albert bartlett novices hurdle

On Shantou any race at 10s/8s, and UFR @ 8s, too.

Think we're bokking each other, Scooby

Good luck timmy.
I fancy 00seven strongly and I expect him to beat the gordon elliott horse fagan easily and shorten up massively for the bartlett. My guess would be 12/1 max by Sunday evening.

Have a saver on the Neptune as well, if it came up soft I would worry about it seeing out 3 miles round prestbury

I don't fancy him in the neptune for win purposes. But I agree with what your saying.

If they step Long Dog up in trip, he'd have a huge chance in this.

Had the speed to beat Tombstone over 2m, but looks like he'll stay all day.  I suspect he's down the Mullins novice hurdle pecking order, but he has rock solid form already.  I think they hold on to him, he'll have too much speed up the hill at the end (especially if it's good).

I'll be backing him as soon as NRNB comes out.

Agreed chief but It's on the shade unlikely side, I'v been on long dog any race at 12s for months and I'm still suprised at the price he is for both any race and neptune,  certainly don't mind him going for either race. And looks a banker to be placed in either imo.

Have already backed SV but also considering A Toi Phil, be ideal race for him if going to Cheltenham

Does anyone have any news on Gangster, who looked a worldbeater in his runs before Christmas, since when, FA.

Wellbeing? Target? Pecking order at Mullins? Prep race?

Gangster goes bartlett according to willie and Bryan cooper looks to be the leading giggi contender and being trimmed lately.

Pretty happy with oo seven there beat 2 fair horses in a good battle and says all day long, he will be in with a shout as nothings going to win the bartlett on the bridle

agree thought he toughed it out pretty well there - was tough against yorkhill too - main ingredient for AB imo - also versatile re ground - interesting runner good shout and gl

Henderson to target Neptune with O O Seven according to RP news feed.

Sc1833 nag just a couple of quid on for neptune at 440.0 and a sum you backed the same, I wouldn't have done if you diddnt post so thanks.
In regards to targets I still stand by he could win a bartlett but not a neptune.
Depends what connections think I suppose, henderson known to shift a few about like vyta du roc last year

"All being well he'll definitely be running at Cheltenham and the Neptune is more likely as I am not sure he is going to see out a stiff three miles. Andrew [Tinkler - jockey] said he was idling a bit today."

I already seen that after the race, my feelings still the same.

Be interested to know how many runners Hendo has had in the AB,hes well known for being fairly kind with his novice hurdlers.

no probs Scooby, hopefully gives you a good trade closer the time now. Just feel a 3 mile slog might round an undulating track like Cheltenham is just what the horse doesn't need as he's plenty of gears but just lacks the speed needed for a supreme compared to the likes of altior. Next year will be an half decent chaser imo so will be looked after

Scooby91 - So your view that O O Seven stays all day long is more accurate than his trainers? I do love it when the pocket does the thinking :-)

Jackie I don't really care tbh everyone has an opinion and that's mine, he outstayed fagan who is a decent stayer over 3 miles and battled on well. I have him at 440.0 for the neptune and only 42.0 for the bartlett so it's nothing to do with money. I don't think he will win the neptune. But never mind. I have yanworth at 25/1 a toi phil over 300.0, long dog 12s any race. Bellshill 14s and others at big prices and diddnt particularly want another neptune runner, especial one I think would have a fair shout in the bartlett which is where I think he should go.

You don't need to justify by telling us your bets.
Not sure why you do anyway, I doubt anyones interested

Don't care if anyone's interested it just justifies that I'm not pocket talking when I'd get 4 x as much if he won the neptune

okey doke

Scooby91 - All your posts are merely a boast about how you have 'this horse' at 'this price'. If you go through your history you'll find very little genuine racing discussion in your posts or any real acknowledgment for horses not in your book. I thought this was a forum for discussion but actually it's a platform for personal ego massaging.

You have some nice prices on some nice horses. Well done. Let's see if you can contribute a bit more and not turn every post into a boast.

The fact is Jackie,  each horse iv "boasted" about I have put up my reason for backing on here previously on either the thread for posting your bets or the thread for each race. The vast majority of horses I backed very early so if you look back through the threads I'm sure you'll see this, if I just suddenly came up with a horse I'd done at a huge price without mentioning it before I would agree with you.
Also if you followed the horses iv put up, I think You'd have a pretty nice book.

Another nice boast in the last line of your last comment :-)

There are more important things in life than tying up money in ante post bets. Your scatter gun approach may work for you but I don't have the time or finances to do so.

But well done to you.

to be fair the trainer said he wasnt sure about a stiff 3 mile - that is not an emphatic statement sure = 100% or pretty close - so he is saying he is not 100% - scooby thinks it will the trainer is not sure which by definition means he thinks its possible but less likely than scooby - hardly a case to get on his back imo - fwiw when i was watching i thought it was a battling effort not an effort evidencing gears - whether that means he would stay the AB trip is another matter but recognising the likely opposition in both races i think it at least as likely he would stay the AB trip (which would then put him in with every chance) as have enough gears to win the Neptune. I think Budd has it spot on - he is kind/soft/easy (whatever) on his novices and doesnt want to take the risk.

oops things have moved on - scrap my last post - wish i had stayed out of this one

Have a look at the thread for 2016 antepost bets I just put up to the top. Admittedly I have some losers up there. But I'm sure you'll find some pretty sound reasoning for others like min, yanworth,.....

Chill out scoob. You're just giving Jackie more ammo. You carry on doing what you do and don't worry about it, but remember some like to keep their bets private and don't get your enthusiasm for publishing yours.

I know just don't like when someone asumes what my apraoch is. If anyone looks through the 2016 antepost bets thread I tipped up the 4 favs for the novices min yanworth limini and barters hill all at almost there biggest prices. BH 4 miler. Douvan arkle. Djakadam GC most before october Plus some other nice horses and some losers. And gave my reasoning for all. Anyway I will no longer post my selections,  just will use the forum for information purposes

i like his transparency - i dont think of it as boasting just excitement and enthusiasm - recognising every time he does it he opens himself up for people to say what the f*** have you backed that for, many of his posts have been after a horse is entered but before it has run and if we are honest he has not hoovered up all the prices for the horses he has given a shout to so no doubt there are a few on here that have followed him in and are grateful for it.

Keep posting scooby at least you put them up before they have run,unlike some.

Yeah, good luck to you Scooby.

You've obviously put a lot of work in, as you've been backing them since the summer.

I get so caught up between work/slots, I don't have time to study the newspaper, nevermind in the detail you obviously do.

No need to stop posting scooby. I don't take it as boasting either.

The whole thrill of antepost punting is getting fancy prices on horses that shorten. If you can't enjoy that you should pack up imo.

agree, not an issue, I enjoy reading scooby and many others on here because they share information I might not be aware of or come up with an angle that I have n't considered.I try to contribute in the same spirit. I don't post my bets - I don't really bet antepost anyway - but nor would I come on afterwards and congratulate myself for backing a winner that I have n't posted on here.Both approaches are fine as far as I'm concerned.

With regard to O O Seven he's by Flemensfirth whose strike rate at 24f + suggests the Albert Bartlett trip should n't be an issue although the dam's side is a bit less encouraging.

your probs the reason I joined Scooby! don't leave the day I join!

some great insight reading through your posts and some handy ante post vouchers!

keep it up!

Gangster is a really interesting horse. Half brother to Rite of Passage. Suspect if he does run on the day he will be very short. Can just see all those references to ROP and the fact he is unbeaten and WM horse...

Only reading this thread now but agree Scooby you just keep doing what you were doing. You were backing up your bets with your logic and thats perfectly logical to me.

On Sunday,Fagan looked just the sort of horse who could go well at a very nice price. The ground probably went against him, but could well be in his favour at Cheltenham. Travelled and jumped beautifully, came to win and didn't quite make it.
But it was his first run for a while and it looked a good race to me.
Owned by the sponsor, he's likely to run in the Bartlett and I'm certainly one who believes Barters Hill is very beatable.

Bellshill cut for the bartlett from 25/1 to 14s, pretty happy about that myself as i was getting worried there was an injury. He's been Pushed out for neptune to 16s
Yorkhill pushed right out for supreme and looks Iminent for the neptune.

Also thanks for the comments above.

Still 25s available on the book and 27.0 on the exchanges for the bartlett, even if he dosent go there which it looks atm like he will, as soon as people realise it will be cut across the board and a nice trade out.

come on @cyclops, very beatable? very? He had a hard race lto because UFR took him on so early. He could suffer a blow in March but I wouldn't say he's `very` beatable about an unbeaten horse based on a single performance. I'd rather see him in the Neptune as he has a strong pace and only his class will get him through 3 miles as stamina might not be his forte but he's still unbeaten and is not that short in the market to find excuses to lay him. I'd rather be on his side whichever race he goes for.

Like Gangster a lot. Similar route to Martello Tower which won a great Albert Bartlett last year at 14s. Won its Grade 3 like Gangster has done and ready to lower Barters Hill's colours.

All the rage last year was for Black Hercules just like Barter's Hill. So if your superstitious both favourites started with the letters B and H and will both have their colours lowered by a 14/1 shot? (we're not superstitious are we lads???? ).

Black Hercules 5/2 Fav beaten by Martello Tower 14/1

Barters Hill 5/2 Fav beaten by Gangster 14/1 ???? surely... not... surely...yes

Barters will drift on the day to around 7/2, I'll wait those prices for the AB. If ground comes soft he'll steam for the Neptune as the trainer is keen to go there if the ground won't have good in description.

jokersjow the stats lot will love the BH stat

Timtin. I will be very surprised if they fancy taking Yanworth on, whatever the going is. BH will go for the AB imo.

slowerthanjohn   "jokersjow the stats lot will love the BH stat"



They do come up with some proper **** don't they?!!!

Just trying to help 

perhaps @CCM but trainer said they won't go AB if going is soft. Also I don't think its wise to run away from one horse.

Depends on what horse it is timtin. Ben Pauling is a very shrewd and imo underrated trainer he didn't sound overly keen on taking on Yanworth and I think only very soft will make him do so. As for Barters Hill he's not very impressive visually but till he gets beaten there is no knowing how good he could be. Personally think his jumping would be more suited to the AB but what ever race he takes part in he's a formidable foe.

BH is the stable flagship horse - personally cannot see him going AB on testing ground even if that would be a softer option (in terms of winning a race) as i doubt they would risk running the guts out of the horse -  i know its a festival race but its the AB - why take the risk when they might not get another like him for years.

I've not looked at the race properly yet but I always think it's not straightforward because they're novices either going faster than they've ever been before over an extended trip on ground faster than they've encountered previously or it becomes an absolute attritional slog if the ground is on the soft side.

Looking at the last couple of renewals, 2014 was a real placepot buster and 2015 was n't far behind it - plenty of good horses with F or P next to their names or beaten ludicrously far in each of the last two renewals (particularly last year).

On the face of it, the nature of the race should really suit Barter's Hill but even he will have to grind like he has never done before.

Good luck Scooby hope all them win except Djak but yil be happy enough if Vatour does the biz[:excited:

Plenty of blue on oddschecker for Shantou Village in this now... as low as 6/1

"I wouldn't say he's `very` beatable about an unbeaten horse based on a single performance".

Well, timtin, he's only had three so you have to base your thoughts on something!

Just didn't look a Cheltenham winner in waiting to me as he struggled to put away two horses who don't look like Cheltenham material, let alone winners. Yes, the pace probably made it harder for him, but his jumping looked awkward and I wouldn't have been happy if I'd supported him for the Festival.

So,anyway, big shout to @cyclops for his call on Fagan who went very close and to @buddeliea for his observations on Henderson's attitude to the race.

As per usual, plenty of decent animals with F,P and U after their names  post race.

Not an after-time as I backed Shantou Village but I was quite shocked when I looked at the profile of the 7 Mullins contenders versus the profile,stats and trends regarding previous winners of the race - I'm not a slave to stats by any means but it's pretty obvious when you look at the history of this race that it's a big ask to win it with a horse off the flat or a horse stepping up in trip for the first time who has not at least run over 3 miles in a PTP.

The approach appeared to be to throw as many darts at the race as possible in the hope that one would come off rather than selecting the right horses based on profile and the requirements of the race. Aside from Long Dog (RIP), Balko Des Flos, Gangster and Open Eagle all had hard races in completing and Bleu Et Rouge, Bachasson and Up For Review failed to finish - I would n't be in a hurry to back any of those if they turn up at Aintree and/or Punchestown. 

I think it's also pretty clear that Up For Review - who actually did have the right type of profile for the Albert Bartlett - is a horse who does not travel well to the UK - all his performances here have been poor.

Shantou Flyer was going well 6f out but was back pedalling 3f out - I think he didn't stay the AB trip.

Thanks, Reaseheath.
Fagan travelled supremely throughout the race, jumped brilliantly and came with a wet sail from way back to almost snatch it.
Someone with less financial interest than me would probably be in abetter position to judge if it was a superb Davy Russell ride or whether he left it too late.
I don't back many 90/1 winners but for a moment thought he was the one.
Certainly a really fine prospect on good ground, whether it be staying hurdles or novice chases; look at the way he travels throughout and then stays on and I think anyone would agree.

yes, I'll be keeping a close eye on Fagan in future.

Apparently Shantou Village was struck into according to the vet's report so I would n't write him off as a non stayer just yet.

Also a nice story on Racing UK this morning about Harry Fry calling the handicapper to complain about the mark allotted to Unowhatimeanharry and saying: 'that means I'll have to take on Barters Hill' to which the handicapper replied: 'yes, and I prefer yours!'

Re: Shantou Village

That explained why (?), from making steady headway to back pedalling in just a few strides!