Cheltenham Festival
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17 Mar 15
11:32
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01 Mar 03
The overwhelming thought I'm left with after doing a quick analysis of the winners at the Festival 2015 is the need to keep it simple.
Twelve Festival winners won last time out (possibly thirteen since I've not dug deep into Aux Ptits Soins back form in France). A further six were in the first three last time out so it doesn't pay to look too far beyond the obvious in that respect.
Similarly thirteen winners prepped at either Leopardstown or Cheltenham. the bulk of them in this calendar year (not Dom Poli, Faugheen, Rivage D'Or, Moon Racer, The Package or Next Sensation - but note four out of those six were trained by either Willie Mullins or David Pipe). Focus on the action at these two courses in January and February and you won't have gone far wrong this year.
On the breeding front, Irish and French breds led the way although two out of 'The Big Four' winners (Dodging Bullets and Coneygree) were British Bred. Little to note on the sire front with a plethora of different sires to the winners and only Kings Theatre (The Druids Nephew and Glens Melody) siring more than the one winner. Poliglote was the sire of one winner (Don Poli) and the damsire of another (Qualando) but that's nothing to be hanging your hat on from a punting perspective.
I can't quantify it but my feeling is that there was more of an emphasis on speed in the 2015 winners pedigrees rather than stamina, but I repeat, that is just a feel and this is an analysis of only one years' results. Perhaps worth bearing in mind though?
The other blindingly obvious stat was the number of winners who led / made all / disputed lead / front-rank in their 'in racing' comments, in fact only Cause of Causes, Rivage D'Or, Moon Racer and Wicklow Brave came from a long way off the pace.
I don't bet in the Bumper or the X-Country Race so next season I might at least try and figure out those who like to be held up and eliminate them from shortlist - as well as contemplating 'in running' plays on those who aren't out the back with a mile to run, but practically, this would be dependent on getting a decent wi-fi connection at the course for me.
Finally, as regards keeping it simple, in the amateur races it was the Jamie and Nina show. You can throw in Derek O'Connor and Sam Waley-Cohen (who also rides Aintree better than many professionals) and this makes analysis of the Amateur races a whole lot easier.
Anything I've missed?
Twelve Festival winners won last time out (possibly thirteen since I've not dug deep into Aux Ptits Soins back form in France). A further six were in the first three last time out so it doesn't pay to look too far beyond the obvious in that respect.
Similarly thirteen winners prepped at either Leopardstown or Cheltenham. the bulk of them in this calendar year (not Dom Poli, Faugheen, Rivage D'Or, Moon Racer, The Package or Next Sensation - but note four out of those six were trained by either Willie Mullins or David Pipe). Focus on the action at these two courses in January and February and you won't have gone far wrong this year.
On the breeding front, Irish and French breds led the way although two out of 'The Big Four' winners (Dodging Bullets and Coneygree) were British Bred. Little to note on the sire front with a plethora of different sires to the winners and only Kings Theatre (The Druids Nephew and Glens Melody) siring more than the one winner. Poliglote was the sire of one winner (Don Poli) and the damsire of another (Qualando) but that's nothing to be hanging your hat on from a punting perspective.
I can't quantify it but my feeling is that there was more of an emphasis on speed in the 2015 winners pedigrees rather than stamina, but I repeat, that is just a feel and this is an analysis of only one years' results. Perhaps worth bearing in mind though?
The other blindingly obvious stat was the number of winners who led / made all / disputed lead / front-rank in their 'in racing' comments, in fact only Cause of Causes, Rivage D'Or, Moon Racer and Wicklow Brave came from a long way off the pace.
I don't bet in the Bumper or the X-Country Race so next season I might at least try and figure out those who like to be held up and eliminate them from shortlist - as well as contemplating 'in running' plays on those who aren't out the back with a mile to run, but practically, this would be dependent on getting a decent wi-fi connection at the course for me.
Finally, as regards keeping it simple, in the amateur races it was the Jamie and Nina show. You can throw in Derek O'Connor and Sam Waley-Cohen (who also rides Aintree better than many professionals) and this makes analysis of the Amateur races a whole lot easier.
Anything I've missed?
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How many winners were having their first run since having a breathing op?
Next Sensation and Cold Harden off the top of my head but there were more,And why aren't punters been made aware of this on the Race card? |
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Darna too
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the most striking thing to me is the performance of the top rated horse (in non-handicaps):
Supreme - Douvan Won 2/1F Arkle - UDS - Won 4/6F Champ Hurdle - Faugheeen/Hurricane Fly - Won/3rd 4/5F and 8/1 Mares Hurdle - Annie Power Fell 1/2F 4 miler - Thunder and Roses Fell 14/1 Neptune - Nicholls Canyon 3rd 7/2F RSA - Don Poli/Kings Palace - Won/6th 13/8F QMCC - Sire De Grugy - 4th 5/2F Ch Bumper - Moon Racer - Won 9/2F JLT - Ptit Zig - 5th 11/2 RyanAir - Wishfull Thinking - PU 28/1 WH - Saphir du R - 2nd - 5/1F Triumph - Peace and Co - Won 2/1F Albert B - Tea for two - PU 18/1 Gold Cup - Silvianaco - 7th 3/1F Foxhunters - On the Fringe - Won 6/1F 16 races - 7 winners from the 18 horses (two had joint top rated). Also - Add Annie Power as unlucky. Dodging Bullets rated within 1 of top rated. The winner in the 4 miler rated within 2 of the top rated. Clearly many of these horses were also Favourites; they were fancied and obliged. This is probably a function of conditions being very consistent: There was no rain until the Thursday night so the best horses were identifiable and as there was no major yard under a cloud nothing unduly went wrong. Some bits of bad luck - as is inevitable - but basically it played out as it was meant to... |
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First time headgear - The Package defo, don't know about any others, but this was a biggie in 2014.
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Cheltenham is so competitive, that you shouldnt read too much into the betting movements!
More than ever, there seemed to be plenty of winners that drifted this year, and most of the big gambles didnt win. Martello Tower was the most noticeable. I was on him antepost at 12's... backed him on the day of the race at 7's and had virtually written him off as I watched him drift as if he had lost a leg. Drifted on course from 7's to 14's and still won. Bizarre. Also, how many times will a Pipe plot like The Package drift a few points then still hose up? At your average meeting, more often than not, money talks. But at such a fiercely;y competitive meeting, it pays to keep faith with your selections, regardless of the betting imo. I'd also avoid any Ted Walsh gamble. How many times have we seen the mother of all gambles on one of his, only for it to run like a dog. |
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The big 3, Mullins/Nicholls/Hendo have swept the handicap hurdles this year winning 5/5, Mullins won the County and Conditional Jockeys, Hendo the Pertemps, Nicholls the Coral Cup and Fred Winter.
In 2014 they won 3/5, Nicholls won the County, Hendo the Coral Cup, Mullins the Conditionals. Pretty obvious shortlists then next year... They didn't win a handicap chase though and didn't get one in 2014 either, although tbf they don't throw the same ammount of ammunition as they do at the hurdles. |
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On the breeding point, 10/27 winners were sired by sons of Sadler's Wells, one by a grandson of SW. Another two were by sons of Danehill, so effectively half the winners carried Coolmore bloodlines.
Probably not what the Sangster/Magnier/O'Brien posse intended thirty years ago when they were buying up all the best yearlings in the hope of finding one top class stallion each year. And Aux Ptits Soins did win last time out - he was unbeaten 2/2 over hurdles prior to Cheltenham. |
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Worst quality QM/World in my memory(UDS would have skated up and Uxi would also have won running in the same vein).
Champion/Gold Cup fabulous. Vautour/Don Poli magnificent. Douvan sensational time and will be close to stable's Champion Hurdler next year imv(almost certainly Arkle bound though). J.Codd(COC)/Davy Rusell(Rd'O)rides of the meeting. Great meeting - thoroughly enjoyed it. |
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Annie - heartbreak of the century.
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