Cheltenham Festival
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It could easily be argued that Djakadam was ridiculously overpriced in the Autumn. 16/1 was available and he appeared to be the forgotten horse of the race. The Mullins camp themselves seemed far from enthusiastic about his chances, as Vautour and Don Poli were seen as the stable's main contenders.
So what has happened since?
Djakadam has come out and won, admittedly in impressive style, a weak Grade 1 in which none of the principals have enhanced the form since, and he's now 4/1 for the Gold Cup. And, good though he looked, he was driven out all the way to the line, as Walsh thought the riderless horse was a rival, against a Valseur Lido who failed to make any impression in the King George and Gilgamboa who was well beaten off 150 next time out.
The questions that Djakadam faces are no different to the ones he faced at the start of the season, namely, is he good enough and does he go as well on better going? Having been defeated by Coneygree and Don Cossack in his only competitive Grade 1's, these would seem to be unresolved.
So, by ducking the competitive races, Djakadam has seen his price contract steadily by default. His stable still seems unexcited by him, certainly compared to Vautour.
4/1 can't be seen as any price in my view. It will be longer on the day if Vautour runs, as Ruby will surely ride him, and it will most probably be longer on the normal Cheltenham good to soft if that comes up. And, again, if he fails to put the Cotswold Chase to bed with complete authority.
A fine chaser, but 4/1 favourite?
So what has happened since?
Djakadam has come out and won, admittedly in impressive style, a weak Grade 1 in which none of the principals have enhanced the form since, and he's now 4/1 for the Gold Cup. And, good though he looked, he was driven out all the way to the line, as Walsh thought the riderless horse was a rival, against a Valseur Lido who failed to make any impression in the King George and Gilgamboa who was well beaten off 150 next time out.
The questions that Djakadam faces are no different to the ones he faced at the start of the season, namely, is he good enough and does he go as well on better going? Having been defeated by Coneygree and Don Cossack in his only competitive Grade 1's, these would seem to be unresolved.
So, by ducking the competitive races, Djakadam has seen his price contract steadily by default. His stable still seems unexcited by him, certainly compared to Vautour.
4/1 can't be seen as any price in my view. It will be longer on the day if Vautour runs, as Ruby will surely ride him, and it will most probably be longer on the normal Cheltenham good to soft if that comes up. And, again, if he fails to put the Cotswold Chase to bed with complete authority.
A fine chaser, but 4/1 favourite?
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Think Timeform have the likes of Don Cossack, Vautour & Cure Card at least 10lbs+ clear of him too
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I do hope Ruby chooses Vautour over Djakadam. I'll take a length of rope for him when he comes back down the walkway.
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His price is reflecting the likely hood of Vautour running and Ruby riding him. When plans have been finalised the floodgates will open and which ever one Ruby is on will be overbet. My prediction is 3/1fav and 6/1 either or on both horses.
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He ran a blinder last year in what looked a pretty good race.
He was for me a bigger price than he should have been start of season but I do think that was based on his end of season beating,and maybe some thinking about having such a hard race for a young horse in the Gold Cup,and what sort of effect that could leave on him? This season for me he has come out this season and proved he's fine,winning easily over a shorter distance than ideal for a Gold Cup horse,which he is proven to be. For me he's deserved fav,less questions to answer than the other fancied horses. Maybe 4 is a tad tight,but if that's the case so is the price of those with questions to answer. |
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Djakadam has fell and placed at the festival just like The Don so obviously he don't like Cheltenham and has no chance.
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Eh??
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He means some people think don cossack isn't a gold cup candidate because he hasn't won at the festival in 2 attempts, having placed once and fallen once. Djakadam has a similar record, yet is a short priced fav. Not an opinion i completely share, but 7/2 is too short.
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Yeh,well Djakadam nearly won the Gold Cup so course and distance is not a problem.
Cannot say the same for Don Cossack or any of the other main fancies. He has less to prove. |
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Agre re the price,like I say earlier they are all too short if he is,aside from RTR who I think is too big.
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I am not knocking Djakadam,i can't see him out of the first three but not a backable price and may shorten a tad more.
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Cue Card and Don Poli are the only market principles who have won a 3m Chase this year.
You can pick holes in all of them to be honest. Cue Card should be clear favourite for this in my eyes. |
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Formwise this season you are dead right Chief.
Problem though is he's never been further than 3m. I think that is the big point when talking about worthy favs or those with things to prove.We all know all these stay 3m anyway,but not 3m 2. Djakadam and RTR have less to prove in that respect and should be closer in the betting than they are. One probably too short and one definitely too big. |
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"Cue Card and Don Poli are the only market principles who have won a 3m Chase this year"
If one meant 2015, so did Don Cossack, and comfortably too against Djakadam and Road To Riches, but fell 2 out when challenging Cue Card in the KG 2015. But for that the consensus opinion was the result could have been very different. |
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This season I meant, not calendar year.
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have to say i agree with the premise of the first poster and thought Djakadam is an uneasy favorite for the race. I never feel that the Mullins camp think that Djakadam is anything particularly special and they should know and i honestly think Ruby much prefers Vautour. Horses beaten in the Gold Cup have an unenviable record although he could improve for being a year older. If it is soft my personal view is that Don Cossack goes off Favourite and on good ground Djakadam drifts badly in the face of a wall of money on Vautour (rightly or wrongly as i did think the KG could have suggested he was a non-stayer) He is the one horse of the Rich Ricci brigade i could see the bookies wanting to lay.
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The one horse? They'll be all over Vroum Vroum Mag like a rash if she turns up.
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sorry forgot her, although she is unlikely to go off Fav!
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VVM has a lot of improving to do to get anywhere near what Thistlecrack and Cole Harden have achieved on the track. She may well have a lot of improvement in her but she is some way short based on performances to date. I would not touch her at current prices.
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I wouldn't bet against it if Mullins is firing on all cylinders as expected. There will be plenty who racked up the Mullins accumulators before Christmas ( I think I've got about ten on the go) and they could have massive liabilities rolling forward.
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VVM will be getting 7lbs mares allowance and Mullins will not run her in the WH if he doesn't feel she has a better chance than AP. AP is a good benchmark as she finished a clear 2nd to MOT in the 2014 renewal. VVM may well not be WH standard but I have to laugh at some dismissing her chances as if they can be certain she is not good enough. Willie knows.
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As for Djakadam, its not a price that is attractive but the GC is a really difficult puzzle to solve and is the most interestin of the major championship races for this reason. The only horse that I feel is way underpriced is Don Poli who should be twice its present odds based on the formbook.
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trigger - if you are referring to me.... I am not dismissing her chances I am just staying she has a lot of improving to do to get near the Fav and last years winner and I would want much better odds than being offered. I really liked VVM for the Ryanair with her allowance but that now looks an unlikely option.
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