Cheltenham Festival
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As much as I think this is crazy, is it possible?
Now that Faugheen is out, the Champion Hurdle is wide open. I never gave this a thought as I assumed JP's runners would be My Tent Or Yours and Hargam.
As time goes on, MTOY looks increasingly like missing Cheltenham altogether.
Would JP be tempted? Doubtful but not to be dismissed just yet anyway. Would imagine all going well this year, the Champion Hurdle will be his aim next year. Stranger things have happened.
Now that Faugheen is out, the Champion Hurdle is wide open. I never gave this a thought as I assumed JP's runners would be My Tent Or Yours and Hargam.
As time goes on, MTOY looks increasingly like missing Cheltenham altogether.
Would JP be tempted? Doubtful but not to be dismissed just yet anyway. Would imagine all going well this year, the Champion Hurdle will be his aim next year. Stranger things have happened.
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you've got too much time on your hands mate. 1,000,000/1 to line up.
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Not 2016, probably 2017 if sound along with Min I'd think.
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If he did run, how would you price him?
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Jesus Paterson, don't do this to me
 I think they'd me mad not to be tempted.... But sure sense will prevail with the horse. As impressive as he was, he is in danger of being a little over rated at this stage imo and needs to show he can win a Grade 1 race and compete at the Festival before being talked of as a credible Champion Hurdler imo. Think JP will be quite happy for him to win the Neptune this year myself. |
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Impressive over 20f against juveniles eg Shantou Village (not Thistlecrack); he was not impressive over 16f, the distance of the Champion Hurdle hence I'd probably go 8/1 if supplemented (without Faugheen) but doubt it severely.
I might choose Min over Yanworth over 16f on good ground later this year should they meet up. |
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the horse shows a huge amount of improved form over an extra 4f yet everyone thinks he's a champion hurdler in waiting, he looks an out an out chaser to me, be more excited for him to go novice chasing next year rather than back him for a CH
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I dont buy the fact his improved form was due to the extra distance myself. He's won easily on every run. I definitely think he has the speed to be just as good at 2m. And plenty of CH winners have come from the Neptune route.
Agree he will be a Chaser though. |
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Good call about the neptune route, he just seems like a big strapping horse that will be even better jumping a fence and staying a trip, shows how much potential he has with how good he's been so far over hurdles!
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Totally agree. Built like a chaser
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I'm confused (not hard), they step him up in trip because they want to see how he is over the longer trip, you'd have to surmise that is because they were worried about Min, geraghty is convinced he wants the trip, Mcmanus has had the crown jewels on him.
Faugheen is out and now they are supposed to be considering the CH itself!!, my question is how good do they really think Min is then? Perhaps Mullins will sit up in his chair and consider Min for the CH, that should send Yanworth scurrying back to the Neptune!! |
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Don't understand the need for sarcasm here. It was only a suggestion and not exactly the most ludicrous that will have been put forward on this forum. I've backed Yanworth for the Neptune but it was just a thought.
A certain trainer was laughed at by Davy Russell at a Cheltenham Preview Night and plenty of others for even suggesting Coneygree should run in the Gold Cup ... the rest is history. |
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Or to be more precise, "Bradstock should have his trainers licence taken off him if he runs Coneygree in the Gold Cup".
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Wasn't sarcasm, (notice how I poke fun at myself in the very first sentence), I am just aghast if they are thinking this because it doesn't make any sense when they have already shown avoidance at running in a novice champion 2 mile race but are seemingly considering the premier 2 mile race.
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Where has it been suggested the reason they're skipping the Supreme is to avoid Min? King was quoted saying to Channel 4 he always wanted to go Supreme but Geraghty was adamant he would be better upped in trip and Barry got his way.
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Whatever way you slice it, it all flys in the face of stepping back again to run in a champion hurdle, when for whatever reason, the supreme over the same trip was deemed unsuitable.
On the Min issue, I believe that if he wasn't in the Supreme, we wouldn't have had the step up in trip in the first place, he showed bags of speed and was last off of the bridal in the Bumper and got shuffled back through horses falling back into his lap as much as anything else. Having said that, it didn't stop them stepping him up for some reason or other, so I can't see how they could consider stepping him back down for an even tougher race against more seasoned horses in the CH itself, unless of course they actually think it easier, which to my mind would mean... no Min. Incidentally, if they are considering it, why wouldn't Mullins be considering it for Min.? |
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Fair comment,not heard anything at all re avoiding Min.
They may be of course,but as hes been the most impressive novice of the season(imo anyway) I think hes simply going for the race that suits him best according to his jockey. |
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Personally think he would win both novice races from what ive seen this season..
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It would appear Min has the race in the bag 3 weeks away ...
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duffy. I dont think its got anything to do with Min and I disagree that if he werent running, the horse would be in the Supreme. As paterson said, BJG felt the Neptune would suit the horse better, nothing more.
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Fair enough, the Neptune would suit the horse better, how are we then supposed to get back to the CH from that point?
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Quiet easily if connections think the horse is up to it.
They may think like I do that he could win the Supreme as well. |
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I doubt they are even thinking about it though.
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Because its the Blue Riband Event and the pinnacle of the hurdling division? And the likely fav is out and it looks a very open race this year.
If they are sending the horse chasing next year, then why not try if he's as good as they think? I personally dont think it will happen, but its a perfectly reasonable question imo and Id be surprised if they havent discussed the option. |
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As far as Neptune horses go, do we need reminding where they ended up the following season? Clearly the trainers/connections didn't think their horses lacked the speed for a Champion Hurdle ...
2015 - Windsor Park misses this years Cheltenham but the 3rd Nichols Canyon is heading for the Champion Hurdle. Bearing in mind he had mopped up Grade 1's over 2 miles beforehand. I'm guessing your response will be, "they were avoiding Douvan". 2014 - Faugheen won the Champion Hurdle the following year and was likely to regain his crown this year. "Avoiding Vautour" perhaps. 2013 - The New One has ran in the Champion Hurdle twice since and likely to run for a 3rd time this year. "Avoiding Champagne Fever" perhaps. 2012 - Simonsig went on to win a Champion Chase the following year 2011 - First Lieutenant won but the 2nd Rock On Ruby won the following years Champion Hurdle 2010 - Peddlers Cross won and went onto come 2nd behind The Fly in the Champion Hurdle the following year |
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budd, if they thought that he'd have been in the Supreme, they wouldn't have stepped him up if they were happy with his speed or particularly his speed in relation to the opposition....if you think your horse has the pace, don't mess around with it.
Lot's of horses that run in the Supreme each year stay further, the trainers don't all go rushing to the Neptune if they are happy with their horses speed at 2 miles....they were concerned, or more to the point Geraghty was. |
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duffy. I think you are missing the point here tbh.
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I get the Blue Riband bit but whatever caused them to go from Supreme to Neptune must work against them going back the other way...geraghty thought the Neptune would suit him better, why do you think?
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I thought it was simply a case of Geraghty saying he would be better over further?
And if that is the case,it still don't mean he could not have won the supreme. To be fair hes looked bloody good at both distances. Patersons list of Neptune winners/runners is interesting. Off the top of my head a list of Supreme ones would be interesting as well....fair few stayers would be in that list!! |
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Because there isnt an option over further if they think he's up to a Grade 1 Championship race!
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Menorah,Al Ferof,Champagne Fever spring to mind, even Vautour is going 3 miles.
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Some poor Yanowrth Neptune backers are going to have kittens when they log on to see this thread with 30+ posts this afternoon
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Be frightened to look!! |
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Anyway, I've always been a big fan of this horses ability over 2 miles and hated them stepping him up,
 so I wouldn't even be against it, don't know why I'm arguing really |
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What price do we think Min and Yanworth would go off in this years CH?, let's say AP and MTOY's both run too.
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I'd say they would both be about 10-1
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I reckon Min would be half that judging by this forum.
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At least!!
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Agree, I reckon he'd be 7/2, reckon Yanworth would be no more than 7's
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