Cheltenham Festival
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With some of this weekend's trial races promising to give us some mouth watering match ups, what chance some REAL market changes by Monday? Up For Review verses Barters Hill for Albert Bartlett favourtism. We could have another Mullins hotpot if UFR scoots in with Barters perhaps switched to the Neptune. If BH stuffs UFR where does that leave Willie Mullin's best laid Novice Hurdle plans? Could we yet see Bellshill switched to the longer race and Yorkhill aimed at the Neptune?
One thing for sure is that we should know a lot more about where the likes of Yanworth, Shantou Village, Camping Ground, Shaneshill, Buveur D'Air and others will end up.
With the prospect of this shake up in mind, where is the value right now - and what should we be backing before the prices go?
One thing for sure is that we should know a lot more about where the likes of Yanworth, Shantou Village, Camping Ground, Shaneshill, Buveur D'Air and others will end up.
With the prospect of this shake up in mind, where is the value right now - and what should we be backing before the prices go?
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Yanworth at 8/1 for the Neptune. Will be fav by Sunday imo.
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backed yamworth for the supreme after its last win king said goes supreme had a good few quid on my new years resoulution NEVER BET A POST AT CHELTENHAM again
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why they stepping him up in trip, big mistake, he travelled like a dream through the bumper, then McCoy went to sleep and briefly allowed him to lose his place and 5 lengths, would have won without that, stayed on strongly to the line...quick 2 miles of the supreme is what he wants, but I guess it looks an ultra tough race, Min and for me Tombstone would be formidable opponents, easier race but not playing to his strengths.
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He'd be outstayed in a Neptune.
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How on earth can you know that already
 Clearly some posters own a crystal ball. I'd say most horses that stay like that in a Bumper will get 2.5m over hurdles no problem. |
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And even if he doesn't stay, how could you ever suggest it's a big mistake trying? It's absolutely the right thing to do. Try him now. If he stays, then all systems go for the Neptune. If he doesn't, decision made for the Supreme.
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I can't be bothered to write IMO after every single post...but of course I don't know it's an opinion.....why is it the right thing to try though? because they're scared of Min and co.
I can understand L'ami being stepped up as he won't be able to keep up with Douvan over 2 miles err IMO, but not Yanworth, he's got speed. |
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Because the horse has always looked like he could stay further. Why not try and find out? What if the extra trip is the making of him?
He got tapped for toe at a crucial stage of the Bumper imo and that's what cost him the race.... even though King says he's got a bit quicker, I think he looks a Neptune type. |
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Just an opinion but I think if they are scared of anything it would be Min and not the co.
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don't think he got tapped for toe myself, he travelled into the race like a dream and lost his place through McCoy being a bit too slow in getting a bit busier on him, the minute McCoy woke up he picked up again, it would have all been a bit more dragged out if he was genuinely outpaced and he certainly wouldn't have travelled into it as well as he did if he had a pace issue IMO.
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I agree they are scared of Min. But I also think the Neptune may be the better race for the horse. This weekend gives them a chance to find out. Just can't understand how anybody thinks it's a bad idea tbh.
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You're right John, although I suspect they'd need to be scared of Tombstone too.
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Only time will tell.
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CCM
You don't understand because you think he's too slow for a supreme, I think it's strange because I don't think he's too slow for a Supreme...simple. |
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I think connection does not want a repeat of last year ie Alviso Ville being drubbed by Douvan!
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Duffy. No it's nothing to do with that. You need a stayer in the Supreme anyway and I will back him wherever he goes. I am nt saying hr shores couldn't run well in a Supreme. Because I think he could.
But whatever way you look at it, the horse looks like he could get further. Why not have a try? What's the downside?mIt's not exactly uncommon to do this. I think the only way you could think it's a bad idea is if you have backed him for the Supreme. It's the same as Barters Hill going for the Donny race imo. Definitely the right decision. Best find out now rather than on the big day. |
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Remember last year when RW won on Nichols Canyon at Leopardstown beating Alvisio Ville but WM and RW were shocked they thought JPs horse was the one, just shows you even they get it wrong.
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Yes indeed. You never know until they do it on the course.
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I think that when Barters was aimed at Donny, they were probably thinking that Up For Review would stay at home - he still might - but I'm not sure that Pauling really had it in mind that he'd have the Mullins horse to deal with. For me, this is a fascinating situation as I'm pretty sure neither camp want a hard race. Perhaps it's a case of 'who will blink first?' It would be great to see them face off on Saturday but I just have that niggling feeling that one of them might dodge it.
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Yeah a real hard race could ruin the big day for either, I can't see BH and UFR taking each other on pre Cheltenham.
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I haven't backed him honest although I should have done months ago, well perhaps not now, I struggle to bet ante-post tbh.
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UFR also entered at Clonmel next Thursday.
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Fair enough Duffy. But if he were mine this is exactly what I would do. They will be a lot wiser by Sunday on what the horse is capable of and which race will suit him best.
None of us can know for sure what he will do over the extra distance. Until it's tried. |
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Barters Hill should be running at cheltenham, a horse of his class is required to have tried the cheltenham course at least once in his career, especially before the big event.
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Proper movers & shakers weekend......for what it's worth I think the following:
Shantou Village around 9/2 for Neptune Barters Hill 2/1f or shorter for AB Limini odds on for mares novice Camping ground beats Thistecrack & shortens for WH but not into fav Djakadam wins by around 3L but remains same price for GC Morning Run impressive at Donny but talked down for mares based on extra 5f in March Shaneshill wins & Wylie not sure where he'll run at the festival Mullins odds cut further for UK trainers title |
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I'd rather try him over 3m than the course myself. If he doesn't handle Cheltenham, he won't be winning anything. If he doesn't stay 3m, he could still win the Neptune.
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WPM did say today that Up For Review would travel over - I think there's a worry about how much water Clonmel can take.
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Barters Hill would stay 10 miles, owned by a syndicate they have gone for the easy cash, i cannot blame them.
In the uk top novice races need to have the pot trebled at least, it is so downheartening when the challow is worth about 20k for a grade 1. (to the winner) |
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The easy cash taking on Up For Review
I think they are doing it for the right reasons... As Pauling said... They want to know for sure he stays 3m. It obviously looks like he will, but you never know until they do it. |
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He would learn more from a top class 2m5f race at chelts imo.
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The ground was a big factor....he wanted BH to run on the better ground at Doncaster.
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The Thistlecrack vs Camping Ground matchup is the one I'm most looking forward to. Can Thistlecrack show he is as good around Cheltenham? Will Camping Ground stay? Will Ptit Zig be the fly in the ointment? He's 159 over hurdles and Nicholls think he'll improve for the trip.
Gone slightly under the radar, but Who Dares Wins vs Clan Des Obeaux looks a cracking match up in the Triumph trial. Both fairly prominent in the Triumph betting and won well so far. |
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Fascinating clash at Donny, can BH grind UFR into submission, does BH stay, fancy UFR myself.
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Think Up for Review wants it softer myself!
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Buveur D'Air the first to put the old credentials on the line. Duely bolts up - but only limited response in the market for the Supreme. It seems that the collateral form has done more for Altior. BD as short as 6-1 but was still available at 7-1 without Min with Laddies until just now - now cut to 11-2.
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Well played CCM and Yanworth Neptune backers, you couldn't have been more right, hope you won plenty and win plenty
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Fair play CCM you were spot on with Yanworth. Huge performance in atrocious ground. Likewise Thistlecrack. Overall great days racing and perfect timing for a reality check with Cheltenham so close.
I hope after today this will be the last time i hear WPM saying re. UFR "well he's by Presenting so he'll appreciate the better ground". Arghhhh. |
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Just done a trixie based on a big day yesterday... Personally I can't believe Thistlecrack is still 13-8, Yanworth is still 11-4 and Barters Hill is 7-2.
When you compare the prices of these three with the likes of Min, Douvan etc, it shows just how short some runners are purely because of connections. If the three I mentioned were WPM / RR beasts, I think they would all be nearer Evs. The Supreme looks just as competitive as the Neptune to me... Yanworth has just shown the best piece of novice form this season, and is still double the price of Min. Bonkers! |