Cheltenham Festival
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05 Dec 15
22:46
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31 Jul 03
i very rarely post. many many times i have come close. the reason i tend not to as i never really know whether people are just winding each other up or genuinely believe the things they write. only they know i guess. So many times i have heard a horse criticised or questioned regarding the strength of horses it has beaten. We are (fingers crossed) a few months away from an epic gold cup and yet i have already read from recent posts that the following horses have not beaten anything of note...... Vautour, Cue Card, Don Cossack and i am sure there are others so i thought i would list the horses that have finished runner up to the contenders.... makes interesting reading considering some of the horses i have NOT seen this accusation aimed at.
Coneygree (seventh sky, Djakadam, Houblon des obeux, warden hill, dell arca, Aerial, bondage, corrin wood, donnaceys hill) djak good rest?????????
Djakadam (my murphy , bright new dawn, si cetait vrai, courage, ibsen) -
Interesting that coneygrees best (djakadam) has BND as his best........
maybe this years GC wasnt as good as we thought (can hear you all shouting already)
Don Poli (many clouds, southfield theatre, apache stronghold, wounded warrior, thomas crapper, goonyella, kerrieonvic) - in the context of some of others not a bad list
Smad Place (theatre guide, fingal bay, sam winner, ardkilly witness hang on is this a welsh national line up, shoreacres, unaccompanied, jump city, dolatulu - really!!!!!!!
Vautour (ptit zig, apache stronghold, aladdins cave, clarcam, josses hill, the tullow tank, western boy, lieutenant colonel) some ok/nice horses but nothing that really grabs you
Road to Riches (Bright new dawn, on his own, rocky creek, burn and turn, mallowney, foxrock, dushrembrandt, pride of the parish, gold bullet, monbeg - few gooduns but again nothing WOW (GC third !!!!!) just saying
Don Cossack (rocky creek, roi du mee, djakadam, cue card, texas jack, boston bob,wonderful charm, loosen my load, carlingford lough, sizing gold, dressedtothenines, elsie, rory o moore, carraig mille) - shares Djak with coneygree but supporting cast much better
The much maliigned Cue Card - (Silviniaco Conti, Dynaste x 2, First lieutenant, captain chris, edgardo sol, for non stop, michael flips, dunravern storm, dear sam, al ferof, caught by witness (king george winner, grade 1 winners, 4 festival winners)
firstly CC,s list is the best imo, with DC up there and some of these that have not been questioned are not great - dont let the facts get in the way of a good story right
ok take tongue out of cheek now -of course there are holes in my post big enough to drive a bus through, but there are a few points i guess 1) CC deserves a lot more respect than he gets imo (particularly being saddled with JT most of his life) - he has beaten good horses and possibly a better list than any other GC contender and 2) some of the horses that earn great respect perhaps need to prove themselves a little more than we think.
BTW i love Coneygree and i rather like Djakadam too and i am not sure CC will stay and maybe Cheltenham isnt Don Cossacks best track but lets be fair, we can favour one horse without knocking another - i am actually a fan of every one of these contenders
Coneygree (seventh sky, Djakadam, Houblon des obeux, warden hill, dell arca, Aerial, bondage, corrin wood, donnaceys hill) djak good rest?????????
Djakadam (my murphy , bright new dawn, si cetait vrai, courage, ibsen) -
Interesting that coneygrees best (djakadam) has BND as his best........
maybe this years GC wasnt as good as we thought (can hear you all shouting already)
Don Poli (many clouds, southfield theatre, apache stronghold, wounded warrior, thomas crapper, goonyella, kerrieonvic) - in the context of some of others not a bad list
Smad Place (theatre guide, fingal bay, sam winner, ardkilly witness hang on is this a welsh national line up, shoreacres, unaccompanied, jump city, dolatulu - really!!!!!!!
Vautour (ptit zig, apache stronghold, aladdins cave, clarcam, josses hill, the tullow tank, western boy, lieutenant colonel) some ok/nice horses but nothing that really grabs you
Road to Riches (Bright new dawn, on his own, rocky creek, burn and turn, mallowney, foxrock, dushrembrandt, pride of the parish, gold bullet, monbeg - few gooduns but again nothing WOW (GC third !!!!!) just saying
Don Cossack (rocky creek, roi du mee, djakadam, cue card, texas jack, boston bob,wonderful charm, loosen my load, carlingford lough, sizing gold, dressedtothenines, elsie, rory o moore, carraig mille) - shares Djak with coneygree but supporting cast much better
The much maliigned Cue Card - (Silviniaco Conti, Dynaste x 2, First lieutenant, captain chris, edgardo sol, for non stop, michael flips, dunravern storm, dear sam, al ferof, caught by witness (king george winner, grade 1 winners, 4 festival winners)
firstly CC,s list is the best imo, with DC up there and some of these that have not been questioned are not great - dont let the facts get in the way of a good story right
ok take tongue out of cheek now -of course there are holes in my post big enough to drive a bus through, but there are a few points i guess 1) CC deserves a lot more respect than he gets imo (particularly being saddled with JT most of his life) - he has beaten good horses and possibly a better list than any other GC contender and 2) some of the horses that earn great respect perhaps need to prove themselves a little more than we think.
BTW i love Coneygree and i rather like Djakadam too and i am not sure CC will stay and maybe Cheltenham isnt Don Cossacks best track but lets be fair, we can favour one horse without knocking another - i am actually a fan of every one of these contenders
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intresting post and a different way of looking at it.
You make fair points about people knocking Horses when they favour/have backed others....it's a habit on this forum. Personally when I look at a race like the Gold cup I do look at form I think relates to horses that ..I think or have proved ..are Gold cup types......course and staying ability required plus of course the class required. Interesting and a refreshingly different way of looking at things. With Cue Card, I have questioned the type of horses he has form with,Cont and Dynaste and First Lieutenant probably the best he has form with and I don't think any are a guide to his Gold Cup winning chance. That is probably more like down to how he is on the day as a mate of mine pointed out to me after his latest romp at haydock,and I must admit has got me interested in CC now,cos when he has been in rude health (as his trainer put it) he has been very good.will he stay?not sure,but I do think looking at the horses he's run against is maybe not the way to go when accessing his chances. So he has course form,we know that,he has the class,and staying ability?? I think he has shown enough to suggest he just could stay ok. With regards the Gold cup last March,I am going on mu gut feeling and visual impression that it was a darn good one,and I fancy all the top 3 to have big chances this time,maybe Holywell as well if ground is decent. If I am wrong,and one of the Dons ,Vautour,Xue Card or someone else proves better than them....fair enough,I happen to think it's possible,but not likely. |
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Meant to say as well..........I echo your last comments and we should all relish everyone of the contenders,as this just could be the best Gold Cup we have ever had. We should be respecting all of them and discuss the merits etc without too much knocking,cos it's clear to me that none of them deserve that,they all look to have chances based on what they respectively have shown thus far.
I guess it really depends on ones personal way of trying to work the race out. Sure that can be done by not having to resort to knocking a horse. |
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Meant to say as well..........I echo your last comments and we should all relish everyone of the contenders,as this just could be the best Gold Cup we have ever had. We should be respecting all of them and discuss the merits etc without too much knocking,cos it's clear to me that none of them deserve that,they all look to have chances based on what they respectively have shown thus far.
I guess it really depends on ones personal way of trying to work the race out. Sure that can be done by not having to resort to knocking a horse. |
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my post was not about who i think will win the gold cup or about cue card, it was about the way people claim to be using facts when they dismiss a horse when in fact they are using bias, gut feeling as you put it, emotion e.t.c. horse racing imo is not pure science but nor is it a pure art form and my experience is so much rubbish is stated as fact when it is just opinion. For me there are a number of possible winners of the gold cup next year and i am ok admitting they i havent got a clue who will win. On good ground i can see Cue Card and Road to Riches and Vautour running huge races, if it becomes gruelling (either ground or way race is run) i dont think anything can or will stay better than Don Poli.if there is soft in the description and his preparation is ok Coneygree can force others into mistakes and win again. If Don Cossack acts around Cheltenham and is as good left handed he could be a superstar. Smad Place ... no way for me - place perhaps. The point is they all have 'ifs' they are all very good horses and can win if things fall into place on the day so at the moment it comes down to where value lies today and the only two horses whose price underestimates their chance of winning imo is Road to Riches and Cue Card. Do i think they are the likeliest winners no but the rest are far too short recognising they all have 'ifs'. The likeliest winner is the one with the unlikliest 'if' i.e Don Poli i.e. almost certain to be a true run race but a) too short, b)he is not my favourite horse (bias).
whatever wins unless he wins by many lengths will probably have had more things go his way either on the day or between now and then than others. it may not mean he is a better horse merely better on the day on under the conditions and on a different day under different conditions we may have had a different winner that is what is so great about horse racing. what separates horse racing from football and fans of each is that racing fans can like, respect and appreciate more than one horse and we dont have to slag off any horse that we havent backed and i have to say reading through this forum i see behaviour from some closer to football fans than i would see from racing fans at a track for example. btw get the holywell thing probably other horse where price slightly underestimates chance. |
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You should post more often, interesting thoughts. Unfortunately, objectivity disappears once a bet has been struck or an opinion has been stated.
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Interesting post, a pretty selective list of horses that Coneygree has beaten.
Forgot Silviniaco Conti, Many Clouds, Smad Place, Holywell, Bobs Worth, Road To Riches. |
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thanks GI MAC .. the most ironic thing is the way imo to be a good gambler over a sustained period is to be smart enough to know you are not smart enough to know what will win. to recognise and be humble enough to know you will be wrong far more often than right and realise that the main opinion that you need to be right is the one of VALUE and not the one of who will win. in other words complete and pure objectivity which is so difficult in such an emotional sport. And you are 100% right once that bet is placed we lose all objectivity and become bigots (not your words - mine)
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ibrahima - please read my post again i didnt say beaten i said runner up to no selectivity at all just fact
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if i had meant beaten every horse would have a different list not just coneygree - i think you have proven my point brilliantly
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millions sophie - nice balance and perception in OP.
IS - you walked straight in to that ! Slam Dunk. Made me laugh so much I nearly choked on my cornflakes.... |
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miltons - apologies. Spellcheck !!!
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is this the new trend? to say Don Cossack doesn't handle Cheltenham? Anyone who watched his race in the Ryanair with his own eyes and arrives to that conclusion I think needs a new pair of eyes. As for the RSA 2 years ago, anyone can make a mistake, he was traveling the best at that time. I guess its the same as last year with Faugheen, when you have a horse well above anything around people try to find anything to knock them. The problem of course is that Don Cossack price is not an issue like it was with Faugheen's, so why knock the Don with such a ridiculous statement that he doesn't handles Chelt? I could take the criticism of end of season form not worth much, I can take the maybe he won't stay 3m2f, but doesn't handles Chelt?? Jesus...
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"......when you have a horse well above anything around people try to find anythingfini to knock them."
I don't think people crabbing his course form is finding anything as you put it. DC is 0/2 at the festival (fact  ), and as you know course form, and in particular festival form is a huge advantage. Your obviously keen to forgive him those two runs, fair enough, but those who look upon his course form as a negative have every reason to think that way. |
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Don't think their is anything wrong with having a gut feeling about a race,as I have with the last Gold cup,as long as it does not cloud judgement and use it to dismiss others that did not run in it...after all those could perform better in the conditions on the day.
Bias on the other hand is just plain daft and is really used by people who are on here for a wind up and to upset those that just want a proper and reasoned discussion. This thread has the potential to do a lot of good in that respect,be nice to keep it near the top. We just could have a real good informative chat,without the usual nonsense. The race itself........I think the King George could be fairly crucial,particularly as the current fav for the GC could end up a non runner after it,depending on how he stays. We could be looking at a different market after the KG. we could also see Vautour shortening if he's impressive. ground as always will be crucial,the way the race is run as well,and as MS says......which horse/horses are best suited to conditions on the day and things falling into place on the day. Fascinating race as is the build up to it. . |
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timtin - is this what you got from my post - seriously - you are totally misunderstanding my post - i am not saying don cossack doesnt handle cheltenham i am merely reporting what i have read others post on here. on other threads i have read people state there are question marks about whether he acts around cheltenham and whether he is better going right handed. whether i agree or not is not the point, the point is people state similar things like they are facts when they are opinions and often ones based on gut feeling, bias or worse still because they have backed something else. For what its worth i think Don Cossack is a brilliant horse and i will continue to think this even if cheltenham isnt his favourite track - there is more to racing than cheltenham (though i absolutely love it) and there is more to 3m chasing than the gold cup and i would like nothing more than every horse to turn up on the day and run to its absolute best.
your opinion re Don Cossack is clear and you are entitled to it, i think smashing into the opinions of others the way you have is exactly the kind of football fan attitude i dislike - for what its worth i really hope you are right because i backed him ap a long time ago but just because i love the horse and have a financial interest does not cloud me to the possibility (however small) that he may not like cheltenham quite as much as other tracks nor does it give me the right to smash into people that believe cheltenham may not suit him - if they dont however i would prefer them to admit the real reason why they have this view (this being an adjective for other similar situations) |
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who has said DC does not handle Cheltenham....as fact?
It's possible he could not win the Gold Cup because he does not handle Cheltenham as well as others,and it's also possible that the reason he did not win there so far is the course.Will say though that As far as the Ryanair is concerned,Uxizandre would have beaten most horses around on that performance,and it's probably too short for DC. Personally I think the jury's out on DC and Cheltenham. Put it this way,for me I would not use the course as a reason not to back him. |
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I quickly realised that if you say anthing remotely negative about Don Cossack or Faugheen, Timtin gets quite upset!
It'll be a fascinating Gold Cup; I've nailed my colours to Cue Card (14's) and Road to Riches (40's), and I probably won't bck anything else. In such a competitve race, I'd want double figure odds for whoever I backed, keep the stakes small and just enjoy the race. I'm relying on decent ground for either of them to have a good chance, but then that will play into the hands of some of the others too. I think whoever wins the King George and Lexus will be quite a bit shorter than they are now, so the market will be quite a bit different in January compared to now. |
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timtin - is this what you got from my post - seriously - you are totally misunderstanding my post - i am not saying don cossack doesnt handle cheltenham i am merely reporting what i have read others post on here.
Exactly, the new trendy stuff to replicate, I'll look forward to hearing it more and more until the festival arrives. |
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the problem is GI MAC that people are very selective/inconsistent about when they use certain facts such as course form - and my experience is that the inconsistency is driven by either bias/financial or deliberately being obnoxious. in other words if it suits their opinion they site something like course form and when it doesnt they ignore it or defend it. Don Cossack fans/bettors will defend it detractors or bettors of opposition will make a big thing of it - mutliply this a million times for different races and different horses and so on
Personally with Don Cossack i simply do not feel there is enough evidence either way. It is possible his ryanair performance and fall were track related bit it is equally possible that a fall can happen anywhere no horse is perfect and the ryanair was other factors (a little trouble in running, mistake e.t.c.). What is wrong with being objective and saying i dont know - i love the horse , i understand why people fancy him and i also understand why people dont - great thats horse racing |
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timtin - yes but why did you put this on my thread
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wellchief, i said I accept any critic of Don as long as it doesn't involve the lazy reading of course form and saying it means he doesn't handle it.
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should say this thread - clearly not mine
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indeed it is Milton.
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tt - highest rated horse in training in UK&I. Two runs at Cheltenham. Zero wins. He may well handle the track but it sure aint his favourite. I think he handles it OK but it is not to his benefit whereas his main market rivals could claim to handle it better - Coneygree is 3/4, Don Poli is 2/2, Vautour is 2/2. My view, DC is a great horse, but net net the Cheltenham track is not a positive for DC but it could be a positive for the other three. Just one factor in making a selection. Plenty of other positives for DC of course. But we are talking about handling Cheltenham. Food for thought. If they all show up it is going to be a great race. FWIW my selection is Don Poli. I think he has all the attributes for a Gold Cup winning horse. And I am so confident I think he could be the first back to back winner since Best Mate. Now there's a bold claim.
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well chief - got rtr at 40 too but missed cue card - i am soooo angry with myself - still backable of course but still make mistakes after 35 years of gambling quite pathetic really
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I suppose Don Cossack could be a bit like Kauto Star in that respect. Have the ability to win the Gold Cup, despite others in the lineup preferring Cheltenham as a track.
If the Gold Cup was run at Kempton or Haydock, Kauto would have won twice as many Gold Cups, but it was his raw ability that won him two at Cheltenham. Another example is Hurricane Fly - had the ability to win two Champion Hurdles, despite the course. Both acted around Cheltenham, but preferred other courses; maybe the Don could be in that category after March?? |
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good point wellchief - i actually think the idealist in me would like a horse to win despite not having all ducks in a row - thats one sign of a true champion as opposed to winning because he had more in his favour. I like the idea of one horse being able to win left or right handed, good ground or heavy, kempton or cheltenham true pace or not - the reality is this is very unlikely because this all rounder would have to be better than at least one extremely good horse that has everything near perfect on the day - the one horse for me that still has this possibility today is Don Cossack though i think it unlikely - but it is possible - realistically the winner of the gold cup will not necessarily be the best horse but the horse that ticks most boxes on the day - reluctantly if you put a gun to my head today thats probably Don Poli and i imagine myself after the race saying this is a perfect gold cup horse but imo not the best horse
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Buddeliea - who has said DC does not handle Cheltenham....as fact?
my point is people state opinions as if they were facts - its the language and tone- facts in horse racing are mainly data most of the rest is opinion Don Cossack 0-2 at cheltenham is a fact, Don Cossack not handling cheltenham is an opinion using data to support but still an opinion - however often (and this is made up just for example sake) people will say something like Don Cossacks worst two performances have been at cheltenham so he clearly doesnt handle the track - this is an opinion worded like a fact - thats the kind of thing i mean and its the kind of statement that is imo often driven by bias, financial gain or deliberately to wind up |
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Don Cossack runs at Chelt: in first he fell midrace(any horse can make a mistake, it doesn't mean ti doesn't handle that course) when travelling really well and second run he got badly hampered 2-3 times and still stayed on for 3rd. He handles Cheltenham for me.
Speaking of `what he beat` I fancy Ptit Zig to get found out today and what will that say about Vautour? my bet is on Pepite Rose at 11/2 fwiw |
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I understand your point MS, my question was aimed at Timtin who seemed to be saying that someone on this thread said DC does not act at Cheltenham. I could not find that anywhere on this thread that quoted that. People saying it a a possibility maybe,but not in a factual way.
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budd
haven't read all the posts but when you said in your first post that knocking horses you don't fancy is a habit on this forum I'd actually say that it is actually human nature, that type of thing happens in all situations generally in life. |
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In fact we shouldn't look at it as knocking because what we are actually doing, is, rightly or wrongly simply pointing out the reasons we haven't backed that particular horse, it's a non story.
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But do we have to actually knock horses to justify backing horses Duffy?
By all means give reasons for backing horses and not backing them,but knocking horses?? Which some do quiet strongly at times. Maybe we should not look at it as knocking,but that can be a tad difficult with some things I have read on here over the years. |
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Can you give an example of knocking?, I can understand it if someone was saying all manner of horrific things about the horse, but in general it is aimed at the horse's ability or capability in that persons opinion.
By definition if you haven't backed the horse those reasons are present. I've just put on another thread that in a GC I think that DP will switch himself off at some point and leave himself too much to do, here I am probably questioning his ability to you can call it knocking, but to me it's a credible point so can't be knocking. |
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questioning his ability to keep his mind on the job throughout.....that should say.
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That's a reasoned opinion not to back him.
You are not saying he's no chance because of ....blah blah. You saying you have never read anything like that on this forum ? |
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Perhaps I have in fairness but I suppose it goes in one ear and out the other, I don't take it personally or I don't get offended by it as such, not criticising anyone who does mind you...but even in the cases of people who say such and such has no chance blah blah blah, there will usually still be the genuine questions behind the bluster, it's just that some people are more that way inclined....Chapman would be one of those people for example, they want to be "out there" if you like when they have an opinion.
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duffy - i mentioned knocking in my opening thread - i do not mean opinions where reasons are given (even if i do not agree) - i mean where criticism lacks objectivity for example where a horse is criticised essentially for not being perfect and yet another imperfect horse is given a free pass for whatever reason (most commonly i believe bias, financial attachment, desire to wind up, stir things up, be controversial e.t.c.).I assume people like forums because they are in principle a great vehicle for objective and stimulating debate. Once objectivity stops becoming a prerequisite there is very little left other than people stubbornly sticking to their viewpoints irrespective of how many salient points others make and while i do not post often i have read much and see this over and over and over.
I mention Cue Card in my thread as an example as i feel he is a horse that people often lack objectivity about. People that are not a fan of the horse use his bad runs as evidence and tend to ignore the good stuff or if not ignore react with great scepticism or defensiveness (he beat a poor SC,winning at haydock on that s*** track means nothing, i cant believe he is suddenly a new horse just coz he had an op and so on - this is a lack of objectivity in my view. An objective view would be something like this if he turns up on an off day he has no chance but if he turns up on one of his going (high 170 rpr days) he is a danger to all. Fair comment whether i like the horse or not To highlight objectivity (or lack of it)is precisely why i used the 'whats he beat' theme (in reference to next years gold cup contenders) because the irony is there for all to see in that the horses that have been criticised for this have generally beaten better or at least as good horses as those that have not been criticised or have been favoured by those criticising. I for one would love it if we held each other to a higher standard of objectivity and perhaps others feel the same. Also Its interesting that knocking goes in one ear and out the other and yet criticising knocking has grabbed your attention. |