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cyclops
22 Sep 16 13:57
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Date Joined: 11 Apr 02
| Topic/replies: 1,157 | Blogger: cyclops's blog
The favourite for the Cheltenham Gold Cup has never jumped a fence in public.
The second favourite has never won over three miles.
The third favourite will be eleven in March.
The fourth favourite is returning from injury.
The fifth favourite (and reigning Champion) also tries to return from injury.
There does not appear to be a stand out staying novice from last year.
Which leads me to the conclusion that Djakadam is absolutely nailed on for a place.
Worthy runner-up for the past two years, consistent, a superb jumper, happy on any going and, thus far, sound.
Yes, he's been found wanting by two good winners, but not by so far. He's young enough to not decline, possibly improve, and while he could easily find one or two of the above, or something from left field, too good, he's unlikely to find three.
There's speculation on another thread that he could head for the Ryanair, but that's not going to happen in my view.
At around 9/2 the place, he looks outstanding.
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Report johnn February 21, 2017 8:10 PM GMT
I tool 16s on Sportsbook, MAX bet £7.70Cry
Report ZenMaster February 22, 2017 10:31 AM GMT
Should be favourite for the race as of now.

Thistlecrack needs to improve on g/s ground.
Cue Card has age against him (still fancy him more than Native River)

The Irish horses still hold plenty of value, Djakadam perhaps only needs to run to lasts years mark to win the race, but i have a feeling he will be a couple of pounds better than his 7 year old performance.
Report kavvie February 22, 2017 10:32 AM GMT
were you asleep all of yesterday zen??  or are you talking about the 2018 gc?!?!?
Report cyclops February 22, 2017 10:32 AM GMT
Agreed with that zenmaster.
PS Thistlecrack is a non runner.
Report ZenMaster February 22, 2017 10:50 AM GMT
Laugh

Sorry guys, i have Thistlecrack on the brain.
Native River needs to improve on good/soft ground.
Report hicksterthetrickster February 22, 2017 10:58 AM GMT
There is a system that says Djackadam doesn't win.

I think with the exception of The fellow - in modern times. No horse that has completed in the gold cup (apart from winners) have ever gone on to win gold cup.

So Cue card (fell) and native river, outlander, sizing John can win Djakadam cant
Report ZenMaster February 22, 2017 11:01 AM GMT
How can Djakadam be 8.2 (Betfair price) and is a proven 165+ horse on good or good/soft

And Native River is 4.1 (Betfair price) and is only a proven 155 horse on good/soft?

When was the last time a horse was outpaced in the 4 miler only to win the Gold Cup the next year?
It's all about the going for Native River to hold any chance.
Report firstimevisor February 22, 2017 11:28 AM GMT
Hickster you know those stats mean nothing. The fellow was second in 2 GCs(beaten 2 short heads) then fourth and then won, on his 4th attempt and still just a 9yo.

Djak is the most likely winner and regardless of the result if he's sound will be back in 2018 with a chance again.
Report hicksterthetrickster February 22, 2017 11:31 AM GMT
I know what you mean. However as stated with exception of the fellow. System has stood up, quite a few first time runners to choose from this year though
Report SEATHESTARS....NO1 February 22, 2017 11:35 AM GMT
^^LoveKauto StarLove^^


WON SECOND WON

But surely your not forgetting about the best steeplechaser of all timeConfusedShocked
Report ZenMaster February 22, 2017 12:05 PM GMT
Positions come behind ratings. Grin

It matters not a jot as to what position they finish. If their ability (lets say rating) is good enough to win the next year and  they run to that rating, then they win.
Report wellchief February 22, 2017 12:37 PM GMT
None of his backers concerned he nearly always finds one too good?

I know he's raced at a high level but he is 0 from 8 in Graded 3m chases. Yes, no Coney or Don this time, but that is still a poor record for a Gold Cup winner elect.

Cyclops has a cracking place bet, but would anyone be surprised if he ran into one too good again? I definitely wouldn't be.
Report ZenMaster February 22, 2017 1:40 PM GMT
If it's no worse than good to soft only Cue Card can beat it, if Djakadam runs to the same mark as last year.

If it's soft then Native River comes into calculations. Anything else will have improve quite a bit.

Coneygree didn't need to improve much to win his GC, he was already on a mark of 166 for a soft ground win.
Don Cossack was already a 175 horse when he went into last years GC.

So it's not as though other horses have improved past Djakadam, he has been beaten by two horses already ahead of him.
Tis different this year (depending on the going).
Report ReaseHeath February 22, 2017 1:51 PM GMT
Ricci issued a bullish,upbeat bulletin on Djakadam's well being this morning so that must surely be a massive negative for his chances Grin
Report impossible123 February 22, 2017 1:53 PM GMT
On last season's form Djakadam is the best of the Irish using Don Poli as a guide - the former beat him by 10l in the GC last year; when he was 2nd to Coneygree the ground was against him - it was soft. If it comes up good again next March, that will not suit Native River and Cue Card (I believe) and with him being the freshest it could just be his year - 3rd time lucky perhaps.

Djakadam could have been a touch unlucky finishing behind two "1st time" runners/winners of the GC ie Coneygree (unsuitable ground) and Don Cossack (an above average and classy winner).
Report ZenMaster February 22, 2017 2:16 PM GMT
Cue Card was travelling ver well in last year renewal on good ground, i don't see good ground being an issue for him.
Report harry callaghan February 22, 2017 2:27 PM GMT
zen master and impossible to understand 123

why is good ground a hindrance to native river???

i always thought he wants better ground??
Report firstimevisor February 22, 2017 2:34 PM GMT
Correct harry, Tizzard has always said as much
Report impossible123 February 22, 2017 3:11 PM GMT
I think connections have stated Cue Card is better on soft ground now that he is older but not heavy or tacky. But I think Djakdam has a very good chance too this year, certainly the best of the Irish, in my book.
Report ZenMaster February 22, 2017 5:21 PM GMT
why is good ground a hindrance to native river???


What is his highest mark on good ground? or even good/soft ? 155?
His improvement has come on soft ground and he struggles to get away from rivals on good ground or even good/soft. Carols Destrier?
Report firstimevisor February 22, 2017 5:57 PM GMT
Can't agree with that Zenmaster. NR has been upwardly mobile for some time now.Good ground in mid winter is a rare thing indeed. The evidence of the horses career form tells us he is, at the very least,as effective, if not more effective on good ground. His mark of 155(which was at the time his highest ever mark) came the last time he encountered good ground.
Report ZenMaster February 22, 2017 6:01 PM GMT
123

Connections were saying that last season about Cue Card, he was running fine in last years Gold Cup, unlikely Native River would get Cue Card out of his comfort zone on good ground.
Report ZenMaster February 22, 2017 6:11 PM GMT
Native River hit 155 on good/soft firstimevisor in the Mildmay.
He has not run on good ground over fences since his very first chase.

You are taking a chance if you think NR can run to 168 on good ground and you don't have a price to reflect that.

It was good/soft in the Hennessy....not soft enough imo for him to grind away from them.
Report ZenMaster February 22, 2017 6:13 PM GMT
*grind away from them with more dominance
Report ZenMaster February 22, 2017 6:15 PM GMT
Just to add, it's not a case of him not handling good ground but a case of horses with more gears being more effective on it.
Report firstimevisor February 22, 2017 6:29 PM GMT
Yes it was good-soft, not good, when he won the Mildmay and also the Hennessy and since then he's run only on soft. The point is that he is improving all the time whatever the ground.

Djakadam is my idea of the winner, not keen on Native River anyway.
Report wellchief February 22, 2017 6:43 PM GMT
Just back on to Djakadam, he is 5lbs lower than what he was at this point last year and to me, his Lexus run disappointed me - he was only beaten 2.5 lengths to be fair, but he never looked like the winner at any stage.

I don't really see any reason why he would automatically reverse the form with Outlander.  I was surprised to see Outlander is actually older than Djakadam because Djak seems to have been around for ages, but he has had some brutal races in the past, and I just cannot see him winning the Gold Cup at the third attempt with the hard miles he has on the clock.

I'm not saying he can't win by any means, but I think this Gold Cup has quite a lot of depth.  Say you need to run to a low 170 figure to win it, Cue Card is already there, Native River just a couple behind and then Outlander, Djakadam and Sizing John have 5 or 6lbs to find.

I'd side with Outlander and Sizing John because they are unexposed at the trip - there is a risk that they both might not stay the extra distance, but I'd be willing to take that risk.  I'm not sure Djakadam has that much improvement left in him, so if he ran to a similar level as he did last time out, he'll probably place as usual.

He may well improve more for Cheltenham than I think, but I looking at this year's form, I think his price is far too short.
Report buddeliea February 22, 2017 6:46 PM GMT
If he jumps like he did at Haydock,Bristol de Mai could beat the lot of them!!
Report GAZO February 22, 2017 6:55 PM GMT
djakadam seems to run best when fresh and wasnt the lexus a week or two after his last run
Report wellchief February 22, 2017 6:55 PM GMT
I backed BDM after that race, but wish I could take my money back now to be honest mate.  I know he wasn't right last time, but it's a big ask to try and improve around 16lbs.
Report firstimevisor February 22, 2017 6:57 PM GMT
Chief, Djak had beaten Outlander first time out this year(when Outlander was race fit) over a trip short of his best. He ran flat in the Lexus.I can easily see why he will turn the Lexus form around with Outlander.
Report wellchief February 22, 2017 7:01 PM GMT
I think that was over a trip too short for Outlander as well though FTV. 

When it came down to it Outlander fell short against the best over 2.5m, so I think the extra distance brought out the necessary improvement, and that's why I think the extra 2f again could bring out some more - same goes for Sizing John.

Accept the point about the Lexus being close to his previous run though.
Report buddeliea February 22, 2017 7:03 PM GMT
It is but I have faith in this horse.
This trip imo looks ideal and I can see him continue to improve.
If conditions are soft or near soft hes a big player,i really think that.
Report ZenMaster February 22, 2017 7:10 PM GMT
Ruby was also caught in a pocket in the Lexus and according to pre race interviews Walsh had a slight concern that the Lexus may have come too soon but then after the race Mullins wished that Ruby had made more use of Djakadam, so it's a hard one to call as to what Djakadam we had then.

Anyway, he will have been primed for this and has had a nice break.
Report wellchief February 22, 2017 7:29 PM GMT
Fair point again.

I suppose Coneygree's Gold Cup he was given 168, after the Don's he was 170.  Given Cue Card is already at that mark (caveat below), and the fact he was out running Djak last year, if Cue Card runs to form/his current mark, then I don't think Djak can beat him.

If Cue Card does a King George or falls, it could be Djak that picks up the pieces.  hat said, I don't want to keep referring back to last years race though because I still need convincing Cue Card is the same horse and he is a genuine 170 horse now.  He beat a rusty Coneygree, bombed out in the King George and last time was against Grade 2, 2.5 milers.

All fun and games though, and I can see why people back him/support both  Djak and Cue Card in this.  Djak has excellent previous Gold Cup form and he is really dependable.  He could be an each way bet to nothing at his current 9/2 price as I can't see him out of the top three.
Report Arklearkle February 22, 2017 7:32 PM GMT
Djak had an interrupted prep for last years GC. If - always a very big word - Coneygree and Don Cossack had never existed he would be going for 3 in-a-row GCs. Its a plus that he's still only an 8yo but he is French bred so perhaps there's no improvement left. But he will go into the race fresh and primed to the last. It looks a sub-standard GC field and with the last two winners missing he must go very close. If there is a smell of soft in the going description it would not surprise me to see him go off favourite on the day but thats another days work.
Report impossible123 February 22, 2017 7:57 PM GMT
I agree with 'ZenMaster' that Djakadam was "caught in a pocket" and given a quiet ride by Walsh in the Lexus; Valseur Lido made progress to dispute the lead at the last fence in the same race but could only finished 4th (initially connections felt he did not stay the trip) despite leading at the last fence in the Irish Gold Cup on soft ground when unseating Walsh on landing when they were clear at the time.

Valseur Lido picked up an injury soon after that which had ruled him out for the season. The question is was this injury picked up during the Lexus? If so, would Valseur Lido have gone on after coming to dispute the lead at the last fence in the Lexus? I'd think so on the Irish Gold Cup running.

Outlander is a good horse but I do not rate the Lexus form as two of the main protagonists ie Valseur Lido and Djakadam underperformed for the above mentioned reasons.
Report dunlaying February 22, 2017 8:00 PM GMT
There is one horse that could pose a problem for all, Might Bite.
Cue Card has more than one way of running and Djakadam has not really impressed of late . With Thistlecrack out I would supplement Might Bite if he was mine. If only!
As for Native River , if you must back him , I would wait until the day as I feel the books will be out to get him.
3/1 is for the birds.

I assume that there is still a supplementary option.
Report needbinoculars February 22, 2017 9:24 PM GMT
How about champagne west? Djak won theyestes rated 145 by 8l put up to 162 and next race finished 2nd to coneygree in g cup. CW won by 7l off 154 put up to 166. Next race g cup. Admittedly CW had had a fair few more races (18 vs 11)but looks rejuvinated in the Emerald Isle. 20/1 looks worth a punt. Even looks like he can jump now but might have to battle for the lead.
Report needbinoculars February 22, 2017 9:33 PM GMT
Also just a stat I have that 10 of last 11 winners were running in g cup for first time (kauto star exception) not sure we have a kauto star this year. Sorry cue card and djakadam fans. On the flip side I guess that stat is due to be broken
Report That is all February 23, 2017 3:37 AM GMT
Djakadam for me is the most interesting horse in this - he hasn't finished out of the first 3 since Nov 14 (bar one fall), has the most concrete GC form on offer out of all runners, will be the freshest of these & imo is nailed on for a place. Even money for that now & higher before Thistlecrack was out is as much as a banker as Douvan/Altior & look at their prices.

In fact, the only runners that are going to beat him in my eyes see are the potential improvers at the distance (Sizing John/Champagne West) - can't have Cue Card on his jumping (just watched last yr's GC back again & he put in some howlers before his fall) or Native River who on form I think lacks the real class to win a GC
Report Angela Rebecchi February 23, 2017 4:20 AM GMT
He's a french raider, they often regress quicker like Long Run did. Djakadams chances been and gone.
Report That is all February 23, 2017 4:29 AM GMT
Wasn't Kauto Star French? Disagree too with his chance been and gone - he came up against 2 serious rivals in the past 2 years, Cue Card & Native River aren't the same league of opposition imo.
Report Angela Rebecchi February 23, 2017 4:30 AM GMT
He peaked 2 years ago imho. Another Long Run, best at 6.
Report That is all February 23, 2017 5:20 AM GMT
We'll see! I think it'll be more of a case of 3rd time lucky rather than unplaced in this year's GC lineup...
Report ZenMaster February 23, 2017 11:14 AM GMT
He peaked 2 years ago imho. Another Long Run, best at 6.


Yet he got a higher RPR as a 7 year old in last years Gold Cup.
Report impossible123 February 23, 2017 2:25 PM GMT
Two years ago the lack of experience and ground (soft) were against him; last year despite the good ground in his favour there was this small issue with a star runner called Don Cossack but still managed to finish 10l infront of Do Poli; he also had a cut from a fall in the run-up to Cheltenham which was far from ideal.

This year, he's been given a light campaign towards Cheltenham eg tenderly handled in the Lexus and missed the Irish Gold Cup; he is only 8yrs old and a very fresh horse come the Gold Cup; on form, I think he ought to be a lot shorter than 13/2 available.
Report duffy February 23, 2017 4:15 PM GMT
I always rail against this type of horse, he didn't finish off well enough in the previous two renewals and although the argument is that he has less quality in opposition and he finished well ahead of the rest the past two years, I always take the view that something will still always be there to outstay this type once again come the end of the race.
Report TYSON 2 February 23, 2017 6:39 PM GMT
sadly i,m old enough to remember The fellow losing twice - 91 and 92 but still won in 94.!!
Report duffy February 24, 2017 3:51 PM GMT
You're old enough to remember One Man and Florida Pearl too then, two infinitely higher class horses than Djakadam to boot.
Report Arklearkle February 24, 2017 4:09 PM GMT
They were higher class than Djakadam but possibly not over 3 miles 2 and a half furlongs at Cheltenham
Report ZenMaster February 24, 2017 4:12 PM GMT
Djakadam would thump One Man in both those Gold Cups - One Man ran to about 150 at best in those.

Florida Pearl also ran to about 150.

Djakadam has ran to a mark in the 160's in both his Gold Cups.
Report duffy February 24, 2017 4:26 PM GMT
Luckily Djakadam will have the chance to prove that he stays the trip well in a few weeks time.Grin
Report ZenMaster February 24, 2017 9:36 PM GMT
He has already run up to 165  twice over the course and distance - i don't see your point Duffy.
Report duffy February 25, 2017 1:40 PM GMT
My point is, visually he is not getting home strong enough and is therefore vulnerable, I don't care what the ratings say, I see him as vulnerable at the end of the race and even if you argue it is not as strong this year, it'll still find him out, but as said, maybe it will be 3rd time lucky, incidentally I think it's fair to say FP ran to a good bit better than 150.
Report ZenMaster February 26, 2017 6:13 PM GMT
Florida Pearl's 2nd Gold Cup was a 45L defeat by Best Mate - that is below 150
Djakadam was beaten 4.5 L by Don Cossack on his 2nd Gold Cup.
Your argument is slightly flawed that Florida Pearl was higher class at Cheltenham than Djakadam.

You want to ignore ratings because they don't fit your narrative.
Report buddeliea February 26, 2017 6:26 PM GMT
FP did not stay the gold cup trip.
I do however have the opinion that he was a high class horse at trips he was comfortable with.
Djakadam is a good horse and may yet win a gold cup,but I would never put him in a high class bracket.

Just my thoughts lads.....if it helps!!!
Report cyclops February 26, 2017 6:38 PM GMT
I'd have thought, duffy, that the one thing we do know is that Djakadam gets the trip. To me, it's whether he can quicken as well as the very best that's the issue.
He stayed on really strongly against Coneygree in 2015. Last year, while Don Cossack put four lengths between them as they rounded the home turn, Djakadam still stayed on all the way home under persistent strong pressure. None of the others gained on him to any significant effect. Yes, DC was idling but there's no doubt that Djakadam stayed every yard two years in a row.
Report impossible123 February 26, 2017 10:01 PM GMT
He only has Cue Card to beat, and the weather which is looking unsettled for the next two weeks.
Report duffy February 26, 2017 10:51 PM GMT
Zen

You've misread everything I've written, my argument is not that FP was higher class than Djakadam at Cheltenham. Someone pointed out that they can remember The Fellow winning on his 3rd attempt in which to gather hope that Djakadam could do the same. I merely pointed out that two horses that overall would be far classier than Djakadam have also tried and failed at it, there was no mention of that relative class at Cheltenham alone.

I get everything that has been said with how he stuck on and beat the rest etc etc etc, but the point I'm making is that in the previous two runnings he still didn't do it quite well enough, and there comes a point where you'd have to say that something must be missing as you can't keep saying he came up against a real good one.

So, I think that most agree that this year is below the last two runnings so he should have every chance to win the race if he stays the trip well enough. Incidentally, FP's defeat by LLT was in excess of 150.
Report duffy February 27, 2017 1:50 AM GMT
Cyclops,

I completely agree with what you have written and if you look back at what I wrote I do not state at any point that he does not stay per se, I have said "he didn't finish off well enough", will have the chance to prove that he stays the trip well in a few weeks time, visually he is not getting home strong enough!. None of which says he's a non stayer but simply that something is missing, your point about the 4 lengths on the home turn is a good one but I'd say it all comes into part of the whole picture of that he's missing something at the trip.

If he was able to boot those 4 lengths off the home turn would he have still stuck on to the line in the same manner, not necessarily, many people argued that TNO would win a CH if he was closer to the pace throughout but by going with ROR for so long put paid to that because although TNO is a thorough stayer at the trip, racing that close to it and doing too much at the wrong time rendered him legless at the end of the race leaving HF to saunter past dead horses, so it's very plausible that if Walsh pushed the horse to match DC at that point he could have killed him.

People talk about CC but in both the last two GC's nothing was travelling as well as Djakadam with three to jump, but in both races he couldn't maintain the required pace into the home straight before sticking on again although DC was edging away from him again at the line if the truth be known. For me staying the trip isn't all about what it looks like on the run to the line it's about all parts of the race and that all adds up to whether you stay, "that particular trip" well enough.
Report impossible123 February 27, 2017 9:13 AM GMT
Coneygree was at his prime and had his ground; Don Cossack was a superhorse and had his ground too. Could this not have contributed to Djakadam's perceived lack of seeing out the trip in Grade 1 races and/or ability to quicken at the business end of the race?

This year's renewal is below that of last year, I do agree, thus his best chance of putting his two defeats behind him; he is also the freshest horse in the race.
Report SEATHESTARS....NO1 February 27, 2017 9:40 AM GMT
By saying Djackadam would have been the winner of a gold cup without DC being in the race is like saying if them 5 horses that finished in front A last time out weren't there we'd have had a winner there. Utterly ridiculous!
Thus no DC means Djack's chances have improved 100% is also ridiculous! It's a totally different race, a year on. His form this year wouldn't be good enough whether he was found out by not quite seeing out the trip or not
Report Can't Catch Me February 27, 2017 11:43 AM GMT
Positive vibes from the WPM Press Day today.

Reckons hes in the best shape he's ever had him.

Suppose he was hardly likely to say anything negative, but good to hear for backers.
Report ZenMaster February 27, 2017 3:17 PM GMT
By saying Djackadam would have been the winner of a gold cup without DC being in the race is like saying if them 5 horses that finished in front A last time out weren't there we'd have had a winner there. Utterly ridiculous!


Would Don Poli have been ridden differently if DC was not in the race then?
O' Faolains Boy would not have gone the gallop etc?

If DC was not in the race last year perhaps CC might have stayed up? who knows, but Djakadam was 10L clear of the 3rd.
That says he ran about 10lb better than anything else in the race barring DC.
Report trigger3 February 27, 2017 10:53 PM GMT
Mullins is under pressure to win a gold cup and on previous years form I think he would have a decent chance. However he was very disappointing in an average Lexus and I can't help but feel that like a lot of these French Breda, he is now past his best.
Report needbinoculars February 28, 2017 12:45 AM GMT
Unless you are all completely mad, this horse CANNOT win the gold cup. There is every chance of it finishing placed . . . Again a la giant bolster but he had his chance 2 years ago and failed. And then failed again. What could possibly make anybody think it will make a difference 3rd time.A "sub standard" g cup ?.  When all the same old stuff (for want of better words) was being said in last 2 years when you're beloved djak failed to win. I am at a loss to understand this faith. Look elsewhere please. Even if it looks a little impossible, it is more possible than trying to believe that your djak can do it 3rd time lucky so go with something with potential and not something that has already proved it has none
Report That is all February 28, 2017 4:26 AM GMT
'Proved it has none' is a little far fetched - he's proven GC quality & came up against a better horse twice in the past 2 runnings of this. Imo DC & Coneygree a far better opposition than Native River & Cue Card... the opening post on this thread too is that Djakadam is banker material for a place - at 2.46 currently on here that rates the banker bet of the Festival as cyclops alluded to in the opening post for me, would prefer to take that than the so called other 'bankers' to win Altior (1.43) & Douvan (1.41)...
Report cyclops February 28, 2017 8:11 AM GMT
Thank you, T i a, strange how these threads can get hi-jacked.
I'm certainly not discounting a Djakadam win for exactly the reasons you outline but the place remains in my view, a nailed on bet, even at the current reduced odds.
I see the market's beginning to come for him as well now.
Report asparagus February 28, 2017 9:45 AM GMT
anyone who thinks Coneygree is 'far better opposition' than Cue card needs to go and re check the form book.
Report ZenMaster February 28, 2017 12:08 PM GMT
I don't think that your thread has been hijacked cyclops, but has naturally evolved now that the race has cut up. People are now talking the up the horses chances even more and have moved from the 'place' forecast to now to looking at his overall potential.
Still around 11/8 for a place looks a great bet to me.
Report That is all March 1, 2017 12:52 AM GMT
@asparagus - yes that was a generalised comment and on ratings and form Cue Card looks a better horse than Coneygree. My point being there that I simply don't rate Cue Card as a big danger to Djakadam this year for clarity.
Report impossible123 March 1, 2017 9:25 AM GMT
This year represents the best chance for Djakadam to win the Gold Cup; Cue Card is the only horse with the proven credentials that can thwart him - the rest need to improve massively (including Native River) to have a decent chance of winning. All he needs is good ground to enhance his chance, and let's hope he gets it too.
Report p_r_e_m_i_e_r__f_a_n_t_a_s_y March 1, 2017 9:30 AM GMT
Good ground??

Djakadam has never won a race on good ground
Report impossible123 March 1, 2017 9:42 AM GMT
Ya, I believe so, why? The soft ground in the year that Coneygree won was against him, and last year despite having the good ground Don Cossack superiority surpassed him notwithstanding his sterling effort. Also, I read somewhere Mullins stipulating the Ryanair for him if the ground was soft.
Report cyclops March 1, 2017 10:40 AM GMT
Don't think ground is an issue for Djakadam with regard to his own requirements. He travelled and jumped like a dream last year on good.

Good ground may well be better for him, however, in this year's renewal in that Cue Card may well be more effective on softer (at least, his trainer has said so) and Native River would prefer the greater stamina test that soft ground would provide. Most of the other principals, with the exception of Sizing John, go better on soft.
Report CheltenhamRoar March 1, 2017 11:52 AM GMT
Some absolute bile been spouted on this thread but coneygree been a far better horse than cue card really tops it all Crazy

Coneygree won a woeful gold cup on bad ground, the fact that Djakadam couldn't beat him that year says it all really.
The best horse coneygree has ever beat was djakadam. Name me another decent horse he's beat?
Cue Card needs soft ground, simple as that, if he stands up last year he wins as he likes, his age would obviously be a big worry for anyone backing him this year, but CC undoubtedly has that mix of class and stamina the only horse in the GC who has imo.


I'd be very interested in Empire of Dirt if they run him in the GC (unlikely though, Ryanair more likely)
He travelled like a class act in the Irish gold cup lto he turns for home like he's just joined in but I think that race was more of a fact finding mission for connections cause they were just hunting him round until the home turn, jumped the last and DP came right across him losing him valuable momentum but still ran on right to the line, extra few furlongs be right up his street, but connections made the same mistake with road to riches last year running him in the Ryanair when the obvious race was the gold cup.
Report impossible123 March 1, 2017 12:12 PM GMT
The age of Cue Card has been a talking point more so this year than last, why? Cue Card was magnificent in the Betfair Chase and the Ascot Chase - his 1st race could be a residue from a tough campaign last season and the King George was not run to suit; the best in this renewal (on known form) is Djakadam who he was running all-over last year before he tipped up; the rest have many pounds to find.

My memory does not go back very far hence unable to establish why an 11yr old had not/seldom win the Gold Cup, if that is the case. But, is age the main and overriding factor and not ability and established form or does it only apply to the Gold Cup?
Report Angela Rebecchi March 1, 2017 12:20 PM GMT
Age. Kauto won his last Gold Cup at 9, and was a faded force at 11 though very well backed, even at 12.
Report cyclops March 1, 2017 12:27 PM GMT
"Running all over Djakadam".

Not through my eyes. The first three jumped three out together and none of them had been asked for any effort at that point. Djakadam could not have been travelling better at that stage of the race. Watch it again if you disagree.
Report Angela Rebecchi March 1, 2017 12:31 PM GMT
Cue Card was odds on and definitely looked the winner imho.
Report buddeliea March 1, 2017 12:37 PM GMT
Just watched it again

All three going equally well to my eyes when CC fell.
I see nowt wrong if anyone wants to use last years race to judge Djakadams chances this year,i did not see too much to put me off backing him.
Report impossible123 March 1, 2017 12:40 PM GMT
Many thanks.

From gathered info, Kauto appeared to me as more of a KG horse despite his winning 3 GCs; opposition, apart from Denman, were not world beaters ie he did not have the likes of Vautour, Don Cossack and a lesser extent Coneygree and Djakadam to battle with. Also, in his last two years he was PU twice and tbh not surprised he was beaten at Cheltenham again despite started 3/1 - he was way past his best, especially in the Gold Cup.

I believe this is the year for either Djakadam or Cue Card and both deservedly so if it materialises.
Report ReaseHeath March 1, 2017 1:01 PM GMT
Kauto Star won the Gold Cup twice not 3 times. In his previous run before his last Gold Cup attempt, he won the King George for the 5th time. He was only pulled up once after his second Gold Cup win prior to his final attempt - and that was at Punchestown in 2011 where it is conceivable he was still feeling the effects of a tough race in the Gold Cup.

He won 2 Grade 1s at 11yo and he and Denman were 2nd and 3rd as 11yo in Long Run's Gold Cup.
Report firstimevisor March 1, 2017 1:24 PM GMT
I'm a big fan of Cue Card but you cant make proper comparisons between him Coneygree and Djakadam. The 6 yo Djakadam was superior to the 6 yo Cue Card. In the 2015 Gold Cup, Cue Card was missing but would have been a big price had he turned up- he had been stuffed in he KG and was beaten a country mile by Don Cossack in Punchestown and Aintree afterwards. Coneygree won a GC on his fourth chase start, not many could do that, Cue Card certainly wouldn't, but injuries have ruined his career since then

Every year is a different year,Cue Card is on a great roll now, and I would like to see either CC or Djak win this GC, but my dough is on Djakadam.
Report duffy March 1, 2017 3:23 PM GMT
When CC came down last year Djak was going equally as well, the way people over the past 12 months have been so "matter of fact" regarding CC going on to win has been a bit silly, it was still miles out (relatively speaking), the hard bit of the race from a CC point of view was still to come... Djak not winning emphasizes that point.
Report Arklearkle March 1, 2017 8:42 PM GMT
Djak will soon be favourite
Report tomdeane March 1, 2017 9:04 PM GMT
Djakadam 0 / 6 in Grade 1 chases over 3m+ and Outlander 1 / 2 in the same category, with the win coming recently, in which he beat Dajakadam, and yet he's twice the price. That doesn't make sense IMO.
Report DECALEC March 1, 2017 9:13 PM GMT
Not in the same league as djkadam
Report buddeliea March 2, 2017 7:59 AM GMT
Quiet interesting that Djakadam has yet to win a graded chase over 3m and plus,yet has won two over 2 and a half m.
I had the opinion that Outlander was best at the middle distance and Djak more of a stayer,but the formbook actually has it the other way round.
Djak beat Oulander at middle distance,Outlander beat Djak over 3m.
None of us know if Outlander will stay 3m2 at Cheltenham, but the formbook says to me he could well have more chance than Djak does.
Interesting indeed!!
Report That is all March 2, 2017 8:53 AM GMT
Take away from who will win at the moment - does anyone on here actually think Djakadam will finish out of the front 3? As stated by a few on here now too, imo he's a cracking bet at 2.46 for the frame, proven GC form, you know he'll be upsides 2 out & if something does collar him then you're still getting a decent return vs backing other 'bankers' Altior/Douvan/Youknomeanharry etc.
Report harry callaghan March 2, 2017 10:41 AM GMT
i actually think the 2.46 is very tight myself in the place market and it's more because the race has cut up class wise

i know this seems like a contradiction but when we have seasons like we have with injury, such races with big pots like this become much more deeper and even more competitive races especially betting wise, with more runners wanting to have a shot at the the big prize

some really nice horses running here who on there day can surprise and ground will be key but i can see a full field and plenty of pace whereas if vautour thistlecrack don cossack and even coneygree had been running some of these top class handicappers would not be entertaining the race

anyway like i say personally i don't think he is an absolute gift at 2.46 but by all accounts he is in very good form so fair play if you think he is a gift at that price, i do not
Report buddeliea March 2, 2017 12:18 PM GMT
I would not entertain trying to find a 2.46 shot to place in any race....anywhere.
Just not my thing.No interest.

Do I think he will finish first three? No I don't.
I think Tizzard has two that will be in the first three,and for reasons earlier, I think Outlander will beat him again.

But as we all know.....it aint as simple as that!!!!
Report ZenMaster March 17, 2017 4:02 PM GMT
I hope no hearts stopped beating because he looked like being placed for all the money in world.

Tis racing.
Report unclepuncle March 17, 2017 6:30 PM GMT
Quite clearly doesn't last home well enough over 3m2f at Cheltenham.

King George should be his target next year.
Report unclepuncle March 17, 2017 6:33 PM GMT
Outlander just doesn't seem to like Cheltenham so he's another that should have the KG as his main aim - though no doubt they will both go for the Lexus at Leopardstown's Christmas meeting.
Report ZenMaster March 18, 2017 9:50 AM GMT
Quite clearly doesn't last home well enough over 3m2f at Cheltenham.


This thread was all about him getting placed, and without the mistake 2 out he would have been placed, but he perhaps runs a little too sweetly to stay the trip well enough here i agree.
Report rl91 March 18, 2017 10:42 AM GMT
A little off topic but I'd be willing to give Outlander another try around Cheltenham in the GC

Cue Card made him stop dead and he lost all chance straight away
Report trigger3 March 18, 2017 2:24 PM GMT
As suspected, he has gone backwards. The horse had no excuses, simply not good enough and he looks like more of a Ryanair/King George type although I suspect he will always fall slightly short of winning the top races.
Report duffy March 19, 2017 1:46 PM GMT
Yes, he stays "but not well enough"
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