Horses winning their first Gold Cup at their third attempt

The Fellow

The Fellow won on his 4th attempt, cannot remember any others

Cheers. Just looked him up - beaten by a short head on both his first two attempts - that is harsh.

Dont really see the relevance of the stat though. Djakadam has been second in 2 above average gold cups and still is just a 7 yo. His best days should be ahead. Don Cossack was beaten in a Ryanair at 7. Cue Card ran in and won the Ryanair at 7 and is currently second fav to win the GC as an 11 yo. Its quite possible that Djak may not even have to improve on his last 2 GC runs to win another...Lord Windermere, Cool Ground, Cool Dawn, Mr Mulligan are a few names off the top that managed to win it.

Of course Djakadam can win it. Not saying he will but he has at least as good a chance,if not better, of winning at 8 than the last 2 years

I think it is very relevant. Plenty of horses get beaten in Gold Cups. From the looks of it only one has ever come back from losing in several to get his head in front. To me that makes it far more sensible to concentrate on unexposed horses having their first go or previous winners than something that has tried and failed a couple of times already.

Above average? Coneygree's Gold Cup? I can't be having that

So you are assuming that the standard of the Gold Cup goes up or stays the same every year.... Kauto Star, Denman, Kauto Star,Imperial Call, Long Run, Lord Windermere.?

Its reasonable to expect horses to improve from 7 to 8. To me its far more sensible to concentrate on horses who have been there and are still young enough rather than unexposed types

Premier it depends on your definition of average gold cup.There have been lots of weak GCs, Best Mate's era was poor, the 90s were awful. Kauto, Denman, Imperial Call and Long Run were above average. I wouldnt put the 2015 race in quite the same bracket but was still better than most

I like trends but you have to look at them in the context of the opposition to Djakadam and their prices.

Thistlecrack- A novice chaser so after no winner as a novice for 40 years we are now going to have 2 in 3 years/ Has any stayrers hurdler won the Gold Cup?

Cue Card 11 years old and fell last year

Coneygree trying to win it back only Kauto has done that

Don Cossack injured and we don't get many repeat winners

I think 10/1 about Djakadam at this stage is reasonable and he is not to be ruled out

The Dikler fell in 1970 as a novice, was third in 71 and third again in 72 (should have won, jockey had a brainstorm) before winning in 73.
A long time ago of course.
I'd agree absolutely with firstimevisor; second in two good Gold Cups; we don't know how good this one will be.
So far, none of last year's novices has broken into the big league. Even Native River, who came out of the Hennessy a similar horse to Smad Place, has a long way to go before joining the elite.

Djakadam at 10/1 after winning a mediocre John Durkan chase over 20f yesterday is reasonable indeed given this season's Cheltenham Gold Cup probabale runners, but a Gold Cup winner in March I'd doubt that very much, why? His win yesterday over Outlander, who was comprehensively beaten by Kylemore Lough in the Ryanair Novice Gold Cup at Fairyhouse last season, is certainly not Gold Cup winning standard as Cue Card was upside and going the better before falling two out is one; I also believe Djakadam is too exposed despite his age, and not a genuine 3m 2.5f horse in a fast run competitive Gold Cup.

I am also disappointed he is more likely to run in the Lexus instead of the King George if he is to be considered a serious contender in March unless connections intend to run Vroum Vroum Mag.

Djakadam was second in the fastest GC ever run so I can't see how he can be called a non stayer.
We still dont know how Cue Card would cope with the extra near 3 furlongs. He sill has to prove his stamina for the trip and he's rising 11.
FWIW I would say that Djakadam's first run this season was better than either Cue Cards or Thistlecracks first runs, but there's a long way to go till March

I'm personally not sold on Djakadam just yet but it's also worth pointing out that his preparation for last season's Gold Cup must have been compromised to some extent by the injury he sustained when he fell in the Cotswold Chase - I can absolutely see him turning up in March and producing an even better effort than last year - hard to say at this stage whether that would be good enough but it might be.

It's hard to make out a case that Djakadam is the best horse being aimed at the Gold Cup. Even improvement from last season would not be enough to bridge the gap between him and the very best.
However, it would be equally hard to make out a case for him not to go close as, combining reliability, stamina, superb jumping, adaptability with regards to ground conditions and soundness, he is as good a benchmark as there is.
I identified him at the start of the season as a banker 9/2 place shot in another thread and would be very surprised if he doesn't deliver another placing.

Djakadam would be a banker in the Ryanair just like Vautour was last season, I firmly believe,...Gold Cup? Hugely unlikely unless Don Cossack, Coneygree, Cue Card and Thistlecrack are absentees.

Not sure the shorter trip would see him to best advantage. No sign that connections are looking at that option. Why would you having been runner up in the big one twice?

He has won 2 John Durkin's, slammed Valseur Lido in that race last year and won well enough on better ground this year. He was still going well and looking dangerous when coming down 4 out in the JLT. The only race he has won further than 2m 5f was a bang average Thyestis.

I can see the reasoning why it can be believed he is better at distances shorter than 3m and why some are saying maybe he should go for the Ryanair even despite finishing 2njd in 2 Gold Cup's.

I think its easy to overlook the stat against horses trying this for the third time. As has already been said, he may not need even to improve... just turn up and run the same again and that could be good enough. There is every chance he will improve this season, given his age though.

Even though the GC is much more likely now that Vautour is unfortunately not an option, I still don't think the GC is a certainty. Much will depend on the opposition as ever. If Thistlecrack annihilates the field in the KG for example and becomes a short priced fav for the GC, then WPM and RR may reroute, as Festival winners are their ultimate priority.

But Djakadam is the WPM first string for the GC and you'd have to fancy he wants to try and win it.

I think Walsh choosing to ride Djakadam over the weekend in preference to Douvan was to decipher if the former has not regressed. I think Valseur Lido has improved from last season; he ran in the Ryanair (20f) and Irish Gold Cup (24f) and possibly would have won both had Vautour not run in the former and not fallen at the last in the latter. If Valseur Lido does not win the Lexus he might again go for the Ryanair this season.

I do not believe Djakadam stay a truly fast run 26.5f race; he had every chance when beaten by Don Cossack (possibly Cue Card too) last season and Coneygree the season before on his ground.

I dont think that was the reason.

The John Durkan was worth €50k and the Hily Way €30k. Don't underestimate Ruby's penchnat for a few quid. Added to that, Ruby also had American Tom and Turcagua at Punch, two pretty exciting novices... Id also imagine they felt Djakadam would benefit from Ruby more than Douvan would. I reckon I could have ridden Douvan to victory, whereas the John Durkan was always going to be the more competitive race.

As for regression. I'm not sure many 7 year olds regress. Getting beaten by only Coneygree one year and only Don Cossack the next hardly proves he doesnt stay.

CCM
No, you could not have ridden Douvan and won - you would have fallen off at the 1st or 2nd or soon after the start!

Very possibly, nonetheless RR only has Djakadam and VVM as credible candidates for the Gold Cup hence the latter being the sole entry for the King George - Douvan was a "red herring".

All I know about American Tom is he was injured and off for a while similar to another inmate of the connections name of which escaped me (I tended not able to remember horses I'd never backed) last or the season before last who ran a very promising 1st race back but faltered when up in grade soon after. I think this horse got injured badly and retired for good soon after.

You might have a point regards Djakadam being only 7 years old however, he was over raced, and rushed (especially) last year ie ran in the Gold cup after a bad fall just prior; he also was beaten by a donkey in Carlingford Lough, a horse who lacks pace but a stout stayer in the Irish Punchestown Gold Cup last season.

The Gold Cup was just his third run of the season - second, really, given he fell early at Cheltenham in Jan.
Mullins likes to run his horses at the three Spring festivals and Djakadam ran well enough at all of them, albeit the edge may have been taken off him by a hard race in the Gold Cup.
The fall was nearly two months before the Gold Cup and he may well have run the race of his life there; he jumped to perfection and was cruising all the way until finding a rival with an extra gear. He ran on really well, the pursuers never narrowing the gap.
People seem to be knocking him for two runner-up positions; to me, they were the two best runs of his life but he ran into two exceptional performers. The thought that he may be better over a shorter trip does not occur to me and neither, it seems, does it to his owner or trainer.

Agree with all of that cyclops, until your last sentence. Clearly the thought does occur to the trainer as he's just won the John Durkan!   

I don't think you can say that so emphatically. Last year they had Vautour and were always going to split the two up. Now they don't have him, and unless VVM goes chasing, Djakadam will be the sole option RR option for the Ryanair and GC. I dont think the decision will be quite as straight forward as you suggest.

"The thought that he may be better over a shorter trip does not occur to me and neither, it seems, does it to his owner or owner."

Immediately after the defeat of Djakadam in the Gold Cup last season WPM said: "I might have to look for another race for him at the Festival."

Shaneshill was outstayed by No More Heroes and Blaklion over 21f and 24f yet RR intimated Shaneshill could step-up in distance in the future - how bizzare!

Impossible123, I have to take a deep breath and count to 10 every time I read your gibberish. I'm all for debate but there's just no logic to practically everything you say.

WPM never said what you quoted above, it just fits in with your own beliefs but is simply not true.

You have said twice now that Djakadam doesn't stay a fast run GC trip when any half wit can see he does. Coneygree's GC was the fastest in history. Djakadam stayed every yard. That's concrete proof.

As for Shaneshill not staying 3m, your favourite rant. Absolutely ridiculous. He has shown beyond all doubt he stays 3m three times this year at Grade 1 level. Yet you keep harping back to a run he had as a novice hurdler as proof that he doesn't stay. The fact is, you backed Shaneshill for the JLT thinking he doesn't stay 3 miles and just cannot let it go ever since.

Could Djakadam be value at 3/1 or 5.5 (here) in the Lexus? Valseur Lido is presently the 2/1 fav after trouncing Silviniaco Conti who has since disappointed in the Betfair Chase.

firstimevisor
13 Dec 16 20:06
Joined: 09 May 10
| Topic/replies: 416 | Blogger: firstimevisor's blog
Impossible123, I have to take a deep breath and count to 10 every time I read your gibberish. I'm all for debate but there's just no logic to practically everything you say.




hence why people have stopped posting on the forum...

i see this thread has been taken over... with decent good posters with a decent opinion to add banging there head against a wall 

anything that's comes into his head needs to be posted...i think he's got some form of disorder, i thought it maybe bipolar but i don't think it is, just cannot put my finger on it. maybe just needs a job

At the start of the year I couldn't have had Djakadam because of the reason above...he's been beaten twice, we had Vautour as the stable number 1 who would finally be aimed at it once and for all, and in my view the race looked stronger on paper than it does now, but he has to firmly enter the picture now.

Looking at the Gold Cup line up, I don't necessarily think he needs to improve, as I think the races he's been in are stronger than this one.  10/1 is a fair shout, as I think he has the fewest question marks in my view.  I wouldn't be surprised if he did win it because he is very good, but I also wouldn't be surprised if he ran into one too good again - not the boldest statement ever, but this is a very tricky race to unpick.

I don't see why Djak would beat Cue Card who was laughing at him when falling last year or Coneygree if he gets back to his 2015 form, but he is younger than those 2 and could improve. I certainly can't back anything apart from those 3.

My only response would be that Cue Card was in the absolute form of his life last year, and I saw that as by far his best chance of winning a Gold Cup.

I love Cue Card, and despite backing Coneygree at Haydock, I cheered home Cue Card as loud as anyone else.  However, I want to see him in the King George before I make my mind up on him this year.

I can forgive Punchestown because of a hard season, but he didn't look the same to me at Wetherby.  In the Betfair he only really had one horse to beat, who was coming back after a year off, so I'm not getting too carried away.  Now Coneygree is a monster, so I'm not belittling Cue Card's victory, but I think we'll get a better Coneygree in the King George, so I think that'll provide a better understanding of the Gold Cup pecking order.

Djak is still a young horse (maybe not in his prime, but his legs are young and he's never had any leg injuries as far as I can tell).  As I said above, I think he is just below top top class, but I could definitely see him winning a Gold Cup, but if Cue Card can replicate his Betfair run, then as you say, I think Cue Card will have too many gears for him.

King George will tell us a lot more.

firstime

Sorry but Coneygrees GC isn't the fastest in history - I may have misunderstood your point though.

firstimevisor • December 11, 2016 11:32 PM GMT
Dont really see the relevance of the stat though. Djakadam has been second in 2 above average gold cups and still is just a 7 yo. His best days should be ahead. Don Cossack was beaten in a Ryanair at 7. Cue Card ran in and won the Ryanair at 7 and is currently second fav to win the GC as an 11 yo. Its quite possible that Djak may not even have to improve on his last 2 GC runs to win another...Lord Windermere, Cool Ground, Cool Dawn, Mr Mulligan are a few names off the top that managed to win it.

Of course Djakadam can win it. Not saying he will but he has at least as good a chance,if not better, of winning at 8 than the last 2 years...very relevant

Djakadam should follow the same path as last season and go to Cheltenham a fresh horse. He has as good a chance as anything else in the race but the worry is he keeps finding something too good. In a parallel universe, horses like Djakadam, Shaneshill and My Tent or Yours would be Cheltenham legends. Unfortunately in this one, they seem destined to always be the bridesmaids.

I think one or two will launch themselves into the reckoning at Christmas. Perhaps something like Zabana or Outlander could win the Lexus or Josses Hill could run a big race in the King George. The point I would make is the Gold Cup has the look of a wide open race at the moment, i.e. the last 2 winners have their problems, Cue Card will be 11 come race time and Thistlecrack still a novice. Djakadam or any of the others I've mentioned are well worth a punt.

Cue Card didn't look as impressive in the KG as in his other races last season but running down Vautour over a tight 3 miles was probably an awesome effort in hindsight. We will never know how good it was but Vautour was one of the easiest winners of the festival in the Ryanair.

If Cue Card wins the KG, surely Thistlecrack will not oppose his chance of the £1 million at Cheltenham? Without Thistle and the doubts over Coneygree I can see Cue Card going off at evens in March.

Gold Cup market will be completely reshaped before New Year.

If Thistlecrack or Cue Card win the King George convincingly, they will go a short price for the Gold Cup, and similarly, if Djakadam or Valseur Lido win the Lexus well, I can either of them being around 5/1 after the race.

p_r_e_m_i_e_r__f_a_n_t_a_s_y  11 Dec 16 23:47   
Above average? Coneygree's Gold Cup? I can't be having that

Im sure loads of people do this but if you have 2 screens (eg an ipad and a pc) its great fun running races together at the same time. This ones a belter..

Denman 2008 CGC vs Coneygree 2015 CGC

1st fence - Denman starts slowly
4th fence - Entire 2015 field ahead. Denman hacking round at the back behind Lord Windermere.
Over the next circuit, Neptune Collonges and Denman slowly move back up the field
9 out - Denman in midfield tracking Djakadam
5 out - Denman in a leading group of 8 (Kauto Star at this point is in big trouble falling off them)
4 out - Denman moves upside Coneygree
3 out - Denman passes Coneygree down the hill
2 out - Denman a length up
Last fence - Coneygree comes back at Denman with a better jump
Finish - Coneygree powers up the hill with a tired Denman hanging on for 4th ahead of Holywell

The going:
2008: Good to Soft (not sure I believe that)
2015: Soft, Good to soft in places