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Cheltenham Festival
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20/1 Betfair Sportsbook and 16/1 everywhere else.
Can't find the quote from a quick Google search but I specifically remember Mullins saying in an interview after Djakadam finished 2nd that he may have to consider "alternative options" for him in the future.
Fair enough he's ran 2 great races in defeat coming 2nd to Coneygree and Don Cossack in the last 2 Gold Cups but are they really going to try for third time lucky?
I would be lying if I said I wasn't tempted to throw a few quid on Djakadam for the Ryanair at a price like 20's.
2 particular runs from Djakadam would tell me he is just as effective over the Ryanair trip. Okay, we will never know the conclusion as he fell in the 2014 JLT, however he was travelling strongly at the time. For me, the performance that would back up my point is his seasonal reappearance this season at Punchestown (albeit on heavy ground) when he wiped the floor with eventual Ryanair 2nd Valseur Lido by 12 lengths.
I think it's clear now that Ricci won't have more than 1 runner in the Gold Cup. If it's really true that Vautour wasn't showing the same spark at home hence the last minute change to the Ryanair, is he their Gold Cup horse for next year? Talk of Vautour facing Don Cossack and Cue Card at Punchestown later in the month (believe it when I see it) but if they were to meet and Vautour won you'd have to think Gold Cup would be the plan next year?
Can't see it myself but have noticed people on this forum suggest Douvan could be their Gold Cup horse next year. Depends how desperate they are to win it but Mullins has never won a Champion Chase and ecluding perhaps Sprinter Sacre and Un De Sceaux it's an average race next year.
Djakadam has now been beaten twice by Don Cossack and I can't see any reason to suggest why he would reverse form in future. He's also now been firmly put in his place at Aintree by Cue Card. Next years Gold Cup isn't going to be any easier than this year with Coneygree possibly making a return and perhaps Thistlecrack if he takes well to fences. Infact if you consider the fact Vautour was nabbed on the line by Cue Card in the King Geore (could be argued Vautour wasn't fully fit and was peaked for Spring) compared to Cue Card's comfortable win against Djakadam at Aintree, is that more of a reason for them to aim Vautour at the Gold Cup next year?
Either way, the 20/1 for Djakadam to win the Ryanair looks exceptional value when you consider how terrible ante post betting can be. If he makes Cheltenham there's only 2 places he's going and that's Ryanair or Gold Cup.
Can't find the quote from a quick Google search but I specifically remember Mullins saying in an interview after Djakadam finished 2nd that he may have to consider "alternative options" for him in the future.
Fair enough he's ran 2 great races in defeat coming 2nd to Coneygree and Don Cossack in the last 2 Gold Cups but are they really going to try for third time lucky?
I would be lying if I said I wasn't tempted to throw a few quid on Djakadam for the Ryanair at a price like 20's.
2 particular runs from Djakadam would tell me he is just as effective over the Ryanair trip. Okay, we will never know the conclusion as he fell in the 2014 JLT, however he was travelling strongly at the time. For me, the performance that would back up my point is his seasonal reappearance this season at Punchestown (albeit on heavy ground) when he wiped the floor with eventual Ryanair 2nd Valseur Lido by 12 lengths.
I think it's clear now that Ricci won't have more than 1 runner in the Gold Cup. If it's really true that Vautour wasn't showing the same spark at home hence the last minute change to the Ryanair, is he their Gold Cup horse for next year? Talk of Vautour facing Don Cossack and Cue Card at Punchestown later in the month (believe it when I see it) but if they were to meet and Vautour won you'd have to think Gold Cup would be the plan next year?
Can't see it myself but have noticed people on this forum suggest Douvan could be their Gold Cup horse next year. Depends how desperate they are to win it but Mullins has never won a Champion Chase and ecluding perhaps Sprinter Sacre and Un De Sceaux it's an average race next year.
Djakadam has now been beaten twice by Don Cossack and I can't see any reason to suggest why he would reverse form in future. He's also now been firmly put in his place at Aintree by Cue Card. Next years Gold Cup isn't going to be any easier than this year with Coneygree possibly making a return and perhaps Thistlecrack if he takes well to fences. Infact if you consider the fact Vautour was nabbed on the line by Cue Card in the King Geore (could be argued Vautour wasn't fully fit and was peaked for Spring) compared to Cue Card's comfortable win against Djakadam at Aintree, is that more of a reason for them to aim Vautour at the Gold Cup next year?
Either way, the 20/1 for Djakadam to win the Ryanair looks exceptional value when you consider how terrible ante post betting can be. If he makes Cheltenham there's only 2 places he's going and that's Ryanair or Gold Cup.
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Yeah definitely my thoughts also didn't realise he would be this big of a price! Worth a small e/w dabble at this stage. Thank you and keep digging out the value!
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Best of luck with it. It will be a great price if he turns up in it for sure but I just cannot see that happening. If we are looking for next year's gold cup winner I'd be starting with Djakadam. Will be only 8 next year so will still be one of the youngest in it. I believe his best days are ahead, not behind, him.Even a repeat of his last 2 cracking GC runs will put him bang there.
RR may well have Douvan for the gc but however how good he is, and he looks exceptional, Djakadam will be gc bound again as well. |
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It's a very good point and to be perfectly honest if he were mine he would be going back for the Gold Cup. But on the other hand, look at Road To Riches. Having finished 3rd behind Coneygree and Djakadam in the 2015 Gold Cup I surely wouldn't have been the only one who thought he was worthy of a second crack at it. However, Gigginstown clearly thought (and was justified in the end) that they had a stronger hand in the Gold Cup this year with Don Cossack and Don Poli.
Which brings to me point, is it possible that Mullins may have alternative ammunition to throw at next years Gold Cup and not just with Vautour or Douvan? Let's not forget Black Hercules, Shaneshill, Killultagh Vic or Valseur Lido. |
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Yep he could have lots of ammo but i would be amazed if they go gc route with vautour. No matter what this year's novices do between now and then they will still have it to prove in a gc whereas Jack's credentials are rock solid.
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I agree with the OP. Think they will definitely have a crack at Gold now with Vautour and switching Djakadam to the Ryanair looks a likely decision. 20's will do for me.
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Can't find the Ryanair market anywhere on Sportsbook though.
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Black Hercules is too slow for the Gold Cup; Shaneshill does not stay the distance as proven in the Daily Mirror and Rsa; Killutagh Vic still a novice and Valseur Lido needs soft ground or at least 30f on good ground.
Unless Douvan head for the GC - he must head for the King George 1st something I doubt very much given connections past history - and Vautour runs in the Punchestown Gold Cup in two weeks' time Djakadam will most likely run in the race he's finished runner-up 2x so far because he is the best GC horse WPM can conjure up I think. |
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If Vautour fails to show up in the Punchestown Gold cup in 2 weeks, why on earth would they begin campaigning him over gold cup trips next season. It looks like they began the season with the intention of campaigning him for the gold cup, then **** out of it and now won't even run him over 3m on a flat t ack. The horse has been dismally campaigned and if he runs over the shorter version in Punchestown I really wouldn't be surprised to see him going CC and Douvan going GC next season. That double is worth a speculative punt purely because they will go down n opposite directions in terms of races and surely both deserve better than the egg and spoon Ryanair. As for Djakadam, I agree he has to for gold cup, he's one of the best 4 or 5 chasers around and in other eras would be a dual winner, it would be folly to go for the budget airline race with him as well.
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Apologies, I've been going by Oddschecker.
16/1 Sly Bet 16/1 Paddies 20/1 Betfair (assumed was Sportsbook) |
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That 20's is still the current available price according to Odds Checker, 16's elsewhere. I'm having a few quid on, can think of worse bets at this stage.
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No you were right to go on oddschecker mate as it shows it there. But when I go into Future Racing in Sportsbook, doesn't show the Ryanair.
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Definitely there CCM - just need to scroll down a bit further as it's not lumped in with the other Cheltenham markets.
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Squeeky bum time for you lot for 11 months. Hard enough working out the Mullins runners the week before, let alone now.
I find it hard to believe that one of Vautour, Black Hercules or Killultagh Vic will not be ahead of him in the Mullins pecking order. |
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Cheers uncle. Was looking just at Chelts.
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Road To Riches will not make it easy for Djakadam either if ridden with a bit more restrain unlike this year's Ryanair against Vautour given good ground or better. But like most here 11 months before the event for any WPM/RW/RR runner and 20/1 is a price too skinny to accept for the period in my opinion.
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In this day and age you've got no other option than to try and seek out some sort of value in ante post. You may be right in saying that 20/1 is too skinny at this stage but unfortunately I can't name my price. As I've said before if he makes next years festival, he's only going to run in either the Gold Cup or Ryanair. Listening to Mullins is the quick route to the mad house but he was quick to say he would possibly have to look at alternatives after finishing 2nd to Don Cossack. That's before he was then well beaten by Cue Card. Horses such as Black Hercules and Killultagh Vic are completely unexposed in staying trips over fences. Let's not forget Djakadam fell in a JLT and was well beaten in the Hennessy and look where he is now. I can think of far worse bets at this stage and am happy to make this my first of 2017 ante post.
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Everyone has an opinion on value but when I compare a price such as Djakadam 20/1 for the Ryanair compared to Thistlecrack being 8/1 to win a Gold Cup it's a no brainer really.
Djakadam assuming he makes it - Gold Cup or Ryanair. Thistlecrack - never jumped a fence in public, may not take to fences and defend World Hurdle and although unlikely if he does take to fences given his age, could still run in the RSA. |
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Thistlecrack winning the Cheltenham Gold Cup 2017 is for the fantasists only.
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Fantasists? Hardly. If he jumps anything like OK, he is going to be a very credible GC challenger.
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There have been a large number of hurdlers who were going to win the GC and some of them were even going to skip their novice races and go straight for it. Most never even got to run in a GC and didnt win an RSA either.
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I'm not saying he's going to win a GC though. I just think its way over the top to suggest anyone who thinks so is a fantasist. Do you think they are Arkle?
Thistlecrack is a very, very high class staying hurdler will be 9 next March... so it wont be the biggest surprise if they try and head for the big one, assuming he jumps Ok. Obviously it isnt the regualr prper for a GC winner, but it doesnt take the biggest leap of faith to see him being in the mix. |
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CCM
I'm sorry Thistlecrack winning the Cheltenham Gold Cup in 2017 despite not jumping a fence in public is pure fantasy in my book - hence the 'lay' - with the likes of Don Cossack, Vautour, Cue Card, Djakadam, Road To Rices, etc. |
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Djakadam lacked speed, not stamina in the Gold Cup.
Very surprised if he drops back in trip. Yes, he won well over 2m4f on his reappearance but on soft ground, against lesser opposition. The "other options" could well be the Leopardstown Grade 1's or even the National. Can't see him as any sort of bet for the Ryanair myself. |
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Lacked speed? Cant have that at all myself... he was tanking along at the top of the hill and pulls Ruby to the front without him moving a muscle. He just gets beaten by a better horse on the day. Don't see lack of speed being an issue in the slightest myself.
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When they rounded the home turn, Don Cossack put Djakadam away in a matter of a few strides. The latter then ran on commendably, losing no more ground in the home straight though, admittedly, the winner was idling.
Yes, he always tanks along but is a thorough stayer to my eyes. He couldn't get away with lacking a change of gear in the Ryanair. |
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He did. I don't think that proves he lacks speed though! Don Cossack is clearly a top class animal who can do that to most horses. If they made more use of Djakadam over the shorter distance, I think he'd be just fine. All opinions at the end of the day.
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What price would we make Djak to run in Ryanair right now?
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Assuming Vautour wins easily at Punchestown next week and takes in the Champion Chase at Cheltenham, and Douvan heads for the Gold Cup then Djakadam could easily be single figure for the Ryanair. But there are dangers aplenty eg Road To Riches, Killutagh Vic, Bristol De Mai, etc.
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