Cheltenham Festival
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29 Feb 16
17:16
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02 Apr 03
As always, this could well be the biggest factor of the whole week.... so what do we think of the main protagonists?
Firstly WPM. I think its really hard to get a handle on his stable form right now. Some really mixed messages imo. How can any stable who had 9 winners from his last 27 runners not be in good nick? But some well fancied horses have run absolute stinkers. Potters Point, Bel Sas, Gitane du Berlais, Tennis Cap, Voix du Reve, Merry Night all been beaten at odds on or thereabouts in the last few weeks. He's the master at getting them all at their peak for March and overall, its hard not to trust him, but I've got a nagging doubt in my mind tbh.
Paul Nichols - Despite the fact he doesn't have the horses he used to have, I think he could well be the man who has his string in the best form of everyone... seems to be peaking at just the right time and due to the terrible run he had before Christmas, he could also have some very nicely handicapped beasts. From putting up a ridiculous bet of him havign no winners at 5-2, I think I will be following his runners very closely all week!
NJH - Having written him off all season, he is another who looks like he could be turning the corner at just the right time... 6 wins from his last 25 runners, and they all seem to be running much better. Starting to think he may have a decent Festival. A few weeks ago, I was ignoring almost every runner of his but wont be now.
Alan King - Think he is the biggest worry for me (as a Yanworth backer). As all of the others have proved, you just cant keep yourself in good nick all season, and having been almost unstoppable the past couple of months, can he keep it going? If you take Winter Escape out, he didn't have a great weekend and maybe there were signs that he might just be heading the wrong way at the worst possible time?
Colin Tizzard - Another who has been in good form for a long time, which ordinarily might be a worry, but absolutely no signs of it stopping with him, and think he will have his in good form for the biggest week of the year.
Philip Hobbs - Has had 5 winners himself in the past 10 days or so, but another who may have peaked a bit soon this season? Won't be backing any of his string with that much confidence myself.
Still 2 weeks to go, and alot can happen, but what does everyone think. Who is on your hot and cold lists?
Firstly WPM. I think its really hard to get a handle on his stable form right now. Some really mixed messages imo. How can any stable who had 9 winners from his last 27 runners not be in good nick? But some well fancied horses have run absolute stinkers. Potters Point, Bel Sas, Gitane du Berlais, Tennis Cap, Voix du Reve, Merry Night all been beaten at odds on or thereabouts in the last few weeks. He's the master at getting them all at their peak for March and overall, its hard not to trust him, but I've got a nagging doubt in my mind tbh.
Paul Nichols - Despite the fact he doesn't have the horses he used to have, I think he could well be the man who has his string in the best form of everyone... seems to be peaking at just the right time and due to the terrible run he had before Christmas, he could also have some very nicely handicapped beasts. From putting up a ridiculous bet of him havign no winners at 5-2, I think I will be following his runners very closely all week!
NJH - Having written him off all season, he is another who looks like he could be turning the corner at just the right time... 6 wins from his last 25 runners, and they all seem to be running much better. Starting to think he may have a decent Festival. A few weeks ago, I was ignoring almost every runner of his but wont be now.
Alan King - Think he is the biggest worry for me (as a Yanworth backer). As all of the others have proved, you just cant keep yourself in good nick all season, and having been almost unstoppable the past couple of months, can he keep it going? If you take Winter Escape out, he didn't have a great weekend and maybe there were signs that he might just be heading the wrong way at the worst possible time?
Colin Tizzard - Another who has been in good form for a long time, which ordinarily might be a worry, but absolutely no signs of it stopping with him, and think he will have his in good form for the biggest week of the year.
Philip Hobbs - Has had 5 winners himself in the past 10 days or so, but another who may have peaked a bit soon this season? Won't be backing any of his string with that much confidence myself.
Still 2 weeks to go, and alot can happen, but what does everyone think. Who is on your hot and cold lists?
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Replies: 14
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Forgot about Gordon Elliot. I find him tough to get a handle on, as you can't always be sure what the plan is each day! But he is another that I think will be in top form for the Festival and after a slow start, could just be peaking at exactly the right time.
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Inclined to agree wrt Alan King. You get the feeling he was expecting more from his horses at Kempton
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David Pipe - also some signs of improvement in last few weeks after a poor season. Bound to have some handicappers lurking
Jonjo - No signs of revival yet Longsdon - Good start to season but been running poorly since xmas Skelton and Fry - Was very worried about theirs a couple of weeks ago but now seem to be coming good Greatrex - In the zone |
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What price Henderson for top trainer at the festival??
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16/1 bud.
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Cheers Catch,not bad price that.
The first day is a worry of course with the Mullins lot,but I may take a chance at that price. |
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CCM....Gordon Elliott is 11 winners from last 30 runners..so stable currently in good shape.
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I think all the big names are okay bar Jonjo. Has to be a bit of concern there now we're into March and he's had 4 winners in 2016.
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You can usually rely on the 'top' trainers to have their string in decent nick for the Festival. Usually I pay a lot of attention to stable form, but at the Festival I generally stick with proven class - and that doesn't necessarily mean the big yards either. Byrnes, Murphy, Mouse Morris, Jessie Harrington, Malcolm Jefferson never send lame ducks to Cheltenham.
One angle re trainers is to look at 'in-festival form' i.e those whose horses run better than expected on day one and two. Cottoned on to Nigel Twiston-Davies (who's definitely a 'hot or cold' trainer) a couple of years back and got some nice rewards as a result. |
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Venetia and Evan Williams, hot and cold stables as well
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Alan King. One runner today at Leicester. Tissue fav in the RP, drifted a bit in the betting but still went off 9/2
Pulled Up ..something looks amiss at Barbury Castle |
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King stats last 14 days prior to today: Running to Form (i.e. within 5lb of RPR) = 61%
Strike rate 7-32 (22%) Some high profile reversals over the w/e but his bumper horses maybe just ran into decent opponents, Grumeti and Medinas probably just are n't as good as they were, Ziga Boy was beaten by the handicapper and Gibralfaro perhaps a bit overrated as his trainer suggested plus race was not really run to suit. Don't think I 'd be too concerned just yet by those stats though the distances the likes of Grumeti and Pemba were beaten are slightly worrying when you look at their SP. |
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my mistake, the RTF was actually 66%
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Mr Henderson 20/1 now.
like that price. |