Cheltenham Festival
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Inspired by this Cheltenham Forum and particularly JOCI's thread, I have been analysing the last 10 years winners of Festival races, firstly to see how my own Ante Post choices would fair compared with previous winners, based on the strongest stats for each race that I could find (age, days since run, winning form, winning trips etc etc), and applying a filter where more recent years trends get a little more points than 7, 8, 9, 10 years ago.
This means that if a winning trend changes, then its picked up quicker than a flat 10 years analysis.
I have compared findings with JOCI and a lot of the analysis top rated are similar, and some with different gaps in the scores.
Continuing into Day 4 Top Trend Scorers on this thread all on Monday 9th, March 2015, so anyone viewing can see who has the top PROFILE's compared with past winners.
Here's hoping the work is worth it and it throws some names into the equation that I can cheer home from the stands this week.
Wishing you a successful week
This means that if a winning trend changes, then its picked up quicker than a flat 10 years analysis.
I have compared findings with JOCI and a lot of the analysis top rated are similar, and some with different gaps in the scores.
Continuing into Day 4 Top Trend Scorers on this thread all on Monday 9th, March 2015, so anyone viewing can see who has the top PROFILE's compared with past winners.
Here's hoping the work is worth it and it throws some names into the equation that I can cheer home from the stands this week.
Wishing you a successful week
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TRIUMPH HURDLE - RACE 1
TOP RATED PEACE AND CO 100.00% TOP RATED HARGAM 100.00% THIRD TOP PETITE PARISSIENE 92.70% FOURTH TOP BELTOR 90.00% FIFTH TOP TOP NOTCH 89.50% 87.1% BAR A fair few with near perfect winners profiles, with Nicky Henderson clocking up two top rated for the first time in my analysis. All of the top picks in the betting are here, it looks like they could be ones to focus on here. |
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COUNTY HURDLE - RACE 2
TOP RATED PRINCELY CONN 100.00% SECOND TOP ARZAL 97.40% SECOND TOP ASO 97.40% SECOND TOP WICKLOW BRAVE 97.40% BAR 93.40% I love handicap hurdles, and particularly the 2M ones, and this race throws up an irish horse with a perfect profile, bought my JP McManus at the start of the season, after he showed promise, and one who AP McCoy may get on, in his last festival day in the saddle. I have studied the videos of his races, and have backed him NRNB at 33/1. What is life without hope, hey! |
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ALBERT BARTLETT NOVICE HURDLE - RACE 3
TOP RATED BLAKLION 100.00% TOP RATED MARTELLO TOWER 100.00% THIRD TOP DEFINITELY RED 92.40% THIRD TOP OUTLANDER 92.40% BAR 89.90% Early analysis here is that Martello Tower and Blaklion are lost likely runners, Definitely Red may also run but Outlander would take in the Neptune. My choice is Martello Tower, the owner and trainer both rate this horse a lot, though I wouldn't crab Blaklion's chances too over this trip on good ground. They are currently 10/1 and 14/1 shots. |
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GOLD CUP - RACE 4
TOP RATED ROAD TO RICHES 93.70% SECOND TOP CARLINGFORD LOUGH 85.40% THIRD TOP HOLYWELL 81.00% FOURTH TOP MANY CLOUDS 80.80% BAR 79.40% Rated this a month or so ago and Road to Riches was miles clear on winners profiles. Carlingford Lough ate inroads into this by winning well on his latest start. I have backed RTR a month ago, though I notice he is weakening in the markets now, which is a little concerning, if I covered my bet it would be with AP and Carlingford Lough. |
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FOXHUNTERS CHASE - RACE 5
TOP RATED CHOSEN MILAN 85.10% SECOND TOP ON THE FRINGE 82.60% THIRD TOP PAINT THE CLOUDS 81.90% FOURTH TOP CARSONSTOWN BOY 75.40% BAR 74.30% The only mare, and she is top rated, and a 33/1 shot, a very interesting one. After her, are a couple of the favourites, ones from GB and one from Ireland. So its a choice here, one of the favs, or each-way on the longshot. |
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MARTIN PIPE CONDITIONALS HURDLE - RACE 6
TOP RATED SORT IT OUT 91.70% SECOND TOP DANEKING 88.30% THIRD TOP GOODWOOD MIRAGE 86.60% FOURTH TOP SOUTHFIELD VIC 85.00% FIFTH TOP NOBLE ENDEAVOUR 83.40% SIXTH TOP WAXIES DARGLE 81.70% SEVENTH TOP AMORE ALATO 81.60% BAR 78.40% A race where ne of the 11 trends cannot be analysed until the final decs. The trend is that only horses ridden by those with a MAXIMUM 3lb claim have won the race in its 6 year history. IE: the more accomplished jockeys come to the fore in the race. For now, that stat wouldn't stop Sort It out or Daneking from being near the top of the tree, and nothing could come from outside of the top 7 to beat their profile, if those two line up even with a 7lb claimer. Looking at the race, beforehand, I wanted to be with NOBLE ENDEAVOR, and he is my bet, for Gigginstown Stud and Gordon Elliott (Giggys have won this with Sir Des Champs and Don Poli in recent times). Sort It Out has 100% Stats if he is ridden by a 0lb-3lb claimer, and is improving rapidly. Daneking's recent form looks weak, but he is an ex-flat horse who loves quicker ground and Willie Mullins wouldnt travel him if he didn't think he had a change (and SDS and DP were his Giggys runners that won this race). Hope the stats have narrowed the field of well over 100 decs down, for you. |
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A P MCCOY GRAND ANNUAL - RACE 7
TOP RATED DRESDEN 92.10% TOP RATED GRUMETI 92.10% THIRD TOP MY BROTHER SYLVEST 86.90% THIRD TOP FESTIVE AFFAIR 86.90% BAR 86.60% Mega number of entries, and I still have a tear in my eye from when Ned Buntline got done on the line, last year. I will be backing Ned again this year, the profiles have a fair few close to the top, but a couple a little clear in Dresden (Henry Oliver) and Grumeti (Alan King) both at long odds. Best of luck to you all across all four days. Will be there from start to finish, and on the forum through the days, and I hope the punters have a great festival, particularly the forumites. |
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Final Decs in for Final Day, that usually means big changes in the Grand Annual, County and Martin Pipe race.
Day three had a number of placed horses, but a winner blowout, so heres hoping for better outcomes for the "Profile" Horses tomorrow. RACE 1 TOP RATED PEACE AND CO 100.00% TOP RATED HARGAM 100.00% TOP RATED BELTOR 100.00% FOURTH TOP TOP NOTCH 89.50% BAR 87.10% RACE 2 TOP RATED BLAKLION 100.00% TOP RATED MARTELLO TOWER 100.00% THIRD TOP DEFINITELY RED 92.40% FOURTH TOP NO MORE HEROES 89.90% BAR 86.60% RACE 3 TOP RATED SORT IT OUT 100.00% SECOND TOP MINELLA PRESENT 97.40% THIRD TOP FORCED FAMILY FUN 90.80% FOURTH TOP PRINCELY CONN 88.40% BAR 85.80% [u]RACE 4 [/u]TOP RATED ROAD TO RICHES 93.70% SECOND TOP CARLINGFORD LOUGH 85.40% THIRD TOP HOLYWELL 81.00% FOURTH TOP MANY CLOUDS 80.80% BAR 79.40% RACE 5 TOP RATED CHOSEN MILAN 85.10% SECOND TOP ON THE FRINGE 82.60% THIRD TOP PAINT THE CLOUDS81.90% FOURTH TOP CARSONSTOWN BOY 75.40% BAR 74.30% RACE 6 TOP RATED NOBLE ENDEAVOUR 93.30% SECOND TOP MACNICHOLSON 90.00% THIRD TOP ROI DU FRANS 86.90% BAR 79.80% RACE 7 TOP RATED DRESDEN 92.10% TOP RATED GRUMETI 92.10% THIRD TOP MY BROTHER SYLVEST 86.90% THIRD TOP FESTIVEAFFAIR 86.90% BAR 86.60% |
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Chosen Milan in the Foxhunters is very interesting, a massive price on here. I was thinking of having a few quid on before I saw this, now I'm definitely having a dabble!
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