The Real Story Behind Ruby Walsh And The Final Fence

wow great piece!

kevin blake really is starting to come across as a really gd journalist not scared to talk about the subjects others wouldnt

I don't know, he highlighted it but then backs away from it at the end by saying If it isn’t broken, don’t fix it, and Ruby Walsh is unlikely to be changing anything about the riding style that has made him the best in the sport any time soon. as if to perhaps placate Walsh in case he was too pi55ed off with it.!

Also when he says Perhaps these numbers reflect an innate aggressiveness and fearlessness in Ruby that drives him to take more calculated risks and ask for more from horses at hurdles/fences that other riders would not ask for., this isn't what happens though is it, he does the opposite, he sits and let's the horse come up itself.

i no but he isn't stupid he knows what he's highlighted but then protects his own back. Fact is stats are there now saying walsh compred to most top jockeys is far more likely to fall.

at the last. He'll catch some serious heat for that piece and likely be snubbed by certain people in that world. Think compared to most otherr journalists its a big step forward compared to most who are scared to say anything about the amazing walsh family!! How dare us mere mortals comment on such gods!

Yes, fair point, he was brave to highlight it in the first place for sure.

Noticed him do a few things like this recently, cant remember exactly what, but something to do with bookies! Maybe we've finally found a journalist who will talk up about the real problems with betting companys! Not that crap punters group or whatever they've got atm, filled with people who are on the gravy train! I think his pod cast is doing really well (or something like that, not listened to it myself but apparently got a lot of listeners) so he my actually get to the point where he can do it off his own back instead of having to be a gravy trainer like so many! Defo the best thing to do with ATR by a long long way!

He's only stated the facts and they can't be challenged. A proper journalist in racing won't last or will be pushed out as a trouble maker trying to stir the pot on many peoples gravy train.

No journalist will ever take the bookies to task for the scandalous practice of stopping breaking even accounts, restricting bets to pennies. None of them will ever do it and ATR and RUK won't want it done as it may hit advertising. If someone does it the panel start to panic and they move the line of questioning to let the PR of the bookie off the hook. Simon Clare got ripped one day for a few minutes que a break then he wasn't on the show when it came back.

The bookies need to answer to why they pull many stunts also the government should get more involved but they only want the tax revenue. If they could tax drugs they'd do nothing to stop that or anything else. They do little enough already.

It's all a gravy train and nobody will challenge it because most of them ride on it.

The podcast is too popular and now if they say something it moves the market prior to it being all over ATR you could get some gems but now it is impossible to get that but it's very entertaining and very much worth a listen I find it humorous and listen every week more for the craic than anything else it's also very biased to Irish runners.

Without wishing to stray off topic, the issue of bookmaker restrictions has been addressed in the media quite extensively in the last six months. ATR were more than happy to publish this piece: http://www.attheraces.com/article/556131 as well , as this follow up on it: http://www.attheraces.com/blogs/kevin-blake/kevin-blake's-blog-(9-november) , so the notion that they want to dodge the issue is off the mark, IMO.

Regarding the Ruby piece, the stats alone paint a very clear and surprising picture, but personally I'm not willing to draw the easy conclusion based solely on the numbers. It isn't about not wanting to upset anyone, it is purely that I believe there is more to this than the numbers alone can tell us.

On the subject of Ruby's aggressiveness, I feel he is quite deceptive as while he might seem to be sitting quietly approaching obstacles, he has very long legs and does a lot of squeezing and riding with them, in contrast with the likes of McCoy who was all about using his upper body.

I agree with Duffy - I thought the first 85% was great but then he wimped out at the end a bit. Totally understand why, but I think these stats-based pieces allow journalists more freedom than normal as they don't have to put their own subjective view across as the inflammatory one.

If I was worried about upsetting people, I wouldn't have wrote the piece in the first place. Like I said, it is important to acknowledge that numbers can't tell the full story in a case like this and for me it was important to put that across to balance the piece as best I could.

@duffy & @tomdeane Spot on with your analysis. Total wimp out at the end.

Great article from a TOP MAN too many insiders in the game patting each other on the back. For what its worth i think its a confidance thing, huge pressure riding those horses, and in every walk of life no matter how good you are doubts can creep in.

For the record I'd like to say it is fantastic that there are (still) journalists in the game that are prepared to write pieces that people care about and want to read in the knowledge that the content may well upset a few people that most (other) journalists don't want to upset.

I thought the actual analysis - which must have been fairly laborious - was very good too, and did the first proper job of objectively considering the real issue (what happens at the last for Ruby and other top jockeys, rather than just quoting irrelevant statistics that I've seen elsewhere). I also take on board what Kevin says about making the point that these numbers don't tell the full story, but I suppose my feeling is that any observational, correlational study is based around reporting a pattern objectively, rather than providing any substance to why that pattern exists. So in that sense they can never tell the whole story.

If I had to guess about why the pattern exists, I think I'd go with johnoo1's idea above as well - confidence. That would seem to give credence to the bottleneck periods where Ruby has more falls at the last than is normal for him on a season-by-season basis. It certainly wouldn't put me off backing anything he rides, whether that's at Cheltenham or elsewhere, but it's an extra thing to consider given the proximity of Cheltenham and his current run - especially if the confidence/mental thing is a driving factor.

I agree with the assertion in the article that Ruby seems very self-assure as to his abilities in the saddle, but very few elite sportspeople are immune to self-doubt, especially when things are not going quite their way, and I'm sure there is a tiny doubt in his mind somewhere.

Another good thing that the article has emphatically shown is that this is a real issue relative to other riders, which, at the very least, is interesting considering Ruby is adored by so many.

Frankie on the flat is a prime example of the confidence theory

I would imagine that self doubt would hurt someone like Walsh more than some others that are perhaps used to the emotion as others perhaps may have that as an almost default position, whereas Walsh may experience hardly ever so the effect is more acute with him.

The only jockeys that had no doubts where LESTER and FRANCOME  they just knew they were the best, and having met both of them many times i can testify that they still think they are the best

Where did you meet Lester?

found the article spot on think kevin can do no more than call it as he sees it?

A family member was a great friend of m v o brien i got know him back then

Sorry folks, but I don't find this a particularly good article at all. Kevin Blake asks the question as to why Ruby falls at the final fence (apparently more often than most) and then doesn't provide any details.

The stats on offer are meaningless wrt to his question. If he'd some amazing insight as to approach speed, jump height and exit speed compared to other jockeys I'd be impressed (granted v difficult to do), but what he's written has been inappropriately used.

Given that he's bothered to go to the effort of digging out the stats he could have at least pointed out some of the more obvious aspects. He has wisely used the top jockeys in this but he hasn't discussed the nature of the races undertaken by them.

Its quite striking that the jockeys who almost exclusively ride in the UK have lower fall/unseat ratios than those who ride in Ireland. So if Kevin Blake wanted to write a more useful article his conclusions should also focus on the inferred stiffer nature of Irish fences over those in the UK. With Cheltenham approaching I'd be far more interested in findings regards horses being prepared for tough fences by jumping tough fences (i.e in Ireland) than worrying that Ruby has fallen off 0.59% of his runners that were leading at the final fence.

I'm sure he produced this article as he saw fit, but if we simply say great, good stuff then the investigative journalist in him won't be criticized and he won't re-examine how he generates his next story. We want insight that really is insight from journo's

LUFC

I think that's a bit harsh LUFC - I would have preferred the article to have been purely objective and left the story as the stats told it, but I think it provided statistical evidence for the first time that Ruby does have a problem, which is something that was lacking before. I'd say it was a pretty laborious task with so much data, too, and that the piece you are talking about would have required far too much time to put together. That would, though, be a very interesting piece...

Agree 100% with LUFC - there's a significant difference between Irish and UK fences. Tomdeane, Ruby most certainly does not have a problem.

were is the proof that irish fences are bigger than those on uk ? i can see some tracks may have bigger fences, but some in the uk will also be bigger than some in ireland? is it not to simplistic to say such a thing?

firstimevisor - the stats analysis conclusively shows that he has a problem relative to AP. We don't know why, but the pattern is statistically strong.

The reality is ruby is a very good jockey, and has ridden the best horses in ireland and england from the start. As for been one of the all time greats i dont think so, i would not have him in the top six, give it a couple of years and the media will be calling someone else the alltime great

Blake starts off throwing some decent punches then spends most of the article sucking up to Ruby. I hope he's not as lame in the ring.

Hmm...people may have misinterpreted my words.

I am merely saying Mr Blake shouldn't be using the data he's dug up to infer Ruby has a problem with that final fence....but while he has the data he can draw more telling conclusions. The issue with the fences isn't that they may or may not be bigger, but if Davy Russell and Carberry are coming off (statistically) more often then they clearly pose more of a test to the horses in Ireland.

All I ask is for the author (Blake) to use better use. He certainly (in my eye) hasn't made a reasoned argument wrt to any possible riding deficiency in Walsh and this is my principal issue with the article.

I've heard a lot of people say show me stats to prove walsh falls more than others at the last and then ill listen, till then i cant have it. Well that is answered in black and white here.

Ok it may not be a hundred million percent perfect article, but its the best article I've seen from a racing journo on a subject that others would just gloss over merrily (how dare we question ruby walsh, have we ever ridden a horse!) in a long time. I cant remember many other articles that would go against the grain of the gravy train? Im glad we've had a proper debate about the article and  not turned it into a childish squabble that happens sometimes.

Whatever we think reg the article we should be supportive of kevin, who in time could be a figure that may finally be able to stand up and ask the questions we deserve answered. He IMO seems the standout candidate to me, knowone else is doing what he is. Can someone please tell me where i can find his podcast?

How many times has Ruby jumped the last successfully whilst leading, a damn sight more than anybody else I'll wager. A stat the author has conveniently decided not to look at, as it would no doubt show his article to be a crock of sh!t.

In terms of falls/unseats at the final obstacle, Ruby had 47 such exits (1.39% of his total rides) compared to McCoy with 33 (0.65% of his total rides). Thus, Ruby’s mounts fell or unseated him at the final obstacle just over twice as often as McCoy’s mounts did.

After hammering those cases down to those that happened when the horse in question was in front at the time, the gap between Ruby and McCoy becomes wider, with Ruby having 20 such misfortunes (0.59% of his total rides) while McCoy had just eight (0.16% of his total rides).

Thus, it is clear from the above data that horses ridden by Ruby Walsh fall or unseat him more than other top jockeys and this is particularly pronounced at the final obstacle.

I make it that Ruby has fallen or unseated approximately four times more frequently than AP when leading at the last, by that statement, so surely the author has looked at it, and it strongly supports the case he has made?

Your missing my point. The author has only looked at races where ruby (and others) have fallen or unseated. He hasn't bothered to include races where ruby has successfully jumped the last whilst leading to give some balance to his argument.

Sorry GI, maybe I'm being dense but I really don't follow you.

Isn't it just that:

A) he's looked at all races where Ruby (and others) have been leading at the last

B) then considered the % of times that he (and the others have fallen)

But we, from that, see that C) the % of times he hasn't fallen is just the reciprocal of the times he has (e.g. 100 - 0.59, or 99.41% compared to 99.84% for AP).

As I say, maybe I am being dense here!

G1 Mac,
That stat you suggest might make the picture a little bit clearer, but if you were familiar with how this sort of data is collected, you would know that to get those results would require individual examination of nearly 30,000 races to cover the eight jockey's dealt with in the piece. Even with a team of researchers, this would take hundreds of hours. The numbers I produced took a very long time to collate and I feel they give a statistically sound picture of the situation. The piece acknowledges that Ruby is probably in front at the last more than the others, which is why I only compared him to McCoy in the latter stats. McCoy's average SP is quite close to Ruby's and given his aggressive style, I would speculate that he had a very similar percentage of horses that led over the last as Ruby, which puts Ruby's much higher fall/UR rate at that obstacle into context. I'm not claiming these numbers are perfect, but I do stand over them as a fair assessment of the situation.

Apologies @GI Mac, I see my error in the data reading now...

Interesting article
20 falls for Ruby 8 for AP and Davy
he is flucking useless this Walsh isnt he?
The main factor is that Ruby has been riding for Nicholls and Mullins.
The best horses in conditions races for the most part
ie they are being ridden to win
AP spent the last decade riding for JP.
Although JP has had fantastic hurdlers like Jezki and Binocular among many others it will come as no surprise to forumites that most
JP McManus horses are trained to be staying chasers.
What they achieve as novices is often not so important.
Hence the number of threads on the forum about JP non triers.
Held up out the back in novice races and then hosing up in handicaps off lenient marks.
You could say the same about Davy Russell from his time with Gigginstown.
I would suggest than when Ruby rides a Mullins horse it will be ridden to win. Prominently if not from the front. Involved in the business end of the race and more susceptible to a final flight fall than a JP or Giggy given an easy time with a career as a staying
chaser in mind.
The 20 final flight falls for RW v 8 for AP/Davy put up by mr blake is imo not comparing like for like
Maybe the only comparable jockey would be AP when he was riding for Martin Pipe before he went to JP in 2004
And lord knows AP suffered a ton of falls during that time.

...a little bit clearer? I'd say it would make the picture very clear. Ruby has ridden over 2,000 winners, how many of these winners was he leading jumping the last; 500, 1000, 1500? Whatever the figure is, it puts this 20 fallers at the last into perspective.

Which is exactly what I've said in my piece?

"Whichever way one chooses to view such data, one shouldn’t lose sight of the fact that 20 falls/unseats when leading at the last is a very small number amongst 3,370 rides and 929 winners in a period of over seven years."

I think this is the problem. It's hard to tell from the article exactly what your opinion is. I credit you for spending the time to examine the data and produce what I thought were interesting facts, but some of your comments suggest there is an issue and some there isn't.

That's because I frankly don't know if there is an issue. If it was as simple as black-and-white numbers, the stats clearly suggest there is an issue, but I don't think it is anything close to being as simple as that. Given there has been so much wild speculation and subjective chatter on this subject, my goal was to collate solid data on it, write a balanced piece around that data that put across both sides of the argument and let people make up their own minds. I expected people to take different views based on the numbers and they duly have.

Can't wait to read GI Mac's article proving that Blake's is a 'crock of sh!t.'

Point taken about the 'cop-out' conclusions drawn, but I thought the piece was just fine, and somewhat revealing. Good work, Kevin.

Sure but, for example, early on you say (excuse my paraphrasing)
“Ruby has the highest fall/unseat rate (5.28%) amongst those top riders. This is 30.7% higher than the average of 4.04% amongst the other seven riders listed above and is marginally above the industry-wide average of 5.03%... This is statistically significant”
but later on you say
“he isn’t going to be fooled by the randomness of his recent misfortunes”
Perhaps I have an insufficient understanding of statistics but I'd have thought your results can't be statistically significant and random.

For what it's worth, I thought you were on the right track, but didn't follow it through, when you talked about Ruby urging his horses on. I've watched him pushing with arms and legs to get the horse racing quickly, and then sitting quiet a couple of strides before the obstacle letting the horse make it's own mind up. He's focused on going forward to the winning line as quickly as possible which is a great attitude from a punters point of view but this can sometimes lead to him going quicker than he needs to (he rode Djakadam out against a riderless horse at Punchestown for example - it's not like it was always hidden behind him, it was alongside when he carved it up on the bend ). The extra speed while letting the horse make it's own mind up increases the risk of the horse falling. Sometimes it would be necessary to urge the horse along, sometimes not. It would be good to know the proportion of APs falls at the last when he was in a battle compared to those when he was going to win comfortably, and compare the figures to Ruby. The Annie power incident is a good example of the point I'm trying to make. I was at the track and when she fell I said to my mate "Why was he riding her at the hurdle so quickly? He had the race won." I've never bothered to check the validity of that first impression as I never wanted to see it again, but given your thought provoking article I took another look. Annie Power is travelling strongly round the home turn and has Glens Melody cooked to my eye, yet still he's urging her on to go as fast as she can then a couple of strides before the final hurdle he stops riding and she gooses it. I definitely won't be watching it again.

What's his strike rate over hurdles compared to fences, I'm assuming hurdles is a lot higher win ratio?

Autocue,
When I refer to randomness in that context, I mean in terms of the distribution of the falls/UR. For example, over the last seven years he has averaged approximately 2.5 falls/UR when leading at the last a year. Logic might suggest he can thus expect such an incident once every five months or so, but it doesn't play out like that in reality. They are distributed more randomly such as the three he has had in the last two months or the 21-month and 15-month periods where he had none. My point is that there shouldn't be any great significance placed on these short-term strings of results, but rather the emphasis should be on the longer-term statistics.

Thanks for the explanation. Good luck to you.

No problem. All the best.

Ruby has a huge problem with presenting a horse to the last, just have a look @ 3.15 in thurles today

Feb 25, 2016 -- 11:34AM, Autocue wrote:

Sure but, for example, early on you say (excuse my paraphrasing) “Ruby has the highest fall/unseat rate (5.28%) amongst those top riders. This is 30.7% higher than the average of 4.04% amongst the other seven riders listed above and is marginally above the industry-wide average of 5.03%... This is statistically significant”but later on you say“he isn’t going to be fooled by the randomness of his recent misfortunes”Perhaps I have an insufficient understanding of statistics but I'd have thought your results can't be statistically significant and random.For what it's worth, I thought you were on the right track, but didn't follow it through, when you talked about Ruby urging his horses on. I've watched him pushing with arms and legs to get the horse racing quickly, and then sitting quiet a couple of strides before the obstacle letting the horse make it's own mind up. He's focused on going forward to the winning line as quickly as possible which is a great attitude from a punters point of view but this can sometimes lead to him going quicker than he needs to (he rode Djakadam out against a riderless horse at Punchestown for example - it's not like it was always hidden behind him, it was alongside when he carved it up on the bend ). The extra speed while letting the horse make it's own mind up increases the risk of the horse falling. Sometimes it would be necessary to urge the horse along, sometimes not. It would be good to know the proportion of APs falls at the last when he was in a battle compared to those when he was going to win comfortably, and compare the figures to Ruby. The Annie power incident is a good example of the point I'm trying to make. I was at the track and when she fell I said to my mate "Why was he riding her at the hurdle so quickly? He had the race won." I've never bothered to check the validity of that first impression as I never wanted to see it again, but given your thought provoking article I took another look. Annie Power is travelling strongly round the home turn and has Glens Melody cooked to my eye, yet still he's urging her on to go as fast as she can then a couple of strides before the final hurdle he stops riding and she gooses it. I definitely won't be watching it again.

good point reg quickening into final flight, really think this is a significant factor not many have looked at

Just seen that 3:15 and it wasn't pretty!

opps

oops even

another one to add

missed racing today? am i reading this right he nearly fell at last earlier, and now has fallen at last again?

surely that percentage would take quite a bump up now, since only few rides since last one?

Ruby is a very good horseman,in his heart of hearts im sure he knows he has a problem, maybe he needs to see a sports sociologist. How he deals with it will be the measure of the man, it is easy for us to sit in judgement but @ the end of the day its the people that keep the game going that pays ITS PUNTERS THAT LOSE

I'm sure his heart is pumping just that little bit faster at the moment when he comes to the last, it seems to me that he's better off when he's in a fight as the situation makes his mind up for him, it's when he's on his own and has to fiddle that you can almost see the indecision.

On balance I'd take the view that even if he's clear and only has to get over the final obstacle I'd look for a stride and fire the horse over it, the fiddling brings about the problem.

It will certainly add to the interest at Cheltenham. You'll hear a pin drop each time he approaches the final obstacle.

A worried Ruby Walsh watches on nervously as Willie Mullins chairs an emergency meeting with stable stars, Vautour, Un De Sceaux, Douvan and Min, regarding whether Walsh should get the leg up at the upcoming festival

http://static1.squarespace.com/static/558f18a1e4b004f41ba210f5/55934a8be4b031b6bff53367/55c0284fe4b0dbc28eb0ceda/1445701143144/?format=1000w

It's in his head now...the only answer is a sports psychologist...certainly will make Cheltenham even more interesting as regards the Mullin's shorties...thought maybe PP would price up a "number of last flight/fence falls" market but probably scared of the backlash from Old Ted and co.

Cheers, a good read. Be interested to see what percentage of Ruby's rides are on novices compared to other jockeys, and what all the percentages would look like if you only included rides on novices.

888Sport are offering 8/1 for Ruby to fall at the last on any mount at the festival.