Cheltenham Festival
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I can't make a decision, simple as that. Normally I can come up with one, even if it's wrong, but this year it's like every horse has a chance. Therefore, I'm going to talk myself into a selection on this thread.
How it could be run: Coneygree bowling along happily in front perhaps to the last when the hill will stop him (it might not). Therefore it may be won by something coming way off the pace, which means stamina is a premium couple with a bit of class or a liking for the hill.
Challenging the leader and in contention 2 out: 2nd group (staying on): Lord Windermere, Bobs Worth, Holywell, Sam Winner
Many Clouds, Djakadam, Carlingford Lough, Road To Riches, Silviniaco Conti, On His Own
3rd group (outpaced or held up or hit a few or just not quick enough or hating the course): The Giant Bolster, Smad Place, Houblon Des Obeaux, Boston Bob
4th group (out the back, never going, pulling up, hating the whole occasion, jumping terrible or just plain rubbish): River Choice, Home Farm
Struggling at the last: Coneygree (pace catches up with him), Djakadam (a year too early), Carlingford Lough (out of gas), Road To Riches (out of gas), Silviniaco Conti (dislike of course takes it toll), On His Own (not quite good enough), Bobs Worth (done his best and may have more but he's just had enough)
Leaving Many Clouds in front with Lord Windermere a length behind. The camera man will concentrate on those two with Holywell and Sam Winner staying up with the pace but making no impression.
But what's that finishing like a train and picking them all off as they start to tread water? SMAD PLACE! And who's that with him? THE GIANT BOLSTER!
At the finish:
1. Smad Place (just has the younger legs) wins by a head
2. The Giant Bolster, a length ahead of
3. Many Clouds, valiant effort but the pace has drawn his sting, 2 lengths back to
4. Lord Windermere, champions don't give in
5. Holywell
6. Sam Winner
7. Silviniaco Conti
Smad Place it is. If Coneygree falls early then you can scrap all the above and go for ROAD TO RICHES and CARLINGFORD LOUGH
Great race in prospect. Decision made. Got to be in it to win it.
How it could be run: Coneygree bowling along happily in front perhaps to the last when the hill will stop him (it might not). Therefore it may be won by something coming way off the pace, which means stamina is a premium couple with a bit of class or a liking for the hill.
Challenging the leader and in contention 2 out: 2nd group (staying on): Lord Windermere, Bobs Worth, Holywell, Sam Winner
Many Clouds, Djakadam, Carlingford Lough, Road To Riches, Silviniaco Conti, On His Own
3rd group (outpaced or held up or hit a few or just not quick enough or hating the course): The Giant Bolster, Smad Place, Houblon Des Obeaux, Boston Bob
4th group (out the back, never going, pulling up, hating the whole occasion, jumping terrible or just plain rubbish): River Choice, Home Farm
Struggling at the last: Coneygree (pace catches up with him), Djakadam (a year too early), Carlingford Lough (out of gas), Road To Riches (out of gas), Silviniaco Conti (dislike of course takes it toll), On His Own (not quite good enough), Bobs Worth (done his best and may have more but he's just had enough)
Leaving Many Clouds in front with Lord Windermere a length behind. The camera man will concentrate on those two with Holywell and Sam Winner staying up with the pace but making no impression.
But what's that finishing like a train and picking them all off as they start to tread water? SMAD PLACE! And who's that with him? THE GIANT BOLSTER!
At the finish:
1. Smad Place (just has the younger legs) wins by a head
2. The Giant Bolster, a length ahead of
3. Many Clouds, valiant effort but the pace has drawn his sting, 2 lengths back to
4. Lord Windermere, champions don't give in
5. Holywell
6. Sam Winner
7. Silviniaco Conti
Smad Place it is. If Coneygree falls early then you can scrap all the above and go for ROAD TO RICHES and CARLINGFORD LOUGH
Great race in prospect. Decision made. Got to be in it to win it.
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The problem with Smad Place is that he just hasn't won enough. How can you win a Gold Cup if you have only won 2 chases, the best of which being a £7k Novice affair at Newbury? Don't get me wrong I have considered him myself but think he's more likely place material. I just don't think Giant Bolster is good enough. Many Clouds fits the sort of profile I want, as does Coneygree. I respect Lord Windermere, but worry that no-one has defended their crown since Best Mate. Holywell might find the ground has gone by the time he wakes up. Sam Winner is a possible, and Silviniaco Conti has to be respected, but I'm looking elsewhere. I can't have Djakadam for this, but Carlingford Lough or Road to Riches could easily win. It's Many Clouds or Coneygree for me. I've also taken a bit of Houblon Des Obeaux at 66/1 in case it turns into a slog.
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Lord Windermere had only won 2 chases before his win last year MC.
You're right about The Giant Bolster, but if the pace is really strong then he'll be staying on for sure when others have cried enough. Won't quite get there IMO, but he'll still be there nevertheless. |
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The most common factors shared by the majority of Gold Cup winners:-
Won a Grade 1 chase at 3+ miles Placed at least at a previous Festival Less than 11 yo Dosage index of DP greater than 8, DI below 0.75, CD below -0.1 Only Bobs Worth and Lord Windermere fit all these tests just saying |