Walsh over Fences

That always was a statistic quoted by dumb mo'fo's.

If Western Warhorse hadn't chinned him on the line in the Arkle last year we'd have heard nothing of it this time around. You just had to see the quality of horses he had to ride and his undeniable ability in the saddle to know this was a blip not a trend.

Hold on...no winner since 2009 still stands as a staggering statistic, he's finally ended it now but it doesn't take anything away from it.....on the one hand you can't say he's ridden donkeys for 6 years and on the other state his undeniable ability in the saddle!!!! you could actually take the view that it's taken potential super horses in UDS and Vautour to bail him out.!!!

Duffy, therefore Nicholls can't train Chasers either according to your take on the stats.

Duffy give it a rest as Rathgorman has said you are then by extension saying that PFN cant train chasers either. As I have said a few times already on here statistics can be quite dangerous in the wrong hands.

Nothing of the sort, what I am saying is that walsh and nicholls should have done better in that particular discipline over the past few years considering the ammunition at their disposal.

blip....An unexpected, minor, and typically temporary deviation from a general trend:......6 years??

The fact that nicholl's trains big race chase winners week in and week out on Saturdays shows that come the festival he should have done better than he has over the past 6 years........I think it's fair to say that nicholl's producing one chase winner in his past 50 chase runners going into the festival is nothing short of staggering.....and no it doesn't mean he can't train them, it means that a man with his quality of horse should be doing better.

Duffy I presume you are not an expert on statistics (I am not either) but I would suggest you have a read of Leonard Mlodinow's "The Drunkard's Walk" which should explain plenty to you and even help you in your everyday attempt to beat the bookmaker.

Again Duffy prior to last week Jim Culloty had a 100% chase record at the festival.

Of course Vatour and UDS simply carried Walsh around the track as a passenger. Nothing to do with his mastery of pace and presenting them foot perfect at the fences.

Thanks Arkle, that's very generous of you

Rath, I take it no-one else would have won on those two??

Arkle, isn't there some rule somewhere, not sure if it's in that drunk book of yours, and forgive me if I'm misquoting it but like you I'm not an expert...but it's something about over time and in this case 6 years, the competitor with the greater skill and quality at his disposal should come out on top and show the best results???

There's a few who wouldn't have got the better of UDS and he'd have bolted with them.

Just to point out here, I'm not saying that Nicholl's can't train or Walsh can't ride, I'm actually pointing out that as they are quite adept and those particular disciplines they should have done better than they have...that's all!!

I doubt that it says that Duffy but it really is not six years - its really 5x4 days.

Which chasers should Walsh have won on during the intervening period ? Possibly Champagne Fever, cant think of him not getting the best out of anything else.

Rath, it's not so much "what he should have won on" it's more about managing to win on something regardless of whether it was strictly entitled to!!! I'd be expecting a jockey of his quality to managed it more often.....In the intervening period I'm sure that nicholl's and mullins would have provided enough for him to have done better...if United fail to get 4th spot this year I'd like to see how far LVG would get if he started talking about randomness governing all our lives and suchlike....let alone if they fail at it for the foreseeable future.

Boston Bob (IRE)       
Felix Yonger (IRE)   
Arvika Ligeonniere (FR)   
Ballycasey (IRE)   
Champagne Fever (IRE)   
Ulck Du Lin (FR)   
Silviniaco Conti (FR)   
Sweet My Lord (FR)   
Ghizao (GER)   
Marito (GER)   
Sanctuaire (FR)   
Unioniste (FR)   
Arvika Ligeonniere (FR)   
Toubab (FR)   
Kauto Star (FR)   
Crack Away Jack   
Blazing Tempo (IRE)   
Cristal Bonus (FR)   
Kauto Stone (FR)   
Join Together (IRE)   
Thatll Do   
Noland   
Al Ferof (FR)   
Pepe Simo (IRE)   
Kauto Star (FR)   
Poquelin (FR)   
Robinson Collonges (FR)   
Master Minded (FR)   
Mikael DHaguenet (FR)   
Definity (IRE)   
Free World (FR)   
Kauto Star (FR)   
Gwanako (FR)   
Poquelin (FR)   
Rivaliste (FR)   
Master Minded (FR)   
Citizen Vic (IRE)   
The Tother One (IRE)   
Sports Line (IRE)   
Poquelin (FR)

Above are the horses which he rode after Kauto won the GC in 2009. Most of them were no hopers and some of them were good ones past their best. None of the ones he failed on ever won at the festival susequently.

My opinion is that I think it would be fair to expect a jockey such as Walsh with his skill and ability which is far and away greater than the majority of his peers would have been able to have managed to have won on at least one of those, more to the point I think that the majority of race fans would at the start, given the list with all it's "no hopers" and "past their bests"  have expected him too and even more to the point I think that he would have expected to as well.

What does Nicholl's list of no hopers and past their bests look like?

Cant even see the point of stats like these. I see 5 years have become six for extra effect.Why not the nicholls/walsh chase stats for the last 10 years?

Put it another way.

After years three....four....would you not have backed a chaser ridden by Walsh on the basis of this ever lengthening statistic?

I wouldn't.