Forum Plunge 2016

needs to be under 145 for the mp conditional, cant see that! id run him in the coral cup, get him leading.... tighter course will help him see out the trip!

Mullins says he's one for the future, so will either miss the festival or surely it's the Coral Cup?  Jockey needs a kick up the arse for winning 'easily' by 4l against a 135 rated horse as that will probably discount him from the RP and The County is probably too short a distance at 17f.  The skill of the jockey is to make it look hard work!

He won't be going coral cup. If he dosent get 145 will go for the county

I can still see him getting 145 for that  racing post rating is 148 and they're always a few pounds over. Depends also the difference between his irish and English mark

Phil Smith will make sure he doesn't get a run in the MP - just like Diamond King. He'll overrate that performance in my opinion - but WPM will have darker ones than that for his benefit race, I reckon.

I can't see him being rated less than 146, and therefore too high for the County. He does well in the Martin Pipe but may have Townshend as his main contender for that (entered in the Supreme and Neptune which is different to his 8 other contenders, hinting at a touch of class, but not quite good enough yet to rival the better horses).

Therefore, I think it will be the Coral Cup and a chance to lift three big handicaps. The last two winners of the CC have been weighted above 145 I think?

Shrews I think you've got mixed up. Irving is in the count official 160. And is an open handicap.
The Martin pipe has a limit of 145.
Townshend isn't entered in the Martin pipe,
and I know the horse great field already before today's race iv followed his french career where his last 2 wins over 17f on gd soft were very impressive making all with a high cruising speed and pulling away at the end, hes always been a very keen horse and he was the lead horse who finished 2nd to min in a schooling hurdle at thurles after racing last year.
I'd be shocked if he went to coral cup he's far too keen on my eye.

Are we talking about Lil Rockerfella here guys? Or Great Field

Sts
Great field.
Anyway think we have gone off topic for the plunge and I apologise.

should be the plunge horse imo soon as race is decided, probs agree Scooby and will go county looking at todays race race again.... long run in would be only concern as they get racing further out in the county.

I think it'll be generally backed whatever so should look elsewhere for our pick. In spirit of the thread, we want to try and move market so perhaps be less obvious?

Happy to row in whatever. My choice at this stage FWIW would be Art Mauresque if turns up in Plate. 2-3 people max to be panel for final decision

Agreed thats why iv already backed GF before today.
I'm happy to back whatever as part of the plunge when people decide who's going to make the picks.

yeah good shout, i'm just getting a bit carried away. looked super impressive today! had it a few nrnb ew doubles and trebs yesterday so happy days!

@Scooby

Yeah, wrong way round sorry.

He may go for the County, but I just feel Mullins has Townshend for that (surely won't go Supreme or Neptune and his mark looks very winnable). Won't get in the Fred Winter, which just leaves the Coral Cup or two main contenders in the County.

Fred Winter? Shrews you're having a shocker mate! I think Great Field will probably join 5 or 6 of JP's others in the County. Although the Coral Cup is a possibility if they want to try to settle him

As for having 2 contenders - Willie will also 5 or 6 in each race, I expect.

@Delsie - Lol re: Fred Winter. My brain is getting frazzled with all these races

Personally i think we should have the racecselectors in place by this weekend and then let rip the sunday before the fez....maybe around six pm on a quiet sunday that way im sure we would see more reaction.

Agreed!

Shrews! You're alive. I'm glad to hear it. When are you going to update this thread....

http://community.betfair.com/horse_antepost/go/thread/view/94098/30461863/epsom-derby-2016---475-entries---1001-winner

There are people waiting for you.

I'd like to nominate Johns Spirit in the Brown Advisory Plate.

I genuinely can't believe they've managed to get his mark down so much. Ran a pretty solid race to finish 5th in the Ryanair off 160 a year ago and is now off 145. His last two runs were pretty decent imo, in competitive races and on the softer ground he doesn't appear to like.  His record at Chelts when good is in the description is excellent.

The negatives are that he doesn't fit the trends for the race very well and Jonjo has been in poor form, but he's turned it round in time before and at 14/1, I'm willing to give him the chance.

Cheers

I agree with 180 re getting selectors in place by weekend. My choice would be 180, marychain and one other.

Weights come out on Thursday I believe, give us a week to make our nominations, couple days for selectors to make decision and then charge.

Johns Spirit does indeed look very well handicapped and could bounce back on spring ground. The market obviously agrees as he's favourite, which tempers enthusiasm a little, but the 14s isn't too stingy. Certainly one to consider I think providing he doesn't end up single figures by the time we come to bet.

Agree that selectors should be in place by this weekend and bet placed probably the Sunday evening to give folk who are travelling down chance to get on. Any volunteers...?

My personal suggestion at this stage would be Vyta Du Roc for the RSA (providing they don't go NH Chase). He looks a very strong stayer to me and a good jumper. He's got very good previous festival form (would have been 2nd in Neptune but for belting the last), should enjoy the ground (though proven on soft if it comes up that way too). With question marks surrounding the market leaders for this (No More Heroes: No recent run, spring ground would be a question mark) and More of That (very inexperienced, no recent run, far from a typical RSA profile), I think there is plenty of reason to take them on with something e/w. What's more, the RSA is one of the strongest trends races of the festival, and VDR hits them all perfectly (all of the other principles "fail" the trends in many ways). I'm aware that some may be quick to crab the form of his Reynoldstown win, but I like the way he's been brought along pretty quietly by Henderson this season, and to me, his hurdles form alone entitles him to go fairly close here.

And dare I make another suggestion? If we land winner, we give a % of winnings to charity, Say Marie Curie that is gaultstats charity? Just a thought, nothing more

Fantastic idea roo.

Anyone know if 145 is rock the world's official uk handicap mark? Or is that his irish mark

Without looking scooby if taking it from RP and last run was in Ireland, fairly sure it's the Irish mark

Thanks roobuck, Last run was in england, but might still be the case as Looks lenient to me.
Anyway I'll keep an eye on the thread for the chosen selections.  And have a small play

Like VYTA DU ROCK for RSA, but even more keen on SOLSTICE STAR (NRNB) at 20/1 for the Martin Pipe.

Somebodys charged before me on Vyta Du Rock :( , gonna try to snaffle a little bit of 14/1 with as many 888 accounts as I can lay my hands on

If you are looking for a value EW bet in the RSA then could do worse than Monksland at 33's,not far behind Outlander and NMH this season.

Pendleton?

Regarding Johns Spirit, this season aside where he appears to have gone off the boil a little, his course form at Cheltenham is very different from Old to New Course.
Prior to this season he had run 4 times on the Old Course winning 3 and being beaten a head in a Paddy Power in the other.
He had run 3 times on the New with his 15l 4th in the 2014 Plate being the closest he has got - one of these was a Ryanair tbf.
Nonetheless, I think he has a marked preference for the Old course and couldn't fancy him on the New.

Great Fields given 13lb less than Irving (160) for the County, so 147 and too high for the MP.

What are we looking for here, I bet we could easily latch onto three handicappers at the right statistical age who won LTO at 14/1 apiece. And that'd be a 3374/1 treble .....  with an Eway patent costing 14 quid which could return 4,246.38 (with 3 placed bringing 151 squids) .... (1 quid trixie = 4,193 with 2 placed making a 50% profit)

*rushes to form book*

Right come on then guys n gals. Only just over a week left so lets get things in place. Im happy to be involved but its up to you happy punting folk. If we can agree a panel by latest tomorrow then those involved in the selection/s can message each other and put forward everyones pros and cons to whittle down to our plunge horse/horses. Just remember it is a bit of fun on the build up to our favourite week of the year so lets enjoy it and have a giggle as well as a big old market move

Well I've made my suggestion, but I guess it's up to those who'd like to be involved to put their hand up.

Looking forward to it, as you say just a bit of fun

I'd like to see you all involved. Pick a strategy or two. Pick you're races, handicaps? Send out scouts for each race looking for horses that fit the criteria. Then possibly vote on contenders.

Le curieux fred winter.
Won his only start on ground better than very soft. Finished 4th in His most recent race (listed) was beaten 5 3/4 lengths on very soft ground.  Finishing infront of Chacun pour sois (5th) who had previously finished infront of him (2nd) when le curieux was a held up 6th at auteuil,  (Chacun pour sois won his only other race by 13 lengths)

Back in 6th behind le curieux was Forest forest who has finished  9L and 16 lengths by DEVICE the french leading juvenile, who would win the triumph doing hand stands.
  Forest forest previous race he was beaten 1 1/4 lengths by Indietir who on his next start went on to beat DEVICE finishing 2nd, 5 lengths  behind CHIMERE DE BERLAIS who's is the french leading female juvenile.

His previous race where he was 3rd, the 4th callet mad also trained be francois nicolle was previously just behind consul de thaix who henderson rates very highly.

He's been kept since November to preserve his mark with This race in mind.  F NICOLLE has even borrowed some brittish style hurdles from the jockey club to school him over, and the mark he has been given by Phil smith is exactly the same as his french mark nicolle was hoping he'd get.

At 33/1 nrnb. deffinately worth a punt imo

For the panel my vote would be in no particular order well chief marychain rogerthebutler and the headmaster, Geoff m would be another but not seen him posting for a while.

180, I'm happy with Orsons list, Marychain, Headmaster, and Rog. That's that sorted. You obviously make up the 4, but if nobody else wants in, or the posters above can't do it, then definitely wellchief.

I would just take the bull by the horns and start organising panel & selections, it's a bit of fun, tradition now, and I'm sure everyone will be happy with whatever you and the guys come up with.

Very best of luck.

For what its worth I have a customer at work who is good friends with the owners of Bentelimar currently 33/1 NRNB for both the Coral cup and county hurdle.Is ground dependant which race it goes in County if soft/heavy Coral cup if anything else. Whichever race it goes in it will be backed very heavily.

I'm happy to go with the concensous, I'll stay out of picking the selection with my track record in the plunge!  I don't spend enough time looking at the handicaps to pick one in them, and a lot of the value has gone from the graded races.

Headmaster Martchain and Rog are you in then? ^^^

all picks be better in a hat and more chance .. of a  result ..
professionals paid to tip horses go through Cheltenham with a winner... or ..  2  ... out of 28 picks ?.. often 8 losers a day ..REALITY ..not easy . 
Hardest track in Britain to go through the CARD ... ENJY IT AS NORMAL ... ONLY A GAME OF CHANCE..............Count me in AGAIN ..

Like vyta du roc. Think it's solid ew material. Rsa
If your looking at the Martin pipe, it's all about gigginstown. Normally with Mullins but looks like Elliott has them all this year - about 6 of them. At least one will be heavily backed , prob go off fav. Which one ? I leave that to you.
Fred winter, Nichols has had one placed at nice prices for last few years. Think his are close to top of betting though.
How about charbel? Bailey on fire and would just need to continue improvement to be involved. Leads and might stretch them all. Supreme.
They would form a good multi bet - even though I've only said 2 horses.

Happy to stick one up. We normally put up a time that we will stick it/them on here? How about noon on the Monday? Have to say I haven't got anything in particular at present. There was one I had half an eye on but it's already been pretty heavily punted into more or less favouratism.

Headmaster, 180 & rog - shall we have a pm natter?

wait for runners day before in a good open race with four places and over 6 to 1   to 25 to 1    plus  ??  e.w.  money back .
selections by players ..to number of votes per horse and take our chances ..maybe worth a thought for future .. ?
one each day picked by...... 10 pm........... night before ..if we get a winner decide ?? to roll it on to next day for maximum impact ..
even at this odds stacked against us ..? ...  WE CAN SAFELY CHECK IN TO GAMBLEAWARE SOON AFTER >?? ............ALL TAKE PART ..FUN BET >>?
Good Publicity if we all take part WIN OR LOSE ..

well chief you might as well get on this as well

I'll go with whatever the choices are but won't make the decision on which to plunge on.

Sorry

The initial info I got was correct and jp has bought le curieux. Set to run in the mcmanus colours and the 33/1 is long gone.

The initial info I got was correct and jp has bought le curieux. Set to run in the mcmanus colours and the 33/1 is long gone.

Also for anyone who fancies him you can watch video updates of lE CURIEUX doing fast work with THE STOMP and race course schooling over the brittish hurdles he borrowed on francois nicolles Facebook.  The stomp has an official rating of 151 and although entered, will Not be running in the county hurdle.

So how does "the plunge" work exactly?

Three guys pick a horse each and the same three guys plus a couple of their mates back each of the said horses with their fivers or whatever at a pre-determined time and this wall of money causes the prices to collapse?

Good luck with that project.

CIK. A pre selected panel get their heads together to determine which plunge horse/s are to be selected then at a given time with a given firm we all pile on,shake the market up,have a giggle then wait with our vouchers to see how we get on. Just a bit of fun but if a lot of people back the same horse at the same time then we will have a market shake up and a sea of blue on an odds comparison site. Obvs we want to win but as i say its a bit of fun on the build up to the best week of the year bar none

Draco county hurdle anyone? 33/40-1 - JP owned and looks laid out

Footpad, best form in Ireland, and I'm expecting a concerted positive price movement soon.

Clondaw warrior martin pipe ew 16/1 nrnb.
The only race he will get into and he has improved beyond all recognision on his flat form since his last hurdles run.
His last run over hurdles over 20f at punchestown behind sort it out and abre de vie was a cracking run imo. He was entered in the imperial cup This weekend but it's not suprising connections have decided to go straight to cheltenham off his mark of 134.

I am very keen to back this horse scooby but can't see him getting in anywhere. He's number 80 odd on the list for this isn't he? Obviously NRNB means it doesn't matter, but can't see him getting there myself.

Right - some Plunge news for you. Onehundredandeighty, Well Chief and myself have been busy and we have got a shortlist of three horses for a plunge horse and a trixie.

We are just holding fire to make sure the horses will be declared, but the three are all at lovely prices currently.

THE PLUNGE HORSE AND THE OTHER TWO HORSES FOR THE TRIXIE WILL BE ANNOUNCED ON THIS THREAD AT 13:00 ON MONDAY

Ccm he's 52 on the list.of the top of my head I can name atleast 15 above him that wont be in the race, id be hopeful he'd get in. 

Mary c thanks

Sorry scoob, you are indeed right. Must have been looking at one of his other entries. Still think he will struggle myself but have backed him for all of them NRNB just in case!

Gents.......with the greatest of respect,thats not a forum plunge.

Cash Is King has summed it up already

Think we are missing a trick here,there are some very shrewd people on here, who will no doubt have looked at the chosen races.

Stick the chosen races up tomorrow am, just to see if you get any views,that way you might get Irish angle for example,etc

Contrary to whats been said,its about winning,when is the last time we had fun leaking hard earned?

This is the meeting where success is all the more sweeter.

This may in future take the onus of burden, off just a few.

Whatever you decide,very best of luck.

Understand it isn't for everyone, no problem with that. No-one is twisting anyone's arm here. Anyway, in about 4 and a half hours we will be announcing a PLUNGE horse at a huge price, and two others also at very big prices.

going to Plumpton,Anychance someone can email or text to me as Betfair hard to acess there.Kind regards.

^^ Just pm'd you mate.

Looking forward to it lads,The Cheltenham roar is almost upon us

Will Hill currently the best priced or joint for all our three, BUT as they are still NRNB and none of them are confirmed runners yet, Freds/Tote or Bet £3.65 all look decent alternatives with the same/slightly shorter prices and the NRNB saftey net.

45 mins until Plunge time

Right then boys, it's that time...

The plunge horse and best price is The Romford Pele (Coral Cup) @ 40/1.

The two horses for the plunge trixie are Work in Progress (Martin Pipe Conditionals') @ 25/1 and Let's Dance (Triumph Hurdle) @ 12/1

You may wish to do a single on the plunge horse and a trixie, or just the trixie. It's up to you but let's see that plunge!

It is worth bearing in mind that none of the three are confirmed runners as such. We think that these are the intended targets for all three based on comments from connections but in the spirit of not wanting to see anyone do their dough, you may wish to take NRNB. I don't think you can get all three of those prices & NRNB so it is up to you whether you take slightly shorter prices and use the NRNB or take a chance and get those prices.

Well Chief, onehundredandeighty and I picked one horse each so when the winners start piling in we will reveal who picked what

Good luck all, hope you all have brilliant, memorable and profitable Festivals!

on with betfred

40/1 20/1 12/1 nr no bet

e way trixie

returns 51k

thanks for all your hard work

On the horse an charging.....

Max bet 10e/w with WH for TRP

I'm in lads.

Just put the single and the trixie on each way.

Off to Vegas if it comes in

Bet365 Trixie for £67786.56

Good luck all

All aboard!

Trixie for £55K with Sportsbook. Well done lads and fingers crossed

Get stuff lads.

We'll need to book a venue for our get together on Friday night where we can toast the three winners.

I'd like to spend the night snorting coke and quaffing bolinger.

Just for record did e/w trixie as well

And well done the 3 of you......good effort and a bit of fun

EW Trixie & Win Treble.

Thanks guys, best of luck to everyone.

Nice one guys, I'm in. Apologies for not helping sort this out, had major computer problems last week.

E/w trixie and accy https://i.gyazo.com/4440551ec309ccc1bf744f6cb62ae15d.png

Think I'll wait for the single as will probably get 5 places and 40/1 closer to the time. Also, I'm banned from everywhere that has 40/1 at the moment lol :(

What's a trixie??

Had a play at this... 40k for £3 each-way trixie with 653... good luck all... nice work gents... cheers...

At what time do the Bookies flinch lads?  I expected to see a sea of blue at this stage.

After Annie Power wins!!

I'm on lads. Thanks for all hard work. Been some great discussions last few months and now it's showtime. Best of luck to one and all!!!!!

Thanks to the three of you.
Trixie is on with Fred.

On with all three, thanks tipsters, just got to dig out my wheelbarrow

moneytree whats a Trixie ? its 3 high class prozzies at once , which we will all be able to afford when said plunges come in! hth

I've already booked mine

Good luck all.

I should really spend this evening making final selections for tomorrow / delving further into the rest of the weeks cards, but as I'm so confident in the plunge being a success, I may spend it typing up my notice.

The real test of confidence will be to see if I'm willing to put it in the postbox before the Martin Pipe.

Thank you for all your efforts. GL.

Hills still 1/5 123 Champion Hurdle and NOT NRNB TRP.

Not in. Good luck. Hope you fellas get major coin.

40/1
33/1
12:1

Willie Hill, best odds(or join best) on all 3

whos on the double left then?

laying the last two, sorry.