Cheltenham Festival
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24 Jan 16
17:04
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14 Nov 01
This is a standout imo.
Weak division, loads of room for an improver. Sprinter Sacre, Sire De Grugy, Special Tiara all much the same horse at the moment. Dodging Bullets and Simonsig massive question marks over them. Bar the fav we can forget the rest. I'm not even sure there'll be 8 runners on the day.
Alright, Grugy might have been feeling two fairly quick runs on Saturday but TF was making his seasonal debut, didn't have track position and, at the age of 6, can be reasonably expected to improve past him. If he does, he improves past Sprinter and Special Tiara too.
Next stop is the Game Spirit, where he will face Simonsig and, possibly, Dodging Bullets. You can have your own opinions about either horse but that doesn't sound very scary to me.
The intention after that is to head to the Champion Chase, meaning he heads to Cheltenham on his third run off a break. Nice.
He also has an entry in the Ryanair though, so a beaten running on effort at Newbury might see him pitch up on Thursday instead. This works in our favour with NRNB as you'll know the Game Spirit's gone ok if he turns up.
I know there are plenty of Un De Sceaux fans out there so I'm not going to start a row. But I would like to know why anyone would view this horse as in the same Festival Banker bracket as Douvan or Faugheen. I don't think he is. His form doesn't say he is, and his jumping still gives the impression he could end up on the floor.
Each-way and at NRNB..the 20/1 Traffic Fluide, in my opinion the main danger to UDS with anticipated improvement, looks way too big. They've maxed me out but if you want to have another tenner on for The Head I'd be very grateful, cheers.
Weak division, loads of room for an improver. Sprinter Sacre, Sire De Grugy, Special Tiara all much the same horse at the moment. Dodging Bullets and Simonsig massive question marks over them. Bar the fav we can forget the rest. I'm not even sure there'll be 8 runners on the day.
Alright, Grugy might have been feeling two fairly quick runs on Saturday but TF was making his seasonal debut, didn't have track position and, at the age of 6, can be reasonably expected to improve past him. If he does, he improves past Sprinter and Special Tiara too.
Next stop is the Game Spirit, where he will face Simonsig and, possibly, Dodging Bullets. You can have your own opinions about either horse but that doesn't sound very scary to me.
The intention after that is to head to the Champion Chase, meaning he heads to Cheltenham on his third run off a break. Nice.
He also has an entry in the Ryanair though, so a beaten running on effort at Newbury might see him pitch up on Thursday instead. This works in our favour with NRNB as you'll know the Game Spirit's gone ok if he turns up.
I know there are plenty of Un De Sceaux fans out there so I'm not going to start a row. But I would like to know why anyone would view this horse as in the same Festival Banker bracket as Douvan or Faugheen. I don't think he is. His form doesn't say he is, and his jumping still gives the impression he could end up on the floor.
Each-way and at NRNB..the 20/1 Traffic Fluide, in my opinion the main danger to UDS with anticipated improvement, looks way too big. They've maxed me out but if you want to have another tenner on for The Head I'd be very grateful, cheers.
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I would say UDS is at least as likely to win as Mullins others purely cos he has a clear beating on form of all the other main contenders.The beating of SDG has given us a definite guide to the form.
Would not disagree with TF comments at all. |
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Cheers budd. I'm all over the 20s NRNB e/w. 16 big enough too.
Just to clarify my UDS comments...he's clear of the pack, no doubt. But he's not clear of the pack in the way horses like Faugheen are in his division and I don't think he's a superstar like Faugheen or Douvan are either. Plus if I was forced to back any of them to get round it would be Faugheen, Douvan and UDS in that order. He'll be a tough nut to crack though, without question...and it would be a mistake to slate him to justify the TF bet so I'll try and avoid that! |
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Yeh,fair price that.
With UDS,I know he's my fav horse so I will try and be objective. I feel he's capable of more if he needs it,and could well be a superstar. Problem he has is Imo he's a better hurdler and was not given the chance to show us how good. He's beaten everything easily so far that he's faced over fences,so is obviously very good. He does need opposition that can challenge him to gain some sort of superstar status I guess,and unless he gets that he's always going to be judged on beating Gods Own, and ageing or not as good ex top notchers. As for his jumping,it seems that it's his fizziness at the start of the season that caused his two falls and one of them was his first chase as a novice. It's really not as bad as some make out,and in all his races he's finished never really looked like falling. He jumped fine at Cheltenham last year,I expect the same this year. |
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I disagree with UDS run yesterday in that he never looked like falling, i felt he could have went at at least 2 fences. Maybe we were watching different races, not sure. Will have to watch it again to tell you which fences. Still think the qmcc is stronger than people think, the Arkle also, but wouldn't be backing against the WM runners now, i am all in as they say and thats it, shop now shut on my first day apart from a few accas i've had enough!
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I've seen the race a couple of times once at the course and once this morning.
Don't recall seeing anything. |
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It's probably in my head cos i want it to be
 , i aint watched it again yet, can't be bothered to be fruitfully honest.Just a bit p!ssed off with it all at the moment, my love for the sport, my love for Cheltenham and the first 5 grade ones being turned into a farce of non competitive procession!  Deep inside me i hope one or two of them do get beat, but my head says that's just not going to happen  |
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This game tame's lions. Roobs and Willie are not exempt.
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Good post HM
Only his 6th chase start for the Moores,thought that was a real eyecatching run yesterday.Time will tell how straight he was fitness wise,all the talk pre race surrounding his stablemate,there may well be plenty left to work on.Whatever his fate this season,he has made significant improvement in a short time,scopey sort,jumps really well,canny team.Only reservation, would they want both SDG/TF in the same race come festival time,potentially this lad could be the stables top 2 miler now,especially on spring ground.As your covered NRNB,nice wager to be sat on. UDS,probably his best performance to date,easy to forget he himself only 7 chase starts,there may well be plenty of improvement to come.Not keen regarding the fall scenario and his potential for getting beat,most fans want to see them all run and finnish their respective races.The only scenario he has not encountered is genuine good ground,looks to have quite rounded action,so he may be better with a little cut.Think he would have got a lot more attention in any other era,deserves to be favourite on form,is he beatable? I think he is ahead at the moment by a fair few pounds,plenty time for that to change before chelt. |
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For those of us that like to bet against shorties, i guess the only thread left is the ground. Been proper deep heavy ground all winter long and if it's a usual fez, faster ground may, just may come as a bit of a shock to the system of one or two of these WM 'bankers'
Looking at laws of sods, how often do we get 3 proper wet months in a row? We just don't. December and Jan so far been very wet, with a lot more rain in the coming weeks forecast. So what will Feb and March bring? Mainly dry, plenty of wind and winter sun perhaps  |
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i think we are yet to truly understand what the impact will be IF WPM gets 10+ winners this year and possibly even more placed efforts - I suspect the cheltenham landscape will look very different moving forward to anything any of us have seen in living memory. Many of you will have filled your boots - losses will be astronomical and the bookmakers revenge will be brutal - buckle up as after 2016 i fear it is going to be a very bumpy ride for a while and as i have said a few times before make hay while the sun shines. Some have said dont worry these things go in phases - well this will need to be a very short phase otherwise get used to some drastic and draconian adjustments. Bookmakers are already saying how difficult it is to make any money from horseracing - and ante post is particulalrly unprofitable because of positive selection (i.e. more profitable punters tend to back ante post) - many of us are already finding it incredibly difficult to get a bet on - imagine what it will be like if this year is a blood bath - so if you are going to take them make sure you take them big because they will have the last laugh and they dont really need horseracing like they used to. Thats it off to slit my wrists
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I agree Miltons Sophie. If it's a Ruby Tuesday and UDS goes on to win the Champion Chase the bookies will be demolished. My ante-post book has never looked so good, so glad I started straight after the last fesival investing bits and piece each week. Hopefully two weeks all inclusive family holiday and a new kitchen with the winnings and a chunk in the savings come March!
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foolsgold - enjoy the hols - remember slip slop slap
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Agree with the OP. I see that as a bit of value and am on Traffic Fluide at 20/1 e/w now as well. I'm happy to have 5/1 a place and my win part sat there dangling on the off chance of Un De Sceaux falling and he comes home best of the rest. With the NRNB concession I think it's a no brainer, if he runs poorly in the Game Spirit you'll most likely be getting refunded.
Mop it up before it's gone guys. |
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A shock to the system you're on cloud cuckoo land seathestars why do you think the handicapper in Britain raises the Irish hurdlers around at least 10/12lbs,something to do with finding life easier than jumping and ploughing through heavy ground
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Think it's more that the median of the Irish file is around 6-7lb lower than the British one. No one's right, no-one's wrong, it's just a different system at work so when one horse handicapped under one system turns up to run under another system the mark needs to be adjusted.
Have I understood your post, DECALEC? fyi, we have Ffos Las and if any track in Ireland can beat that you have my sympathies... |
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So all your horses appear at that gaff track to be h'caped go back a few years around 2007 and look there was no difference and understanding my post you need to be stupid to think all horses love a mudbath in Ireland
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Am not on cloud cuckoo land at all Decalec, just p!ssed off that the fez is being turned into the Willy Mullins show of non competitive carp.
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I do understand why people are disappointed by total Mullins domination but I'm 100% convinced it is just a phase - it's not as though there isn't good money being spent by powerful yards in the UK, who know what they're doing... Three or four years ago it looked like Hendo was going to destroy all in his path. For all that Ricci flashes the cash, he's not spending stupid money to get his stars. I think the buyers must just be great and Mullins training setup superb. It just means the competition has to fight a bit harder to drag themselves to that level. And, it's an old argument but perfectly valid IMO, but the UK trainers seem to be missing a trick in not running some of their horses in the weaker Graded races in Ireland. There are a few too many that don't seem to be bothered about competing with Mullins.
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tomdeane - it may be a phase - but bookmakers wont hang around to find out - and they still wont let go even after the phase is over - this has been a ticking time bomb for a while now - they have been desperate for an excuse to take cover regarding horse racing and its starting to look like they are going to get it - and once they take cover we will not see them again for years - i hope i am wrong but if they take a real blood bath this year then anything meaningful in terms of ante post betting on cheltenham will all but disappear.
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BTW think TF is a very nice young horse. He has been brilliantly handled - they knew a long time ago what they had. Fingers crossed for connections that what at the moment is huge potential turns to reality.
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Also agree re TF and don't want to hijack the thread... One thing I would say re racing betting is that you may well be right, but I wonder whether that would reinvigorate ante-post betting on here if the bookies turned away?
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tomdeane - a lot would have to change - what about multiples , what about each way, what about NRNB, - it may bring about a rethink but it would take a hell of a lot of working out
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Cheers DECLAEC, tbh I don't think you understood my post - and you certainly don't understand GB v IRE handicapping.
Anyway, this thread's about Traffic Fluide at 20/1 NRNB e/w for the Champion Chase. Or at least it was - just chopped from 20 into 14/1 folks  |
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What do you make of De Bromhead's other runner Sizing Granite? He beat your pick in the grade 1 novices at Aintree last year, although he's a couple of years older than Traffic Fluide so Traffic may well have more improvement in him tbf.
I know it's been a shocking season so far for Sizing Granite, he was beat on re-appearance to a rival who had a big race fitness edge, and then wasn't even sighted in the race Un De Sceaux fell over Christmas. There must be some talent still there, in his Aintree interview Henry seemed genuinely excited at the potential for this year and I just can't believe how bad things have turned out. I don't think he's going to run again before the festival, the spring ground is much needed and he doesn't stay much more than 2 miles so there's really nowhere else to go and the trainer has such a fantastic Champion Chase record (1 win, 3 places in the last 5 runnings). I don't think he's in Un De Sceaux's league (they ducked the Arkle last year afterall), fortunately Betfair Sportsbook still let me have a bet and they've got a "without Un De Sceaux NRNB" market so I had a little go at 33/1 without the fav. Skybet have him at 14/1 in their without UDS market so I think Betfair are being very kind. |
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Tucho - got no real comment about SG, however they were handling TF with the kiddest of kid gloves last year so wouldnt take the form at face value as far as TF is concerned. They love this horse. The clues are all there. They could easily have moppped a chelt handicap last year and hoovered the plumpton bonus - they resisted the temptation because they knew what they had on their hands - he was never going to have anything like a hard race last year. This year they pitched him in at the deepest end, with game spirit followed by CC if all goes well. - the connections know the time of day - that said i have to declare am on 50s nrnb and can be accused of pocket talking - but while i suspect it is one year too soon i will actually be very disappointed if he is not fighting for a place. I just hope things go to plan between now and march.
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Sire 'beaten by a better horse'
Gary Moore has confirmed both Sire De Grugy and Traffic Fluide on course for the Betway Champion Chase after their Ascot efforts. The pair proved no match for Un De Sceaux in Saturday's Clarence House Chase, but for different reasons Moore is hopeful that they could get closer to the hot favourite at Cheltenham - or take advantage if Un De Sceaux's fencing frailties unexpectedly resurface. "Looking back at Saturday's Clarence House, I have no real excuses for Sire De Grugy and the truth is that he was just beaten by a better horse," Moore told his Betway blog on Monday. "The ground wasn't ideal as it was a bit tacky like it sometimes gets when they put those covers down. Ideally, he'd either have liked it a lot softer or a lot better, but that's a poor excuse really. "Jamie was a little bit disappointed, but in reality there is nothing he would do differently if they raced again tomorrow. "Un De Sceaux is a very good horse and is, without doubt, the one we all have to beat in the Betway Champion Chase. He's very much the new kid on the block. He's an eight-year-old on the top of his game like we were a few years ago." "On the subject of new kids on the block, don't forget Traffic Fluide who ran a hell of a race on his seasonal reappearance. "I have to admit he surprised me a bit as I thought he would need it more than he obviously did. He's stuck to the task really well and his class has helped him see out his race. "Plenty of people have asked me how the pair compare and I must admit I always thought that Sire De Grugy had more speed. However, it isn't all about speed and Traffic Fluide's stamina will be a real positive up that Cheltenham hill. "I've always felt that two miles stretches Sire De Grugy to his limit - his sire produces five furlong winners! He gets his stamina from the dam's side and, in reality, has no real right to stay as far as he does. "As for immediate plans for the pair, Sire De Grugy has gone away for a bit of a break just to freshen him up. He has a nice 10-day holiday back at the stud with some fresh grass which will do him the world of good. "We'll then head back to Cheltenham to try and reverse the form with Un De Sceaux. There is no point being scared and someone has to take him on. "As for Traffic Fluide, he'll be aimed at the Betway Champion Chase now too. We've got the option of going to Cheltenham via the Game Spirit, but we'll see how he is. "After his bold showing at Ascot, I'd have no worries about heading straight to Cheltenham now with him either." |
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Must admit SG has not really been on my radar Tucho. But you could legitimately propose he wasn't quite ready fto and Leopardstown was a non event on that ground, so reasons to be cheerful - and as you say, the trainer is always to be taken seriously.
I have a feeling the old guard are going to blow out here, so there's surely room for a couple of second season chasers to follow the certainty home.... |
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Teacher explain how they came about with this 6/7lbs when it wasn't there before 2007 and Irish horses have been known to be rated 19lbs more over there to the disgust of Irish trainer's
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I've already explained. GB handicappers didn't used to keep their own set of Irish ratings. Irish hurdlers used to have an unacceptable strike rate. So GB handicappers keep their own Irish ratings now, which helps give parity to the two files and hopefully levels the playing field. Some Irish trainers still can't get it into their heads and think the GB handicappers chuck 7lb on cos they're Irish.
I must admit your new one about the ground I haven't heard before  Fyi the British strike rate in Irish handicap hurdles is ****g shocking. But the Irish have always been very good at looking after their own. |
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...and why shouldn't they be, btw?
May I ask if you think Wicklow Brave was badly treated in the County last year? The picture through my bins was not of a horse carrying half a stone too much. |
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the handicap ratings in ireland and england are on a slightly different scale.so the perception that a horse is 7lbs "worse" in english handicaps isnt quite true..
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It isn't anywhere near true, kavvie. We can't even agree on the same Jump wfa scale, which is built into handicap ratings, so on that basis alone some ratings are going to be different. Then you turn to 25 runner Maiden Hurdles with only two horses trying and Noel being 'sympathetic' to the remaining 23 and what would anyone expect?
Wicklow Brave shat up in last year's County - the next FIVE horses home were Irish. Zabana and Taglietelle were done a neck and a half in the CCup. This is a non debate to anyone with a brain in their head. |
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Interesting form lines round the protagonists who I realistically take to be ...UDS, SS, SDG ,TF plus Gods Own , Dodging Bullets and maybe Sizing Granite .
Kempton Dec 14 Vibrato beats Gods Own by 10 l Chelt Arkle - UDS beats Gods Own by 6 lengths Chelt CC - Dodging Bullets beats a few in a poor renewal Aintree - Sizing Granite beats Gods Own by 1L who beats TF BY 2L Exeter - Haldon GC - Vibrato beats Gods Own by 6l in receipt of 3lbs Tingle Creek - SDG beats Vibrato by 7 l Desert Orchis - SS beats SDG BY 3/4 Oof a length and Vibrato by 7l Clarence House - UDS beats SDG by 5 l and SDG beats TF by a shd. So UDS the class horse who on the form line through a fully fit SDG has the beating of SS . On Aintree form Sizing Granite and Gods Own beat TF but he is clearly highly progressive and was only a 5 yr old first season novice at the time . Dodging Bullets in theory is the horse UDS has to beat but even putting aside the Nicholls bad form I cant have him beating a fit UDS ,SS or SDG. Dodging Bullets time in the CC on good ground was slower than UDS on good to soft in the Arkle. Sizing Granite , Special Tiara and Simonsig (if he is sound ) could run big races on spring ground but I think it is between the old boys SS and SDG , the outstanding form horse UDS and the young improver TF who was apparently given an easy time at Ascot, wasn't fully wound up and wants better ground . At 16/1 nrnb that must be the value . |
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I was alarmed to see TF pop up in the Ascot Chase entries (2m 5f).
Worrying.... |
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headmaster
i thought his run at ascot was just about the best performance by any horse that weekend all things taken into account including leopardstown on the sunday,20/1 with a run is without doubt the wrong price. and yes this game tames lions and always will do. the minute you think you have the game by the bo..ox along comes something to kick you in them. |
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OUT FOR SEASON.
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Yep, gutted. Quite a prescient last sentence from foxy above! (Cheers foxy
 )Thank gawd for the NRNB (from our own selfish standings). Gary sounded genuinely floored. At least time is on Traffic Fluide's side. |
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Ah, a massive shame. A horse with great potential.
Cheers for the heads up though Headmaster on the 20's, thought he was overpriced at that. But yeah, no harm done with NRNB. |