Cheltenham Festival
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Top Owner market: Sky Bet
Rich Ricci: 11/8
JP McManus: 13/8
Giggintown: 5/2
Graham Wylie: 50/1
Simon Munir: 50/1
I put the same thread up as this last year and the prices in early March were: JP 7/4, Rich Ricci 15/8, Giggi 5/2, Wylie 20/1 and Simon Munir 20/1
2015: Ricci and JP both had 3 winners last year, but as far as I can see JP had more seconds, so I think he won.
2014 to 2010 stats below from poster SoYouThink last year.
2014... Gigginstown won it having started the Friday with 0 winners, they ended up with 4. Dr. Lambe was second with 3 and JP & Ricci had 2.
2013 ... Wylie and JP had 2 each, JP shaded it on countback as far as I can tell
2012 ... JP with 5 - Sychronised / Alderwood / Bellvano / Sunnyhillboy / Alfie Sherrin
2011 ... Gigginstown with 3 & Potts with 2
2010 ... Hemmings with 2, David Johnson with 2, Hammer & Trowel Syndicate with 2, draw on countback between Hemmings and Johnson with 1 second each
So it looks like you need around four to win it. Ricci has a lot of favourites chances, but JP will have loads of handicap runners.
I think Ricci is the most likely winner over JP, despite JP having loads of handicap runners. Ricci has short price favs in Min, Douvan, Limin, VVM and Annie Power, plus double handed in the Gold Cup.
Rich Ricci: 11/8
JP McManus: 13/8
Giggintown: 5/2
Graham Wylie: 50/1
Simon Munir: 50/1
I put the same thread up as this last year and the prices in early March were: JP 7/4, Rich Ricci 15/8, Giggi 5/2, Wylie 20/1 and Simon Munir 20/1
2015: Ricci and JP both had 3 winners last year, but as far as I can see JP had more seconds, so I think he won.
2014 to 2010 stats below from poster SoYouThink last year.
2014... Gigginstown won it having started the Friday with 0 winners, they ended up with 4. Dr. Lambe was second with 3 and JP & Ricci had 2.
2013 ... Wylie and JP had 2 each, JP shaded it on countback as far as I can tell
2012 ... JP with 5 - Sychronised / Alderwood / Bellvano / Sunnyhillboy / Alfie Sherrin
2011 ... Gigginstown with 3 & Potts with 2
2010 ... Hemmings with 2, David Johnson with 2, Hammer & Trowel Syndicate with 2, draw on countback between Hemmings and Johnson with 1 second each
So it looks like you need around four to win it. Ricci has a lot of favourites chances, but JP will have loads of handicap runners.
I think Ricci is the most likely winner over JP, despite JP having loads of handicap runners. Ricci has short price favs in Min, Douvan, Limin, VVM and Annie Power, plus double handed in the Gold Cup.
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I presume you are referring to the Festival only? I'm surprised that Ricci is not odds on.
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Sorry, yes festival only.
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I think Ricci has a much stronger hand this year too.
Last year: Faugheen, Vautour, Champagne Fever, Douvan, Djakadam, Ballycasey, Annie Power This year: Min, Douvan, Annie, VVM, Limin, Vautour, Djakadam, Long Dog, Sempre Medici, Thomas Hobson, Townshend A massive loss to lose Faugheen, but if it typically takes four to win (sometimes 5), I can see four winnes and some placed in that second list. |
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I was discussing this the other day, whilst sifting through the entries.
JP has a mountain of handicap entries as well as leading chances with Yannworth, More of That, On the Fringe, Josies Orders and so on. It looks likely that RR will have some of his very best chances on day 1, if they oblige as expected it will be interesting to see what price JP us then... |
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I think Gigginstown are the value here. They've got plenty of well fancied runners: NMH, Outlander, the Dons, Road To Riches etc, but they'll also have serious ammo in the handicaps as well. RR has the high profile ones, but will have way fewer runners than Gigg or JP, so a couple of reverses and it becomes very hard for him to win.
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If it was money based, Mrs Bishop might have a chance with Cue Card and Theatre Guide plus a couple of other long shots.
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I fancied jp but hoped for bigger than 2/1
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