Who does Henderson want L'Ami Serge to avoid most? You decide...

No chance with either has he?

Why the heck would he avoid a novice chaser??

No. None at all, barring accidents!

Here we go again!!!

I hope he goes Arkle, I have lots of accas with KV for JLT so wouldn't want Serge riding against me

This thread is hilarious

Hes been saying Arkle all along and next race is the Kingmaker so I suspect you are ok.

i think the thread is about who is the better horse douvan or kv - or have i misread you budd - interesting that people have chosen to interpret the way they have

I read is as L'Ami Serge might as well not turn up because Douvan and KV are already passed the line.

Add Faugheen, Min, Vautour and Annie Power, Willie already has six winners

suspect budd was being a little mischievious and people took the bait

I wouldnt be backing anything other than the two Mullins if you fancy Lami wait till non runner no bet

That's how I read it Chief.Hence my reaction about why avoid a novice chaser.

Here we go again was a reference to....heres another thread with a mullins cert,well actually 2 this time!!

Not really being mischievous,more a tad fed up with the Mullins obsessive threads to be honest.

Don't help that I have just watched my team lose!!!

Serge is a cert in the Arkle and KV in JLT .. TO RUN in but please the rest don't bother to turn up

sorry my mistake for some reason i thought budd had started the thread - was thinking a little irony had crept in to the forum - now i realise it was just business as usual - apologies - as you were - back to the same status quo

Now that would have been mischievous!!

I wasn't suggesting that the Mullins horses were certainties - just thought that with Hendo always saying he wished WPM would stay at home, that any thought he had of steering L'Ami Serge away from another tonking at the hooves of Douvan might have been scuppered by K.Vic's probable appearance in the race he may have considered a softer option - namely the JLT. The advantage of going to the Arkle is that he will only have one Mullins horse to beat, rather than two in the JLT!

whichever way you wrap it up delsie its just another way of having a dig.

Well the day the top trainers start avoiding horses in the novice chases at our festival,is the day we start worrying for our festival.

Your best 2 mile novice chasers run in the best 2m novice chase.....if thought good enough,simple as that.

Fair enough to avoid a proven superstar in a senior race like Sprinter Sacre was,but avoiding novices with very few runs and experience??
No No No!!!

All of Arkle and JLT markets are being based largely on hurdles form at the minute; not one of the leading fancies has really had a proper test apart from the Ar Mad/Vaniteux race.

Douvan wins at 2/11 and 4/7
L'ami 2/11 and 1/6
Shaneshill 1/4 and 4/7
Killultagh Vic 1/5 and 2/7

Therefore, because each of them have basically having processions in these uncompetitve novice chases, the markets are based on last years festival.  You never know what will happen when they finally have a race over fences.  If KV makes a mistake only 20% as bad as that one in the JLT he'll be cooked.

It's a risky business taking the short prices availble now, when we haven't properly seen any of them really jump a fence at anything like an Arkle or JLT pace.

absolutely and may the best horse on the day win and i for one couldnt care less who its trained by

Don't think Hendo will avoid a race because of a horse, just go for the one he thinks he'll have best chance in. Actually think he's more suited to JLT, but hope he goes for Arkle as that's the prestige race imo

Jan 17, 2016 -- 4:47PM, buddeliea wrote:

Your best 2 mile novice chasers run in the best 2m novice chase.....if thought good enough,simple as that.Fair enough to avoid a proven superstar in a senior race like Sprinter Sacre was,but avoiding novices with very few runs and experience??No No No!!!

thank God Faugheen lost as we would've had 4 runner CH and back to the 1920s

Excellent point, Chief. I guess on chase form Ar Mad has the best form?

Hendo might not, but LS owners could... hope they go Arkle as the fast pace will suit him better

I would say so Delsie.

At least last year we had seen UDS tear off in the Irish Arkle at breakneck speed and put Clarcam and Gilgamboa to bed with half a mile left.  Looking at that race now, it is nothing special, but at the time Clarcam and Gilgamboa were high on a lot of people's Arkle list.

Apache Stronghold and Valsuer Lido had some great battles, and Apache only just got touched off by Don Poli.

This year, it seems all the market leaders have very sketchy chase form.  You can only beat what's put in front of you, but bookies slashing prices on the back of multiple 1/6 and 2/11 wins is stupid.

The AS/VL reference refers to the JLT this time last year.

timtin

not sure about that myself

Sprinter was in a league of his own, Faugheen is not imo

"That performance was good enough to run in the Arkle but he's possibly more likely to go for the JLT.

"We'll see neared the time and he'll get an entry in all three, the Arkle, JLT and RSA. He has that sort of scope.

"We know he stays but the the way he jumps he can come back in trip and if I hadn't Douvan I'd probably say Arkle straight away."

This is my problem with Mullins.  You say that's good enough for the Arkle, and normally you'd say Arkle straight away; so put him in the Arkle!!!

I say this as a JLT backer, but it doesn't matter if you train the fav for the Arkle; if you think KV is an Arkle horse, don't put him in the JLT.  If I was Wyle, I'd be saying to Willie, why are you making it harder for me in the JLT with Shanshill, when you've just admitted he'd be an Arkle one.

Yep, Wylie is gonna love that!!

It will be OK - Willie will pull Faugheen and Artic Fire out of the Irish Champion to leave Nichols Canyon a penalty kick. That'll keep him sweet!

Excellent...another race not to look forward to!!

So basically stuff the racing fans who were looking forward to it,i need to keep my owners sweet.
That's my priority.
Ok Willie,but just remember where the sport would be without us.

budd don't get wind up, Ricci said he's willing to forget Punchestown with Faugheen only to run in the Irish next week.

He needs to stick to the plan and run him in the arkle if that's what it was! This is the biggest festival and you have to have a go and see what happens and not think after it I should have had a go! Have a go if you get beat you get beat they can all fall make mistakes etc so nothing is unbeatable.... Well not usually lol

All the years I have been watching the festival I can only recall one novice chase horse that could have been claimed as near unbeatable and that was Sprinter.

Yes, of course stick to the plan, no one knows who the best 2m nov chaser is.

wellchief - thats different to the interview he gave on atr after the race - where did that interview come from?

Sportinglife mate

thnks wc

Why would Hendo avoid KV? Serge destroyed KV at Ascot last season!

since then wpm has been sprinkled with angel dust and njh has had a frontal lobotomy and been replaced by a stem cell clone

There's a very good reason why the arkle market is formed by hurdles form, and that's because 8 of the last 15 winners where either the top or second top rated hurdler - 6 were top.

People also need to remember that Mullins only ran Boston Bob in the AB so as to avoid Simonsig. It's entirely understandable that if you don't feel your horse can beat another that you then run it in a race which you perceive to be more winnable.

Trainers aren't in business to keep race goers happy - they are in business to win races and keep the owners happy.

If Douvan stays sound KV goes JLT but if something god forbid was to happen to douvan KV goes Arkle. That's what i take from what was said post race.

As for l'ami Serge and Hendo. He's almost certain to line up in the Arkle, I think Hendo knows that he is the horse most likely to be able to serve it up to Douvan and win though that is on speculation and i remember saying that about Simonsig in his novice hdl year when re=routed from Supreme to Neptune and bolting up

Tory, I get the hurdle stat, but my only issue is if people are taking 4/6 or 8/13 on Douvan on the basis of 6 out of the last 15 winners were the top rated hurdler.

I get those who took a speculative punt at the start of the year at 4/1 or 9/2, but I don't really think we've learnt anything about him or L'Ami Serge since, apart from they can jump when running well within themselves at long odds on, yet the price is a fraction of what you could have got.

At least Ar Mad, Vaniteux and GLV have shownn they could jump well at pace, or at least put in a big leap at the last when off the bridle for example.  As good as Douvan looks, I don't think he'll win it on the snaff, so a last fence tired jump may be encountered for the first time in the big race - same for L'Ami Serge.

I see where you're coming from WC, and I haven't actually backed anything in the race yet and may just sit it out like I did with UDS last year when I missed the prices.

My take is that Douvan is a far superior horse to anything else in the race. I'm quite sure where I stand on Ar Mad yet, but with both Vaniteux and GLV we know exactly where we stand - admirable horses who are well above average but not top class. If either win the Arkle then for me something will have to have gone wrong with either Douvan or L'ami Serge.

The race is lacking depth and that's why Douvan is the price he is. I am very taken with L'ami Serge to be honest and probably the play right now is him in the without Douvan market. I know hendo said he wasn't right at Cheltenham last year, but I don't think he's in the same league as Douvan. At 4/6 or 8/13 you are essentially backing Douvan to get round.

I really like Ar Mad but they don't seem confident of him going left handed to the same level! But after kempton they feel they have to give it a go and why not?! But it does slightly put me off backing him otherwise he looks a great eway in the race or in a without the fav market.

Although a beautiful jumper in the main L'ami Serge seems to take a little step to his left just before he takes off at some of his fences. This imo would be more pronounced in a faster run race. In the Arkle  Ar Mad , Douvan, Sizing John and indeed Vantieaux like to race prominent and even an early mistake could make it curtains for L'ami. It could be the Supreme all over again. Getting shuffled back down the pack early doors. In the JLT they will be going a stride or two slower so L'ami can get into a nice rhythm. He has already shown the trip is not an issue. He has already shown Killutagh Vic a clean pair of heels. Shaneshills jumping can hardly be described as bombproof. Why run him over 2m 3furlongs on bad ground yesterday only 13 days after his seasonal debut UNLESS the JLT is the plan now that Douvan looks just as good over fences if not better. They wanted to make sure he stays. Now they know he stays. They cant just turn around and say he'll not be running in the Arkle unless something happens to Douvan but I have a feeling that they are leaning towards the JLT now.

KV in danger of being a bit over rated now imo! Don't think he is up to Douvan's level.

I agree.    Blair fell in a hole up the run in today. Lord Scrongrel dogged it. KV done well to win and would have hosed up without the mistake obviously but I think Serge is still a better horse.

I think Shaneshill is a better horse as well!

I agree everyone is getting carried away with KV and not certain why and yes I also suspect Shaneshill may be better than him.

Nice fishing Delsie

If one considers the 'jumping' of Shaneshill and the 'possibility/probability' of L'Ami Serge (LS) joining the issue in the JLT - if so, LS will be a clear 'fav' (without a shadow of a doubt giving its class and jumping ability) - there is no value in the current price of KV at all; LS has also beaten KV easily in a 16f race last season.

So far, KV has been well placed by WM.

Shaeshill is being pigeon holed as a bad jumper by alot of people now because of one mistake at the second last in his previous race, which unsurprsingly affected him at the last as well. Prior to that he jumped impeccably on debut, and very well for the rest of his second run.

I think its being hugely over played.

KV made a mistake that 99 times out of 100 would have cost him the race yesterday, but that isnt even mentioned!

CCM

My apology, that was not the intention; I think my post was swayed by the price differences between Shaneshill and KV (which is no longer) and now the 'possibility' of the participation of L'Ami Serge.