Cheltenham Festival
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Always a very tough handicap to figure out. Venetia and Pipe have 3 victories each in the last 10 years although their horses have generally been campaigned very differently. A word of caution regarding the fav.
From the handicappers official blog re Top Gamble's Game Spirit win:
Instead I went back to his last race, a competitive handicap at Cheltenham on New Year’s Day, which I knew was working out well. The winner Village Vic hadn’t run since, but Tenor Nivernais in second had improved another 4lb on top of that day’s form to be second again at Cheltenham’s late-January meeting.
Considering Top Gamble had finished a close third, and clear of the remainder, I thought it appropriate to keep him in line with Tenor Nivernais from Cheltenham and therefore raise him 4lb to 159.
As a knock on, Village Vic’s rating was also raised an extra 4lb to 157 despite the fact he’d never left his stable. This is standard handicapping practise – horses go down as well as up for ‘not running’ - but we do like the horse’s profile to support such movement, and as Village Vic has improved hugely to win good handicaps on all four starts this winter there’s no doubt that his does.
A little harsh on Village Vic: Up 4lbs for doing nothing. Off 157 would probably be race record and may now be aimed at the Ryanair?
Either way should run a big race and better ground can only enhance his claims.
From the handicappers official blog re Top Gamble's Game Spirit win:
Instead I went back to his last race, a competitive handicap at Cheltenham on New Year’s Day, which I knew was working out well. The winner Village Vic hadn’t run since, but Tenor Nivernais in second had improved another 4lb on top of that day’s form to be second again at Cheltenham’s late-January meeting.
Considering Top Gamble had finished a close third, and clear of the remainder, I thought it appropriate to keep him in line with Tenor Nivernais from Cheltenham and therefore raise him 4lb to 159.
As a knock on, Village Vic’s rating was also raised an extra 4lb to 157 despite the fact he’d never left his stable. This is standard handicapping practise – horses go down as well as up for ‘not running’ - but we do like the horse’s profile to support such movement, and as Village Vic has improved hugely to win good handicaps on all four starts this winter there’s no doubt that his does.
A little harsh on Village Vic: Up 4lbs for doing nothing. Off 157 would probably be race record and may now be aimed at the Ryanair?
Either way should run a big race and better ground can only enhance his claims.
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Heard nothing about the horse but if all OK, PFN targets this race and stable in decent form, I'd really expect a big improvement from Art Mauresque on decent ground
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26 of the last 28 winners were rated no higher than 141 in this. Quite a stat! Was quite keen on John's Spirit but reckon you need to find a less exposed type.
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12 of the last 18 top-three finishers came from the bottom 7 horses in the handicap
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Pleased to read Art Mauresque is being targeted at the race. He's going to be my chip away horse.
Stats there to be broken I hope  |
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All over Taquin Du Seuil @ 14/1.
I understand how the stats point to a horse under 141 that is unexposed, but I will happily take an exposed type like Taquin Du Seuil - 2.5 is the right trip, Cheltenham form, and can see TDS doing what Wicklow Brave did in the Vincent O'Brien County Handicap Hurdle and absolutely hack up. |
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Won't sit down properly and go through the handicaps until the 5 day decs are out, but skimming through the prices and the weights I can't understand why John's Spirit is favourite for this.
Ok, he looks to be reasonably well handicapped, but with a quick look I can already see a better handicapped one, Ma Filleule. Beat him ten lengths powering on up the hill in last year's Ryanair off levels. Same course (obviously) and same distance race this year and she'll only be 2 pounds worse off with him this time round. She's 20/1, John's Spirit is 12's. You work out where the value is. All she wants is good ground and 20/21 furlongs. I love it when she's in form as she jumps impeccably. I see she's also entered in the Ryanair so no guarantee she comes here as that race looks weak, I'm not saying she's my selection at all yet, but I'd much rather her carry my money than John's Spirit. |
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I'm sure I heard Henderson say before Ascot Chase she'd run in that and the Ryanair before being retired to the breeding sheds.
S'pose they might change their mind if Vautour runs in Ryanair. |
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Think Doctor Harper will go for this race and he could well go off fav. Could see him being a Pipe plunge horse.
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Ma Filleule retired to paddocks
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SAMETEGAL looks sure to run well in this, Cheltenham suits, jumps so well, easy win last week. Was travelling well in good Novice at Newbury when unseating, no fault of his own. Backed him at big prices for JLT on strength of that but didn't get entered.
Third in Triumph Hurdle shows his class. CANT CATCH ME, DOCTOR HARPER was tipped for the Ultima h'cap by Jamie Snowden, that's going up 9f in trip, cited his victory at Aintree last year over 3 miles. No harm if you NRNB FOR THAT ONE. |
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Be interested in Monetaire if he runs - has Pipe said anything in any of the interviews, previews etc.
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Taquin Du Seuil being supplemented for Ryanair so probably won't be running in this.
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Kings Odyssey if showing could outrun hos price improver?
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The money is saying Taquin Du Seuil is going for the plate,where did you hear it was being supplemented for Ryanair ?
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Monetaire - Pipe horses running well now and is off the same mark as last year where it went off a pretty well backed favourite. Travelled really well into the race but lost out to Darna who could breathe properly for the first time in a while. Appreciate there could well be runners this year who are finding they can now breathe etc, but the money seems to be coming now for this and if you look at those above it in the betting, it could well be close to fav again come race time:
Johns Spirit - Yard woefully out of form and prefers Old Course Taquin De Seuill - Could be going Ryanair from post above Sametegal - A clear danger Village Vic - Ryanair? Out Sam - Ultima and if it didn't get in trainer has said how he's a 3m horse so trip a concern If it gets in, it looks as if it will be close to the bottom of the weights to fall in with CCM's stat for the race too. 16's still available |
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Confirmation of Taquin being supplemented for Ryanair will come through at 6 day declaration stage later today. Connections would surely not go to the trouble and expense of supplementing if the Plate was still Plan A.
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