Vautour - Thinking of making it my biggest bet -

If he turned up in the Ryanair AND he'd done nothing to show he isn't as good as horse of 2015 then off course he'll be very short but I don't think he'd be an odds on chance as the Ryanair could attract a bigger field as the Gold Cup could look super hot. So, and I'm guessing here if everything goes well and he turns up maybe an 11/10 chance but the Ryanair isn't the Gold Cup and the one they'll want to win. A Ryanair winner is forgotten in time whereas a Gold Cup Winner is a Gold Cup Winner so I'd say odds against him going to the Ryanair unless he's exposed as an non-stayer in which case he's unlikely to be 11/10 for the Ryanair.

Ante-Post isn't what it used to be as the bookies give $hit odds so far from the race  - not worth the risk IMO.

The machine remained over hurdles, unfortunately.


I wouldn't touch Vautour AP because its the worst case scenario, if he doesn't stay(first proper test in the King George) he'll either be sent CC or Ryanair, if he stays he'll go GC but it'll be a vintage GC so the chances of winning it won't be big. Don Cossack and Coneygree are real standouts and the GC is their target 100%, if you want to place an AP bet these 2 are at least sure to be targeted for that race, unlike the other market contenders.

Rather back him to win any race at 3/1 with P.P at this stage. Am in the same boat as you I think the Ryanair is tailor made,

I think Vautour is tailor-made for the KG and i believe he will run a massive race assuming ground is no worse then Good to Soft. If that happens then you will be able to get any price you want for the Ryanair on Betfair Exchange.

Whatever Djakadam does will have no bearing whatsoever on where Vautour goes. You only get one shot at the GC and Ricci will not be holding back any potential winners. GL

Agree with racing guru myself... antepost is just getting worse and worse. It has been my favourite punting over the years, particularly for the Cheltenham festival, but cant see me doing very much this year as the bookies seem wary of laying realistic odds.

4/1, for a race 5 months away, that isnt even his primary target at this stage, in which case he must be odds against to even run in, doesn't seem like much value to me tbh.

Good luck all the same!

Love the horse and was gutted he wasn't targeted at the CH last season but pleased he showed what he was all about come the festival....he'll have to show me that he'll stay 3 miles first before I back him.....GC....that'll be tough the way he goes through a race.

ditto duffy.

Staying 3m2f at cheltenham  is something i would not like this horse to even attempt.

Thanks for the conversation chaps, and many thanks to Foolsgold as I have taken the 3/1 on offer to win any race as it takes the guess work right out of the equation.

I wish the table were reversed so we can see Faugheen over fences, he won a PTP for god sake he was destined for fences.. but unfortunately Vautour had no chance on his 2m form in any recent renewals of the CH, his form in Supreme was beating Vaniteux by 6 lengths and that horse was no where near the group level hurdling. Earlier in the season he almost got beat by Western Boy.
His somewhat better form, but again no where near good enough for a CH was beating an overcooked 150 rated The Tullow Tank by 3 lengths over 18f who had 3 hard races before meeting Vautour. Then beating 140 rated Apache Stronghold over 20f by 3 lengths making hard work of it. Taking on Jezki and the likes was too far apart from what he showed and when Faugheen displayed that monstrous turn of foot at P'town over 2 miles beating former adversaries of Vautour by miles, everyone in Mullins camp knew who needs to go where.

Hopefully he stays 3m in the KG so he can then target the GC, otherwise it'll be Ryanair.

patrick says his dad is working back from the gold cup for Vatour this season, only one target IMO

not very complimentary about djackadam, doesnt think he improved, and last year was his chance, so maybe why

The three I'd pencil in for the Ryanair would be Valseur Lido, Clarcam and Apache Stronghold.

Valseur Lido and Apache were best of the rest behind Vautour last year, and were closely matched all year, with them always finishing right by each other.  That makes the 33's on Apache good value, compared to the 14's on Valseur.

Clarcam was electric at Aintree when upped in trip, but didn't even realise he got beat into third at Gowran the other week.

With doubts over Vautour's participation, Don Cossack highly unlikely in this, last years winner having a setback, and others listed like Cue Card, Simonsig, Sprinter, Dynaste etc all having previous injury problems; I'd want to be on one of those three second season novices above.

3/1 any race on Vautour doesn't look too bad though, considering he's shorter than that for most in the Ryanair, and only top price 5'd for the Gold Cup....I'll have a think.

Looks like ricci's vroom vroom also to be targeted for ryanair.

I'd be very surprised if Vautour lines up in any race but the Gold Cup next March should he make it to Cheltenham for the following reasons:

1) Mullins has never won a Gold Cup and this must be the number one priority for the season for a trainer of his standing. Vautour would appear to give him the best chance of doing so.
2) Walsh is strongly in favour of the Gold Cup route and maintains he will stay
3) Ricci has restated the fact that this is his no.1 target
4) He was not stopping going up the hill in the JLT last March albeit over a shorter distance
5) If it transpires that he doesn't stay the GC distance then we will not find this out before the Gold Cup as the KG over 3 miles on a flat track will not expose a true non stayer.

It's still largely guess work as to whether he stays but imo its the correct decision to go for the GC at least at this stage of the season. If he gets beaten in the KG by either Coneygree or Don Cossack then there may well be a re-think but even that might not be enough to misdirect him unless he shows obvious signs of not finishing his race which is very unlikely imo.

sounds like JD, KG and straight to gold cup

I'm thinking of checking the speling.

I think trigger has it spot on.

Ricci has said the Gold Cup is the main target and Willie will be desperate to win his first GC.

Looked a complete superstar at the festival in 2014, even more so this year, loves Cheltenham and Willie will probably train him for this race specifically

Will he or won't he stay, time will tell, but I think he will stay all day long. The amount of energy Vautour had after winning the JLT was very impressive

Get on the Ryanair train - Choo Choo :)

Totally agree Sheikh.

I don't. No dog in the fight but there are several reasons why Vautour should line up on the Friday rather than Thursday.

But EO, lots of those reasons are irrelevant imo. I think the discussions about the horses chances and all the reasons he should go for Gold are much less important than the make up of RR's Cheltenham team and him splitting them between races.

He's always done it, and always will imo. I genuinely don't think he's obsessed with winning a GC, he just wants Cheltenham winners. And nobody can argue that Vautour doesn't have a much better chance of winning the Ryanair, whilst Djakadam could still go off fav for the GC.

And PP's 12/1 about a horse who just nearly won the KG on his first attempt at 3m speaks volumes.

Good points. If that is Ricci's modus operandi going forward then of course that is exactly how it will pan out. We sometimes make the mistake of thinking that what we see as logical is how others see things.

Although purely from a logic perspective I don't think the reasons are irrelevant as to what race he should run in. Ultimately though you hit on the single most relevant factor when it comes to the crunch. What do connections want to do? Annie Power should have run in the champion hurdle the year she was outstayed in The Stayers. Connections decided otherwise.

Exactly. Every owner is different. If it was JP I'd be positive they would both go for the big one.

Maybe because RR is so new to racing, I just don't think he 'gets' the prestige of some races over others. It's all just about 'Cheltenham winners'. After all, he did agree to allow the most brilliant winner of a Supreme go for the JLT over an Arkle.

To be honest, I think good luck to him. Who can say it's wrong?

Ok maybe irrelevant was the wrong word. Just less important.

Nobody and the game is much the "richer" for our American friend investing heavily and helping to raise the profile of the sport with his eccentric flamboyance.

Of the triumvirate of Mullins, Ricci and Walsh, I imagine the trainer will have the biggest say. Given what we know to date then it's true to say that he has a more clear cut chance of winning a Ryanair than a Gold Cup. However if Mullins fails to win a Cheltenham Gold cup it will be a glaring void on his copy book. Vautours chosen route will largely boil down to whether Mullins can feel secure that Djakadam or Don Poli can bring him home the holy grail. Mullins has always been cautious in taking the safe option though so it's far from certain he will go for gold after today.

I think Ricci leans on Mullins advice as to which race to choose. Ricci is not like the O'Learys he will not have the final say.

Trigger. I still don't think he would run his three best staying chasers in one race even if it is the GC, and none in the Ryanair. I actually think that would be a bit daft too tbh. Gold Riband or not.

Nobody can ever feel secure about their horse winning the holy grail as you put it. There may always be one that pulls out something special or unexpected on the day. Djakadam and Don Poli have very good chances as do several other contenders. The race would in my view be diminished without a horse many consider to be the one to take on the mantle of the greats last held by Kauto. Given Vautour is only six and seven in March one can only think there will be significant improvement between now and then. It's a funny game. Had he jumped the last well and held on by a length he'd be close to favourite in my view.

I totally agree. I think the 12/1 is unbelievable based on today. Especially when you consider he's better on Spring ground and trained to peak in March. Based on today I think he could win a GC and if he goes for it, I will back him

But I've thought for a while that there is more than meets the eye to his price.

8/1 NRNB with Skybet for the GC might be a decent move.

Stan James standout 12/1 but won't take a bet

outstayed by Cue Card.
Don't think he'll get up the hill.

Could be right , think he's a totally different horse on Spring ground though . Also if he does go gold cup 12/1 will look massive no doubt he'll be shorter on the day .

Couldn't back him for the GC after boxing day, he's far too keen for the distance around Cheltenham and clearly ran out of legs, Reckon they had him perfect the other day too, he looked pretty imperious to me right up until the point he ran out of gas, as for the what if's, well what if DC stood up and carried that run through right to the line to win going away with Vautour back in 3rd...who'd want him then?

Totally agree with Duffy.

He looked pretty much at his best,the way he travelled and around 3 out I wondered if he was going to win easily.
Reason he did not,is glaringly obvious,just did not stay well enough.

I really cannot see him in much better shape than that come March,and if he is in the Gold Cup,than in my view connections will have completely ignored what we have all seen,and we will see a horse struggling to get home.

Outstayed in a KG,going another 2 furlongs up hill.....they would be mad. They are not mad.

I agree as well the Ryanair would be the best option no doubt. Just thinking of what Ricci/Mullins have said . Just makes me think was it the ground or maybe not 100% we just don't and won't know , why would they even contemplate the gold when they've Djkadam . Just saying from a value point of view he won't be 12/1 on the day .

Mullins rarely tells people anything but Ricci was interviewed pre race and said he was 20 kilos lighter than for his first race at Ascot and also said that he thought there was more to coe off before Cheltenham and like with his sother best horses he would be trained to peak for Cheltenham. Which doesn't say he'll stay but he does prefer left handed, is unbeaten at Cheltenham and if stripping fitter will be a different horse irrespective of which race he goes for.

I don't think he will go for the GC either, but taking him 8/1 NRNB just in case seems a no brainier as he will be shorter if he does imo

I couldn't believe he would be any shorter on the day, travelling like a demon turning in and getting caught on the line with a shortening stride must show he didn't get home properly on then day. Fast forward to March and if he goes off as keen as he was on boxing day and you can immediately put a line through him, if he settles better he still has to get further on a stiffer track.

What would make him single figures is the impression he gave in the JLT that he is a monster and somehow, and what we all saw the other day may actually be wrong and we can't allow a horse like this go off at a silly price.

If someone asked before the KG what would you expect to see from the race that would tell you that Vautour has stamina issues, the answer would go something like...

the horse would travel through the race in much the same way as he did in the JLT with us all wondering just how far he was going to win by, then up the straight he'd gradually tire a get caught

If he was under pressure a mile out people would say that you can't blame the distance, he ran the textbook description of what a questionable stayer looks like and it being even more stark with him because of how classy a horse he is and he he travels through a race.

Picture this- Soft Ground Chelts.

Coming to 2 out- Vautour hard on the steel leading with Don Poli pushing and shoving 1 length behind....

They both jump the last 2 fine... who wins??

1.01 Don Poli.

And that's why it has to be the Ryanair for Vautour - It won't get the gold cup trip unfortunately as i still think it's a cracking horse!

Plus it gives Ricci a chance to stick it to Gigginstown in their own race :)

Could be the irish One Man :)

Don Poli would be about sixth coming to two out with the jockey having given it the full yahoo for about half a mile. No pace and no class. Don Cossack could be there. Cue Card could be there. Road To Riches and Djakadam could be there. Not Don Poli in my view.

duffy

You could of course be right. There's another possible scenario. If you'd been offered second in the King George beaten narrowly after his race at Ascot, knowing the horse is a spring horse, is better left handed and is trained to peak in March then I suspect you'd take it. If Vautour was ripe on Boxing Day then of course he's clearly not going to stay a gold cup but horses aren't lights being able to be switched on and off. He was clearly a long way short of full fitness at Ascot and my view is that they took a step forward from then with further steps to come in terms of fitness before March wherever he eventually runs.

Bit harsh there Eternal on a horse which has won 3 grade 1's - and has a record of 8 wins from 12 runs.... I'd love to own a horse which has "no pace or class" which has that kind of record.

Fair comment Shiekhy. I think what drew my ire there is the thought that of all the horses in the race that it would be Don Poli a length down two out.

Sheikh - Eternal was never the sharpest knife in the drawer. A bit slow to recognise what it takes to win the GC. Don Poli is the real deal when it comes to the GC.

vatour totally unsuited by going left handed ,watch the rerun of the king George , jaw cocked left wants to be going left and it seems to  affect his jumping imo  ,never as fluent at his fences  as at Cheltenham and edging left at a lot of the fences  in the circumstnces he has run a massive trial for the gold cup imo ,the big question is does he stay ? well on a more suitable track and on good ground plus the evidence that he is better in the spring and that they will hold onto him for longer then I think he has every chance of getting the trip ,could well be wrong tho! we will see !

Stan James is the only bookie still going 10's and he was 10's on here NRNB for a week or so after the KG run. There is belated recognition that it was an impressive run for his first run over 3 miles where conditions didn't really suit.