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Afternoon all- long time reader, first time poster. Firstly thanks to everyone for his or her knowledge/fancies/discussions over the past few years, you have provided me with a great read over a coffee at work!
Right, here is a little theory I have about Mullins, Ricci & the World Hurdle (WH)
Annie Power, is in my opinion, undisputedly the best WPM stable chance at winning the WH. However I get the feeling she will go and avenge last year in the Mares this year before moving to the WH next year and becoming Ricci’s ‘long term’ WH hope. This is assumed Limini is as good as hoped in the new mares novice race and then can to step to become Ricci mares race horse next year.
So that leaves the question who will be Mullins chance in the world this year?
Patrick Mullins has come out and said that they rode Nichols Canyon wrong in the Neptune last year and could be dropped back in trip to utilize his speed from his flat pedigree. So I am assuming that he could be campaigned towards the champion hurdle over 2. Briar Hill hasn’t been the same since falling badly, Black Hercules is a chaser through and through, Shaneshill looks to be going novice chasing as do all the Gigginstown boys (Tell us More, Outlander, Mckinley, Roi Des Francs). So what candidates are left?
How about Arctic Fire (16-1). I cant see any Mullins despite different owners running Faugheen vs Nichols Canyon vs Arctic in the champion hurdle. So which one goes? Like I mentioned I suspicion that NC will be campaigned towards the Champion just on pedigree & last year. But I personally feel that AF is much more suited to stepping up to 3m than anyone else. He was galloping all over Jezki (who if fit would surely be a single figure price for the world) at Aintree until he fell. He always puts his best work in at the end of the race. Personally after winning over 2m4 on Sunday and his run at Aintree, he looks a staying hurdler to me all day.
Champion Hurdle- Faugheen & Nichols Canyon
Mares Race- Annie Power
Mares Novice Race- Limini
World Hurdle- Arctic Fire
Just a thought
Right, here is a little theory I have about Mullins, Ricci & the World Hurdle (WH)
Annie Power, is in my opinion, undisputedly the best WPM stable chance at winning the WH. However I get the feeling she will go and avenge last year in the Mares this year before moving to the WH next year and becoming Ricci’s ‘long term’ WH hope. This is assumed Limini is as good as hoped in the new mares novice race and then can to step to become Ricci mares race horse next year.
So that leaves the question who will be Mullins chance in the world this year?
Patrick Mullins has come out and said that they rode Nichols Canyon wrong in the Neptune last year and could be dropped back in trip to utilize his speed from his flat pedigree. So I am assuming that he could be campaigned towards the champion hurdle over 2. Briar Hill hasn’t been the same since falling badly, Black Hercules is a chaser through and through, Shaneshill looks to be going novice chasing as do all the Gigginstown boys (Tell us More, Outlander, Mckinley, Roi Des Francs). So what candidates are left?
How about Arctic Fire (16-1). I cant see any Mullins despite different owners running Faugheen vs Nichols Canyon vs Arctic in the champion hurdle. So which one goes? Like I mentioned I suspicion that NC will be campaigned towards the Champion just on pedigree & last year. But I personally feel that AF is much more suited to stepping up to 3m than anyone else. He was galloping all over Jezki (who if fit would surely be a single figure price for the world) at Aintree until he fell. He always puts his best work in at the end of the race. Personally after winning over 2m4 on Sunday and his run at Aintree, he looks a staying hurdler to me all day.
Champion Hurdle- Faugheen & Nichols Canyon
Mares Race- Annie Power
Mares Novice Race- Limini
World Hurdle- Arctic Fire
Just a thought
Show More
**Sorry mistypes**
How about Arctic Fire (16-1). I cant see any way Mullins despite different owners runs Faugheen vs Nichols Canyon vs Arctic in the champion hurdle. So which one goes? Like I mentioned I have a suspicion that NC will be campaigned towards the Champion just on pedigree & last year. But I personally feel that AF is much more suited to stepping up to 3m than anyone else. He was galloping all over Jezki (who if fit would surely be a single figure price for the world) at Aintree until he fell. He always puts his best work in at the end of the race. Personally after winning over 2m4 on Sunday and his run at Aintree, he looks a staying hurdler to me all day.
How about Arctic Fire (16-1). I cant see any way Mullins despite different owners runs Faugheen vs Nichols Canyon vs Arctic in the champion hurdle. So which one goes? Like I mentioned I have a suspicion that NC will be campaigned towards the Champion just on pedigree & last year. But I personally feel that AF is much more suited to stepping up to 3m than anyone else. He was galloping all over Jezki (who if fit would surely be a single figure price for the world) at Aintree until he fell. He always puts his best work in at the end of the race. Personally after winning over 2m4 on Sunday and his run at Aintree, he looks a staying hurdler to me all day.
Artic Fire's strength is his speed. He has an excellent change of gear.
He won't stay the 3 mile trip at Cheltenham. He'd be better off stepping down to 2 miles and picking up place money.
He won't stay the 3 mile trip at Cheltenham. He'd be better off stepping down to 2 miles and picking up place money.
My gut feeling leans towards him not getting home over 3 miles at Cheltenham. For me the decision would be an easy one. The mares is a nothing race. Annie stayed perfectly well when beaten by More Of That in the World Hurdle despite not settling. She just ran in to a very good horse. World Hurdle every time.
Good first post JB, although I too think AF will be in the Champion.
He held off Monksland well the other day, but if it wasn't for the final slight mistake by Monksland, I think he would have won that by a length or so. Also, I think Aintree over 2m4 is much more of a speed test than 3m at Cheltenham. You've had ones in the past like Oscar Whisky, Thousand Stars, Rock on Ruby etc who have all ran crackers at Aintree but didn't truly stay 3m at Cheltenham, and I think Arctic Fire would be added to that list.
I think they'll run Annie in the Mares (when she should be JLT this year then Gold Cup next year).
That for me leaves Nichols Canyon in the World. Trying to second guess Willie a week before the festival is hard enough though, let alone 4 months before!!!
He held off Monksland well the other day, but if it wasn't for the final slight mistake by Monksland, I think he would have won that by a length or so. Also, I think Aintree over 2m4 is much more of a speed test than 3m at Cheltenham. You've had ones in the past like Oscar Whisky, Thousand Stars, Rock on Ruby etc who have all ran crackers at Aintree but didn't truly stay 3m at Cheltenham, and I think Arctic Fire would be added to that list.
I think they'll run Annie in the Mares (when she should be JLT this year then Gold Cup next year).
That for me leaves Nichols Canyon in the World. Trying to second guess Willie a week before the festival is hard enough though, let alone 4 months before!!!
Im sure I've heard wylie mention the world hurdle for Nichols Canyon.
Mullins camp have also mentioned Clondaw Court for the world hurdle providing they can get him racing.
If they can resist mothballing his hurdle mark, which at somewhere between 138 and 145 will be a very hard thing to do admittedly, I would have thought Max Dynamite has some potential as a staying hurdler.
This race Might be going to the other mullins. With martello tower. World hurdle the confirmed target today and 20/1 set to look huge in march Imo. With many in the betting set to come out.
Agree about Maertello Tower.
By the way, have I missed something about Milsean? 2nd in the the Albert Bartlett. Not mentioned in the opening post and can't find anything online about him. Anyone know if he's hurdling/chasing this season?
By the way, have I missed something about Milsean? 2nd in the the Albert Bartlett. Not mentioned in the opening post and can't find anything online about him. Anyone know if he's hurdling/chasing this season?
Interested in Clondaw Court if taking up entry in Hatton Grace? Main bet would be Whisper at present though.
Whisper has to be mine also , bad prep for the world last season . Hendo said it came a week too soon
Hopefully turns up at Newbury Saturday against Cole Harden.
Artic Fire goes hattons on Sunday . Money's down for Whisper on Saturday will be interesting for the yr ahead. Hopefully better prep this year not ideal to jump fences then revert to hurdles for the festival running once in the season before it .
Clondaw Court which Patrick Mullins mentioned as potentially their World Hurdle horse if he can stay sound, also entered in the Hatton's Grace on Sunday.
That was mighty impressive by Arctic Fire. With Nichols Canyon certainly going to the Champion hurdle now. Arctic Fire in the world? 16-1 looking nice now
Nov 29, 2015 -- 1:50PM, Jb23 wrote:
That was mighty impressive by Arctic Fire. With Nichols Canyon certainly going to the Champion hurdle now. Arctic Fire in the world? 16-1 looking nice now
Why are you so sure NC would go for the Champion? I think Graham Wylie would give his back teeth for another Inglis Drever, World Hurdle type so I think he may still go for that.
If it were to be testing come the day I'd fancy Kilcooley (ew) at the prices.
won't he just run all 3 in the champion, and go for a 1-2-3 again like this past march? it's 3 different owners so no problems
plus a couple of years ago willie thought arctic fire was a 2miler and not a yard more, he also says in today's race report arctic fire will come back to 2 miles over christmas
i don't see him being so wrong about one of his horses that arctic fire was a stayer all along and he didn't realise it
plus a couple of years ago willie thought arctic fire was a 2miler and not a yard more, he also says in today's race report arctic fire will come back to 2 miles over christmas
i don't see him being so wrong about one of his horses that arctic fire was a stayer all along and he didn't realise it
Agree largely with Tucho - can see them all running in the CH but surely since NC was in the Neptune last year he would be the one out of all 3 that was the most likeliest to step up to 3m I would have thought?
willie said after Punchestown about keeping Faugheen and Nichols Canyon apart now until March after that result so I'd Say that Nichols Canyon is now being aimed solely at the Champion Hurdle.
My wallet hopes Killultagh Vic is routed to this rather than going novice chasing. Maybe Willie will think twice after Thistlecrack's win yesterday?
Killultagh Vic angle is clever and I think you might me right. But he's built like a chaser and should go chasing but Thistlecrack form looks pretty hot now. I backed artic fire straight after the race today for the world hurdle but starting to regret it now, my gut says anther crack at champ hurdle after Mullins says Christmas hurdle probably next race for him over 2m.
Killultagh Vic was entered in novice chases a week or two ago but not recently - either he is not fit enough,hasnt schooled well or had a bit of a setback - either way , if he doesn't run over fences in 2015 , the chance increases that WPM will preserve his novice chase status and earmark the World Hurdle
Nov 29, 2015 -- 3:05PM, Tucho wrote:
won't he just run all 3 in the champion, and go for a 1-2-3 again like this past march? it's 3 different owners so no problemsplus a couple of years ago willie thought arctic fire was a 2miler and not a yard more, he also says in today's race report arctic fire will come back to 2 miles over christmasi don't see him being so wrong about one of his horses that arctic fire was a stayer all along and he didn't realise it
Personally can't see for any reason why having dropped NC to 2 and beaten the champion hurdler you'd then step him back up in trip and go with a relative unknown about whether he stays 3miles. Since a very impressive staying on second in the Champion Hurdle Arctic Fire has been stepped up to 2 and a half, 3 out of 4 runs and he's been impressive on every occasion, running all the way to line, putting in best work in the final half mile of the race leaving absolutely no doubt in my mind he stays 3 miles.
I personally don't think he has the speed for a champion hurdle and last years placings flattered him slightly, as he just stayed on past beaten horses. In my opinion this years World Hurdle will set up perfectly for him, Cole Harden will make sure theres a decent pace, which gives AF a perfect tow into the race, and the way he has travelled over 2&half I think he's an absolute perfect type for something like the World Hurdle, particularly in a market as cloudy as this years.
But what do i know!? This kind of speculation is the best part of the sport we all love! Roll on March
Ruby & Mullins totally dismissed yesterday any attempts of going above 2 and half miles with AF. He is too keen and has enough speed for a CH. Faugheen should've finished 4-5 lengths in front of him in last CH if not for the mistake at the 2nd last, but without Faugheen he's the 2nd best until others(like NC and P&C) improve. NC and AF will sort themselves out at Leopardstown around Christmas time and we'll know more then.
If Mullins totally dismissed going above 2.5 miles then I would suggest we all pile on Arctic Fire for the World Hurdle ASAP.
I'd suggest that Faugheen's performances leading up to the festival probably have a relevant bearing on where AF ends up too.
@HaylingBilly you're probably right lol but the stayers division looks even stronger now with newcomers Thistlecrack, Deputy Dan, Windsor Park, Aux Ptits Soins, Call The Cops all top notchers in their novice hurdling seasons, I doubt a shady stayer like AF is even considered for it, 2 miles is his best trip based on all form and his free going temperament.
and they've got the Liverpool hurdle to fall back onto as well
If anyone thinks that Arctic Fire will run in the World Hurdle well then they do not really know anything about the game.
Its pure and utter pub talk tripe, Monsignor has a better chance of turning up in the race.
Its pure and utter pub talk tripe, Monsignor has a better chance of turning up in the race.
Erm, just hold your fire there Mincer....Mullins has just put Arctic Fire in the 3m G1 Christmas Hurdle @ Leopardstown 
ahhh, ballydoyle, I was wonding where he went....why can't people have one name?
It's either him or Pauli wallnuts,it's the phrases like ' you need to give the game up',I know Aintree is different to Cheltenham but arctic fire didn't look as though it was stopping before falling at the last against jezki,it won't beat faugheen or nicholls canyon so it might aswell go for the world hurdle.
Anybody who thinks that Arctic Fire will run in Leopardstown over 3m or in the World Hurdle needs to have a good lie down for themselves.
I wouldn't back it for either,but we know it can't beat faugheen,so why not give it a go !
It has little to find with Faugheen on last years champion hurdle, who's to say Faugheen is as good this year also.
Put it this way , bar Faugheen he would be favourite against every single horse in a match bet for the champion hurdle right now.
So how in gods name are they going to go 3m, they may go 3m with something like The New One as he could well stay 3m and he definitely hasnt an earthly in a champion hurdle.
Put it this way , bar Faugheen he would be favourite against every single horse in a match bet for the champion hurdle right now.
So how in gods name are they going to go 3m, they may go 3m with something like The New One as he could well stay 3m and he definitely hasnt an earthly in a champion hurdle.
Killultagh Vic entered in 3m novice chase but not 3m hurdle at Leopardstown over Christmas so novice chasing still the plan currently it appears
Vroum Vroum mag added to the world hurdle betting with powers 
Mincer knows
mincer11
mincer11 01 Dec 15 18:30 Joined: 22 Feb 06 | Topic/replies: 1,750 | Blogger: mincer11's blog
Anybody who thinks that Arctic Fire will run in Leopardstown over 3m or in the World Hurdle needs to have a good lie down for themselves.
mincer11
mincer11 01 Dec 15 18:30 Joined: 22 Feb 06 | Topic/replies: 1,750 | Blogger: mincer11's blog
Anybody who thinks that Arctic Fire will run in Leopardstown over 3m or in the World Hurdle needs to have a good lie down for themselves.
Dec 28, 2015 -- 1:33AM, daveygfc wrote:
Mincer knowsmincer11mincer11 01 Dec 15 18:30 Joined: 22 Feb 06 | Topic/replies: 1,750 | Blogger: mincer11's blogAnybody who thinks that Arctic Fire will run in Leopardstown over 3m or in the World Hurdle needs to have a good lie down for themselves.
:)
14-1 for the world looks a nice price, if AF goes and wins today
That's what nrnb is for.
Anyone who backed him for today's race will deffinately not agree. But I'm glad ruby diddnt give him a hard time of it. still expect him to finish top 3 behind faugheen in the champion
Anyone who backed him for today's race will deffinately not agree. But I'm glad ruby diddnt give him a hard time of it. still expect him to finish top 3 behind faugheen in the champion
Can't see past Thistlecrack and Cole Harden myself. Should be 6/4 and 4/1 those two.
It's easy to be wise after the event but I backed Jezki against Fire at Aintree and thought I was cooked in between the last two but approaching the last I became more hopeful. He didn't strike me as any more of a stayer last time he ran so I'd be a little puzzled they went 3 miles on deep ground. Then again it is Mullins and Walsh and they do like plenty of fingers in plenty of pies.
Mincer in sure your the same person that said that about cue card beating Vautour !
WPM thinks there was something amiss. I myself thought the horse never looked interested. I think if they find any short term issues that they might not give up on 3 miles.
Still think Nichols Canyon should be the Mullins WH horse, and his battle there with Identity Thief makes me think it even more. Certainly looks more of a stayer than Arctic Fire anyway.
Nichols Canyon is the perfect WH horse - just a pity that fluke result against Faugheen made them go down the Champion route. Not convinced Identity Thief is all that - a neck beating of Top Notch? That's not Champion Hurdle form is it? Nichols Canyon did exactly what you would expect today - jump poorly and outstay an average horse.
Thief would have beaten Top Notch further had he jumped the last well. Top notch is a very consistent horse who because of his superb jumping is always close at the finish,no shame in being fairly close to him,no horse has beaten him far yet.
Thief is an improver and will be much better on normal festival ground.
He's one that could give Faugheen something to think about in my view.
Thief is an improver and will be much better on normal festival ground.
He's one that could give Faugheen something to think about in my view.
I think it's a case of WPM numbers and tactics. Faugheen ought to win CH in hand. If he doesn't, Canyon would due to how the race would pan out. He's a strong runner. Arctic Fire is a horse i'm convinced would get 3m on reasonable ground. He would travel over the favs. What happens at the last is anybodys.
just got back to a level book having backed Thistlecrack (which was my only red!).
On the face of it there is not much competition for him so far and he is the justified jolly.
I've still not ruled out Arctic Fire to be the Mullins challenger...it may not take a lot of winning this year and he knows it.
I intend to continue taking the fancy prices on here (currently 20/1 best on the high st).
On the face of it there is not much competition for him so far and he is the justified jolly.
I've still not ruled out Arctic Fire to be the Mullins challenger...it may not take a lot of winning this year and he knows it.
I intend to continue taking the fancy prices on here (currently 20/1 best on the high st).
Prince of Scars was just matched at 95.0 for small money. Any rumours? Is he out?
ptb - i suspect it might have something to do with the oleary piece in the racing post where he gave ADO as their world hurdle horse and POS as a chaser for next year
just noticed from the graph that Arctic Fire is back in to 25's from 100's...i still believe there is a case for WM to send him over 3m in good ground come March.
That last race in Ire was run in a bog and at no stage was he put in the race by Ruby...i am still happy to let the fancy prices taken last week ride.
That last race in Ire was run in a bog and at no stage was he put in the race by Ruby...i am still happy to let the fancy prices taken last week ride.
http://www.sportinglife.com/racing/news/article/465/10113326/willie-mullins-looks-for-arctic-fire-christmas-hurdle-flop-reason
A day after the 3mile race Mullins said he didn't think Arctic Fire was himself, he wouldn't have won over any distance over Christmas and they expected something to show up in their tests.
"You couldn't say he didn't stay after that performance." he said.
But now they intend to drop him back to 2 miles for the Irish Champion Hurdle in 2 weeks, so I'm guessing nothing came out in the wash and he just plain didn't stay.
A day after the 3mile race Mullins said he didn't think Arctic Fire was himself, he wouldn't have won over any distance over Christmas and they expected something to show up in their tests.
"You couldn't say he didn't stay after that performance." he said.
But now they intend to drop him back to 2 miles for the Irish Champion Hurdle in 2 weeks, so I'm guessing nothing came out in the wash and he just plain didn't stay.
No, it did, Arctic Fire had a respiratory infection - it was in Mullins RP column the Saturday before last.
The owner(s) though clearly want another shot at the Irish Champion Hurdle and based on his proximity to Faugheen in last season's renewal, they're entitled to another shot at the Champion Hurdle too.
The owner(s) though clearly want another shot at the Irish Champion Hurdle and based on his proximity to Faugheen in last season's renewal, they're entitled to another shot at the Champion Hurdle too.
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