Cheltenham Festival
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more than ever it will be a case of guessing which WPM superstar runs in which race - the preview night organisers will be rubbing their hands with glee!! no doubt vautour was the most visually impressive but my fav is still UDS and he looks the QM winner for me...this year saw the changing of the guard in all the championship races, not a bad thing, keeps it fresh, but i think many of this years winners will be back next time round
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Though Vautour was very impressive I think Don Poli will be the better stayer, however I was thinking this before Coneygree's fantastic performance today.
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proves last years gold cup was rubbish
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Been a good festival I think.A few arguments have been well and truly settled.
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The two I'm interested in for next year are No More Heroes for the RSA and Hargam for the Champion Hurdle.
May back NMH at 14's as a big of fun, nothing major. They've always said he is a chaser in the making, and weren't too bothered about what he did this year. Close up in the Albert Bartlett, and had the class to beat the Supreme runner up earlier in the year. Looks every inch a chaser, and it'll take a good one to beat him in the RSA. Hargam was probably most inconvenienced by the soft ground in the Triumph, and on "normal" Champion Hurdle ground, I think he could be a monster. With JP having him, MTOY and Jezki, at least one of them will have to go chasing, so wouldn't back Hargam for anything, but I think he'll be a big player in a CH next year. |
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* as a bit of fun.
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i thought the 2 to take out of friday, who were inconvenienced by the ground, were hargam and holywell
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I didn't back Djakadam but thought his performance as a 6 year old was superb. Massive potential, will surely improve and Coneygree will be well within his sights I would've thought.
Great Gold Cup in prospect for next year |
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Not a great deal interests me so far because of Mullins horses switching here there and everywhere. But one who is only going one route will be Djakaadam thought he ran a superb race 16s for next year is my only play so far
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Think Aintree is going to be interesting if the ground is Good.
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Can only suspect that if we ran all Friday's races on Thursday, we would have had different results. That rain took it's effect on the Friday. Top 3 well clear in the Gold Cup of the 4th, the rest out with the washing.
Agree for such a young horse, Djackadam ran some race. |
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Long Run won it as a 6 yo and he wasn't the greatest.
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Fair Point CheltenhamRoar. These French breds struggle to sometimes last beyond a year or so at the top and seem to regress quickly
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Be slightly concerned at how hard a race Djackadam had given his age. I will be waiting until he backs it up before diving in for next years gold cup.
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In reply to wellchief, do you think one of My Tent or Yours, Jezki or Hargam will go chasing? Kitten Rock looks a decent Arkle horse for JP next year and he has Alvisio Ville too.
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I hope Champagne Fever doesn't get forgotten about next year ... he has a fair bit of potential but I hope his chance doesn't pass him by with the likes of Un De Sceaux, Don Poli, Djakadam and Vautour up and coming. Strong possibility he could end up as a two and a half horse next year - interesting to see if he runs in the Melling Chase.
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I'll be against faugheen at this stage for next years CH, for all the euphoria of the win I think there's definitely evidence to suggest he isn't quite the machine (in terms of utter dominance for years to come) that he is generally regarded as, I even think the way he was ridden suggested that there was a real concern from connections about how the race would pan out.
A horse that still remains a dark horse through indifferent performances and sickness but one I'm utterly convinced will show to be top class is Carraig Mor....and coneygrees win only goes to encourage me, because even if it was only early doors and as brief as it was, he remains the only horse this season to have coneygree playing second fiddle and even more so now than ever I wished CM had managed to stand up that day  here's hoping for next year. |
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SYT I think MTOY will go chasing this year too.
Henderson admitted that they were schooling him over fences before he was injured. If I remember correctly there was talk of whoever came second in last years CH out of Jezki and MTOY would go chasing. That'd leave two in the CH, probably 2 in the Arkle and 1 moving up to the JLT. As a long term bet I like Hargam but a lot of bookies haven't priced him up which is making think twice. |
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thought the 2 to take out of friday, who were inconvenienced by the ground, were hargam and holywell
Agree with Holywell too. I was a non believer before the Gold Cup, I didn't get what all the fuss was about, but he proved to me that he is top drawer when not in a novice chase or a handicap. Think he has a big chance next year if he gets his ground. |
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In general terms, you'd have to fear for the home team in the Championship events next year - Ireland won all six of the Grade 1 novice events and filled 14 of the 18 places.
The flip side of that coin was the Henderson 1-2-3 in the Triumph, no Irish horse better than 9th in the Fred Winter and, most perversely of all, the GB 1-2-3-4 in the Bumper. So could be some emerging champion hurdle or novice hurdle contenders next year for UK but it's hard to see anything other than Irish (and Mullins) dominance continuing,especially after Ricci's annual shopping spree in France. Mullins 8 winners was a great achievement and I also think he was a class act in his dealings with the media all week (s'pose some might site the Champagne Fever episode as evidence to the contrary) but I can't think that one stable dominating is great for the overall wellbeing of the game in the long term. I need to reflect on the races before highlighting horses for next year but it strikes me that Warren Greatrex will have more festival winners (overall stable form still not great so getting Cole Harden to perform like that was a fantastic effort) - also Robert Stephens will get his mane on the scoreboard soon enough - Modus ran brilliantly and although Beltor was disappointing at face value, I think there will be other days for him. |
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think the bumper has had its day at chelt,i think the days od superstars appearing in it are on the wane,mullins had 8 in it none made the 1st 10 i think,hendo on record as not liking the race,nichols doesnt seemed fussed about it,horses plodding round in deep winter ground then expected to perform in a fast run good spring ground race ,doesnt seem right,think you,ll see the top trainers keeping their better horses away from it in future
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I love to have a punt on the early Ante Post markets, for the Festival, and thank god I do, as tis years successes were entirely down to last years AP Bets (Douvan 12s, Faugheen 7s and Don Poli 12s).
The Mullins domination and guessing games, will become cloudier with so many top horses running next year (Douvan, Arctic Fire and Faugheen in the Champion?) (UDS, Champagne Fever and Vautour in Queen Mum) OR (Vautor, Don Poli, Djakadam in the Gold Cup). Therefore at the current prices the only bet I can see worthy having is a longshot on GODS OWN at 33/1 for the Champion Chase. He has the same RPR (1lb higher) than Dodging Bullets had a year ago, and if Vautour does head for longer trips (King George, Ryanair, Gold Cup) then the main aim would be to try and beat UDS. To my mind Gods Own can improve again, firstly by avoiding jumping a little right-handed, and secondly he hadresults suggesting good ground was preferable, which could see him again missing a lump of mid-season (after the Tingle Creek), and avoiding heavier ground battles. There was a second or two coming up the straight on Tuesday when it looked like Gods Own was matching UDS and maybe about to take over the lead, UDS put the straight in no uncertain terms, and Gods Own flattened out a little on the last 100 yards or so. But given the old guard have gone in this event, and UDS matched Dodging Bullets RPR rating in a Novice victory over Gods Own then 33s seems a fair price. At the moment I cant see great value elsewhere. |
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If I was looking to take UDS on in the QMCC at this moment in time Josses Hill looks like a great E/w bet . Personally I thought he hadn't shown enough to take part in the arkle, but I was impressed by how close he got to UDS even with a couple of dodgy jumps. So if he can improve his jumping he could be a decent bet. Of course UDS could improve too, but 25s seems like a fair price.
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after a stop start season and poor trainer form i was a complete non believer in hollywell,he was winter fav last year and in the hope of a full season behind him ,he,ll be my monthly tenner ew from now till next years chelt at 16,s
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i agree deeping.. v little value anywhere, after last fez, i had Faugheen at 32.50 for CH! but really struggling to see value anywhere.
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