L'Ami Serge - Arkle

Indeed, if that performance by Douvan did not scare off potential challengers including L'Ami Serge I'd be very surprised - the only hope is Ar Mad's front running might unsettle Douvan, only hope!

Douvan was 1/14 guys, lets not get carried away

forget the price STS, if you should be able to look beyond that and appreciate the quality of what you saw , Douvan would laugh at L'ami Serge in the Arkle ...that horse will be heading to the JLT if they want to win at the festival with it.

He was that price for a reason.

Between UDS and Douvan I'd rather take Douvan and 1/2 of UDS's price ie 4/7, if I was 'buying' money, why? The jumping!

Only the quality of race in last years JLT that seperates what we saw there and Vautour at the last festival, the jumping did actually really look effortless, and the squeeze after the last and the immediate acceleration...perfection!

velvet was 2 lengths behind at the last and drifted right to the other side when jumping it, not mentioning he kissed the ground earlier on, I'd say he would've finished alot closer and he's only an 140 horse. Chelt entirely different test but if that scares opposition away its time to give up and stop training.

Very impressive performance that. He didn't get out of second gear all the way round and was foot perfect. I've no doubt he'll get further next year so I'd be suprsied if he took UDS on.

Re this year's Arkle, I think we all need to focus on the w/o Douvan markets!

Hope he does stay at 2 m Chief,something to look forward to next season in the QM.
UDS needs competition,and racing needs it.

Completely agree mate, and don't want to start thinking of next year already, but I personally don't think they'll take each other on, as much as I'd like them too.

Stamina wise, 2.5m is easily within Douvan's radar.

It was impressive,but we still don't know how he will fare in a 2m chase at Cheltenham,and he's yet to face the English opposition.

Douvan will hose up, will be decent to see Ar Mad taking his place if he can go left handed as he will go off at a clip but don't think anyone can live with him.

Well you are not alone.
I say let the other horses speak for themselves and wait a bit before hailing him the victor.
Seven weeks to pass yet.

Budd i'd guess your a cautious dovan backer who wishes the festival was sooner. I  think velvet maker is no mug. I'd give douvan a mark of around 172 already. Wish i had any sort of voucher on him.

No,ain't backed him unfortunately.
Just think the race is still interesting.

@bettingmoe – L’Ami Serge will run in the Kingmaker at Warwick and then onto the Arkle which has always been his aim. Although he’s run and won twice over fences, he still needs more experience as both were races where fences were omitted due to the weather and he was very much the best horse in the race taking on inferior opposition.

I think he's a fair price at 11/2 tomorrow, in receipt of 8lbs from Dodging Bullets.

A good run here should put all talk of the JLT to bed.

What about Warwick?

Ah didn't see he was still entered in the Kingmaker.

Just looking through the Newbury card and saw he was in the Game Spirit, so assumed they'd switched his targets.

Ignore everything I said above

I've to concede LS is heading to the Arkle, drubbing or not, unless something is amiss with BDM or the ground comes up unbelievably soft on Arkle day.

If the ground comes up unbelievably soft, he's even more likely to go for the Arkle, surely?

If going is unbelievably soft on Arkle day BDM is more likely to go to the Arkle, according to its trainer, and LS rerouted to the JLT.

But it won't be to do with his trainer will it? I can't believe Munir will switch them around when they clearly think BdM is the one with more stamina, hence the current arrangements?

I believe the logic behind it was Douvan could be less effective in the soft and as such BDM had a better chance of beating  Douvan than L'Ami Serge. On the other hand L'Ami Serge would have a 'fav' chance in the JLT.

Surely not now!

JLT or nothing

Shift BDM to the RSA.

Absolute rubbish.

Something must be amiss, that is not the same LS out there today!

Based on his jumping today the best race for him is the Champion Hurdle.  Jump poorly and soft. Over hyped. Just my opinion.

LS was run off his feet, and his jumping did not improve after making a few slopping jumps; I think I've written off my stake backing him without Douvan in the Arkle.

Horse absolutely legless over the last. JLT definitely off the menu. Mind due with that jumping you'd lay all day and novice chase next month.

any

He was legless at the last because he was run off of his feet through the race and was forced into making mistakes.

Whether Arkle or JLT, he's winning nothing based on that.

I personally wouldn't shift Bristol de Mai's race to accommodate L'Ami; BDM is easily the owners best chance of a winner now, so he should have first pick of what race to be in.

And The winner took the last 4 out by the roots

The nothing special winner smacked more than half the fences so if L'ami can't travel upsides then it's no chance following BDM et al over 2.5m.

Only an opinion obviously but I could see BDM being run off of his feet a bit on better ground in the JLT, I wouldn't be moving him to suit L'ami, I reckon it would be for his own good, whether he could deal with MOT and co is another matter.

Exactly Decalec.  If Violet Dancer put in a great round, you can say fair enough, but Violent Dancer clouted about 5 as well.

Duffy, I don't think he was run off his feet.  He had his ground today, and Violent Dancer isn't a speed freak, he just grinds them out from the front.  I just think LS wasn't good enough.

Anyway, at this rate Douvan is going to have a relative walkover, I'm not counting Ar Mad, who the trainer didn't even fancy for the race not too long ago, and he's an optimist!

Anthony Bromley, racing manager to L'Ami Serge's owners, said: "It's safe to say he won't be running in the Arkle and we'll have to see how he is in next few days if he will run [in the JLT]. He was jumping to his left more than usual and that was disappointing."

Arkle will be a no bet race for me now.  Can't back Douvan at 1/3 or whatever price he is, but pointless trying to take him.

Main thing is, I'm bloody glad I got my stake back in the Game Spirit because he'd still be running now!

I'm glad the first day of the festival is the first day and not the last if you know what I mean

Still 14/1 on offer for the JLT here if one thinks he's still Cheltenham bound.

Yes, get all the hotpots over and done with especially if one is doing multiples.

It's not going to be a popular opinion but IMO and all things being equal, I just think that L'ami is a better horse than BDM, he'd put up a better show in the JLT providing he is OK for me whereas BDM has a real chance of staying 3 miles and running well in the RSA.

I suppose it's quite risky trying 3m out for the first time in the RSA, especially when the 5yo don't get the big allowance like they used to.

If L'Ami and BDM all lined up in the JLT, I would expect BDM to finish ahead of him, but based on his jumping.  If anything Vyta Du Roc would be best served in the JLT too, so the owner could have three in it.

This has always puzzled me: why do trainers with horses earmarked for a shorter distance race as 1st choice starts off running in one, then runs in a longer race and back to a shorter one? Surely, for a lay person this will only confuse the horse especially a horse who is not a natural over fences and needs more practice over them - I'm perplexed!

There are good horses in the JLT; Outlander and BDM are good but nothing special, could Jonjo be thinking of MOT for the JLT as well - it is there for the taking, If so, BDM could be switched to the RSA and possibly give NMH a proper race; BDM could even end up competing in longer races after.

If connections were talking LS up as there best novice chaser would that not worry the army of BDM supporters, Personally not sure what went wrong today with LS but I couldn't have BDM for any race at Cheltenham.

Very disappointing year so far for an owner who looked to have a least 4 top class horses to challenge with in big races, and now the least lightly of the 4 is only realistic chance. I'll be laying him all day long.

Feb 13, 2016 -- 3:13PM, wellchief wrote:

Exactly Decalec.  If Violet Dancer put in a great round, you can say fair enough, but Violent Dancer clouted about 5 as well.Duffy, I don't think he was run off his feet.  He had his ground today, and Violent Dancer isn't a speed freak, he just grinds them out from the front.  I just think LS wasn't good enough.

Have you renamed him Violent Dancer deliberately because he kept clouting the fences and then doing a little jig when he landed? Made me giggle!

On a serious note, I don't know whether Ar Mad is good enough or will go LH but the Moore family are definitely not passive when it comes to race tactics, just as they did n't worry about what L'Ami Serge was going to do today, they won't be letting Douvan dictate in the Arkle surely?

Is he out of Arkle now?

JLT or nothing I read on Racing Post site

Yesterday's race too bad to be true - Fox Norton a fair horse ran no race either weird hope they just put a
I've thru race & continue with Arkle plan

Maybe horse didn't act on track at Warwick

Anthony Bromley, racing manager to L'Ami Serge's owners, said: "It's safe to say he won't be running in the Arkle and we'll have to see how he is in the next few days if he will run [in the JLT]. He was jumping to his left more than usual and that was disappointing."

Run has to be too bad to be true, something am very confident will come to light. If nothing does, then my L'ami Serge slips are in the bin

STS - if your slips are for the Arkle I reckon you are done for no matter what. Along with many others.

Why are the owners pretending to be training? Do they think they know more than Hendo?

Must be hard training horses with owners that give those sort of declarations, it leaves you no choice.

L'ami Sege won't even go to the festival after that run , nothing against violet Dancer but the top four in the Arkle betting would lap him . Sizing John 8/1 w/o Douvan seems to be the bet

The Seven Barrows trainer reported the six-year-old to be "very perky" on Sunday morning and was at a loss to explain his under-par display in the Kingmaker Novices' Chase.

Sent off 1-5 favourite to beat two rivals, he ran way below form and was beaten 11 lengths by Violet Dancer, which appears to have damaged his prospects for the Cheltenham Festival.

However, Henderson dismissed reports that L'Ami Serge would definitely miss the Racing Post Arkle Trophy, for which he was pushed out from 7-1 second favourite to as big as 16-1. He also holds an engagement in the JLT Novices' Chase.

"He is 100 per cent this morning. He was perfectly all right when we scoped him at the races yesterday," said Henderson.


"He's sound as a pound this morning and we will have to try to find out what went wrong, because it did.

"He was never comfortable at any stage. Obviously it was pretty horrendous ground but he has run on soft ground before, he has run in heavy ground, and it's not been a worry.

"He schooled on Thursday and he was electric. His work has been brilliant and he just didn't turn up on Saturday. I do not know why. We will check him out tomorrow.

"The only thing I would emphasise is that we are not ruling the Arkle out, we are not ruling anything out. I certainly wouldn't rule out the Arkle but if there was a forfeit for the JLT tomorrow we would leave him in that as well.

"We scoped him at the races and he was 100 per cent clean. He's sound and very perky this morning. You wouldn't know he'd been anywhere and this horse all week has been in fantastic form.

"Daryl (Jacob) schooled him on Thursday and you will never see a horse jump better, but that horse didn't jump yesterday. Whether it was ground or what, I don't know.

"We've got to sort it out, we've got to see where we are."

Shockster does that not make it worse though . I've backed him myself at 14/1 down to 7s but can't see how he would run after yesterday .

@Quevega hopefully you're wrong and the trainer gets to decide the plans for horses, not owners or the public. Otherwise what is the point of training? Runs are always excusable and the festival is what matters, not some prep race on bad ground where something clearly was amiss.

Do you think something was amiss Tim or a 145 rated horse put his jumping to the test I.e mistakes . I totally understand that trainers should be deciding the races that's there job . I can also see the side from the owners they want a horse in every race . Look at Mullins it's happened at his stable with Don  Poli last yr but it wouldn't have mattered  4mile or 3mile he'd have won both . Owners need to let the trainers do the talking by winning races

Horse racing is turning into a more publicity stunt these last few years with gigginstown etc constantly on the TVs.

I've not backed LS so from a punting point of view yesterday did me no harm. He didn't jump well but I would not under estimate Violet Dancer. Should he actually jump well then I think he could be serious. Good value in the without Douvan market.

Yeah definitely is value there. It's the chance you (I) take with trying to get away from a short anti post fav at the festival . It'll continue to be up and down .

I'm not sure whats going on but everyone has a similar view that wasn't the L'ami Serge we are accustomed to seeing on a race course. Its not the first time Tricky Nicky got a long odds on shot beaten in a prep race for Cheltenham. I remember a 1/14 shot getting beat over a certain hunch Nicky had.

I remember not so long ago people questioning Faugheen when NC beat him, well that was a instance when Faugheen didn't give a true running. People hyped up NC on the back of it but with Wicklow brave only just behind it was obvious it couldn't possibly be a true running. The faithful were rewarded with 7/4 for the champion hurdle post race

I have a sneaky feeling at some stage LS will leave that shocker behind.

Feb 14, 2016 -- 12:57PM, Quevega06 wrote:

Horse racing is turning into a more publicity stunt these last few years with gigginstown etc constantly on the TVs.

agree, where all these racing managers came from? its totally different sport and trainer's responsibilities are just about all in one. I do see the purpose of keeping owner's horses apart, but they have BDM for JLT so makes no sense to put Serge in same race instead of running in what suits him, maybe a chance of tactics and let him go out in front instead of holding him up.

Feb 14, 2016 -- 1:12PM, baNjackst wrote:

I'm not sure whats going on but everyone has a similar view that wasn't the L'ami Serge we are accustomed to seeing on a race course. Its not the first time Tricky Nicky got a long odds on shot beaten in a prep race for Cheltenham. I remember a 1/14 shot getting beat over a certain hunch Nicky had.I remember not so long ago people questioning Faugheen when NC beat him, well that was a instance when Faugheen didn't give a true running. People hyped up NC on the back of it but with Wicklow brave only just behind it was obvious it couldn't possibly be a true running. The faithful were rewarded with 7/4 for the champion hurdle post raceI have a sneaky feeling at some stage LS will leave that shocker behind.

Potentially a decent parallel - after Faugheen got beaten Mullins thought in retrospect he had done too much during the week - I note Henderson said L'Ami Serge schooled on Thursday and was 'electric' - maybe he took too much out of himself 2 days before a race on bad ground - I'm sure Henderson has forgotten more about racehorses than I'll ever know but trainers do make mistakes.

Violet isn't a 6 times G1 winner, the bounce factor comes into it after a long layoff and was Faugheen seasonal appearances where he always performs below par(due to weight & fitness). Serge had a race just less than a month ago so race fitness and bounce factor can be ruled out. I don't think that was the cause, he just didn't jumped well and maybe needs to be ridden more aggressively and obviously something on the day was amiss. He previously ran to RP figures of 154 and 156 in his 2 runs over fences, now got 11 lengths beating from a mid 140 horse, that just isn't possible unless Violet improved to 160 which is hard to believe.

Its very possible ReaseHeath, and Mullins didn't take the same chance with Un de Seaux when he was way to free in a schooling session. He bypassed his intended race.

After Nicky got Zaynar beat at 1/14 at Kelso he went on to finish 3rd to binocular in the champion. So he does make mistakes like everyone but is well capable of making up for them.

he beat Violet Dancer 15 lengths over hurdles giving him 3lbs too - different discipline admittedly but it's not as if Violet Dancer jumped him into submission yesterday.

Everything you say about Faugheen/NC is correct timtin - but it's also a fact that Mullins was quoted post defeat as saying they might have worked him too hard during the week.

It's possible they might find a muscular issue when they examine him more closely I suppose.

Faugheen was taken to the Curragh racecourse and his brains must've switched on and had almost a race when destroying NC, the bounce factor came into play when they met 4 days later. We could believe Hendo about the electric work Serge did but Faugheen work was seen by hundreds of spectators and his price collapsed to 1/6 during that week for no apparent reason. Even if Serge worked too hard we can't believe that when its coming from only 1 source and its not like he worked against Violet, who knows what he worked against but point is that I don't put this down to bounce factor or doing too much in that home work. He just had a off day for whatever reason and I can't take this running as his true form when he previously ran to 156. Also I believe a change of tactics and going from the front might suit him.

Timtin -bounce factor has nothing to do with the horses mentioned, all had uninterrupted training. What is been said that sometimes horses train with over exuberance wasting precious energy and fatigue easier as a result. This definitely happened to American Pharoah, and possibly happened to Faugheen against NC and L'ami Serge yesterday. Mullins wouldn't allow it to happen to UDS.
You do seem to agree that the form shown yesterday is below par. As for tactics LS should walk all over yesterdays opposition ridden anyway whatsoever. That implies either the horse is injured (which apparently isn't) or he left his race somewhere else.

Heard LS was coughing loads after the race when taken back to stables, Whether he got some mud in his mouth or does have a cough I can't say for sure, Just what I heard from someone who had a runner yesterday.

Henderson has confirmed L'Ami Serge for The Arkle and says nothing came to light about his Kingmaker run. Vaniteux also runs.

I wouldn't say he said quite that shockster!! I read it as hasn't ruled anything out yet... but suppose Bromley and MUnir will decide and Bromley was quite dismissive after the last run.

Sorry, just quoted Bill Esdale off Twitter.  Backed him in the W/O market 6/1 on the back of it.

Only caught a snippet of it and not the whole thing but thought he was still a bit vague... He may well know more though!

Fingers crossed its right anyway... will be nice to have a run for the money.

@BillEsdaile
City AM Racing Editor, MD of Square in the Air - clients include Racing Post, Betway, Sporting Index and Gloucester Rugby Club.

"Vaniteux and L'Ami Serge will both go to the Arkle. Nothing ever came to light about Kingmaker flop. 'Extraordinary mystery'"

@BillEsdaile
City AM Racing Editor, MD of Square in the Air - clients include Racing Post, Betway, Sporting Index and Gloucester Rugby Club.

"Vaniteux and L'Ami Serge will both go to the Arkle. Nothing ever came to light about Kingmaker flop. 'Extraordinary mystery'"

@BillEsdaile
City AM Racing Editor, MD of Square in the Air - clients include Racing Post, Betway, Sporting Index and Gloucester Rugby Club.

"Vaniteux and L'Ami Serge will both go to the Arkle. Nothing ever came to light about Kingmaker flop. 'Extraordinary mystery'"

Apols

Been alot of talk about lami serge going jlt this evening despite henderson saying he goes arkle earlier in the week.

Been alot of talk about lami serge going jlt this evening despite henderson saying he goes arkle earlier in the week.

Been alot of talk about lami serge going jlt this evening despite henderson saying he goes arkle earlier in the week.

Not again! I've already accepted the horse will do battle with Douvan in the Arkle and probably get a thumping in the process.

Mar 7, 2016 -- 9:53PM, scooby91 wrote:

Been alot of talk about lami serge going jlt this evening despite henderson saying he goes arkle earlier in the week.

based on David Minton's comments at Weatherbys preview evening, Scooby? You'd have to take that seriously, think he is pretty close to Henderson yard.

Yes that's where I heard it first, he was tipping every henderson horse,  then he said vaniteux goes arkle (obviously) but even henderson thinks he can't beat douvan.

yep, RUK reporting that L'Ami Serge goes to JLT with Nico likely to ride.

Nico gonna have a nice book of rides but it's a bit boom or bust with the Henderson horses...

Hendo quiet plays down his horses chances publicly, especially when up against a hot pot.
I imagine he thinks he has a chance.

Good news, fancy him for this race, and Bromley was telling the truth all that time ago

Is it confirmed then?

Anthony Bromley, the owners' racing manager, said: "He'll be kept in both races, but it's more likely he'll be going for the JLT.

We'll keep an eye on the forecast, and may rethink plans, but the owners will probably have two runners in the JLT.



So,likely but not definite

My bet is alive again if no further twist between now and race day. Could this have been brought about by the non-appearance of MOT? It does have a better chance but Outlander and BH are no pushover though.

I'd heard last Friday that he'd schooled abysmal whenever they tried to work him with something quicker and wasn't going to Cheltenham full stop. So really surprised when Bromley said today they are going for the JLT.

My JLT bet is alive then but so poor at Warwick don't hold out much hope tbh