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I am more convinced than ever that ante post Cheltenham bets are only for very serious horse bettors who follow the game daily and have a great eye for a horse's form and a bit of luck about what race it will run in.
Casual horse enthusiasts like myself have almost no hope. Just wait until the day. You know which race your horse is in, you'll probably get better odds and you may even get a BOG bonus and extra places as well if on ew.
I had a few free bets from Hills over the last couple of months that I used on AP win only vouchers:
Champ Hurdle: The New One 3/1 was 10/3SP
Champ Hurdle: Hurricane Fly 8/1 same as SP. BF SP was 13/1
NH Chase: Wounded Warrior 10/1 ran in RSA instead
NH Chase: Broadway Buffalo 25/1 was 12/1 SP
RSA: Coneygree 8/1 ......we all know how that ended up
Gold Cup: Many Clouds 10/1 was 7/1 SP
Gold Cup: Smad Place 25/1 was 25/1 SP
Coral Cup: Zip Top 33/1 did not run after pulling up in Imperial Cup.
So two ended up beating SP on day and three didn't run in the race I backed them for. Only Broadway Buffalo shortened up enough in-running for any of my lays to be matched.
Just backing on day of race has to be the way forward for the vast majority of punters these days.
Casual horse enthusiasts like myself have almost no hope. Just wait until the day. You know which race your horse is in, you'll probably get better odds and you may even get a BOG bonus and extra places as well if on ew.
I had a few free bets from Hills over the last couple of months that I used on AP win only vouchers:
Champ Hurdle: The New One 3/1 was 10/3SP
Champ Hurdle: Hurricane Fly 8/1 same as SP. BF SP was 13/1
NH Chase: Wounded Warrior 10/1 ran in RSA instead
NH Chase: Broadway Buffalo 25/1 was 12/1 SP
RSA: Coneygree 8/1 ......we all know how that ended up
Gold Cup: Many Clouds 10/1 was 7/1 SP
Gold Cup: Smad Place 25/1 was 25/1 SP
Coral Cup: Zip Top 33/1 did not run after pulling up in Imperial Cup.
So two ended up beating SP on day and three didn't run in the race I backed them for. Only Broadway Buffalo shortened up enough in-running for any of my lays to be matched.
Just backing on day of race has to be the way forward for the vast majority of punters these days.
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Yeah but that's always been the case hasn't it?
Okay, it's a great ego (and bank balance) stroke to have something you've spotted ages before go in at 1/4 the odds on the day but my reaction to seeing people posting up the odds they've got now on a Faugheen, Vautour, Un De Sceaux treble at next years Festival makes me think they could get better ante-post odds on races this coming weekend.
It's like ' a 33/1 winner tomorrow still pays the same as a 33/1 winner in a years time.'
Okay, it's a great ego (and bank balance) stroke to have something you've spotted ages before go in at 1/4 the odds on the day but my reaction to seeing people posting up the odds they've got now on a Faugheen, Vautour, Un De Sceaux treble at next years Festival makes me think they could get better ante-post odds on races this coming weekend.
It's like ' a 33/1 winner tomorrow still pays the same as a 33/1 winner in a years time.'
After this year I think the real value is in identifying races which might cut up such as the Arkle (where small fields have been fairly common in recent years) and the the novice races. Anything AP has to be taken fairly early in the season, much of the time January 1st is about as late as you can play to make any real difference in your prices.
Figuring out the mind of Willie Mullins is becoming a skill all of its own for ante-post horse race betting at cheltenham.
Figuring out the mind of Willie Mullins is becoming a skill all of its own for ante-post horse race betting at cheltenham.
Ante-post is harder than a few years back when you could get much bigger prices on here in the weeks leading up to the big races but it's still an option for those who put in the work. The handicaps in particular can offer some excellent value in the month or so before Cheltenham - OK, he didn't win, but Ned Buntline was available at 10-1 with less than two weeks to go despite being AP's last Festival ride and being the most unexposed, well-treated horse in the field.
I also think people judge ante-post punts wrong in most cases - if you're getting 16-1 or 20-1 about a horse weeks in advance, you should be delighted to have that horse running for you at half the price on the day. But such an event still means said horse is overwhelmingly more likely to lose than win, so unless you really attack ante-post markets and have a stack running for you it can be hard to make returns. That doesn't mean than the individual bets are bad ones, though...
I also think people judge ante-post punts wrong in most cases - if you're getting 16-1 or 20-1 about a horse weeks in advance, you should be delighted to have that horse running for you at half the price on the day. But such an event still means said horse is overwhelmingly more likely to lose than win, so unless you really attack ante-post markets and have a stack running for you it can be hard to make returns. That doesn't mean than the individual bets are bad ones, though...
I'd flagged up Champagne James as one to be on. Didn't make the nov hcap but I switched to Kim Muir at 25/1 on the Monday with B365 for £25EW. Backed into 4/1 Fav on the day I was rubbing my hands with glee. B365 were offering a cash out of £170+. Nah, this looks the plot of all time I told myself, thinking how clever I was to have identified him. The factor I didn't bring into the equation was that Katie Walsh was going to be away with the fairies. Mare of a ride from an otherwise top amateur. Live and learn.
Similar stories here. I made a concious decision to get less involved AP this season, but still found myself with 62pts invested on Tuesday morning, of which 16pts were already dead. It's a long way back from there. Of the remainder most could be backed at a broadly similar price to that I had taken weeks in advance, in fact of the three AP winners that I had, only one was returned shorter on the day, the other two were marginally bigger prices.
So next season, I absolutely promise that no matter how good that 'down the field' performance in the pertemps qualifier looks, I will not be getting involved.
So next season, I absolutely promise that no matter how good that 'down the field' performance in the pertemps qualifier looks, I will not be getting involved.
agree with the OP, most of the value is on the day
people underestimate the risk of a horse not running
so your A/P price is the probability of winning given the probability that the horse runs
the 'given' bit is a big big big 5 letter word
people underestimate the risk of a horse not running
so your A/P price is the probability of winning given the probability that the horse runs
the 'given' bit is a big big big 5 letter word
Agree with Roger's first comment, a lot of ante-post is about ego and also the urge to strike a bet.
I had a shocking return from ante-post bets this season compared to recent seasons and am considering just binning it altogether. Prices are just getting more and more cramped each season. Bookies just have no appetite to get involved in it so offer **** prices.
I had a shocking return from ante-post bets this season compared to recent seasons and am considering just binning it altogether. Prices are just getting more and more cramped each season. Bookies just have no appetite to get involved in it so offer **** prices.
Yep, it's that urge to have the bet that gets me Sint. I tend not to crow too much about winners anyway, so it's not really an ego thing, although I am quietly smug with myself when I get one right - few and far between though.
I can't believe there are people wanting to have a ton on Faugheen at 7/4 fully a year before the event. Boggles the mind, you surely can't be that bothered about £175 that you'd be prepared to tie up £100 for that long? Fair enough, you spot one that you think is a wrong price at around 40s on here and have a dabble, but 7/4?
That said, I can see why people are laying it. What's the worse that can happen, it destroys everything in it's path and pitches up in 12 months time in A1 nick? You'd be able to trade out at 1.8 day of race, what've you really lost?
I can't believe there are people wanting to have a ton on Faugheen at 7/4 fully a year before the event. Boggles the mind, you surely can't be that bothered about £175 that you'd be prepared to tie up £100 for that long? Fair enough, you spot one that you think is a wrong price at around 40s on here and have a dabble, but 7/4?
That said, I can see why people are laying it. What's the worse that can happen, it destroys everything in it's path and pitches up in 12 months time in A1 nick? You'd be able to trade out at 1.8 day of race, what've you really lost?
As I posted on the other thread, antepost betting is one of my favourite things about Cheltenham... I simply cant imagine turning up without my spreadsheet printed off with a list of bets... some down the pan already and some looking really juicy. But I agree with Sint... seriously considering binning it off this year, as the the prices quoted for next year are absolutely woeful already. The fact we have had a couple of seasons where Mullins hotpots have been favourites for the majority of the season, then gone on to win clearly has the bookies running scared.
When you consider the offers and extra places that are offered on the day now, its starting to look less and less attractive.
When you consider the offers and extra places that are offered on the day now, its starting to look less and less attractive.
Same here CCM, 90% of my bets are antepost, and it's worked well for me over the past three or four years.
I do think there is some good value in the novice races once we get to November time. These are the races were if you know of a good one, these will shorten the most. The likes of the Champion Chase, Champion Hurdle etc will be full of well established horses, who's prices won't change too much.
However, with the novices, it only takes one big run from a relatively unknown one to slash in price. Around December you could get between 8 and 10's on Douvan, Don Poli was a similar price at the end of December etc. For every one of those, there's a Tell Us More or Alvisio Ville, but its the skill, and a big slice of luck, on picking the right one to be one.
For me, because of the bigger prices, it means staking smaller.
I wouldn't usually back in a Champion Chase, Ryanair, World Hurdle etc pre Christmas, but I'd like to be on one or two in the Supreme, Neptune, Arkle and RSA - hence my only bet so far being No More Heroes.
I do think there is some good value in the novice races once we get to November time. These are the races were if you know of a good one, these will shorten the most. The likes of the Champion Chase, Champion Hurdle etc will be full of well established horses, who's prices won't change too much.
However, with the novices, it only takes one big run from a relatively unknown one to slash in price. Around December you could get between 8 and 10's on Douvan, Don Poli was a similar price at the end of December etc. For every one of those, there's a Tell Us More or Alvisio Ville, but its the skill, and a big slice of luck, on picking the right one to be one.
For me, because of the bigger prices, it means staking smaller.
I wouldn't usually back in a Champion Chase, Ryanair, World Hurdle etc pre Christmas, but I'd like to be on one or two in the Supreme, Neptune, Arkle and RSA - hence my only bet so far being No More Heroes.
I did not have any A/P bets going into this years meeting but looking at that 2014 thread there were many of us that had spotted stars for this years meeting. Having had a look at the markets for next year though there does not seem to be anything appealing unless I want to get Don Poli at 6-1 and I'm not sure I do.
Yes agree entirely with that mate... Powder dry until the Autumn then!
Thanks for all replies and some interesting discussion. For me it is just too tough. I do not watch the racing enough to be able to form decent opinions, never mind be able to work out which race Mullins and others are planning to go for. My plan for next year will be not to get tempted by any AP action at all and just start betting on Tues at BOG with the various offers.
Just wait till you start getting into December and the top Irish meetings come thick and fast and the next Mullins wonderhorse is on the lists at 12/1......
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