Cheltenham Festival
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seems to be a bit quiet ! maybe people think its cut and dried , the fav jumps round he wins ? possibly yes but at around 4/5 he looks well worth taking on as he hasn't looked quite as invincible this season and he should have special tiara for company up front and probably wont have it all his own way ,he may still be good enough but in a championship race at the festival he is too short for me .
sprinter sacre has looked a different horse from last season but has still a way to go to match his best and he is priced about right ,reining champ dodging bullets is a decent price and improved all last season and at a double figga price non runner no bet looks value to me ,paul nicholls has said he will aim him at the game spirit then the champion and is a player if running .
one that has impressed me is gary moores traffic fluide who is progressive and put in a cracking run behind the fav last time he has not got a great deal to find and again at around 14s nrnb he has a decent chance of making up the ground on un de scaux ............................take the fav on 2 handed ...selections champion chase .......DODGING BULLETS 10S NRNB ......................TRAFFIC FLUIDE 14S NRNB .baldys
sprinter sacre has looked a different horse from last season but has still a way to go to match his best and he is priced about right ,reining champ dodging bullets is a decent price and improved all last season and at a double figga price non runner no bet looks value to me ,paul nicholls has said he will aim him at the game spirit then the champion and is a player if running .
one that has impressed me is gary moores traffic fluide who is progressive and put in a cracking run behind the fav last time he has not got a great deal to find and again at around 14s nrnb he has a decent chance of making up the ground on un de scaux ............................take the fav on 2 handed ...selections champion chase .......DODGING BULLETS 10S NRNB ......................TRAFFIC FLUIDE 14S NRNB .baldys
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I've backed Traffic Fluide NRNB for the Ryanair at 14's, just in case the Moores decide to split them, but fully expect them to send him here.
Unoriginal, but I can't see past the fav, but Cheltenham does usually bring out the best in Sprinter. Last year's race would worry me for Dodging Bullets and Special Tiara. Special Tiara was 8 then, and couldn't beat an 11 year old Somersby, and Dodging Bullets only just held on from him too, and he had a perfect prep last year. Already backed UDS a while ago, but I too think Traffic Fluide at the prices is the one to go for, although I'd be waiting for the place market nearer the time, or take the 7's on Traffic Fluide in the w/o markets. |
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the form of last years champion does look" ordinary" with somesby so close but the fav didn't beat a bunch of world beaters in the arkle and I think he is vulnerable and will be laying him around evs or shorter ,wont break the bank if he wins at those prices
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I can't really see the fav getting beat in this! The last time ruby managed to keep aamuch tighter hold on him and he put the race to bed pretty easily! Sprinter looks to be on a level with sire de grugy this year and that doesn't give him much chance but you never know! Last year's winner looks to have it all to do with missing so much of the season and last year's race looking average at best. Everything is in uds favour! Stranger things have happened and he could clout a fence and wipe himself out but his jumping last time looked sound and I can't find any reason to go against him right now.
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I'm not sure SDG was at his best when beat by UDS given Traffic Fluide proximity. I view it as a open race and DB @ 10/1 e/w looks value for a reigning champion and in his Clarence House last year he ran to a similar, if not better level than UDS this year. I'm not so stuck with last CC bare form and even if I look at that Somersby is no mug and was in good shape last season, Special Tiara was further 2 lengths behind and Simply Ned 15+.
DB usually tracks the pace and given ST and UDS going out in front at a good gallop I can see him getting pass those 2 easily in the straight, if UDS fights back I don't know but even if DB gets placed it'll return more at the prices than UDS winning. Of course the worries with him is the lack of racing and coming back to last saeson form, we won't know until his next Newbury outing but reports have been good so far and Nicholls is dying to have a championship horse so he'll do his best to get his only one back on track for March. |
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I'm with Foyles, if UDS is odds on I'll have the field running for me. His completion rate isn't perfect and I'm not sure his form amounts to very much either.
Last years QMCC was a poor one and so he may just be better than the rest, but driven out to beat Gods Own in the Arkle and a win over SDG (no longer a model of consistency)? It doesn't smack of superstar to me - but then he mightn't have to be. The NRNB Traffic Fluid ew with a win and place lay of the fav is the way to go, imo. |
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dodging bullets has not got the credit he deserves for his champion chase win and with the setback and form of the nicholls stable looks a value call ,he improved no end last season and if over the setback whos to say he wont resume his progress ,he may not hve looked to have beaten much but there were 3 previous champion chase winners behind and you can only beat whats in front of you ,db is a horse that is never going to win 20 lengths on the bridle and he had been in front a long time in the champion and is twice the price of sprinter sacre a horse who he hammered a few times last season he is also with a master trainer .
special tiara could well hassle un de scaux for the lead and a bit of an upset could be on the cards . traffic fluide is a young improving horse who had chasing experience as a 4yo in france is a decent each way price and is one who could find 7-10 lb and that would put him right in the mix . good luck |
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I just cant find a thing to take UDS on with myself. Any fears I had were well and truly put to bed last time.
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its all a question of value to me ,uds is obviously going to be popular with those "sexy" form figures all those 1s with a few fs in amongst them he has been incredibly well placed by his trainer and he could be even better than he has shown but at 4/6 with some firms in a championship race that all of them will be peaked for he is the sort of horse that I love taking on.
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Value being the only question will depend on WPM first day runners. If they all go in he's a 1/3 chance on the day I would think with all the acca's running on. But if the unlikely happens and a couple get beat those lovely bookies will be trying to get even more of our cash and you could see maybe 7/4. At that point I would say a unbeaten horse (when getting round) is outstanding value. After all you dont have to play yet.....
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Yip agree that how mullins gets on in the 1st day could play a big part in his on the day price! I most likely won't back him myself at odds on but do have him as part of an antepost treble with Annie Power and faugheen all at odds against not for alot right enough lol and I must disagree with whoever said sire de grugy form has been inconsistent his 1st run was bad at Exeter but his last 2 have been on the money hence why I can't see him or sprinter beating him!
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dodging bullets officialy rated 171 but on looking back at his last 3 runs that don't tell the full story imo ,in the Clarence house sprinter sacre breezed past him on the turn in and geraghty must have been surprised to not only see dodging bullets draw level but run on past him and put the race to bed ,he also displayed similar battling qualitys in the champ chase and he looks as though he does enough to get the job done no thrills just a horse who will dig deep he could be a few pounds better than his rating when push comes to shove and I think he may be underated ,of cours the fav may be in a different league but this one will battle and its a decent trait ,looking back as to his improvement last season his workrider said the fitting of a tounge tie has helped relax him as he used to get buzzed up and sweating before races and is now much more relaxed.
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I have to say Foyles, I'm not really a fan of DB. I was really surprised to see him win last year after being beaten in that messy old Arkle the year before. Obviously he had improved, but my suspicion is that last years race was a weak one and also think that had Champagne Fever pitched up, he would've won. Nonetheless, he's the champ and has to be respected, the race throws up multiple winners and so I wouldn't be that surprised to see him go in again in a far from vintage renewal.
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Last year's renewal was a shocker! The worst QM I can remember - look at the second! Nicholl's form also a major worry as far as Dodgy Bullets is concerned. Let's see if he runs a race in the Game Spirit first, foyles?
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FWIW I'm on Felix Yonger 33/1 EW NRNB and 14/1 EW in the w/o UDS market. Thought I was doing quite well after last Sundays win and Ruby said QMCC. Then a few minutes later W.Mullins puts me away with the Japan trip. FFS!!!!
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Just out of interest who is the last horse to win it more than once think master minded is the last I remember and even is 2nd win wasn't his best!
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I think Dodging Bullets did well to take advantage that there was a well below par Sprinter and SDG last year.
Not his fault, as you can only beat what is in front of you, but even his Tingle Creek was a dreadful renewal. Most of them in that race were mid to low 150's, whereas UDS's Clarence House this year was all low to mid 160's, and he won that pretty easily. Traffic Fluide needs to step up a lot again. He has youth and is unexposed, I thought it was a good performance last time, but I think people have got a bit carried away personally. Open to improvement, no doubt though because you don't know what's left in the tank. That's why I'd put him up as the opposition to UDS, but I fully expect UDS to confirm the placings of last time. |
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without doubt un de scaux the one to beat but its quite likely he will have special tiara going toe to toe with him for most of the way he may be good enough but at odds on I will be laying him , nice to see nicholls have a few winners today he may be turning a corner
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Think Walsh will simply press on if ST tries to go with him. Don't see it being a problem at all,as long as he don't go too quick!!
Could actually help UDS post a rating that might go someway to silencing a few critics. |
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Yeah I'm with budd here. Got a horrible feeling (I've added St and db ew) that uds will simply break special tiaras heart. Whether he goes too quick and gets caught by ss db etc up the final hill and we get a champagne fever arkle type of finish is another thing entirely
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i'm the same as you shockster! I have often wondered why Irish/British jumps horses dont go and contest international races (particularly France) given the money on offer... I was delighted to get FY at those odds and then i hear Japan!?!?!
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Mullins sent Blackstairmountain over to win a novice Chase in Japan for £450,000 after he was stuffed by Sprinter.
That's almost £200,000 more than what Synchronised won for winning that years Gold Cup! I bet ya Wylie is counting the Yen already! |
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Sadly so do I Wellchief.
Mullins has stuffed me on FY for the Arkle and now this. Destined not to be. |
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I was big on him for the Arkle too mate.
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Will probably have a sentimental e/w bet on Sprinter. Hasn't looked near his best this year but is 2/2 nonetheless, and I am at least very hopeful he can be be best of the rest, or pick up the pieces of any UDS shortcomings/mishaps.
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Blackstair won the grand jump wc
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Latest defectors
Josses Hill, Captain Conan, Simply Ned, Vibrato Valtat, Traffic Fluide, Cold March, Simonsig. |
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un de scaux out to evens on here ,bullets into 9.4
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Bullets 12/1 general with books
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I like Special Tiara @ 14/1. More to be made each way on ST than UDS @ 4/6.
Came on nicely from a disappointing run at Navan, ran very well in the Tingle Creek and would have won had it not for being blind sided by SDG. Ran well last year and if there is one hole we can pick in UDS it has to be his jumping. Special Tiara will go off at some clip, we all know that, and where UDS seems vulnerable (or perhaps better put, more likely to make a mistake) is when Ruby is forced to ask him to jump as opposed to finding his own stride. If they share the lead or better yet, ST goes off like an absolute lunatic, then I can see Special Tiara front running and making it more likely for UDS to get out of his confort zone. |
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Willie Mullins is set to let Felix Yonger take his chance alongside stablemate Un De Sceaux in the Queen Mother Champion Chase.
Ireland's champion trainer had suggested that the Graham Wylie-owned 10-year-old could go to Japan for the Nakayama Grand Jump in Tokyo, but that won't be happening this year with a run on the second day of the Cheltenham Festival now pencilled in. Un De Sceaux is odds-on across the board for the Champion Chase following an excellent win at Ascot on his latest start, but Felix Yonger looks a solid second string for the Closutton handler following two Grade Two victories on his last two starts. Mullins told At The Races: "It looks like we'll let him take his chance in the Champion Chase. Maybe he could go to Japan next year. "He's in as good a form as he's ever been and I'd be hoping he can get in the money." |
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Nice one Shock,thats great news,got big odds e/w on him.
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So have I Budd, and also 14/1 ew w/o UDS. Still think 8/1 w/o UDS is a big price, only been beat twice out of 8 runs in the last 2 seasons and they were on reappearance. I don't think he'll beat UDS and unless Sprinter is near his best then I think he's the one to chase UDS home.
Just convinced myself and having some more at 8/1. |
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Well anything can happen in these 2m chases.
Just pleased we have a runner mate. |
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may be alone here but I thought the dodging bullets run was satisfactory considering the conditions ,the pre race drift spoke volumes and being by dubawi heavy ground 1st time out after a layoff was never going to play to his strength still available at around 12s on here and with the run behind him and better ground not hard to see him improve a bundle ! can he beat the fav ?............ never be afraid of 1 horse ,looks good value each way to me !
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quite possible that special tiara will make the running and at a decent clip too ,if that's the case then un de scaux will find himself following a pace that he may not be so comfortable with, as he has been used to getting his own way in front in the majority of his races and setting his own fractions, he may well still be good enough and hack up but he may be in a scenario that may be alien to him and just might upset his rhythm , just something to ponder !
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And now Felix Yonger Ryanair. absolute set of TW**S. What a disgrace.
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Annoying for me that, because looking like RTR will not be running in the Ryanair now, and he beat Felix Yonger over the Ryanair trip by 5 lengths with his head in his chest this year....yet he's too slow for the Ryanair apparently
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It's all to do with Ruby. He has no ride in the Ryanair so Wylie rolls over and has his belly tickled.
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