Cheltenham Festival
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08 Feb 16
13:16
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31 Jul 03
opta (and others presumably) are starting to provide science to a footballers performance that adds a little objectivity to what has always been a largely subjective assessment. I would like to see the same science added to jockeys. Of course there will always be (and should be) a big place for subjectivity when assessing how effective a jockey is but more objectivity would be a welcome addition imo. We keep hearing pundits and experts talk about jockeys they feel never got the chance their talent merited, maybe if there were a little more science then we would have a better idea if that was an accurate statement or not - and if so perhaps some jockeys would be looked upon more favorably by the racing world and some less so.
Lets say RJ ad AP swapped rides for the previous 20 seasons, we all have an opinion as to whether RJ would have ridden as many winners as AP (and vice versa) but it would be fascinating to have data to point to as well as subjectivity. Imagine if we had data like % times a jockey won/got beat when leading at the last, % fall/ride, % won by head or less compared to % lost by head or less - e.t.c. e.t.c. I know some are gut feel punters, some data driven some a mix of both - but perhaps having some sort of jockey index with detail behind for those that want it????
Tell me am i talking c**p or would others be interested?
Lets say RJ ad AP swapped rides for the previous 20 seasons, we all have an opinion as to whether RJ would have ridden as many winners as AP (and vice versa) but it would be fascinating to have data to point to as well as subjectivity. Imagine if we had data like % times a jockey won/got beat when leading at the last, % fall/ride, % won by head or less compared to % lost by head or less - e.t.c. e.t.c. I know some are gut feel punters, some data driven some a mix of both - but perhaps having some sort of jockey index with detail behind for those that want it????
Tell me am i talking c**p or would others be interested?
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I think the level stakes return at SP is about the best guide - although of course the market prices in 'expectation' from bigger name jockeys and, more particularly, stables - so it's far from fool-proof.
the problem with rides/fall, is that some barns just school them better, it has less to do with the raceday jock than who is up day-in-day-out at home.
I think having a metric to assess how good a judge of 1) pace in the race and 2) how much fuel is left in the tank would be a great idea. Cauthen is rightly regarded as an all-time great, principally because he got this right far more often than not.
the problem with rides/fall, is that some barns just school them better, it has less to do with the raceday jock than who is up day-in-day-out at home.
I think having a metric to assess how good a judge of 1) pace in the race and 2) how much fuel is left in the tank would be a great idea. Cauthen is rightly regarded as an all-time great, principally because he got this right far more often than not.
if you have the data people can pick and chose what they use and what they discard - also fall/ride could be second sorted by trainer which would take the trainer factor away to some extent - there is so much that could be done with the right level of thinking imo
I am certain data on fall/ride ratio does exist, thought it forms only for that particular jockey himself. I have no idea where to look for this data though i am sure it might be somewhere on the jockey clubs website or BHA e.g
fall/ride ratio wouldn't tell the whole story though, how could you find data on how jockeys behave when coming to the last couple of fences, asking horses up or sitting still, whether a horse falls or not, a race can be given away simply by a less than positive commitment from the jockey at a final fence without necessarily falling.
^^^true^^^ given why the hunch factor has weight. Lol. Game of opinions.
Put RW on Don Cossack (DC), and DC will be a short price 'fav'!
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