Cheltenham Festival

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08 Mar 16 20:14
Date Joined: 15 Jun 01
| Topic/replies: 22,030 | Blogger: sageform's blog
Just looking at the entries and note that 26 horses are rated between 140 and 137 so it is not likely that light weights will get a run. The ones that jump off the page for me were Ballyalton, Killala Quay and Twelve Roses who all finished within 9 lengths of Faugheen 2 years ago and all were ahead of Cole Harden. Ballyalton is weighted to win on hurdle form but his jumping has been terrible over fences so Killala Quay looks best of those. Out Sam ran in the Albert Bartlett last year but fell so might not be a Cheltenham horse.
Pause Switch to Standard View Novice handicap chase Day 1.
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Report rogerthebutler March 9, 2016 7:10 AM GMT
Twelve Roses had a bruised foot last weekend
Report sageform March 9, 2016 7:55 AM GMT
Thomas Crapper has run in 10 chases without winning. Surely unlikely to improve which he will need to.
Report paulo47 March 9, 2016 12:02 PM GMT
Out Sam looks well weighted on his previous (albeit 3 runner ) success , he jumped ok at Newbury but this is a different matter . Also not sure whether its a definite run here at 2 1/2 or not getting a run in the 3 mile handicap . Surely off 139 they wont look at the JLT/RSA .
Report Cash Is King March 9, 2016 12:22 PM GMT
Thomas Crapper is a 10 lbs better horse at Cheltenham on good ground. He's run with great credit at the last 2 Festivals and might have won on both occasions if he'd had better jockeys on board that had been a bit more patient when asking the horse to go and win his races. Charlie Poste in the saddle is a big negative.
Report spyker March 9, 2016 5:41 PM GMT
As ever with Jonjo the market will tell all but Rezorbi has been his only entry in this so 1 of my (small) pins landed on him - the 'f' is less than ideal though!
Report Pg25 March 9, 2016 7:27 PM GMT
Abit of a negative?! That's like saying Matt chapman is abit of a ****
Report sc1883 March 10, 2016 11:12 AM GMT
Becoming a bit of a joke this race, potentially could be 3lbs from top to the bottom. Probably best to make it an open handicap again with no limit. All trainers have done this year is try and get a mark in the mid to late 130's then hold fire.

Double Shuffle seems to be improving with every run and will be getting my small each way money
Report Money Tree cost me thousands!! March 10, 2016 11:30 AM GMT
How the hell is bally fave on his form??
Report Hussard March 10, 2016 8:56 PM GMT
I am very fearful for Thomas Crapper getting in. I fancy Aloomomo to jump them ragged a horse going places. Three wins in a canter. Hurdle prep to protect its rating.
Report duffy March 11, 2016 2:50 AM GMT
Out Sam is being aimed at the 3 mile race,(needs 10 or so to come out, which greatrex is hopeful for) Greatrex really fancies aloomomo in this race.
Report sageform March 11, 2016 7:25 AM GMT
Still keen on Killala Quay if he runs. I'm surprised that Ballyalton is much shorter as his jumping has been awful.
Report Cash Is King March 11, 2016 8:09 AM GMT
Thomas Crapper needs 6 to come out above him to get a run.

Ballyalton, Twelve Roses ,Out Sam and Fourth Act are likely to run elsewhere or wait until Aintree. That leaves only two more and TC will have a third crack at a Festival win.

Pg25 - Read my earlier post only do it properly this time.
Report Pg25 March 11, 2016 8:47 AM GMT
Just emphasising the fact he makes Pendleton look like she's been doing the job for years
Report Facts March 11, 2016 9:31 AM GMT
^ read CIK 's post again ! ( clue is in the word big)
Report Pg25 March 11, 2016 9:41 AM GMT
Just agreeing with him regarding poste being absolutely clueless! just chucking in my own angle
Report Hussard March 11, 2016 10:10 AM GMT
Can only agree on the posts above regarding Charlie Poste. The horse shouldn't be a novice in fact should have two festival wins. He is a huge burden to the horses chance but I think Aloomomo could be a stone ahead of the handicapper if not more.
Report Money Tree cost me thousands!! March 11, 2016 12:33 PM GMT
Bally is going for this race.
Report Money Tree cost me thousands!! March 11, 2016 12:33 PM GMT
Bally is going for this race.
Report Ibrahima Sonko March 11, 2016 3:01 PM GMT
Unoriginal but i like Aloomomo who was very impressive at Newbury, superb jumper and he ran well in a decent hurdle race since. Also like Killer Crow who looks a plot horse if he makes the cut.
Report Money Tree cost me thousands!! March 12, 2016 7:18 PM GMT
Betting would suggest Bally not going for it
Report Can't Catch Me March 14, 2016 8:03 AM GMT
Just had a good study of this race and agree Killala Quay looks a standout. Mixed messages about his liking for the course, but wasn't far behind Out Sam at Ascot on ground he wouldn't have liked, and now 4lb better off back on the better ground he needs. Hard to understand the difference in their price, albeit Longsdon isn't in great form.

Going to wait until tomorrow though now as may get some extra place offers.
Report Money Tree cost me thousands!! March 14, 2016 8:52 AM GMT
Was money for Bally in the Martin pipe hence though not going for this but now money's gone on him.
I don't think he has a winners chance.
Report Money Tree cost me thousands!! March 14, 2016 12:55 PM GMT
You can lay him @ 15
Fell last time and we know the stats for that.
Report marychain1 March 14, 2016 1:03 PM GMT
I liked Killer Crow and Ful Shift for this but now they have come out I have a shortlist of Racing Pulse, Double Shuffle & Thomas Brown.
Report sageform March 14, 2016 1:47 PM GMT
First objective fulfilled in getting Killala Quay declared-now less than half the price I backed it at. Ditto North Hill Harvey in the Supreme-only 38 today comparted to 70 yesterday!! Quite surprised that Ballyalton is running and at half the price of Killala! Have a look at his jumping efforts so far and see if you fancy him in a 20 runner chase. I thought that Will Kennedy was the problem at Warwick but he buried Richard Johnson last time. Out Sam goes for the 3 mile so that is one big danger out of the way. Plenty of dangers including Fourth Act but I am happy with my choice. Only 4lb from top weight to bottom.
Report Money Tree cost me thousands!! March 14, 2016 2:07 PM GMT
Yes sage looks a good shout well done on the price.
I'm laying Bally. No way should be heading the market on its chase form.
Report Facts March 14, 2016 3:25 PM GMT
Split my stake in this

Willow Saviour
Double Shuffle
Report duffy March 14, 2016 3:59 PM GMT
Racing pulse for me for last years winning stable, too bad to be true at warwick after a very good run before that and stable in better form, horse has always been highly thought of.
Report spyker March 14, 2016 7:27 PM GMT
Rezorbi been well backed very recently - got 50-60 and now 20's. It's not pw either so if it's sustained it will be interesting, gl for the week ahead all.
Report Swardean March 14, 2016 7:32 PM GMT
I am pretty keen on Javert here.  I horse I have been impressed with early season.  Emma Lavelle had a nice winner on Saturday and his absence may have been a blessing in prep for this.   Sean Bowen has been booked for weeks and think there is a bit of juice in its handicap mark on this better ground.  GL
Report ShannonSpray March 14, 2016 9:22 PM GMT
Have gone with both Thomas Brown and Bouvreuil, who Nicholls thinks has "a really nice chance".
Report Saritamer March 14, 2016 10:27 PM GMT
Katgary getting his act together over fences, has top festival form re 2nd in Fred Winter 2 years ago
Report __O1 March 15, 2016 1:08 AM GMT
On Tour or Five in a row.  Not sure which order though
Report __O1 March 15, 2016 1:08 AM GMT
On Tour or Five in a row.  Not sure which order though
Report sageform March 15, 2016 8:25 AM GMT
Killala Quay is 4 points clear on RPR ratings in the paper today. Doesn't improve his chance but that is quite a good margin in a handicap. My big reservation is stable form but he did win 17 days ago. He didn't seem to stay over 3 miles but was that trainer strategy to keep his handicap mark? There are loads of dangers as the list of selections on this thread demonstrates. One warning if you fancy KQ, when I beat SP by as much as I have here, they NEVER win.
Report roobuck March 15, 2016 8:54 AM GMT
I have backed Bouvreuil and Aloomomo

Think the favorite is going to be hard to beat, Greatrex could have a great day
Report Satrus_Froot March 15, 2016 9:16 AM GMT
PLent of sense in this thread. The four I had whittled it down to are Aloomomo, Bouvreuil, Javert and Thomas Brown. Really struggling to split them.

Killala Quay not for me. Not sure he's a natural chaser and Thomas Brown has him well held on Ascot form. Would hope TB will take to conditions.
Report Satrus_Froot March 15, 2016 10:28 AM GMT
Report squiggsy March 15, 2016 10:45 AM GMT
backed killala quay in this last year money down the drain for backers !
Report sc1883 March 15, 2016 5:55 PM GMT
how does money tree do it lol? Laugh
Report sageform March 15, 2016 5:57 PM GMT
The after timers will have a field day but after watching him fly the first 3 fences, I had to have a saver on Ballyalton in running and Brian Hughes turned him into a different horse today. Killala Quay never looked happy in front and was poor. At least I identified the key trial-the 2014 Neptune!
Report Money Tree cost me thousands!! March 16, 2016 10:13 AM GMT
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