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shockster
17 Jan 16 16:28
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Date Joined: 26 Oct 05
| Topic/replies: 672 | Blogger: shockster's blog
I've been chipping away at this one for a while and think it's gone under the radar. Still 25/1 and think it's a cracking EW bet.

Killultagh Vic is all the rage but a close look at this guys form makes great reading.

Starting last January he beat Sizing Codelco 6L giving 3lbs. Shaneshill beat the same horse last time 4L off levels, both horses made mistakes 2 out.

Zabana then ran 2nd to Aux Ptits Soins in the Coral Cup btn 1/4L off 144 and giving the winner 5lb and showing he acts at Cheltenham.  APS now best priced 16/1 World Hurdle. Killultagh Vic won the boys race over C&D off 135.

Zabana then finished last season with a very creditable 3rd beaten 9L by Jezski and Hurricane Fly at Punchestown.

He has had 1 Novice Chase this season beating Blair Perrone almost 2L (yes KV would have won much further today against him) and another 5L back to Tell Us More but improvement is almost inevitable on his first run looking at last season.

I am not saying he is going to win or anything stupid like he's a certainty but at the prices i believe he is very good value 25/1 in comparison to Shaneshill/Killultagh Vic around 4 or 5/1.  Many others in the AP list could also go to other races and there's an outside chance Zabana could go RSA,

Just my idea of a value bet.
Pause Switch to Standard View Zabana - JLT Chase
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Report painterman39 January 17, 2016 8:00 PM GMT
I would have to agree with all of the above , outstanding value at 25s
Report The Dragon January 17, 2016 9:18 PM GMT
good write up cheers
Report nocturnal January 17, 2016 10:24 PM GMT
Shockster....Agree

Only 7,thought he should have won the coral cup,travelled really well,think hes better on a sound surface,which he should get in March.Entered in the grade 1 Flogas 6th feb,needs more experience at this stage,of interest wherever they go with him,likeable horse.
Report trigger3 January 17, 2016 11:26 PM GMT
Good reasoned case for backing Zabana especially considering his price. He's certain not one I could see shortening in the weeks ahead and is a d cent price.
Report trigger3 January 17, 2016 11:27 PM GMT
## certain not=certainly (predictive text for you)
Report shockster January 18, 2016 10:58 AM GMT
Well the shortening of the price didn't take long. Blue on Oddschecker and now only Hills holding 25's.  Had a bit more before it's all gone.
Report The Dragon January 18, 2016 11:29 AM GMT
must have read your write up shockstarWink
Report robbo69 January 18, 2016 12:18 PM GMT
Was tipped up by the Irish Bloke on ATR last week as best value outsider from Ireland. That would explain the price going.
Report robbo69 January 18, 2016 12:18 PM GMT
Was tipped up by the Irish Bloke on ATR last week as best value outsider from Ireland. That would explain the price going.
Report The Dragon January 18, 2016 12:29 PM GMT
JLT NOVICES' CHASE - Cheltenham, Thursday March 17

With half the jumps season done and dusted, January is usually a good time to delve into the markets for the Cheltenham Festival in a bid to eke out some value on races that have yet to capture the betting public’s imagination as well as others. One such race that needs addressing is the JLT Novices’ Chase, as it’s one of the few championship races where there’s no definitive pecking order established by the bookmakers, or confirmed running plans by many trainers.

The connections of BRISTOL DE MAI (best price 16/1), however, have intimated that this race is very much on the agenda for their charge, and as such, he has to be a huge consideration in the ante-post market with this Grade 1 event as the likely target.

A Grade 1 winner already over hurdles, the son of Saddler Maker has transferred that sort of class to the larger obstacles, winning twice and finishing runner-up to arguably the two best British-trained novices in the shape of Garde Le Victoire and Ar Mad. Nigel Twiston-Davies’ inmate had the misfortune to bump into the former on his first start over fences, but then made no mistake at the second time of asking when routing the similarly useful Karezak by a wide margin at Warwick.

Although beaten fair and square by Ar Mad when upped in grade in the Henry VIII Novices Chase at Sandown on his next outing, it’s this form-line which makes him such an interesting contender away from the 2m category for future engagements. As we all know, the time of that Grade 1 contest at the Esher venue was over five seconds faster than the Tingle Creek run an hour later on the same card, so even accounting for the fact he finishing 10 lengths behind the winner, Bristol De Mai still would have beaten the likes of Sire De Grugy and Special Tiara using the stopwatch as a guide. The form has not only been boosted by Ar Mad himself - who beat Vaniteux at Kempton subsequently - but by fifth-placed Bouvreuil, who lowered the colours of hot-pot Vyta Du Roc at Doncaster next time.

All-in-all, everything looks totally believable about the race and that is why Bristol De Mai looks overpriced for the JLT when you analyse his accomplishments that day. On top of that, we know he stays the trip well courtesy of a resounding success over 2m 4f at Leicester last time out and that he handles pretty much most types of ground. Furthermore, he appears to be a really sound jumper and that solid technique should stand him good stead when the pressure cooker is switched on at championship level.

With his old rivals Ar Mad and Garde Le Victoire likely to stay down the two-mile route, there’s no question that the free-going grey has the best form on offer of the home contingent at this stage and that is why his price of 16/1 currently looks so appealing.

Clearly, Willie Mullins is likely to have a huge say in the argument with the likes of Shaneshill and Killultagh Vic waiting in the wings, but with doubts about so many others in the ante-post lists at time of writing, it makes sense to get involved with the selection before many punters cotton-on to his obvious-looking claims.

Bristol De Mai
JLT Novices Chase
1pt E/W
Report The Dragon January 18, 2016 12:30 PM GMT
put up by andy holding
Report gutfeeling January 18, 2016 5:35 PM GMT
I agree with Mr Holding.

JLT Novice Chase – Bristol De Mai
1pt EW @16/1 Various.

Nigel Twiston – Davies has ran 3 horses in the JLT with 2 of those reaching the places & neither were as classy as Bristol De Mai who looks a near certain runner with connections likely to split up their two best novice chasers with L’ami Serge Arkle bound so at 16/1 I’d like to get BDM into the ante-post book. I’ll not dwell on his juvenile hurdling career but any horse who can take a Grade 1 on it’s Uk debut is obviously talented and so far his chasing career has shown he has transferred this ability to the larger obstacles.
First start at Uttoxeter he faced his old adversary Garde la Victorie & gave him a real target to aim at as he went off hard in front, Possibly too hard as coming to 2 out he was running on empty and barely picked up at the last so while he lost he came 21 lengths clear of the field so we can take a positive from the race along with his jumping which was spot on throughout.

Turned out at Warwick which is a good course for front runners he never see another rival as he sauntered to his first chase win from another old rival and former Grade 1 winning hurdler Karezak which set him up for a tilt at the Henry VIII novice chase at Sandown. One of the stiffest jumping tests for novices he handled the course admirably but I think it took a real leap of faith for anyone to envisage Ar Mad taking this prize although for me it showed Bristol De Mai might struggle against the top 2 milers as he jumps & travels through his races beautifully he just lacks that change of gear that you need for 2m racing so a step up in trip looked the next logical step although in his defence the form has been well advertised with Ar Mad since accounting for Vaniteux & Bouvreuil who finished last having won a nice race at Doncaster beating Vyta Du Roc on his next outing.

Took in a nothing race at Leicester over 2m4f on heavy ground which seems to suit him more than most and really he was never out of second gear in winning by 7 lengths so we know the trip is no concern so it’s now a matter of where he goes next as it would be nice to see a win at Graded class before March although this wouldn’t overly be a concern if he went straight to the Festival as we know his jumping is sound, The trip is what he requires & although he has never been to Cheltenham his record going left handed is 2 wins & 3 places from 5 starts and undulating courses he is 2 wins from 2 starts.

French breds have taken 3 of these from only 5 runnings so while he is a little young they do tend to be more forward than our Irish or British bred stock so I can’t see a lack of experience getting the better of him as he has already had 4 chase starts which is ample pre Cheltenham and given his running style he’ll not get caught up in any traffic problems.
Report wellchief January 18, 2016 7:25 PM GMT
Good work Shockster.
Report shockster January 20, 2016 3:31 PM GMT
Tell Us More who ran 3rd to ZABANA at Leopardstown over Xmas runs in the 3.45 Gowran tomorrow. A boost to the form would be nice before ZABANAs run in the G1 Flogas Novice chase at Leopardstown on 6th February.
Report The Dragon January 20, 2016 3:34 PM GMT
will watch with interest thanks
Report SEATHESTARS....NO1 January 21, 2016 3:55 PM GMT
Tell us More doing nothing other than boost the Zabana form there

Backed him at the start of the season at 25s remembering the hype from his hurdling days lol, encouraging looking, but obviously a lot more excited with Kill vic 14s and Zabana 20s so far
Report delsie777 January 21, 2016 4:00 PM GMT
Don't think Tell Us More is good enough to go to any race at Cheltenham - Mount Gunnery and Young Finnegan? Good placing. Shocking race imo.
Report shockster January 21, 2016 4:12 PM GMT
If there had been a decent novice in there I doubt Tell Us More would have won jumping like that.  However, he was still good enough to win easily and it didn't let the Zabana form down. TUM jumped much better going the other way around Leopardstown.
Report shockster February 3, 2016 3:44 PM GMT
Has there been anything said today about Zabana? I know it runs Saturday but sea of blue on Oddschecker and best priced 12/1!!!
Report shockster February 3, 2016 3:51 PM GMT
As if by magic!!!

PUNTERS are clearly expecting a big run from the Andrew Lynch-trained Zabana in Saturday's Flogas Novice Chase at Leopardstown, with William Hill reporting a major move for the seven-year-old in their market for the JLT Novices' Chase on the third day of the Cheltenham Festival.

Zabana certainly has form for the spring festivals as he was beaten just a quarter of a length by World Hurdle fancy Aux Ptits Soins in last year's Coral Cup, giving the winner 5lb, and was third behind Jezki in Grade 1 company at Punchestown.

He began his chasing campaign with a cosy win at Punchestown in December and has been heavily supported for the JLT ahead of his step up to Grade 1 company this weekend.

"There's a proper punt on Zabana, with some serious cash suggesting many like his chances for the Cheltenham Festival," said William Hill spokesman Jon Ivan-Duke.

William Hill have reacted by going 10-1 (from 16) for the the first race on day three and he has been cut across the board into joint second favourite at a best-priced 12-1 behind 5-2 market leader Killultagh Vic.
Report wellchief February 3, 2016 3:55 PM GMT
Looking like an excellent shout at 25's shockster.
Report slowerthanjohn February 3, 2016 4:20 PM GMT
They all tipped Zabana on the Final Furlong podcast.
Report shockster February 3, 2016 4:30 PM GMT
Yeah just listened to the podcast, it was put on this morning.  Took them long enough to read this. DevilLaugh
Report Jb23 February 3, 2016 6:03 PM GMT
Good work Shockster. Sitting rather smugly on 25s! Ha!
Report SEATHESTARS....NO1 February 3, 2016 7:06 PM GMT
Missed 25s but happy enough with 20s

Good work boys

Keep it up lol

Love this forum every Year!
Report shockster February 5, 2016 7:49 PM GMT
Well Zabana now down to 10/1 and clear 2nd Fav behind Kilultagh Vic. Tomorrow is a real test in the Flogas at Leopardstown so fingers crossed.

This brings me on to another Value selection that I have backed as a second string to my JLT bow.

OUTLANDER 25/1 looks great value also. Last season as a novice he ran 3 times before the festival winning twice at 2.5 miles and beaten at 3m.  The 2nd win at Leopardstown, he beat amongst others Kilultagh Vic (Fav for the JLT), Windsor Park (Neptune Winner), Martello Tower(Albert Bartlett Winner) & No More Heros(current Fav for RSA). At the festival a 6L 6th is not as bad as it seems. He was wide throughout and fiddled/Iffy jumps when the sprint was on. 

This season his jumping has looked good and he is 2 from 2 so has to be respected.  At 25/1 he is also the shortest price of Gigginstown horses in the race so looks their main hope and this 2m5f is his trip. He must be odds on to go for this race and as such 25/1 to me looks far too big.  He's also Fav tomorrow to beat Zabana which makes his 25/1 quote seem crazy compared to the 10/1 Zabana.

Anyway thats my thoughts and on both now at 25/1 for the JLT.
Report stevo1 February 5, 2016 7:55 PM GMT
Agree shockster he is a big price,will find out tomorrow anyway.
Report roobuck February 5, 2016 9:01 PM GMT
Also agree, had a few bob on
Report FOYLESWAR February 5, 2016 9:10 PM GMT
worth a poke jlt looks the race rather than the rsa imo
Report willz February 5, 2016 9:44 PM GMT
Just watched the replay of Zabana's debut over fences and bar from fiddling one he jumped beautifully and travelled like a dream. Only just beginning to sort out my Cheltenham bets and picked up this thread which is great work!!

Interestingly there is a form line between Outlander and Zabana. Mr Diablo was 7.25l behind Zabana. Outlander had just taken Mr Diablo's measure at the 2nd last at Punchestown when that horse came to grief when beginning to tire so i would say Outlander would have finished a similar if not more distance ahead. So a saver on Outlander is a shrewd move.

I found Zabana visually more impressive but there is not much between them. Outlander is 2-2 and Zabana 2-3 at the course and with the classy Pont Alexandre and Monksland (Gr1 form tie-ins with other novices) tomorrows race looks very interesting! This race historically throws up some Cheltenham pointers and i am going to join Shockster ante post advice
Report mayburydrr February 5, 2016 11:59 PM GMT
outlander does look a cracking bet but impossible to know which race he will go for
Report stevo1 February 6, 2016 12:18 AM GMT
Think it would be JLT if running well tomorrow, as owners have No More Heroes in RSA.
Report DECALEC February 6, 2016 3:56 AM GMT
and why not the 4milerConfused
Report shockster February 6, 2016 8:05 AM GMT
I would say JLT because Gigginstown & Brian Cooper don't have a viable alternative and also all Outlanders best form is at 2.5 miles.

Obviously more will be known after Today's race, but should he win then 25/1 will be just a dream as winner likely to be 2nd fav IMO.
Report scooby91 February 6, 2016 11:01 AM GMT
I think outlander will go rsa. Although I had also backed for jlt.
Gigginstown always gave multiple runners in the rsa and willies lacking in that department. Whether that's outlander measure of my dreams or roi des francs I'm not sure, but I'd be very suprised if giggingstown diddnt go mob handed in a race that's very likely to cut up and there whole buying philosophy being 3 mile chasers,  Also think outlander would be done for toe in the jlt with something positively ridden, hes a grinder of a horse.
Imo that would suit the rsa down to the ground.
But to be fair I also thought black hercules would go rsa.
Report willz February 6, 2016 12:50 PM GMT
I have to admit as much as a fan i am of Killultagh Vic i was not overly impressed with his jumping in his 2 chases so far. Felt he bunny hopped a few of the fences and obviously he made that huge error at the last in his most recent start. Cheltenham could find him out in a race run at Championship pace and with him taking a large portion of the market i think it is ripe for an ew bet. We will know more later today!!!
Report buddeliea February 6, 2016 3:02 PM GMT
Not good at all from Zabana,but like Outlander.
BDM impressive as well at Sandown.
Report charwell. February 6, 2016 3:03 PM GMT
BDM looks a machine.
Report scooby91 February 6, 2016 3:26 PM GMT
Hope outlander goes rsa from a selfish point of view,;I'm green to £880 at 28.0 jlt but £5400 on rsa at 55.0. I heard what bran cooper said after the race  but I can see him winning the rsa where I'm not sure if he'd win the jlt.
Report delsie777 February 6, 2016 3:31 PM GMT
4 miler - all day long. Given the conditions it was the perfect trial. That lets Roi Des Franc into the RSA as second string.
Report shockster February 6, 2016 3:32 PM GMT
What did Cooper say about Outlander?

Zabana didn't jump well enough. Maybe better on decent ground, but clutching at straws I think.
Report delsie777 February 6, 2016 3:34 PM GMT
Said he had speed enough for the JLT. That's cos he can't ride it in the 4 miler!
Report shockster February 6, 2016 3:56 PM GMT
Outlander beat Kilultagh Vic over Hurdles so must have every chance in the JLT.
Report duffy February 6, 2016 5:43 PM GMT
I wasn't entirely downhearted with his performance today, he travelled really well inbetween the fences and I think that he maybe suffered at the fences through Russell not being too bothered today and was left to pop in his own time rather than being fired at them a bit more, as I said he noticeably travelled well though a large part of the race and don't think the way the race ended up for him is a true measure of his ability.
Report buddeliea February 6, 2016 6:56 PM GMT
Don't see why anyone would think 4 miler after hes just won over 2 and a half and quiet impressively given the ground I thought.
JLT for him.NMH RSA and RDF 4 Miler, be surprised any different to that.
Report delsie777 February 6, 2016 7:09 PM GMT
OK budd, you got me - a bit tongue in cheek, I know.
You are probably right about Outlander - and I know I am in a minority - but what I said was I would LIKE to see him in the 4 miler as I think he is the perfect horse for it. He travels and jumps so well and as today proved, he stays. Today he outstayed 3 milers over two and a half and given better ground I just think he would absolutely trot up in the 4 miler given the way that race is run. He may have the speed for a JLT but I doubt it and I don't think he's in the same class as More Of That if he went to the RSA. I was glad that Willie Mullins mentioned the 4 miler in his ATR interview, but as you say, it IS unlikely. I haven't backed him but if he was confirmed I would be all over it, but I don't think he has a winning chance in the other races.
Report miltons sophie February 6, 2016 7:12 PM GMT
wpm was 1/100 to mention all three races
Report shockster February 6, 2016 7:19 PM GMT
Budds got it spot on where the Giggs horses are heading and would be barmy any other way if they all get there.
Report DECALEC February 6, 2016 7:37 PM GMT
ffs smell the coffee this is headed to 4milerCrazy
Report scooby91 February 6, 2016 7:42 PM GMT
What about tell us more, rule the world and measure of my dreams, the latter has ability imo
Report miltons sophie February 6, 2016 7:43 PM GMT
DECALEC - you should request commission from pp
Report stevo1 February 6, 2016 7:47 PM GMT
No way Outlander goes listed 4 miler imo.
Report DECALEC February 6, 2016 7:48 PM GMT
What about tell us more, rule the world and measure of my dreams, the latter has ability imo
Rate reply:
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i wish i could believe in my dreamsGrin
Report delsie777 February 6, 2016 7:49 PM GMT
They really believe he wont go there, DECALEC - go figure!
Report DECALEC February 6, 2016 7:57 PM GMT
think of last year WPM could have won RSA & 4MILER IF THE O'LEARY'S LISTEN TO THE MAN BEST POSITIONED TO KNOW esp EDDIE WTF WUD he know oh yeah he knows OUTLANDER has absolutely no chance in JLT OR RSA JUST BEING HONEST AND IF HE DOSEN'T KNOW SURE MICK HAS ENOUGH LSD TO FIND OUT JUST DON'T PAY TO FIND OUT AS WELLCool
Report willz February 6, 2016 8:49 PM GMT
Outlander was impressive to day and the JLT looks perfect IMO. Wouldn't give up on Zabana just yet as he made a mistake at one of the first fences down the back and just seemed to lose confidence after that. However would like to see him gain some more experience but fear it is a little to close to Chelt now to be squeezing in another race.
Report shockster February 10, 2016 12:57 PM GMT
Timeform figures for the top 3 in the JLT:

Outlander 150p
Kilultagh Vic 148p
Bristol De Mai 147p

They also Make No More Heroes 155p RSA

It would be strange for Gigginstown not to run Outlander when he's Timeform Top rated?
Report duffy February 10, 2016 1:37 PM GMT
Don't think outlander is good enough for the JLT myself, he'd had about enough come the end the other day and after looking to win the race easy, he was actually being closed down again by PA and Monks come the closing stages.

He has a question mark over the ground with him too with regards to better ground, he was doing well in the winter in Ireland last year but was exposed when the festival came along.
Report shockster February 10, 2016 1:54 PM GMT
You maybe right Duffy, but last year he made a mistake 4 out, was slow 3 out and then came about 6 wide around the last bend as he was trying to make up lost ground due to losing his race position and still was only beat 6L back.  I think he jumps much better than he hurdles and hopefully won't be out of position this time.
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