Cheltenham Festival
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With all this number crunching, taking opinions into account, stable reports, video watching etc, sometimes it's just worth remembering that these are animals not machines and every year I watch a race and think 'how did I miss that?'
Listening to the commentary afterwards, it always seems so obvious. Horse ABC has kicked away, Jockey ABC powers the horse home etc.
So, in advance, what do you think commentaries for next week will tell you?
Champion Hurdle
.....Peace and Co kicks away down the hill and Daryl Jacob quickly puts 8 lengths between himself and Annie Power.....
Why?
Because the principals are mainly 20f+ horses and may be tapped for a bit of toe at a crucial point in the race. They'll catch up, when running up the hill of course but will the true 16f horses (Peace and Co, Identity Thief?) have enough in the tank to hang on?
Queen Mother
They're over the last and Sprinter Sacre is running them ragged once again........?
Gold Cup
It's Vautour all out from Djakadam and Don Poli is grinding them down yard by yard...........?
Put your spreadsheets and Weekenders away, it's time to listen to your inner voice!
Listening to the commentary afterwards, it always seems so obvious. Horse ABC has kicked away, Jockey ABC powers the horse home etc.
So, in advance, what do you think commentaries for next week will tell you?
Champion Hurdle
.....Peace and Co kicks away down the hill and Daryl Jacob quickly puts 8 lengths between himself and Annie Power.....
Why?
Because the principals are mainly 20f+ horses and may be tapped for a bit of toe at a crucial point in the race. They'll catch up, when running up the hill of course but will the true 16f horses (Peace and Co, Identity Thief?) have enough in the tank to hang on?
Queen Mother
They're over the last and Sprinter Sacre is running them ragged once again........?
Gold Cup
It's Vautour all out from Djakadam and Don Poli is grinding them down yard by yard...........?
Put your spreadsheets and Weekenders away, it's time to listen to your inner voice!
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.....and Annie Power is struggling to keep up with the pace.... she's fallen!, brings down Nichols Canyon and Sempre Medici unseats his rider! drama!!
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"£1 million in the bag if he can clear the last, . . . And he's over and will win the gold cup by a very wide margin" in the words of the over eager commentator " this is a one . Horse . Race . That . Horse . Is " ?
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In my mind Cue Card grinds it out and every time they try and get past him in the final couple of furlongs he keeps finding just enough
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I just composed Cue Card's winning comm 'in my head'.
I will start sobbing if I type it though. |
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...and as they jump the last in the National Hunt Chase it's JJ Codd on Noble Endeavour and Nina Carberry on Southfield Royale, clear of the rest...
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"And Holywell storms clear, 153 was a ridiculous mark"
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true but I can't see peace and co kicking eight lengths clear. he didn't kick eight lengths clear in the triumph.
five year olds also have a dire record in the race over the years, katchit besides. you could say "ignore the stats, listen to your inner voice" and in a way you're right but the stats hold up over time. Although I only take notice of stats if they backed up by logic. It may well be that five year olds aren't strong enough yet to cope with the demands of a champion hurdle, or don't possess sufficent stamina. In the same way, horses as old as Sprinter sacre don't tend to win the champion chase. You might get away with it this time, but if you back them over a long period you'll get found out. What you can be certain of is that the festival will provide upsets. All the hot pots won't win. So I'd use that as your starting point, rather than listening to some "inner voice" But you are right that it's dangerous to listen to the experts. there are so many opinions flying around before the festival, that it's easy to lose sight of what your gut instincts are telling you. In my opinion the best thing you can do as a punter is not to go in to heavy on the first day. Get a feeling for what is going on, what sort of horses are doing well, and then bet with more confidence for the rest of the week. |
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Btw I think your theory might well hold up on Vautour.
Now that is my inner voice speaking. Tom Segal said that he fancied him in the weekender and that rang a chord with me. He said he couldn't understand at preview nights how few people fancied the horse. I think he's one of those capable of blowing the opposition away and we all are sat there dumbstruck, thinking, how did i miss that? I mean he's done very little wrong since the jlt last year, a good second in the king george when you think about it. I guess the thing is when you do listen to pundits is to understand when they are actually saying something that makes sense, and alternatively when they are saying something for the sake of saying something, ie talking BS. But obviously that's hard to do. |
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approaching the last and don Cossack is almost at djakadam, they take the last together and DC lands with momentum and begins to leave djakadam toiling in his wake, he now powers toward the line with only Don Poli up ahead but is catching him hand over fist, he reaches the line and Don Cossack has done it.....won the Gold Cup and lapped I plod on in the process
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Min makes it 4 in a row for Walsh Mullins and Ricci! Quickly followed by and douvan absolutely annihilates the field in the racing post arkle!
There's the quick start us punters need, it's ok feeling yourself in but you need a good start there's 2 or 3 bankers on the first day. Last thing you want to do is start playing catch up at this place! |