Cheltenham Festival
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God's Own has got to be the value in the Champion Chase now at around 20/1 or 25/1 (30 on here).
Right I know he spent two years as a novice which would not be the traditional route a future Champion Chase contender should be taking but that was only due to the Punchestown Festival running into May in 2014. He actually won the Ryanair novice chase beating the likes of Felix Yonger and Champagne Fever and followed that up last season by getting closest to Un De Sceaux in the Arkle. And to re-endorse that level of form he was second in the Maghull behind Sizing Granite and arguably won have the race a few strides after the line.
That's clearly strong form in the context of this race because if you're of the opinion that the three past champions are on the decline, then the likes of Special Tiara, Sizing Granite and God's Own are going to come into it. This is God's Own time of year as evidenced by those runs in Punchestown 2014 and Cheltenham and Aintree 2015. They were much improved on his winter form.
If you look at the Arkle where God's Own had Vibrato Valtat 7L behind and that horse has been finishing beaten roughly a similar distance by Sprinter Sacre and Sire De Grugy, it makes the 25/1 look very big in my opinion. His most recent run behind Josses Hill was encouraging as he travelled like a winner and either the extra half mile or the lack of a recent run probably cost him in the last furlong or two.
It's coming to his time of the season and the drier the ground the better. The race may be run to suit if Special Tiara hassles Un De Sceaux for the lead. That would suit a horse dropped in. Sprinter Sacre and Dodging Bullets traditionally race handily too. God's Own just the type of horse to run past beaten horses and grab a place and if Un De Sceaux fails to deliver (who knows, he's much more vulnerable on dry ground). then he could grab a win.
Let's not forget either his trainer done a remarkable job with horses like Tartak, Nacarat and Module in races like this so there's no doubt he'll have God's Own absolutely at his best on the day.
Right I know he spent two years as a novice which would not be the traditional route a future Champion Chase contender should be taking but that was only due to the Punchestown Festival running into May in 2014. He actually won the Ryanair novice chase beating the likes of Felix Yonger and Champagne Fever and followed that up last season by getting closest to Un De Sceaux in the Arkle. And to re-endorse that level of form he was second in the Maghull behind Sizing Granite and arguably won have the race a few strides after the line.
That's clearly strong form in the context of this race because if you're of the opinion that the three past champions are on the decline, then the likes of Special Tiara, Sizing Granite and God's Own are going to come into it. This is God's Own time of year as evidenced by those runs in Punchestown 2014 and Cheltenham and Aintree 2015. They were much improved on his winter form.
If you look at the Arkle where God's Own had Vibrato Valtat 7L behind and that horse has been finishing beaten roughly a similar distance by Sprinter Sacre and Sire De Grugy, it makes the 25/1 look very big in my opinion. His most recent run behind Josses Hill was encouraging as he travelled like a winner and either the extra half mile or the lack of a recent run probably cost him in the last furlong or two.
It's coming to his time of the season and the drier the ground the better. The race may be run to suit if Special Tiara hassles Un De Sceaux for the lead. That would suit a horse dropped in. Sprinter Sacre and Dodging Bullets traditionally race handily too. God's Own just the type of horse to run past beaten horses and grab a place and if Un De Sceaux fails to deliver (who knows, he's much more vulnerable on dry ground). then he could grab a win.
Let's not forget either his trainer done a remarkable job with horses like Tartak, Nacarat and Module in races like this so there's no doubt he'll have God's Own absolutely at his best on the day.
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Around 10/1 ew 1,2,3 without the fav is ok with me, ?'s over SS DB & SDG make this a fair go for me to finish in the first 4 - ive watched Special Tiara and UDS over and over, ST can not lead UDS for any length of time imho, its not as quick as UDS and nor does it jump better at pace than UDS. UDS has never been headed and i dont think it will for any amount of time unless Ruby stops UDS from going to the front which i very much doubt will be the case. Good Luck.
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mrglovesthosetins - Special Tiara, by my memory, has never taken the first fence behind anything, and I cannot see Wednesday being any different. When UDS meets a fence at the right stride all would agree he is quicker and better than ST, however, he has fallen twice, corrected himself at Ascot repeatedly and if Special Tiara gets into a rhythm in front then he could put pressure on UDS making a mistake.
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We'll see, UDS is quicker from what ive seen and i dont think ST will be in front after 2/3 fences.
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If Special Tiara jumps the first 3 fences like it did at Navan (couldnt jump for Toffee) UDS will be 5+L's clear of it if its not on the floor !
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Sorry for the aftertiming but backed this in the w/o UDS market at 25's a couple of months ago, basically in the hope that it can run past beaten horses who try and take UDS on. Not sure there's much value left in the price now tbh but the drying ground will surely help a lot.
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Special Tiara is generally a better jumper than UDS. They're both extremely quick but I can see Special Tiara dropping back to second after a couple of fences as he doesn't have to lead. I like God's Own in this too, he's the only horse who's ever looked like beating UDS and I thought his comeback was very good and he just didn't stay.
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I know UDS has gone on the floor twice but the freshness that was in him on both falls (1st starts of season) will not be in him at Cheltenham as was the case last year when he jumped well in the Arkle. I cant have Special Tiara a better jumper than UDS im sorry. Smashing, Dunraven Storm and Sail by the sea all tried to take him on from the off last year and we all know what happened he burnt them off.
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mrglovesthosetins - agree, Special Tiara was poor at Navan but it was a seasonal debut. You site the only time UDS falling as being seasonal starts, so leeway for one and not the other doesn't work for me. ST has come on for the that run and all but won the Tingle Creek (and should have). I also think Special Tiara is a better jumper. I am not saying I don't think UDS will win, but at odds on we are entitled to try and pick holes and jumping is the only one he has. The Ascot run was more mature, but he took a number short and had to correct himself, and if ST gets in front or alongside, which looks likely to happen at the start then those mistakes could expose UDS jumping issues. There is more money to be made backing ST to place than there is UDS to win, so looking at it from that angle.
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Fair enough Charlie, its all about opinions, good luck.
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Beauty of this wonderful game. Good luck to you too pal. UDS first, ST second ......
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