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Eeternaloptimist
24 Mar 16 14:48
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A new King has been crowned. Will he remain on his throne in a year's time?

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By:
Mr Eboue
When: 24 Mar 16 17:07
If I were having a bet now it would be Thistlecrack.

I still can't believe his performance last week. Alpha des Obeux ran a cracker in second and would have been an impressive winner in any other year.

Goes on any ground as well which is a huge plus.
By:
duffy
When: 24 Mar 16 17:16
I'll be hovering over the back button for the WH on his debut over fences for any sign of a less than perfect transition to fences because that is surely what it would need to be with the GC as the target. With the memory of him relatively "sprinting" up the run-in in the WH, he'd need to be near perfect over fences for them not to be swayed back IMO.
By:
impossible123
When: 24 Mar 16 19:55
At 7 my money would be on DC again until an upstart eg Thistlecrack, distinguishes itself prior to the King George. I hope connection of DC would be very selective with his races - no more than three - and no King George because of the track; Douvan and Vautour unlikely to run with the former most likely be aimed at the Champion Chase and latter a doubtful stayer. Those that contested the JLT and RSA this year would not be experienced or good enough to trouble Djakadam let alone DC. And Coneygree needs to prove himself against Cue Card and/or Djakadam (again) prior before serious consideration.
By:
Eeternaloptimist
When: 24 Mar 16 20:10
Given the comments about Don Cossack needing space and his tendency towards claustrophobia I wonder if we may see a much bigger field next year with connections of the other leading contenders also sticking in any other 150+ horses they own to make his life just that little bit more difficult because given how things panned out this year he wasn't at any time involved in anything more than a five horse race.
By:
impossible123
When: 24 Mar 16 21:02
DC had 8 other runners in the Punchestown Gold Cup last year when he won. Even though he does not like to be crowded, which I agree, DC is ok if he is on the outside like at the Festival just gone and Punchestown last year but not between other horses especially when delivering a challenge just prior to/at a fence - DC jumps better and with confidence with a clear view of the fence every time.

I do not foresee an issue if there are 15 runners in next year gold Cup now that connections know how he needs to be ridden.
By:
ReaseHeath
When: 24 Mar 16 21:42
If you forced me to have a bet now I'd be with Coneygree at the prices - 16/1 seems very fair although you'd be beholden to the ground to a certain extent, Thistlecrack is an absolute monster but you'd want to see him jump some fences first. I think the DC price is fair too.

Trying to be more original of those at bigger prices Killultagh Vic is interesting, not owned by Giggi or Ricci so you might get more clarity about his target. I don't subscribe to any view that Blaklion was a substandard RSA winner or won by default either - if you look at collateral through Definitly Red he'd have the beating of Black Hercules and improved throughout the season.

The way Bristol De Mai finished in the JLT was encouraging too but he's only 5 so might be one to keep in mind for 2018 having gone the Imperial Commander route!
By:
Roger The Butler
When: 25 Mar 16 01:19
Loving the chat 51 weeks in advance. I'm already excited about the race.

Don Cossack
Cue Card
Coneygree
Thistlecrack
Vautour
Don Poli
More Of That
Blaklion
Djakadam

Obviously won't work out like that with re-routes and injuries, but what a line up that would be.
By:
Orsoncart
When: 25 Mar 16 09:50
Is this the betting w/o Douvan market?

Don Cossack (the Don)
Cue Card (turf muncher)
Coneygree (they never come back, yer right try telling that to SS)
Thistlecrack (the real deal)
Vautour ( stays longer than the mother in law)
Don Poli ( plenty of Shiite written about this one)
More of that ( being re-routed to the new race on the Saturday)
Blaklion ( makes Spartacus look like a bottle merchant)
Djakadam ( bridal ponce ). ........ Only joking lads
By:
impossible123
When: 25 Mar 16 10:43
Watch DC confirms the form with Djackadam, RTR and possibly Vautour if his connections have the courage to run him in the Punchestown Gold Cup. If it comes up very soft, I'd have DP over Djakadam as DC would be unlikely to run then.
By:
jasey
When: 25 Mar 16 11:29
These new Gold Cup trends may help.
Can't jump.
Hates Cheltenham.
Can only beat good horses when they are over the top.
Wins diddy races in Ireland.
Rated lower than Don Poli as a novice..

King Don will be hard to beat if at his best and injury free but defending a Gold Cup takes some doing.
By:
Ibrahima Sonko
When: 25 Mar 16 11:57
I dont like the idea of aiming a soft ground horse (Coneygree) at Wetherby as it usually run on fast ground, really makes me think connections think they have a fallen horse. Get and run it in the hennessey where it is always wet.
By:
cyclops
When: 25 Mar 16 11:57
Roger, I'd reduce your nine to six, though if Annie Power was heading for fences, as Mullins said he was considering, she'd have to be added, as would Douvan, should he aim at longer distances.

Blaklion won a modest RSA, given the disaster that befell NMH and the blood vessel issue with More of That. I don't think the race indicated future Gold Cup horse for either him or Shaneshill and neither does the rest of their form.

More of That surely can't be considered given he's now had physical issues for most of the past two years.

Don Poli is discussed endlessly elsewhere but, even on bad ground, I couldn't look at him, given how he struggled in the Lexus. He won't be getting any quicker.

Of the rest, Cue Card should certainly be shorter than the 20+ he is at present. Yes, eleven years old is getting on but it's hard to see any British challenger getting him off the bridle next Autumn and his price is likely to shorten.

Like More of That, Coneygree has seldom had an easy passage and he'd need to, firstly, return and, secondly, he'd probably need to improve at ten. And we also still don't know how ground dependent he is. Possible, but you might want better than the current odds.

Djakadam is solid but was beaten very decisively last week. Softer ground may suit and he may still have improvement in him but he'd need it.

Vautour we all know about and the arguments next season may be remarkably similar to those this season. Mullins is highly unlikely to say anything at all so you'd need to make your own mind up about targets. Did Ruby want him to go for the Ryanair because he doesn't think he'll stay or because he didn't think he was on his "A" game? He pointed out that he beat Valseur Lido by 6 lengths in the Ryanair as opposed to 15 in the JLT. But around 9/1 will be attractive to his supporters.

Thistlecrack would have to defy the stats of starting a chase career at 8 and there never having been a Stayers Hurdle winner who's done much over fences (from memory) but he's such a freak, he could just do so. But it's high risk and any blip along the way could well see him revert to hurdles, assuming he goes chasing anyway.

I don't see much from the novice ranks posing an obvious threat. Black Hercules, possibly? And Valseur Lido could come into the mix, while the forgotten horse is Road to Riches who just might have gone close in the Gold Cup on his favoured ground. 2m5f did not look at all adequate for him.

I think there's a limited number of horses that can even aspire to be Gold Cup pretenders and think the 6/1 against Don Cossack retaining his crown are very fair.
By:
impossible123
When: 25 Mar 16 16:58
It was a great shame Cue Card fell just as he was about to take it up with 3 fences to jump otherwise we'd have been able to ascertain whether Cue Card stayed 26f at Cheltenham for sure or not.
By:
ZenMaster
When: 25 Mar 16 19:20
Thistlecrack is almost certain to go chasing, and i would chance him to glide over them like Best Mate, but with a stone in hand coming to the last.
He could be the greatest since Arkle, the dreamers bet.
By:
DECALEC
When: 26 Mar 16 00:26
Or nightmares
By:
timtin
When: 27 Mar 16 18:52
Yes at his age Cue Card will have a considerable reduced chance to win it next season but I still give him chances if he stays healthy.

Douvan doesn't have stamina, he beat low grade horses all his career so far and without Vaniteux coming down he would've find himself in trouble. Talks of GC are forum streamed dreams.

Vautour will be the main threat to Don Cossack but he won't beat him, Mullins still won't win the GC. When he'll be 60-70yo and without a GC trophy he'll probably say to himself one day, I had the best race horse that ever lived in my yard, he was a proven stayer and I kept him doing pony tricks over 2 miles. Admittedly CH is the classiest race in the calendar but still you are remembered(the trainer and horse) for doing things outside of your comfort zone, not doing the same stuff over again. We all know the GC winners could never win the CH, but CH winners(Bula, Night Nurse) have come close to win a GC and a mare trained by his father even did it.
By:
Eeternaloptimist
When: 27 Mar 16 19:46
I had the best race horse that ever lived in my yard,

Laugh
By:
timtin
When: 27 Mar 16 20:40
Grin
By:
timtin
When: 27 Mar 16 20:41
WPM is about 50yo now right? 10-20 years to wait for a GC and those thoughts to cross his mind in case he doesn't win one Laugh
By:
northanlite
When: 28 Mar 16 08:52
about 50??? He's not far off 60
By:
wellchief
When: 28 Mar 16 12:00
Very little from this year's novices will trouble the Gold Cup this year imo, but the interesting debate will be the ones who didn't run in this year's who will add the intrigue.

From the novices; Blaklion would suit something like the Hennessey off 154, and races like the Argento, but like Smad Place, I don't think he'll cut it at the top level.  Black Hercules looked very good over 2m4f, so I see no reason why you would change that, and Killultagh Vic is one who could go Gold Cup or Ryanair.

Thistlecrack is the big unknown, but I think we all need to calm down a little about his chasing prospects at the minute.  Although he is the best staying hurdler I have seen (and I loved Big Bucks), 10/1 for a Gold Cup a year before the race who has never jumped a fence in public is ridiculous.  Coneygree won it as a novice, but that really is the exception rather than the rule.

Of those who didn't run, Coneygree, Vautour, Road to Riches and Valseur Lido are the ones who would add a lot of strength in depth to the lineup.  As Timtin says, Cue Card's chances have to be reduced now, but you cannot completely write him off until you see him in the Betfair, or at least the Charlie Hall.

I could easily see him winning the Charlie Hall and Betfair again, as English opposition will be thin on the ground, so the King George will be the pivotal race again next year.

My very early predictions are: Soft ground you have to back Coneygree (day of the race bet though, not antepost), and good ground you could choose between about 4.  Don Cossack I would take on, merely because I think he'll be the shortest price of the lot and repeat winners are rare.  I'd take a chance on Vautour (NRNB obviously!) or Valseur Lido, who could do the Imperial Commander and Don Cossack route.

Truly gutted about No More Heroes - I genuinely think he'd beat the lot of them next year.
By:
Satrus_Froot
When: 28 Mar 16 20:33
Valseur Lido is the one who I find really intriguing at the moment, and he's 25/1. I'd love to see him go for the punchestown gold cup so we can really see what he's made of over 3 miles on good ground in open company. On the form of his first two runs this season being well beaten by Djakadam over 2 miles 4 and then stuffed before falling at the last in the King George, he'd have no chance in a gold cup. However he was only 6 then so is fully entitled to improve from that and his last two runs have been full of encouragement and improve is exactly what he's done. He's also convinced me he's not ground dependant going off both the irish hennessy run and his ryanair 2nd which were on proper heavy and very quick ground respectively.

Further improvement would have to come to be a gold cup contender next season no doubt. But I just feel he'll get better over a further trip as it looks to be all he does is stay. He clearly just isn't as quick as Vautour over 2 miles 5 and will never beat him at that trip to be honest, Vautour was just too good for him in the Ryanair. However the reason Valseur Lido was only 6 lengths behind Vautour this year as opposed to the 15 lengths last year isn't necessarily down to Vautour putting in a lesser performance like some have suggested, it's much more likely Valseur Lido is a far improved animal.

166 seems a fair mark and about right for now, and I'm genuinely not trying to put a big case forward for him 51 weeks out, it'd be quite daft to put a case forward for any horse that far out. What I'm suggesting is he is entitled to come on and if he can do that and get a nice run up it would be easy to see him as one of the major contenders and a single figure price come the day, 25/1 could look rather big come early May if he puts in a good effort in the PGC.

One other thing I'd say is VL looks more of a Lexus type than a King George horse. Quite possible Kempton was a bit too tight for him.
By:
impossible123
When: 25 Apr 16 13:57
With Don Cossack injured and probably unlikely to defend his crown in 2017 (only my opinion, mind you) I'm surprised Cue Card and/or Coneygree have not shortened for the event next year.
By:
sageform
When: 09 May 16 20:31
Cue Card and Coneygree have to be possibles if you are considering an ante post bet but with Don Cossack still an outside chance, Vautour might run, Annie or Vroum Vroum might run, Djakadam, Thistlecrack, etc. etc, I would not be tempted by less than 10/1 about anything at this stage.
By:
impossible123
When: 17 May 16 19:19
VVM is only 16/1 with PP but 45/1 here, only for very little money though. I think, with RR stating she'll be campaigned over fences, she could be WPM's only realistic chance of holding the CGC aloft next March. Here's hoping!
By:
Satrus_Froot
When: 04 Oct 16 12:18
I'm struggling to accept that Thistlecrack deserves to be favourite for this. He's a contender for sure after a faultless campaign last term but hurdling and chasing are different sports. I'm not ruling him out by any means as there's too many unknowns with the season not even underway yet, but I can't see how he can be much shorter at Christmas / New Year time than his already very short price of 6/1 - 7/1. We know the ground, the track and the trip won't be an issue but the larger obstacles change everything and we don't know if he'll be classy enough over fences yet. Many great hurdlers can lose a lot or most of their ability over fences.

The real issue for me is just with his price. He's going to start off in novice chases, I don't get how beating up average novice chasers can contract that kind of price much, if at all. Yes we can see how he jumps a fence but we still don't know how he'd truly jump a fence with regards to running in a race at the speed of a Gold Cup. Novice chasers can and do make it, we don't have to go far back to see Coneygree doing it last year, but there's a big difference. Coneygree was 10/1 on the morning of the Gold Cup where we already had the luxury of seeing him put experienced 2nd and 3rd season chasers to the sword, yet Thistlecrack is at best 7/1 over 5 months out before any of the contenders have appeared. Coneygree may have been ground dependent but even when the rain came and it handicapped a lot of others in the race he was still 7/1 at least.

I understand the Coneygree factor may have an impact on Thistlecrack's price but it's still a rarity and a big thing to ask from a horse. If you're into him then fair enough but I wouldn't be in any rush to be diving into him.
By:
cyclops
When: 04 Oct 16 13:44
Thistlecrack will have to do what no other Stayers hurdle winner has done. He'll also have to take to chasing at the age of 8/9, which is late enough, though Coneygree was similar.

And I have to agree with Satrus Froot, what can he possibly do to justify his price? With Cue Card around, there's little chance he'll go for the King George and with most of the big guns in Ireland, almost none that he'll come up against any other Gold Cup contender until the day itself. And, even if he gets there unblemished, how much shorter could he realistically be?

The easier he wins his novice races, the less relevant experience he will get.

Yes, Coneygree did it but no other horse since 1974. Short enough, at 6/1, for anyone, I'd have thought.
By:
rogerthebutler
When: 04 Oct 16 16:17
Re these last 2 posts (^  and ^^)

Why doesn't betfair have a 'like' button?

Great horse so far, but awful value for the Gold Cup
By:
wellchief
When: 04 Oct 16 17:19
I think its a shame, but I personally do think his price will contract, even if he does roll over some average novice chasers.

If he lines up in the Gold Cup, I think he'll be shorter than 7's (or at the very least being shorter in the weeks building up and then the bookies go out to get him on the day and he drifts).

We've seen it time and again, when a Mullins one wins a novice hurdle at 1/4 and is cut across the board at Cheltenham.

I can see Thislecrack being about 5/1 for the GC after his first novice chase.
By:
wellchief
When: 04 Oct 16 17:19
I think its a shame, but I personally do think his price will contract, even if he does roll over some average novice chasers.

If he lines up in the Gold Cup, I think he'll be shorter than 7's (or at the very least being shorter in the weeks building up and then the bookies go out to get him on the day and he drifts).

We've seen it time and again, when a Mullins one wins a novice hurdle at 1/4 and is cut across the board at Cheltenham.

I can see Thislecrack being about 5/1 for the GC after his first novice chase.
By:
SoYouThink
When: 05 Oct 16 21:48
He's a crazy price. To be honest, I think a lot of trainers are blinded by their desire to have a GC horse. Fair play to Tizzard for taking the risk but it seems such a needless gamble. When you have a horse who was so far clear of the remainder of the division last season, why not try and win it again? Big Bucks and Inglis Drever cemented their place in NH folklore by dominating the World Hurdle. And not even that only, but he's a novice and the GC is being mooted before he's jumped a fence. The whole thing is so ambitious that I think it's doomed to fail.
By:
rogerthebutler
When: 06 Oct 16 10:10
Exactly.

Was there anything wrong with going for the Novice Championship races? The Arkle even has been a decent stepping stone for future Gold Cup winners (Not that I'm suggesting Thistlecrack is an Arkle type).

Oooooh but 'Coneygree...Coneygree..Coneygree...'

Gloria Victis
By:
Howdi
When: 08 Oct 16 19:07
Soyouthink...they are very fondly remembered but you win Gold Cup you go into history. The games about winning Gold Cups ffs.
By:
shockster
When: 07 Dec 16 10:23
Here's my simplistic guide to where the value is for the 2017 Gold Cup.  There's arguments but it's where I am.

Thistlecrack should be backed on the day if you like him but still only 1 Novice in last 43 years has won it. Too short.

Cue Card is going to be 11.  No horse has been older than 10 since 1969!!

Coneygree is on the comeback, but only Kauto Star has ever regained the Gold Cup in the history of the race & also only 1 10yr old winner in last 25 years.

Djakadam is still young enough, but has been beaten twice in this race before (bit like The Fellow) but 12/1? No juice in it for me.

Don Cossack is best priced 12/1 as there are doubts that he will even turn up.

Valseur Lido has plenty to find for me and 12/1 has little appeal.

Native River won the Hennessy well but basically came out of the race the same horse as Smad Place.  I just can't see it being good enough.

Douvan surely won't run, but will probably get a 5 day entry thanks to Willie.

Empire Of Dirt appears to be improving fast but 25/1 unproven in open class is a bit tight and also

Vroom Vroom Mag has to be a major doubt to line up as I type.

Black Hercules at 33/1 interests me. The basic form's not strong enough on paper, but he just seems to do enough & I think there's more to come.  He should end up in the Gold Cup as Wylies runner as Shanehill appears to be staying over hurdles. By the way Shaneshill is a daft price on here should they change their mind (Never happens to Mullins!!!)

Minella Rocco was starting to interest me as last years 4mile chase was working out so well.  However, I think we saw how good he was at Aintree behind Many Clouds.  Could stay on but not quick enough.

Zabana, I put this horse up last year for the JLT. Enough said about the debacle at the start. He went on and won the G1 at Punchestown over 3m1f and although that form is way below the required standard I still think there's more to come. He's always going to be better on decent ground and 40/1 maybe worth a small EW. Doubt he'll win the Lexus on soft so could drift, but will be ready for March. Has course form so why not.

Of the others I've had a squeak on Gilgamboa as thought he did well in the National and then ran over an inadequate 2m last time just getting touched off. (No Laughing)

Can't have any of the others that have been round the block & it looks like More Of That won't fill his potential over fences.

So Black Hercules & Zabana 33/1 & 40/1 to keep me interested.  (I'd be interested anyway).
By:
impossible123
When: 07 Dec 16 13:01
Vroum Vroum Mag, after her defeat over hurdles at the weekend I'd hope (smidgeon only) connections would target this race as she has all the credentials but owner has Djakadam unless he bombs out in the Durkan this weekend.
By:
San Quentin
When: 09 Dec 16 18:46
stats are there to be broken.
By:
impossible123
When: 12 Dec 16 13:11
Cue Card is 7.6 here, twice that of Thistlecrack and 2 points shorter than Coneygree (comprehensively beaten by the former last time) and Djakadam, an exposed horse who was passed by the former in last season's renewal before the former came to grief at the 2nd last fence.

The present betting market reminds me of last season post the fall of Don Cossack - the most promising, unexposed and talented runner (then) in this race - in the King George; sentiment is preceding form in this market at the present time, I'd say.
By:
Jb23
When: 19 Dec 16 11:48
I guess the King George will shed a little more light than we thought it may do! Thistlecrack vs Cue Card.

....And Don Cossack pencilled in for a return! Oooosh
By:
shockster
When: 26 Dec 16 17:29
I've decided that Thistlecrack will only get beat if he falls!  This could also be a very small field. I reckon loads will dodge the race and go for the Ryanair maybe even Cue Card.
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