Cheltenham Festival
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03 Feb 16
14:04
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Date Joined:
09 Mar 08
No debate as it's unbeatable??
What about 2nd and 3rd????
What about 2nd and 3rd????
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Replies: 36
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2nd Aristo Du Plessis
3rd War Sound There you go, you heard it here first etc etc |
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My guess is people got tired of talking about the CH as they kept getting told "Faugheen will lap him lol" or "Give up it can't beat Faugheen"
FWIW Old Guard at 33/1 in the WO market is a nice ew bet imo. |
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To be honest it's a terribly poor Champion Hurdle, hardly going to help discussion when there's so little class in it really.
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Which is why people should be looking at long un's to fill the places or back in the W/O markets, imo.
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Most definitely agree, but it's shaping be a poor racing spectacle.
I have a feeling something at a very tidy price might run into a place this year, something that could have gone almost totally unnoticed. |
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*shaping to be
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Whoever goes in to the race thinking they can beat Faugheen, they will be burned off, ruined their chance and finish down the field - it's excatly what happened to Nichols Canyon last time out, where Arctic Fire was given a much more patient ride, allowed to run his own race and finish second.
If they allow MTOY to run his own race, and forget about winning, I think he can place. Similarly, if they run Arctic Fire the same as last time, I think he'll place too. For some reason, I see Peace and Co going all out to win, and I think that'll be his downfall, and he'll finish down the field. I suspect people will know their fate after about 4 furlongs. |
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Funnily I think if they allow Faugheen a uncontested lead he'll win as easy as last year, Someone will need to go with him and apply some pressure, As for what horse or owner/trainer agree to this I don't know because as you say that horse will fall out the back of the tv screen with half a mile to run.
Think Henderson will be trying to find such a horse as if they really think P&C or MTOY can win they'll want a lightning fast end to end gallop to aid their chances. Thought Nicholls Canyon hurt itself when hitting 2 out in their last race as you'll see it changed it's legs after the hurdle and never switched back hence it barely took off at the last, Wrong lead leg you see. |
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i dont know about the horses well being - sure somebody will know - but if he's ok the horse that would interest me at big prices (as per satrus's post) (50s) ew without fav is sign of a victory -obviously needs goodish ground AND a decent pace to aim at but if he got these two conditions he could travel well off the pace and mop up a place if others try and chase it.
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@Satrus_Froot you either have a weird sense of humour or you have a crazy definition for poor racing ? Everyone will be waiting for this and its the most punted from all championships races, even the competitive GC who doesn't have a standout performer is short of matched amount vs the CH. The only reason it didn't had its own thread was because there are individual horse topics where the CH has been discussed at lengths.
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Agreed. If they let Ruby dictate like last year, then he'll win as he pleases.
The horse that does put it to him will likely get crushed, but one of the other stables using a pacemaker wouldn't be a bad idea, would JP let Hendo sacrifice Hargam for MTOY? Of course Ruby could just ignore it and ride his own race. It's hard to see the thing beaten if I'm honest, but don't want the white flag going up and everyone riding for second - which is why I hope AduP lines up, he only knows one way, blazing from the front and catch him if you can. |
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Barring something unforeseen then Faugheen home and hosed. I think Ruby is gong to ride him very aggressively and we could be in for a near 180 rated performance. Might look at the "to win by 5l or more" market.
Of the others, Arctic Fire and Identity Thief to pick up the pieces. GL |
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Still two places up for grabs and agree could be two tidy priced ones placed.
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Timtin, I wasn't talking about weight of money was I. From a racing spectacle, the Gold Cup and Champion Chase are far more interesting this year, and I'd argue the World Hurdle is too. Faugheen is clearly a great horse but I'd have it fairly low down in the list of exciting Grade 1's at the festival this year. I'm looking forward to watching Faugheen, that's about all.
From a betting perspective a big priced one may create some interest for a place but wont be worried about that until the day. |
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Agree with Desmond , Aristo Du Plessis is a great price at 100/1 NRNB with one bookmaker. War of Sound is another speculative play in the place market .....price is gone now though on that one as it was 66/1 just over a week ago.
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I've also backed Aristo Du Plessis but in the without market at 50/1. He's unexposed, but the fact that he's in a frontrunner is worrying for his chances of placing. Maybe he will be ridden with more restraint than usual.
In terms of a pacemaker to attempt to unsettle Faugheen, I'd agree that Henderson has the most to gain from that, so how about Top Notch? Peace & Co is the same ownership and would benefit from it, and Top Notch is also good enough that he couldn't be ignored. Faugheen is most likely too good anyway, but, if there's anyway for him to be beaten, it's to stop him controlling the race imo. |
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In the other forum over a year ago..
Pleasegivemeanailedontip AOB plinth Not really tipping this up but what is aobs game with national hunt these days? He cant seriously be training 150/1 shot pacemakers for mcmanus other trainers and youve got to think that if he was taking it serious then at some point he WILL start firing winners in. Wont happen tomorrow but cant help but think one day hes gonna get one under the radar at a huge price Is this 'beast' entered again this year? |
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ACS Faugheen doesnt have to make all and didnt in most of his earlier races. In fact a pacemaker would only help him.
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I'm not saying he needs to lead and he will probably win whatever happens; I just think badgering him up front is the best chance anyone has of getting him beat. It also gives Henderson's two better horses more chance of running to their potential too.
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How much would they have to pay to supplement Top Not(ch)? That would be a massive waste of money by any standards.
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Well if it enables PAC to have a better chance of settling and therefore running a big race,his owner may think it money well spent.
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Faugheen will give P&Co plenty of pace to run at if he's good enough. I reckon they'll save their cash and hope for the best. Let's see how P&Co runs on Saturday first.
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delsie, TN is already entered as far as i know, he only has to show up and for Hendo to put the plan in action.
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nc and it also like to be handy - cant see it being a slow run race - so if pac cant settle in this race not sure theres much hope - cant see tn runniing being the magical ingredient
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Camping Ground is a also potential frontrunner.
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Can only see Artic Fire coming second the tactics of this race will be like shelling peas for Mullins jockeys.Madness for any horse to try and go with Faugheen.
Hope P&Co can run well and place. |
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Top Notch is already entered Delsie. As for Faugheen setting a good enough pace by himself, I don't agree with that, given the farcical gallop (for a Champion Hurdle) Ruby set on him last year. Sure, Nichols Canyon will be up with him, but they're hardly going to cut each others throats.
The quicker they go the better for Peace and Co and (even more so) for MTOY if he retains his old ability, so it's a no brainer imo to have someone try to make it. I'd even suggest that it might be the best way to ride Top Notch anyway. |
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You're right AC, he is entered. Just presumed that they wouldn't bother. I think the way Nichols Canyon capitulated at Leopardstown demonstrated what happens when you try to put it up to Faugheen. But anyway good luck with the Henderson horses.
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the thing is AC if TN went off too quick they will just ignore him anyway - its the pace the main field goes that will dictate how p a c travels (unless they can fix problem at home - very much doubt) - i am seeing this increasingly on the flat now where pacemakers serve very little purpose because they either go off too quick or hardly any quicker than the front of the peloton - anyhow gl - i actually would love to see pac and mtoy run well and not pull - and if you are right it would add hugely to the race imo so gl.
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I would love to see PAC run well also, as ive backed him.
If he can run a similar race to the Triumph where he had plenty left at the end, then I can see him running a big race. Hopefully he has improved for age and can figure in the finish. His last race told me nothing in that regard, and to be honest I'm not sure what tomorrow will tell me either. I live in hope. |
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Think he needs to hack up tomorrow, to even be running in CH budd lets hope so.
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He surely does need to hack up if he's to stand a chance of placing in the Champion - Henderson hitting form, no opposition, half decent conditions and Rayvin Black to make the pace. Absolutely no excuses tomorrow.
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Oh I've no doubt he's good enough to figure well in the CH,but he does what he did lto it won't matter how good he is.
Just the four runners tmrw. Will he settle ok? |
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IT WOULDN'T MATTER WHAT IT DID TOMORROW IT HAS ABSOLUTELY NO HOPE IN THE CH
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Cheers for that
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no baw bud
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