Is Cue Card too big at 14 to 1 to start favourite for the Gold Cup ?

What holds his price up is the fact that most of the racing world already imprinted in their heads that he won't stay and that is hard to shift, if he was in his second season chasing with what he's done this season he'd probably be 2/1.

duffy - racing people yes - but the masses are more susceptible to media bias and hyperbole and can be influenced - can see this one gathering a head of steam - for example i can see this being on mainstream evening news programmes

Can't see that myself, I expect the first mention of the GC to be the night of the race after it's been run, my memory is probably playing tricks on me but I don't recall there was a massive media push toward coneygree last year when we really had the David and Goliath story in the making and if they couldn't latch on to that one I don't see how CC rates any better.

Bound to shorten if Thistlecrack wins imo.

Rightly or wrongly, if Vautour is declared for the race, I think there'll be a massive plunge on him.  Especially if the word "good" is in the going, and "R Walsh" is next to his name.

If Vautour doesn't line up, I suspect Don Cossack will be the favourite.

In fact, I'd say it's a lot more likely that Cue Card wins the Gold Cup at 7/1 than he is likely to go off fav at 14/1.

Unless our next forum charge is on Cue Card in the Gold Cup but we all take the 14's for him to be fav before we attack

should be 50s imo absoultley no chance of being fav

because of the million pound bonus - a little (and mean little) like how NON racing fans in america latch on to a horse that gets the first two legs of a triple crown up - such horses are always masssively over bet because the general public get involved - i can see the media seeing this as an opportunity to turn this into our equivalent and racing take this as an opportunity to try and get this kind of hysteria - or put it another way if I was a decision maker in racing i would see this as a golden opportunity to get broadscale publicity. i know the same can happen on the flat (re trip crown) in the uk but have never thought the public has ever warmed to the flat like it has the jumps so think the opportunity is much bigger.

I guess for me its less about the 14-1 bet and more about how i hope racing recognises the potential and unique opportunity it has been presented with and gets their act together to maximise the potential.

I think the last Gold Cup that the media really got involved in was when Kauto and Denman faced off in their prime. 

Everyone was buying Kauto or Denman scarves, holding signs up etc. David Haye (who was then Heavyweight World Champion after beating Valuev) was pictured at Ditcheat with them both, and they made the normal sports news, rather than a 20 second end of hour filler on Sky Sports News.

It' a shame it didn't kick on after that.

I think 14/1 is about right. I think a few factors would need to come together to create the scenario. I see all the 7/1 has dried up, perhaps us Brits can get behind one of our own for a change!

I don't think he should be far away from fav, but it will most likely be Vautour.

Mullins mania will take over Cheltenham so can't see CC getting a look in

...although Mullins has taken a bit of a beating in the last week or so.

Djakadam, Shaneshill, Up for Review, Bellshill, Killultagh Vic all fell, dissapointing or out.  Still has the monopoly obviously, but not quite as invincible as he was a couple of weeks ago.

He won some big races with second strings, but he would have been disappointed with the 5 above.

It could be argued Cue Card should be fav or 2nd fav. Bumper, 2nd to SS and hammering First Lieutenant is some going at the track. Although i'm not having a GC bet yet, or at all, 13/2 nrnb on Cue Card isn't to be scoffed at.

The only thing in his favour is that the Irish money will be split.

However, cannot see how he usurps the 3 leading Irish players in the market. He is not a household name like Dessie or Kauto Star and this isn't the Grand National with a fairytale story behind it.

Not a bet for me as a previous poster above has said Vatour will be fav if he runs. If not can see DC being the plunge horse.

I think DC will go off Fav regardless, there will be an initial reaction when Vautour is confirmed and walsh rides but I think support for DC will gain momentum nearer the race, Djak will hold his position in the market and DP will drift.

The cue card story has substance. He has better course form than anything in the race, and is in very good form. Yes folk will look at the irish runners with their AP vouchers, but English based horses have won 8 of the last 9 gold cups.Don't overlook him because of the bonus headlines and all that bookies PR guff. His form speks for itself, and if the ground is decent he has a right good chance.

We are not talking about his chances (which  think you have overstated a tad) but the chance of him being favourite.

Two entirely different things.

Don't see how his chances are overstated there......it's all true.

Don't think he can reach being fav,but imo he should be.

What would put me off him for the race - and to be favourite - is solely the stamina issue. If he was out on his feet and, according to Paddy Brennan, not wanting to go a yard further when winning the King George, I just can't see him coming up that hill strongly enough on the day.

I don't want to re-open a can of worms here regarding Vautour, as I know he is a doubtful stayer, too. My feelings on him are very much more on the fence, though, as I think he's guaranteed to improve on his KG run in March and he may stay. He's only had the one crack at a trip approaching the GC one and it's debatable what that told us with regard to his ability to get home next month. Cue Card, throughout his career, has looked a brilliant horse at his best but he has, on more than one occasion, looked as though 3m is the absolute limit.

Charwell,
I think that the horse's chance of winning, and the chance of it being favourite, are well and truly connected. That seems to be the case in every race ever run.

If this forum is a way to gauge how people will be betting on Gold Cup day, there is very little chance of Cue Card going off as favourite.

Don Poli has his own thread, Vautour has about 9 and Don Cossack has one massive one.  Cue Card and Djakadam don't have any, despite largely being the same price.

I was be absolutely amazed if Vautour or Don Cossack don't go off favourite.  The "Don Cossack would have won if he'd stayed up" brigade will back him big, the Vautour "he'll stay on better ground going left handed" brigade will think there is plenty of juice at 9/2 and the Don Poli "he's a twice festival winner who just does enough" brigade will pile into him.

Us Cue Card and Djakadam fans are a lot more subtle and back our ones quietly

Whoever wins this years Gold Cup, there'll be a big "I told you so" thread popping up within 2 minutes

Well if that's true what Paddy Brennan said,then little point in him turning up!!

His trainer says hes a proper stayer these days, I prefer that,and what my eyes told me at Kempton I prefer as well, finishing really strongly.....something the current fav did not.

I agree bud I'm relaxed about getting ylthe trip all that concerns me is the opposition, and safe passage. How often do horses get further with age, not even mentioning the successful wind op. The window for Gold Cup winners is generally 7-9, but exceptions do happen. Being 10 is the only negative with any substance imo and as it's his first attempt we (I) can get past it.

Yeh,to be honest ive never worried about age and im no stat man anyway.
Hes the best form this season,and to be honest looks better than ive ever seen him,although there have been times in his career he has been very impressive of course.
The staying bit has to be a slight concern but that's the same for all of them aside Djakadam and RTR, who have been there and for me proved they can handle the extra distance.
That concern for me is countered by what I saw at Kempton and the trainers confidence.
Im not saying he will definitely stay, but I think he will.

WC I won't be adding to the new thread for a few days  if VAUTOUR wins cause I'll be  airbaged

My interpretation of the King George was that both Cue Card and Vautour were stopping in front with Cue Card stopping more slowly than Vautour. Despite that I'd personally give Vautour more chance at Cheltenham because there were potentially factors in that race which stand out for him over Cue Card regarding a Gold Cup.

Well that's not what my eyes told me, but there yer go.
I know which I would have over an extra 2 furlongs or so, the one finishing the stronger.
Still, doubts do remain about both.

I can't remember the thread but I posted up a comparison with the Novice. They went a fair bit quicker in the King George as you'd expect but came home quite  bit slower. In relation to who is the more likely stayer I'd argue we are looking at an incomplete picture. My view is that Cue Card was tuned to the minute for that race and that Vautour will be tuned to the minute for the Gold Cup. I also feel racing right handed and slightly jumping out to his right impacted on Vautour's effectiveness.

My personal view is that it is unlikely that Cue Card will stay well enough to win. I'm not sure that Vautour will either but the picture in my mind isn't as complete with him and I do feel that he will prove to be the better horse.

You thiink he was not fit enough at Kempton but will be at Cheltenham?
Can Mullins not get a horse fit for two races spread that far apart?
What have we got now then,trainers using the King George as a prep??

Agreed, and like said earlier if they want to find out about stamina they would want him properly fit so they could then make an accurate assessment of whether or not he would stay, they wouldn't want any weakening caused through lack of fitness as you then wouldn't know if the stamina was there anyhow!

Yeh, I don't think I can buy a horse not being fit to win a race like the King George,he would surely be cheery ripe to Win such a prestigious race as that.
When you look at how he was running all over a good field as well till two out,it's pretty hard to see he weren't fit.

I don't buy the fitness angle but I do buy the opinion that Vautour is likely to be a better horse in March as he has been for two years in a row.

But last season he did not have a race such as the King George as a mid season target,so was always gonna be better in March.

It's been done to death of course bit because it's such a fascinating issue we keep debating it, I don't see too much wrong with it tbh, anyway to counter slightly the "how much better he'll be at Cheltenham" argument, I'd say that through the race and turning in he was travelling equally as powerful as he did at the festival last year.

We've seen his performances in the last 2 years at the festival and quite understandably assume that at any other point in the year we're not going to see the like, but this was the KG and I think he was fit and if the race was stopped with two to go I don't think anyone would argue he hadn't put in as good a performance as he has ever done.

Being happy with his fitness and his well being evidenced by the power with which he travelled I am happy to put the late falter down to stamina limitation, of course it may be all wrong but it must be an understandable argument at least.

Is there just a strand of possibility that Vautour was beat by a better horse at Kempton?

Definitely over 3 miles but for me Vautour is a better horse per se. Vautour may very well stay but for me he'll build his lasting legacy if allowed to run in the Champion Chase in future years.

Well at the moment all we have for Vautour as a chaser is an impressive JLT performance and a close defeat in the KG.arest of his efforts ain't been that much to write home about imo.
Still plenty of time on his hands as he's a young horse compared to CC,but he's behind him right now.
My gut feeling is if he's campaigned going forward at no further than 3 m,he will achieve high ratings,probably higher around 2 and a half m.

Not sure 2 m is his thing Duffy,but you may be right mate,of course.

I take on board the fact that he was probably trained harder for the KG than for novice targets the previous two seasons but I think the left-handed track and better ground he has had at Cheltenham is the reason for his swagger there the last two years.

One other thing that I think is overplayed (not by anyone on here per se, but in a general sense) is the idea that Kempton is an easy track. The three miles there takes plenty of getting when top-class horses run at a good pace in testing ground, so while the Gold Cup is obviously more of a stamina test, I don't think it 'runs' further than the extra two and a half furlongs of the GC. Another key thing that I think is often missed is that the downhill run before the straight at Cheltenham allows horses to get air into their lungs, particularly if they are strong travellers, whereas that isn't an option at Kempton.

All of that is a positive for CC and Vautour fans...

Indeed tom, I fully expect the King George form to stand scrutiny after Cheltenham. It has generally been the key trial, people may have forgot this due to Silvio Conti not acting round Chelt for whatever reason (Although the strange run in to LW's win leaves a few ? marks). We know that this won't be a problem for Vautour or Cue Card.

14-1 still available. Now third fav on exchange, getting closer all the time to DC's current place at head of market. Smad and Conti have advertised King George form. Cue Card's work partner won by half the track today. Cue Card is probably the most popular horse in Britain. It is also possible that the Irish betting will be split several ways. What is not to like??

With the current field Cue Card (CC) will never start 'fav' for the 2016 GC and even at 50/1 the price is still to small for it to start 'fav' in my opinion.

Current field ? im confused, the only reason he wont start favourite is that he is not trained by the 'supposed' elite.

2 points from being fav at the moment.

Colin Tizzard ,is, however fast becoming the current elite. On the day, Cue Card could easily become the popular plunge horse. It is also worth bearing in mind that when Tizzard horses are fancied they are truly walloped. 14-1 could be the bet of the year. Impossible? Give me some 50-1 !!

If the Tizzard string keep going like they are then I can envisage this happening.

He isn't exactly coy either, already stating as it stands nothing will get near Thistlecrack, and repeated good reports on Cue Card.

Destiny awaits! :)

call it a day

Not licensed to make a book one however we could make a charity of your/my choice as the beneficiary should you/I win, ok?

Impossible....I would donate minor body parts to ensure Cue Card wins the Gold Cup. On a more serious level, at current Laddies prices, only a point difference between Cue Card and favouritism. It would only take a little market readjustment to edge Cue Card to a share of favouritism...well worth taking a chance at 14-1 that it will occur.

callitaday

£50 to a charity of your choice - you nominate after the event - if CC starts fav at the off, if not, you can donate £1 to a local charity on my behalf at your end - I trust you to do that.

That sounds excellent. I will make it a tenner to represent more realistic odds.

Agree, I'd donate £50 to a charity of your choice and you, a £10 to a local one in your area.

CC now shorter than Vatour on the Exchange; only DC stands in way of favouritism. Best 12-1 shot of the year.

WPM has been "entertaining" the media folks today: if WPM reroutes Vautour to the Ryanair you'll win the wager, I'm almost certain.

Who is this bet with?

Only with 'callitaday' - just a bit of fun...for charity.

Presumably the OP backed it with a bookie though?

BF Sportsbook mate. Cue Card now 10/1 to be SP fav.

Cheers mate, had a little interest at 10/1. If Vautour doesnt run, I think it could only be DC or CC...

Love how they cut the 10s and don't drift anything else, 120% market

What is happening here?? Cue Card is second fav on the exchange and yet it is still 10-1 outsider of five on the sportsbook to be favourite for the race. I cannot understand the price. Surely it should be about a 4-1 shot? I am missing something?

Surely the layers are factoring in the "Irish money"

I think it's a definite Rick call it a day.

I think it's a definite Rick call it a day.

It looks crazy to me. I have had two pokes at 14s, don't want to curse the bet through greed. Irish money will go in four directions.....

Or maybe 3?

even at 10's it's still massive isn't it?

Yep!

Irish money will go 4 directions with the majority on Vatour and The Don.
English money will go in 5 directions with the majority on on Vautour and the Don.

Jasey, I cannot agree. Vatour probably will not turn up. Million money will hype Cue Card. It will be a straight fight between DC and CC, reflecting current exchange prices.  At 10-1 it is a steal. And the extra bonus will be when class horse in race wins as well.

I agree. Can't understand why still 10's. Great call. Took a bit at 14's and 12's since Sunday having seen it was still that price and read this thread when you started it. Certainly will give backers even more excitement in the build up to the race.

A bugger it, chucked a few quid on at 10s. Am already loaded up on him to win it.

Well good luck gentlemen. With both bets!!

What price do you foresee Cue Card being if he is fav?

I've took the 10's too.  Is this an unofficial mini forum plunge?

Could be wc, had a few quid myself for a bit of fun.

But if Irish have a good few days and most of their bankers come in, they will go large. Will it be enough to outweigh CC sentimentality? Going to be fun to watch, as well as the race

I've joined in at 10's.

Looks like I am on my own, again!

Market gone?

Just thinking, The £1million bonus is put up by the Jockey Club isn't it?

Won't they be hedging on the day?

Jase,
I am thinking about 7-2 joint favs on the day, with Djak and DP 5s. That is of course making vast assumption that Vatour goes elsewhere. There seems little money around for Vatour at the moment, whereas CC has been contracted , albeit steadily. It is all academic now because Sportsbook look like they have pulled the betting. Someone has probably twigged at last that a rick was being exploited.....

if Vautour goes Ryanair I could see the bookies wanting to take DC on and CC rightfully ending up fav.

Not a cat in hells chance CC goes off favourite.

If the ground is v soft then Djak and DP will be vying for favouritsm.

If the ground is decent DC will be favourite with Vatour 2nd fav (if he runs).

It really is as simple as that.

A lot of ifs

No ifs.

The ground will be v soft or it won't. Either way he ain't favourite!

Sorry, but if it's not very soft, then it's decent ground?

Vautour defo be fav now

Will depend on liabilities/accas running on from Irish bankers. If they come in yes Vautour will be fav but if not, the books will lay him I reckon

Same could be said to a lesser extent perhaps for Tizzard, Native River, Thistlecrack etc before Cue Card.

Don is 7/2 with PP but between him and CC there's only 1,5-2 points which on the day could sway the other way. Looks a good bet this but I still won't take the plunge as I'm too big fan of DC

This market is back now, but with PP.  Cue Card 7's with them.

Now clear 2nd Fav on the exchange and only a point behind DC. 7-1 seems a steal; last week's 14-1  was grand larceny.

getting more likely by the day, Cossack very weak last few days

mullins upbeat about vautour today , he will be the fly in the ointment regards cue card starting fav .

9/2 now

I thought this bet had no chance but well done it's looking very likely now,maybe Don Poli will be the fly in the ointment and not Vautour.
9/2 is that still to big?

Its looking extremely tight.

Thistlecrack winning half the track could be the difference. That will stick in the mind of the ordinary punter, then the million chat we could have a groundswell.

They'll be laying that back, the shorter it goes

They should turn up in the ring with 200k to punt at say 5/1, that should help

This has just got a lot more interesting.

It's up for grabs

*now

[b]Not a cat in hells chance CC goes off favourite.

If the ground is v soft then Djak and DP will be vying for favouritsm.

[b]If the ground is decent DC will be favourite with Vatour 2nd fav (if he runs).

It really is as simple as that.[/b][/b]


CC wasn't even close to being favourite at the off.......

Thanks Charwell. I wasn't aware of that until I just read your post.