Cheltenham Festival
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prince of scars (flemensfirth )-spirit leader supreme leader 6 yo bay gelding ...I may not be up to date on running plans for this fella but to me he must run in the world hurdle Shirley ! he can be backed at 20s in the shops and a much bigger price on here suggesting that he may run in another race or he may be saved for Aintree or who knows where , the point is the horse he cosily beat last time also owned by gigginstown by a snug 4 lengths alpha des obeaux has franked the form and is 7/1 3rd fav for the stayers and this fella who is progressing well is 20/1 for the same race .
prince of scars has improvement has coincided with the step to distances in excess of 2.4 miles and has won his last 3 races all at races 3 miles and continued his upward curve at leopardstown over Christmas with a nice turn of foot to put the race to bed officially rated 155 he has the scope to rate a fair bit higher and to me looks way too big at 20s in the shops with the insurance of non runner no bet .
his wins were on soft to heavy but whos to say good/soft wont suit at the festival at 20s nrnb I will pay to find out , yeah I know thistlecrack looks good but he is around 7/4 and he might just be meeting his match with this improver .......................... selection .world hurdle ...prince of scars 1 point each way 20s nrnb ............keep the change ya filty animals !
prince of scars has improvement has coincided with the step to distances in excess of 2.4 miles and has won his last 3 races all at races 3 miles and continued his upward curve at leopardstown over Christmas with a nice turn of foot to put the race to bed officially rated 155 he has the scope to rate a fair bit higher and to me looks way too big at 20s in the shops with the insurance of non runner no bet .
his wins were on soft to heavy but whos to say good/soft wont suit at the festival at 20s nrnb I will pay to find out , yeah I know thistlecrack looks good but he is around 7/4 and he might just be meeting his match with this improver .......................... selection .world hurdle ...prince of scars 1 point each way 20s nrnb ............keep the change ya filty animals !
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Even though the horse is trading at 50/1 on the machine at the moment?
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Obviously no security of NRNB on the machine but I know what price I would rather throw my speculative few quid at!
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already had some for shrapnel Paterson ! and the nrnb .../.....just think if they do aim him at the world hurdle if he goes in the ground (no evidence to say he will or wont )he was tanking along at leopardstown and had more in hand than the 4 lengths he looks a contender and should be much more to come !
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I was considering him the other day, but I concluded that the difference in price between the books and on here suggests he isn't being aimed at the race. I'll wait until I hear something otherwise before I tie up any cash on him.
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it looks that way by the betting on here but after the way he trounced alpha and given that he is progressing fast connections may think again and have a few in the race !
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Yes, I think he's definitely worth taking his chance. He has a progressive looking profile to me, though admittedly a lot to find with the likes of Thistlecrack. I can only assume that Elliott doesn't particularly rate him and was surprised he won at Christmas.
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rated the same as alpha des obeux, both open to improvement ! gigginstown don't shy away from racing against their own so gives hope they may aim him at world hurdle !
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To go from a handicap to a Grade 1 shows some rate of improvement. I have my doubts as to whether he replicate it though, and I'd want to see him back that up with another good performance before I'd go in for a World Hurdle.
Owners have Lieutenant Colonel entered in this too. Quite surprised because not seen since April, so assumed he was ofts. He wouldn't be good enough anyway based on last years run. |
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From listening to what Gordon Elliot said after his last win, he considers him a top chasing prospect who he's been told to mind and thinks he's a better horse on soft ground. A top class prospect for the future but if the ground hasn't plenty of dig can see him missing this.
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yeah slowertj he probably will miss the world hurdle going by the betting ,but plans can change and with the nrnb wont harm the bank ,regarding the improvement from handicaps to grade 1 winner, I would have thought strike while the iron is hot he can still go chasing next year all being well ,it didn't look like a fluke o.k arctic fire didn't get the trip but he had a usefull stayer behind in Martello tower and russel was looking around for dangers well before the last . he could find another 7-12 lb of improvement and that would put him bang in the mix , thistlecrack don't look invincible to me although is a worthy fav . have to see what transpires !
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i think thistlecrack s the bet of the festival even at the price he currently is. However i cant argue with your reasoning at all and 50s seems insane on his beating of ADO, there was no fluke about it and he is so lightly raced he must have improvement in him. The world hurdle absolutely should be the target and should he turn up arguably he should be second favourite so 50s is baffling as he could not be bigger than 10-1 on the day. The trainer may have doubts regarding the ground but i can't see that as a reason not to run, the world hurdle isn't a race known for taking it out of horses for the future and the jockey would surely just be told to keep that in mind and look after him. As you mention though the price seems to good to be true so it probably is and i doubt we'll see him turn up which would be a shame as imo he is clearly the horse other than thistlecrack that could be anything, the others have all had there limitations shown one way or another IMO.
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the jockey said he would be interesting for the wh if the ground came up soft - i think nrnb is a no brainer as it seems as though he wot run on anything quicker than soft - there again we had a similar thing with bog warrior who imo would have sluiced up if he hadnt gone wrong - though with bw the jockey repeatedly said that he thought he might go on g-s once
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this horse since moving up in trip 3 runs ago has improved from a rating of 130 to 155 in 3 staying hurdles an improvement of 25 lb which is impressive and and he hacked up last time ! in my mind if he lines up he should be 2nd fav .
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prince of scars has won a 2 mile hurdle on ground described as yielding !
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Navan, Sunday, 2:30
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Glad that he might run again before the Festival. As I said above, he has definitely improved, but we see so many times (especially in Ireland) they'll win a Grade 1 and then they never do anything of note again. McKinley is one that springs to mind last year, and I remember backing Aitmatov years ago after he won the Hatton's Grace, and he did nothing after that.
I have a feeling Bleu et Rouge might be similar from the Deloitte the other day but only time will tell. I think it's dangerous backing one after one result that seemed too good to be true, without seeing him back it up. Camping Ground springs to mind. Looks a pretty weak G2 he's been entered in, but Dedigout is useful in the mud, and Lieutenant Colonel runs well in Ireland, but PoS needs to be winning this ih he has WH claims. |
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agree with the above wellc, will see what happens sunday .
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although if he were to pish up on sunday he will be trading at much lower odds ,and if he gets turned over doubt he will run and nrnb comes into play ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
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biggest concern Foyles imo is connections deciding they will chance him on goodish ground - at that point personally i would prefer my money back.
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Yeah Foyles, I completely agree re his price will fall or non runner.
Just with the standard of opposition he's likely to face (two main rivals off the track for 300+ days), I don't think he'll shorten massively if he wins (a couple of points probably). Also, I can't remember the hundreds of times I've got to the day of the race at Cheltenham where I'm sitting on a lovely 20/1 AP voucher for something running in single figures, but they still lose. You could be getting a much better price now than the SP, but whatever price he goes off at, I doubt he'll be good enough to beat Thistlecrack. |