Cheltenham Festival
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Hi there, I see the call for JOCI and his trends, but that he is missing from the forum. I too miss that input. Last year, I swapped an email or two with JOCI, comparing my trends, with his, which I put out on the forum last year.
I think last year wasn't a great year for trends, horses Like FAUGHEEN bucked the trends (too few runs, to win a Champion, didn't run in calendar year etc).
However, in the spirit of giving Cheltenham Trends another go, and with today off, in prep for the Leicester v Newcastle game tonight, followed by the Tuesday morning trip to Cheltenham, for the week, I have taken Tuesdays races (except the Mares, where Quevega wrecked trend analysis) and spent 3 or 4 hours pulling the figures out for this years opening day. These will follow in the next few minutes.
I think last year wasn't a great year for trends, horses Like FAUGHEEN bucked the trends (too few runs, to win a Champion, didn't run in calendar year etc).
However, in the spirit of giving Cheltenham Trends another go, and with today off, in prep for the Leicester v Newcastle game tonight, followed by the Tuesday morning trip to Cheltenham, for the week, I have taken Tuesdays races (except the Mares, where Quevega wrecked trend analysis) and spent 3 or 4 hours pulling the figures out for this years opening day. These will follow in the next few minutes.
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My trends are slightly differently set up to JOCI's as they are weighted over 10 yrs, with more points scored in the last three years (10) scaling back through 9, 8 to 7 for the race 10 yrs ago.
Also the strength of each trend is taken into account (ie: the strongest - 10 out of 10 -have 100& weighting, whereas the weaker trends have a proportionately lesser weighting) Here we go. SUPREME NOVICE HURDLE 9 Trends used. TOP: MIN 100% 2ND: BUVEUR D'AIR 94.6% 3RD: BELLSHILL 90.10% 4TH: ALTIOR 89.80% BAR: 79.90% The favourite ticks absolutely all the boxes, and Hendo/Mullins really do seem to have it between them on Trends, and in the betting market. |
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ARKLE TROPHY
10 Trends Used TOP: DOUVAN 100% TOP: VANITEUX 100% 3RD: SIZING JOHN 76.10% 4TH: THE GAME CHANGER 66.80% BAR: 56.50% Seems clear on trends, that its another HENDO/MULLINS battle, where the 6/1 british chance holds all the right trend analysis, so maybe the only bet from this analysis is Vaniteux to win, or W/O fav, as E/W is only 2 places. |
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Excellent work DF! Thanks a lot
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ULTIMA HANDICAP CHASE
8 Trend analysis TOP: OUT SAM 100% 2ND: DOING FINE 94.20% 3RD: INDIAN CASTLE 88.70% 4TH: BAND OF BLOOD 84.90% BAR: 82.80% Really pleased to see OUT SAM come out with 100% trends in place, as I took NRNB that he would get into this race, at 8/1 on Saturday. Cannot believe he is still 7/1, now he is in the race, I think there is still some price reduction in that, as I would guess, that Timeform likely to have him on their radar too, in their analysis. DOING FINE a clear 2nd, and a big price at 20/1. |
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dfox
Agree with Outsam. |
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CHAMPION HURDLE 10 Trends analysis TOP: NICHOLS CANYON 94.30% 2ND: THE NEW ONE 90.80% 3RD: MY TENT OR YOURS 74.20% 4TH: ANNIE POWER 73.00% (Annie goes up to 80.8% if she had stood up and won last year) BAR: 71.60% Two are clear of the rest, by a long way, and NICHOLS CANYON and THE NEW ONE are both 6/1, so a good each way play, or maybe straight wins. Wealth warning: Faugheen had not got great stats last year, but visually, he looked so capable of winning, that stats went out of the window. |
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NATIONAL HUNT CHASE
8 Trends Analysis TOP: DEFINITLY RED 100% TOP: BALLYCHORUS 100% 3RD: VIEUX LION ROUGHE 97.70% 4TH: BALLY BEAUFORT 93.60% 4TH: VIVA STEVE 93.60% 4TH: WARRANTOR 93.60% BAR: 90.2% This looks like a turn up for the books, with the top 6 in the betting not featuring in the trends, including some strongly tipped up horses, from the biggest stables. However, these are the races (and also the handicaps) where some big odds winners/placed horses, may be possible, more often than not. I have read the form for DEFINITLY RED and BALLYCHORUS and they look extremely interesting horses in this races, at 16/1 each, compared to the skinnier priced favs. I have backed them both at 16/1, to win, and on reflection, Day 1 has a lot of short-priced horses, and not much chance to get a good priced winner, maybe with the exception of the two handicaps (c'mon OUT SAM) and this race. be lucky. |
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CLOSE BROS NOVICE HANDICAP CHASE
10 Trend analysis TOP: ALOOMOMO 92.30% 2ND: WILLOWS SAVIOUR 88.90% 3RD: DOUBLE SHUFFLE 87.10% 4TH: AMORE ALATO 86.80% 5TH: BALLYALTON 86.50% BAR: 81.50% This race has a string trend towards the top 6 in the betting, and this therefore makes those near the top of the market, the stronger on overall trends. Its tight at the top though, and wouldn't be dismissing any of the top 5 trends horses, if any of these are your own fancy for the race, the trends back up your choices. ALOOMOMO is the strongest, of the market leaders, on trends, and of those outside the top of the market, AMORE ALATO is the top one. So Warren Greatrex has both the top stat handicappers in each race, and I have included them both in a Trixie, together with his other Handicap market leader Missed Approach in the Pertemps (run on Thursday). AMORE ALATO may be worth and Each Way play at odds in excess of 20/1. Good luck for Day 1. |
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Great stuff deepingfox
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"Strong" trend, not "String" doh.
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Cheers Ibrahima,
Looking forward to Leicester's match tonight, and screaming them on to another high energy performance. Pleased to get Day 1 Stats out before I set off for the game, and see the value emerge in the National Hunt Chase, and what a great change Greatrex has for the handicap double on Day 1. |
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Willow Saviour
Double Shuffle Split stakes |
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Good suggestion Facts. Double gigure prices, and well up there on the trends.
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deepingfox thanks for the info - i'm hoping you have a good day because I've got Buveur Dair, Kruzhlinin, Ballychorus and Amore Alato in my L15
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Good luck Gordon63.
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Really good fox cheers.
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Cheers Fox
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Leicester did the business tonight. Not pretty to watch, but a wins a win. Could do with more of the same at Chelters tomoz.
Cmon Warren Greatrex, you can become the Handicap Guru. |
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Morning Deepingfox.....good work
Outsam lacks one thing,experience,14/18 winners 5-11 chase starts,however couple point/points help. He reminds me of ned stark who went off jolly last year,that may not stop him though. GL |
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best of luck deepingfox well done on the trends would like to thank you and joci for yere trends analysis as it allways gives us great reading
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ty for this miss joci best of luck mate great fun this trends buisness
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Shocking run from Out Sam.
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A poor day for trends, I do my own trends, but it only copped on Annie Power and Vroom Vroom Mag from 22 selections. Before this Festival became 4 days, the trends used to make a profit every year, with some nice high priced winners, but all we seem to get is favourite or near Favourite win time after time, now we have a 4 day Festival.
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Is the fox about ?
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Yes Indeed, the Fox is looking forward to 4 soft ground days at Chelters.
Unfortunately I think the trends will be less useful this time round, and study time devoted to Soft and Heavy ground runners. Day 1 KALASHNIKOV COGRY TESTIFY |
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IF done properly the race profile work is normally profitable in the non hcaps but best piece of advice has been given on this thread already, don't prioritise it over the ground
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The trends have done really well today
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Catch Me ifyoucan • March 12, 2018 5:01 PM GMT
Is the fox about ? |