Is Cue Card too big at 14 to 1 to start favourite for the Gold Cup ?

Looked at this a few days ago myself and thought the exact same thing. Do I think he'll go off favourite, no I don't but 14/1 is too big. Can see him shortening as he is the only viable English winner and he goes for a million pounds bonus.

i can see there being huge media attention nearer the time and the trainer has a way of being bullish that is kind of infectious - if ground conditions look like being in his favour i think there could easily be a snowball affect - we have seen before what can happen when the occasional punter gets hold of a good story - this has the potential to be the main ingredient the media uses to sell the festival to the public this year....look at ap's last national - i dont think he will start favourite but i think the chance is less than 14-1

What holds his price up is the fact that most of the racing world already imprinted in their heads that he won't stay and that is hard to shift, if he was in his second season chasing with what he's done this season he'd probably be 2/1.

Can't see that myself, I expect the first mention of the GC to be the night of the race after it's been run, my memory is probably playing tricks on me but I don't recall there was a massive media push toward coneygree last year when we really had the David and Goliath story in the making and if they couldn't latch on to that one I don't see how CC rates any better.

Rightly or wrongly, if Vautour is declared for the race, I think there'll be a massive plunge on him.  Especially if the word "good" is in the going, and "R Walsh" is next to his name.

If Vautour doesn't line up, I suspect Don Cossack will be the favourite.

In fact, I'd say it's a lot more likely that Cue Card wins the Gold Cup at 7/1 than he is likely to go off fav at 14/1.

Unless our next forum charge is on Cue Card in the Gold Cup but we all take the 14's for him to be fav before we attack

because of the million pound bonus - a little (and mean little) like how NON racing fans in america latch on to a horse that gets the first two legs of a triple crown up - such horses are always masssively over bet because the general public get involved - i can see the media seeing this as an opportunity to turn this into our equivalent and racing take this as an opportunity to try and get this kind of hysteria - or put it another way if I was a decision maker in racing i would see this as a golden opportunity to get broadscale publicity. i know the same can happen on the flat (re trip crown) in the uk but have never thought the public has ever warmed to the flat like it has the jumps so think the opportunity is much bigger.

I guess for me its less about the 14-1 bet and more about how i hope racing recognises the potential and unique opportunity it has been presented with and gets their act together to maximise the potential.

I think 14/1 is about right. I think a few factors would need to come together to create the scenario. I see all the 7/1 has dried up, perhaps us Brits can get behind one of our own for a change!

I don't think he should be far away from fav, but it will most likely be Vautour.

...although Mullins has taken a bit of a beating in the last week or so.

Djakadam, Shaneshill, Up for Review, Bellshill, Killultagh Vic all fell, dissapointing or out.  Still has the monopoly obviously, but not quite as invincible as he was a couple of weeks ago.

He won some big races with second strings, but he would have been disappointed with the 5 above.

The only thing in his favour is that the Irish money will be split.

However, cannot see how he usurps the 3 leading Irish players in the market. He is not a household name like Dessie or Kauto Star and this isn't the Grand National with a fairytale story behind it.

Not a bet for me as a previous poster above has said Vatour will be fav if he runs. If not can see DC being the plunge horse.

The cue card story has substance. He has better course form than anything in the race, and is in very good form. Yes folk will look at the irish runners with their AP vouchers, but English based horses have won 8 of the last 9 gold cups.Don't overlook him because of the bonus headlines and all that bookies PR guff. His form speks for itself, and if the ground is decent he has a right good chance.

Don't see how his chances are overstated there......it's all true.

Don't think he can reach being fav,but imo he should be.

Charwell,
I think that the horse's chance of winning, and the chance of it being favourite, are well and truly connected. That seems to be the case in every race ever run.

Well if that's true what Paddy Brennan said,then little point in him turning up!!

His trainer says hes a proper stayer these days, I prefer that,and what my eyes told me at Kempton I prefer as well, finishing really strongly.....something the current fav did not.

Yeh,to be honest ive never worried about age and im no stat man anyway.
Hes the best form this season,and to be honest looks better than ive ever seen him,although there have been times in his career he has been very impressive of course.
The staying bit has to be a slight concern but that's the same for all of them aside Djakadam and RTR, who have been there and for me proved they can handle the extra distance.
That concern for me is countered by what I saw at Kempton and the trainers confidence.
Im not saying he will definitely stay, but I think he will.

My interpretation of the King George was that both Cue Card and Vautour were stopping in front with Cue Card stopping more slowly than Vautour. Despite that I'd personally give Vautour more chance at Cheltenham because there were potentially factors in that race which stand out for him over Cue Card regarding a Gold Cup.

I can't remember the thread but I posted up a comparison with the Novice. They went a fair bit quicker in the King George as you'd expect but came home quite  bit slower. In relation to who is the more likely stayer I'd argue we are looking at an incomplete picture. My view is that Cue Card was tuned to the minute for that race and that Vautour will be tuned to the minute for the Gold Cup. I also feel racing right handed and slightly jumping out to his right impacted on Vautour's effectiveness.

My personal view is that it is unlikely that Cue Card will stay well enough to win. I'm not sure that Vautour will either but the picture in my mind isn't as complete with him and I do feel that he will prove to be the better horse.

Agreed, and like said earlier if they want to find out about stamina they would want him properly fit so they could then make an accurate assessment of whether or not he would stay, they wouldn't want any weakening caused through lack of fitness as you then wouldn't know if the stamina was there anyhow!

I don't buy the fitness angle but I do buy the opinion that Vautour is likely to be a better horse in March as he has been for two years in a row.

It's been done to death of course bit because it's such a fascinating issue we keep debating it, I don't see too much wrong with it tbh, anyway to counter slightly the "how much better he'll be at Cheltenham" argument, I'd say that through the race and turning in he was travelling equally as powerful as he did at the festival last year.

We've seen his performances in the last 2 years at the festival and quite understandably assume that at any other point in the year we're not going to see the like, but this was the KG and I think he was fit and if the race was stopped with two to go I don't think anyone would argue he hadn't put in as good a performance as he has ever done.

Being happy with his fitness and his well being evidenced by the power with which he travelled I am happy to put the late falter down to stamina limitation, of course it may be all wrong but it must be an understandable argument at least.