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cyclops
07 Dec 15 13:34
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Date Joined: 11 Apr 02
| Topic/replies: 1,157 | Blogger: cyclops's blog
Gone out to 8 here, with not a penny waiting to back him.

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By:
MoonJago
When: 07 Dec 15 13:56
Id say target has changed to Ryanair
By:
duffy
When: 07 Dec 15 14:00
Can't see them changing the target without first finding out he doesn't stay, he's too good a horse for that.
By:
Can't Catch Me
When: 07 Dec 15 14:04
Paddy gone shortest on the Ryanair and longest on the GC which is normally a decent pointer as well.

Maybe after Djakadam winning so well, connections have decided he will be their GC horse?
By:
MoonJago
When: 07 Dec 15 14:06
Just think that Djakadam is gonna be Ricci's gold cup horse and maybe they dont want both taking each other on in the big one. Could be wrong but Powers have easied Vautour in the GC and shortened him for the Ryanair. They usually have a good line on the Mullins string
By:
timtin
When: 07 Dec 15 14:07
doesn't really matter if it stays 3m, GC has 2f uphill finish and Djakadam is a proven stayer who beat VL by almost the same distance at a short trip, both owned by RR, they'll try to win 2 instead of getting both beat in the same race. Ok if Vautour beats The Don at Christmas by 5 lengths then the GC bid is a certainty, but otherwise they will keep them separated and Ryanair is a pretty big race nowadays and won't be easy to win if Cue Card will be rerouted as well, perhaps even Simonsig..
By:
MoonJago
When: 07 Dec 15 14:07
Haha. My thoughts exactly.Grin
By:
Can't Catch Me
When: 07 Dec 15 14:09
Great minds MJ Grin

Makes Hills price of to win any race at 3/1 seem a decent bet. he's already shorter than that in the places for the Ryanair, and if he does switch to the GC, its a worse price, but at least you still have a runner.
By:
duffy
When: 07 Dec 15 14:16
Please don't run him in the hybrid stakes.Cry...not VautourCry
By:
Can't Catch Me
When: 07 Dec 15 14:19
Duffy. I got my fingers burnt with this last year as I couldnt believe they would swerve the Arkle to win (what I considered, the less prestigious) JLT with a horse as good as this. But they did Sad

Learnt my lesson then tbh. Rich Ricci will listen to whatever Mullins and Ruby tell him, and all they want is to have the most winners possible at the Festival. Neither have anything else in the Ryanair, and I think this will be a very easy argument for them to win, especially with Djakadam now firmly in the GC picture.
By:
cyclops
When: 07 Dec 15 14:30
Can't believe there would be any change of heart in the Mullins camp before the King George. If he were to win that, staying on strongly, the Gold Cup would still be his likely target.
Unless, of course, they're having a re-think on the King George?
By:
maelduin
When: 07 Dec 15 14:30
If Vautour runs admirably in the KC then there is no question of what race they target. The idea that RR would not want to have 2 decent chances of winning the GC is ridiculous.
By:
duffy
When: 07 Dec 15 14:32
CCM

You're probably right and we all know how Walsh simply wants a festival winner and if it's there for the taking then take it (mares hurdle), however I keep taking myself back to the immediate aftermath of the JLT where I am convinced Walsh was about to come out with some favourable comments with the feel he got from Vautour comparing to how he felt riding Kauto Star.

Certainly I've not seen Walsh as emotional since the days of Kauto and I just think that in this case he'd want to give this horse every chance to achieve greatness, be it over the longer trip or the queen mother itself....I'm now talking myself into taking the 10's for the CC as I don't think he'll stay.
By:
Can't Catch Me
When: 07 Dec 15 14:33
Its not ridiculous at all maelduin. This is how RR (and the Mullins camp operates).

I think thats more likely cyclops. Maybe worked a bit flat and they are rethinking the KG...
By:
Can't Catch Me
When: 07 Dec 15 14:34
Duffy. I thought the same after the Supreme though. There was no doubt in my mind they felt Vautour was better than Faugheen and Willie almsot said so... yet they left the latter to go and win the Champion Hurdle while Vautour won the frigging JLT!
By:
Can't Catch Me
When: 07 Dec 15 14:35
The only potential fly in the ointment is Vroum Vroum Mag I suppose. She could start fav for the Ryanair if that was to be her race and she was RR@s preferred runner.
By:
cyclops
When: 07 Dec 15 14:37
They seem very protective of Vroum Vroum, as with other of their mares. I hope they let her loose in a proper race sometime soon but I wouldn't bank on it.
By:
Can't Catch Me
When: 07 Dec 15 14:37
PS. This thread has really kick started the Cheltenham juices for me.... the first big 'what the f*ck is Mulling going to do' debate!
By:
Can't Catch Me
When: 07 Dec 15 14:38
Agreed cyclops. She might be saved for Fairyhouse at Easter and Punch maybe.
By:
HaylingBilly
When: 07 Dec 15 14:39
Unless it is clear from the King George Vautour does not stay then I cannot see RR doing an about face on his clear strategy to run Vautour in the Gold Cup. If he stays OK at Christmas I think they will run him in the Gold Cup along with Djakadam. Gives RR two great win chances and along with Don Poli gives Willie three great chances to win the Blue Riband Event that neither of them have ever won. They have always known Djakadam was a Gold Cup horse and yet they have been adamant from end of last season Vautour was a GC horse. I would say everything is going exactly to plan for them. So far so good.
By:
Can't Catch Me
When: 07 Dec 15 14:41
You may well be right HB... but how would you explain the drift then?

And I know there are still some who don't believe the PP prices have anything to do with anything, but their track record with Mullins runners at the Festival and their targets, is virtually faultless.
By:
MoonJago
When: 07 Dec 15 14:47
Ive mentioned on another thread that Vroum Vroum maybe targeted at the World hurdle.
By:
Can't Catch Me
When: 07 Dec 15 14:47
I just cant see WPM aiming his three best staying chasers at the same race, even if it is the Gold Cup.
By:
maelduin
When: 07 Dec 15 14:53
"Gives RR two great win chances and along with Don Poli gives Willie three great chances to win the Blue Riband Event that neither of them have ever won."

Exactly.

PP were 4/1 (shortest price) Vautour since September. Price now is more reflective of his chance to win. If anything PP have been behind the curve. imo
By:
cyclops
When: 07 Dec 15 14:56
Yes CCM, this is what intrigues me. Vautour hardly budged for the Gold Cup between 5 and 6 on here for months, ran his first race, with connections saying they were happy and that all was going to plan, and yet he's now around 8 with no-one wanting to go near him.
That's a big drift for no reason.
Walsh and Mullins have been so downbeat about Djakadam until yesterday's fine run and, while they've been adamant that Vautour is heading for the GC, he's only six, the opposition is fierce and they could well be having a re-think. Or, maybe, despite the front, they really were disappointed with him failing to put away Ptit Zig easily, in receipt of weight and are wondering whether he's as good as they thought?
By:
Can't Catch Me
When: 07 Dec 15 14:58
Behind the curve? He's been 4/1, 9/2 or 5/1 with everyone for a while, and still is. PP were shortest because they believed that was his target no doubt. And they've now gone 7/1. They haven't adjusted it to be more in line with everyone else. That's a significant move imo. And they haven't done it for nothing. I remember them doing this last season with Vautour in the Arkle. And there have been countless other examples.

Anyway, all about opinions.

Personally I will be gutted if he doesn't go for the GC, it was shaping up to be the best renewal in a long, long time.
By:
dej99
When: 07 Dec 15 15:19
PP are still shortest about Vautour winning the King George.  Surely if they are against Vautour for the Gold Cup then they should be best price for him to win the KG.  There's no doubt if he wins it, the Gold Cup at Cheltenham will be on the cards.  I would have thought the best bet would be to win both races which is 16-1 with PP. With a saver on to win any race at the festival in case he comes up short and goes for the Ryanair.
By:
maelduin
When: 07 Dec 15 15:24
PP know nothing and are just playing AP games. It's not like there would be any significant bets taken before the KG given his run at Ascot. It's great publicity for PP as you get people like us talking about them.

If this move happened in February then it's a different story.
By:
Can't Catch Me
When: 07 Dec 15 15:26
PP know nothing

You surely cant believe that....?
By:
HaylingBilly
When: 07 Dec 15 15:30
CCM - I admit the PP drift is slight cause for concern and I am certainly not in a position to explain it. Other than they recognise it is a much more open race with the good positive runs from DP and Djakadam over the weekend and it is their job to encourage us to bet with them.

dej99 - that is a decent defensive strategy. Thanks for highlighting.
By:
maelduin
When: 07 Dec 15 15:40
The chances of RR, WPM and Ruby sitting down to discuss Vautours target pre-KG is miniscule. So in regard to the recent Vautour move, yes i believe they know nothing. 

As you mentioned PP definitely should be watched as they clearly know more then most when it comes to WPM. GL
By:
delsie777
When: 07 Dec 15 17:06
Do you honestly think they have finalised running plans in mid December?  Get used to the uncertainty - they will still have you guessing the week before the Festival. PP are masters of manipulating the antepost markets, provoking reaction and over-reaction left, right and centre. They will have every base covered and will be playing up the fact that so many people believe they have an in at the stable - they do - but it's not always right. The Vautour position is purely a reaction to Djakadam running a good race. To think that Ruby jumped off him and said 'forget Vautour' is highly unlikely. The only certainty is that PP will have the best balanced book come March. If you are a Vautour supporter, I shouldn't tear up your ticket yet - remember it's Djakadam's second attempt - and unless you're Kauto Star, that means the stats are against him winning a Gold Cup regardless of age.
By:
mincer11
When: 07 Dec 15 17:29
The mind boggles when it comes to people betting on horses and reading this and that on here about Peowers and their in at the stable.
Anybody with a brain in their head would know that Vautour has to be at least 8/1 to win the Gold Cup, and anyone who is taking that price, win or lose needs help.
You only have to look at it realistically, can Vautour win the Gold Cup if he doesnt win the King George, the answer is an empphatic no. Now i know you will have some imbecile saying what if he falls at the last when 20 clear, but given normal circumstances he will not win the Gold cup if he doesnt win at kempton. Can Don Cossack win at Cheltenham if he gets beaten in Kempton, i would say quite possibly, depending on the manner of his defeat of course.
So Vautour is 3/1 mimimum to win in kempton, and if he wins there hes not going to be under 5/4 to win the Gold Cup, with the likes of Djakadam, Don Poli, Road To riches, Smad place, Sir Des Champs and a few others to contend with.
Its a no brainer that he has to be at least 8/1 to win the Gold Cup, thats what Peowers know, the same as anybody with a brain cell should know.
By:
duffy
When: 07 Dec 15 17:37
Could this particular imbecile suggest that his jumping out to the left could prevent his winning at Kempton even if in fact he stays the trip and beyond. It could be this issue that may have the stable concerned re: his participation in the race, if indeed they are concerned.

That said I don't think he'll stay the GC trip and worry about the jumping out to the left, but my initial point is a possible.
By:
mincer11
When: 07 Dec 15 17:43
There is no way he will miss the King George unless he isnt right, jumping left or right will not be an issue.
Maybe he wont win the King George, i actually think he will and the only conceivable danger is Don, the rest do not count.
Whether he wins the Gold cup ia a different matter altogether.
By:
dj876
When: 07 Dec 15 18:01
Do you think evens on the dutch on Vauotur/Don is close to a moral mincer11 or too short with the dangers of ante-post? (only "avail" with English books)

Surely WPM won't want to run Don Poli and Djackadam in the lexus against each other. He will want to leave one of them to take Christmas off but they both had their seasonal debuts on the same w/e but Giggy are no walkovers.

I would make DC slight favourite for the KG, Vautour is going to have to be an absolute freak to have the stamina to stay the Gold Cup trip with the pace he shows.

Vautour would be a short price to win the Ryanair and also a lot shorter than 8/1 to win the QM, it will end up suiting connections to divert from the GC.

Don Poli and in my personal opinion to a lesser extent Djackadam look ideal candidates for the GC but if Vautour wins the KG, Willie's hand might then almost be forced.

If Vautour wins the KG,he's still far from a certain runner in the GC. Willie/Ruby wants as many winners as possible and can be very persuasive especially when Ricci has Djak.
By:
mincer11
When: 07 Dec 15 18:52
Dj876, to answer your first question i do think its a straight shootout on boxing day. My personal opinion for what its worth is that Vautour is the one to beat,but i wouldnt stop anybody backing Don Cossack. Rather than dutching them, i have already saved on Don last week at 7/2, and was going to unload at 3/1 or so on the other one. Will be gobsmacked if both of them are beaten, and looking at the betting right now, a single figure field is likely with about 5 no hopers. At 3/1 and 7/2, it represents a big play for me, and im going Vautour over Don although the latter is a certainty to be ist or second whereas Vautour isnt, as stamina is unproven and maybe going this way may not see him at his peak, and also his poor run last Xmas at Leopardstown is another minor worry.
Saying that im willing to take my chances at 3/1 , and i can see him being in front a long way out and jumping them into submission. I have a feeling he will be ridden as if stamina is not an issue, and in my eyes it wont be either.
As for missing the Gold Cup, well if he happens to win at Kempton then theres no way he wont run in the Gold cup, no matter what they have running in it. The Gold Cup is the holy grail it seems, with the Ryanair being regarded as a race for horses falling between 2 stools, and having no way the appeal of the big one. Mullins has never won the Gold Cup and neither has Ricci, so if they have 2 good enough to run, then run they will.
By:
dj876
When: 07 Dec 15 19:04
Thanks mincer11.

Aye 9/4-5/2 on which ever you fancy in the King George with total stakes returned if the other one obliges isn't a bad way of playing it.

Don Poli should be beating Many Clouds getting 5lbs but I thought it was an impressive performance for seasonal debut on a track that wouldn't suit as much as Cheltenham. Safe enough to draw a line through Punchestown at the end of last season now.

Don Poli obviously looks more like your traditional GC horse than Vautour who may well be a freak. That RSA performance (rsa form not really working out though) was a bit special,he was toying with the opposition after his usual flat spot.

Any opinion on what you think WPM will run in the Lexus? He surely won't want them killing each other for the detriment of the rest of the season.
By:
mincer11
When: 07 Dec 15 19:17
Don Poli is very much ground dependent i would think myself, softish ground is definitely a help to his cause. Very dangerous horse in any race where the emphasis is on stamina, so the weather on the day in particular is going to be a huge factor for him. Im not sure his form stacks up though, and it looks like a vintage year so this flat spot that you quite rightly refer to may well be punished by the likes of Coneygree, Road To Riches etc going hard from the start. Saying that if hes in contention turning in then hes the most likely winner no matter whats around him.
Vautour is a very speedy horse and the way the Gold cup will be ran, he will need to stay 3 and a half miles. He may well do that but it has to be a big worry.
As for the Lexus, i have no idea, maybe Mullins will keep Poli and Djakadam apart, and as Gigginstown already have Road to riches, then maybe Don Poli may be rerouted to Cheltenham at the end of January, thats only an educated guess on my part and i have no inside knowledge whatsoever.
By:
Arklearkle
When: 07 Dec 15 20:12
Powers know nothing because there is nothing to know at this stage. Despite all that is said on here every year it has not been that difficult to work out where WM runs his horses.
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