost a lot of ground, it really is a race to put a line through in my book and i haven't been able to give it a solid rating
Report harry callaghan March 12, 2017 12:26 PM GMT
just on alpha des obeaux... quick question what part of his form says he can win this and bare in mind we have got to take 5- 6/1 about him...i think he has been an habitual loser his whole career and apart from the mouse morris angle i see nothing in his recent form to say we should be taking such a horrible price about him and also i don't buy the angle about the ground, he doesn't mind soft ground at all imo
Report wellchief March 12, 2017 12:31 PM GMT
Alpha has fallen into second favourite for this race without impressing over fences.

He is priced up based on last years World Hurdle run imo.

5 or 6/1 is a terrible price imo
Report sageform March 12, 2017 12:32 PM GMT
OO seven looks the danger to Might Bite to me.
Report buddeliea March 12, 2017 12:42 PM GMT
Cannot believe some of the stuff I am reading on here re ADO.
I advise watching his last three races,two of which were over distance shorter than he wants,and he was leading and outjumping Our Duke the eventual winner when the bleed came last time.
There is no way anyone can crab his jumping if they have watched him.
No Way!!!
Report buddeliea March 12, 2017 12:44 PM GMT
Yes the price may be affected because he had good staying hurdling form,but that does not detract from his chances in this race.
Only the possibility of more bleeding does.
Report harry callaghan March 12, 2017 12:52 PM GMT
budd thats non sense they were all still on the bridal at the point in which he bled
Report buddeliea March 12, 2017 12:55 PM GMT
Harry,i never said anything about him winning that race,i said he was outjumping the eventual winner....which he was.
Report buddeliea March 12, 2017 12:59 PM GMT
I just wanted to make a point re his jumping mate.
Report harry callaghan March 12, 2017 1:05 PM GMT
well you did say he was upsides the winner and out jumping him which meant you believe he would of gone close...i've never bought he is an out and out stayer myself either so the distance thing i don't buy...don't get me wrong against these horses he has his chance but 6/1 is saying he is going very close and i don't actually buy his form as being that good the rating of 170 last year was an overreaction in my book against a mediocre field and i know everyone made him favorite for this on the back of that

his form this year is just average and he was found out again at the top table at fairyhouse when having a perfect trip up in the van before performing his usual party trick of not finding when challenged
Report harry callaghan March 12, 2017 1:05 PM GMT
fair enough budd you know i can be a brutal at timesGrin
Report buddeliea March 12, 2017 1:17 PM GMT
No worries mate.

Sorry if I implied I thought he would have gone close,that was not what I meant.
Although obviously I do think that!! as I have backed him for this race.
But if i believe that then I have to think his form is right up there.
I have him at 12's,and happy with that.
Gonna play on AB as well.
Might also try and find an outsider who can tough it out.
Report harry callaghan March 12, 2017 1:21 PM GMT
and heres me picking the bones out of bothGrin best of luck with the wagers budd
Report buddeliea March 12, 2017 1:23 PM GMT
You too Harry
Report wellchief March 12, 2017 1:45 PM GMT
Alpha Des Obeaux was my pick for this race before the start of the year, but I'm only luke warm on him now - not saying he can't/won't win, but he just hasn't been as good over fences as I thought he would, and like Harry, maybe he was flattered behind Thistlecrack in the World Hurdle.

I know he was running over a trip too short in the Drinmore, but you could say that about Coney Island and Anibele Fly too, who both beat him, in fact Anibele Fly was being ridden whilst ADO was still on the bridle and Anibele Fly outstayed ADO to finish second.

No More Heores hacked up in the Drinmore last year over a trip too short, but he had the class to overcome the short trip, with Sub Lieutenant well behind, who is my Ryanair pick this year.  I know this is different year, different horses; but I would have expected ADO's class to get him over the line in the Drinmore; espcially as he was so far ahead of them over hurdles.

I agree that his jumping was good when against Our Duke etc last time, and who knows what would have happened if he hadn't gone wrong, but they were still a good way from home, so hard to draw any conclusions and what how the race would have panned out.

I just think at the price, I couldn't touch him at 6/1.  He's kind of creeped into second favourite because of Our Duke's lack of entry, Coney Island's injury and Bellshill's tip up last time.  I think 12's is a good price (I have him at that price in a Lucky 15), but too many question marks for me to be second favourite.
Report buddeliea March 12, 2017 1:54 PM GMT
Yeh I'm can see your points re class in the 2 and a half m races,but I do think there is a lack of class in this race,so over 3m against this opposition I think hes a big chance.
He is such a good jumper, I can see him going clear if he repeats his jumping thus far......just hope he don't repeat the bleeding!!
Report firstimevisor March 12, 2017 2:02 PM GMT
I think ADO's price right now is quite generous. I can see him going off at around 3s on the day. He's had a typical Mouse prep where its all about the spring festivals. He hasn't set the world on fire over the winter but has shown that he jumps well and the yard has really come good in the last 2 weeks after a shocking winter when several of his horses bled. Take Thistlecrack out of last years stayers and ADO's would have been the best Stayers hurdle performance we have ever seen, winning by 22 lengths. I really believe he will take some stopping in the RSA and will be seriously punted on the day.
Report wellchief March 12, 2017 2:04 PM GMT
just hope he don't repeat the bleeding!!

Yeah mate, that's the biggest question mark to be honest.  My worry is that if he did it last time when he appeared to still be travelling well within himself, will he do it again when the gun is put to his head up the hill when there could be two or three in a line.
Report lewisham ranger March 12, 2017 3:11 PM GMT

buddeliea 12 Mar 17 12:42 Joined: 19 Mar 04 | Topic/replies: 13,107 | Blogger: buddeliea's blog
Cannot believe some of the stuff I am reading on here re ADO.
I advise watching his last three races,two of which were over distance shorter than he wants,and he was leading and outjumping Our Duke the eventual winner when the bleed came last time.
There is no way anyone can crab his jumping if they have watched him.
No Way!!!
Rate reply:
| report block user

you must have been watching a different race
Report impossible123 March 12, 2017 3:46 PM GMT
Acapella Bourgeois is unlikely to get his ground unless the heavens open big time; ADO has the potential and form to win if no bleed during the race; Might Bite has a good chance if can reproduce Kempton form; Bellshill not out of it if his confidence returns; Whisper too can win it.

I hope the winner will come from the above mentioned horses; I have two of them, hopefully one is the winner.
Report buddeliea March 12, 2017 3:53 PM GMT
Maybe you can tell me what I said was not accurate LR?
Report impossible123 March 15, 2017 6:33 PM GMT
Alpha Des Obeaux bled again, according to RUK.
Report unclepuncle March 15, 2017 8:13 PM GMT
Once a bleeder always a bleeder.Sad
Report wellchief March 15, 2017 9:59 PM GMT
I was made up when Might Bite got the call, even though I didn't have a penny on him.

It was a thoroughly deserved win and imo should be King George fav ahead of Thistlecrack.

Got to love a bold front runner like that.
Report lordnoise March 15, 2017 11:25 PM GMT
Might Bite is unbackable unless his brain is heavily factored in to his price ...
Report harry callaghan March 16, 2017 2:03 AM GMT
unbackable quite funny
Report sageform March 16, 2017 5:22 AM GMT
Not the fist horse to react like that when facing the hill and the Cheltenham crowd. Easily sorted by a hood or some other aids but he might not do it again. Great performance to make all and my best result so far.
Report DECALEC March 16, 2017 6:59 AM GMT
Unbackable ffs wise up
Report shockster March 16, 2017 10:17 AM GMT
Might Bite was brilliant.  Really exciting horse.
Report sageform March 16, 2017 12:54 PM GMT
decalec, you lay it, Shockster and I will back it.
Report DECALEC March 20, 2017 1:12 AM GMT
Sage my comment was the opposite of what you think,I backed the horse,he was looking round/the noise got to him etc;he could be anything when he matures so would definitely want him onside
Report lewisham ranger March 20, 2017 8:40 AM GMT
if they put headgear on the horse I think that will be a very bad idea. Personally I dislike horses who wear some kind of aid, be it a hood, cheekpieces or so on. How many horses have won top class races wearing headgear? Ok see more business springs to mind, and ruler of the world in the derby.

but so many fall by the wayside. Yanworth last week, politologue.
Report DECALEC March 20, 2017 8:44 AM GMT
Rule the world GN synchronized GC
Report sageform March 20, 2017 12:13 PM GMT
Massive difference between different aids. Hoods are a good idea on young horses having their first or second run. Several Festival winners had ear plugs-what is the difference? Blinkers on a horse that has lost its form seldom work I would agree. If he was mine, Might Bite would run in a hood.
Report lewisham ranger March 20, 2017 2:55 PM GMT
not if he was mine he wouldn't.

his form would drop off. at the moment he's a brilliant horse that could achieve great things. start throwing headgear on him, and you mess with that. Somebody mentioned some other horses that have done good things with headgear on, but maybe see more business besides, I can't think of many who have improved for that and plenty have gone backwards.

hopefully henderson will see sense and leave him as he is.
Report sageform March 20, 2017 6:09 PM GMT
He may well run straight on other courses but they did wonder why he made such a hash of the last at Kempton and perhaps he really is spooked by crowd noise. Much as I love Might Bite (partly because he saved me from a near whitewash at the Festival), I find his RPR a bit generous compared to the first 2 in the Neptune. I would be very confident that those 2 will take high honours in time but is Might Bite really 18lb better than them?
Report lewisham ranger March 20, 2017 6:52 PM GMT
I'm a bit confused sageform, are you talking about the hurdle race?

I thought you normally add 10 pounds for ratings over fences. I think might bite is a rhythm horse, if he gets into the right rhythm then he's probably close to unbeatable but if he can be unsettled (ala carvills hill) then he might not look so good.
Report sageform March 20, 2017 7:19 PM GMT
Yes I did mean the Neptune Novice hurdle. There is no rule about higher rating over fences and although Might Bite was far superior to his opposition, none of them has shown anything near Grade 1 form. Some years top hurdlers are rated higher than the chasers.
Report lewisham ranger March 20, 2017 8:11 PM GMT
I thought chasers were in general rated about 10 pounds higher than hurdlers though? Maybe there isn't some set rule but I believe that's generally the case.
Report sageform March 24, 2017 6:13 AM GMT
Not always. The average of the top 10 rated chases will be higher than hurdlers .No idea why.  By the same token, novices are hardly ever rated within 10lb of championship horses unless there is a lot of evidence to the contrary. Altior has shown himself the best 2 mile Chaser if you take the Newbury form literally but he is still only rated RPR 175, 1lb ahead of Sizing John (174) and is behind Douvan (178) which is fair enough if Douvan was injured. Buveur D'air in on 170 which is again fair enough for what seems to be a sub standard Champion Hurdle.
Report lewisham ranger March 24, 2017 9:45 AM GMT
As speculation I think it's to do with inflation of ratings. Perhaps it tends to be slightly better class of animal that is considered worth sending over fences, for example. That way they compete with each other and ratings rise accordingly. They don't get the baseline rating dragged down by so much dross, as happens over hurdles.
Report cyclops March 24, 2017 2:43 PM GMT
I think the higher ratings reflect more the way that hurdles and chases are run.

A 2 mile hurdle is seldom won by more than a few lengths; many top hurdlers don't get produced until the last or even afterwards. The chance to post a huge rating is nearly non-existent given that such a rating would automatically bring the rest of the field up higher than they should be. Why else is it that, to my knowledge, no hurdler of recent times has been given a 180 rating? Hurricane Fly's best was 173. Hurdle ratings at the top of the scale are all but worthless, mainly because of the insistence of the ratings compliers of sticking rigidly to the 1lb = 1 length formula

Was Thistlecrack's 178 really the best hurdling performance since Big Buck's and as good as the latter at his best? If you think so, then you have to agree that, on the day, Alpha Des Obeaux ran a 170 which was 14lbs higher than his rating, and this from a horse who has never hit a 160 before or since.

Chasing often sees more spectacular winning margins and still, occasionally, handicap performances which are often a far better guide to rating a race though, sadly, they are an endangered species among the elite.
Report Catch Me ifyoucan April 17, 2017 5:55 PM BST
wellchief • February 12, 2017 7:03 PM GMT
Shame Our Duke won't be running in the RSA, but respect Harrigton for looking at the bigger picture, as it can be a brutal race for a novice.  He'll be on my Gold Cup radar next year....
Still like Coney Island for this, despite backing him NRNB for the JLT; the form of the 3m G1 at Leopardstown at Christmas would have put him bang there today - I think he'll go to Cheltenham a fresh horse and will be difficult to beat whatever race he lines up in - I think the trio of Our Duke, Coney Island and Disko are strong.
I'd be all over Our Duke if he was running
Report Catch Me ifyoucan January 23, 2018 3:56 PM GMT

RSA 2018

12pm, 23rd January - 2018 Initial Entry Stage.....will be out in the morning Devil

12pm, 20th February - Forfeit Stage
12pm, 8th March - Confirmation Of Entry Stage
This market will close at 10am on the 12th March. A day of the race market will be available shortly after.
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