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Oh god no, I've started fancying one in the County Hurlde

BarryM

13 Mar 15 12:44

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Date Joined: 25 Jan 02

| Topic/replies: 563 | Blogger: BarryM's blog

I never bet in these kind of races, but I'm drawn to Violet Dancer. Thought it won very well in the Betfair. It's up 9lb, which doesn't seem overly harsh. Actival was 3rd there, well beaten, and then 3rd beaten under a length from 4lb higher in the Koral Hurdle.
Violet Dancer is a 5yo, the Betfair was a career best, no obvious reason he couldn't progress a bit further.
Stiffer track might be an issue but I don't think he has to make it. Going is similar to last time.

He's 25-1 and seemingly completely ignored, I don't understand it.
Someone talk me out of it!!!

Pause • Switch to Standard View Oh god no, I've started fancying one...

Report ImSoLuckyLucky! • March 13, 2015 11:48 AM GMT

Got an uncontested lead in the bf

End of

Report Glossy • March 13, 2015 11:54 AM GMT

It was one I was looking at earlier.

I agree that it doesn't look unfairly treated on the face of it - my concern is that it's fairly exposed now and thus comes out quite poorly on some particularly strong trends. For example, the last 10 winners of the race have all carried 11st 1 or less. Considering there are some fairly talented, unexposed horses towards the bottom of the weights, I chose to swerve it on balance. Could feasibly run into a place though.

Report SOULDANCER • March 13, 2015 12:08 PM GMT

trainer thinks it's improved since betfair, 25's looks big

Report Ibrahima Sonko • March 13, 2015 12:43 PM GMT

Certainly likes the ground and hopefully will be handy, i had little bit on ew.

Report sageform • March 13, 2015 12:59 PM GMT

You could say the same about Ebony express whi is only penalised 5lb for the Imperial Cup. Plenty of horses have run well less than a week after winning so he is also a decent place play.