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Inspired by this Cheltenham Forum and particularly JOCI's thread, I have been analysing the last 10 years winners of Festival races, firstly to see how my own Ante Post choices would fair compared with previous winners, based on the strongest stats for each race that I could find (age, days since run, winning form, winning trips etc etc), and applying a filter where more recent years trends get a little more points than 7, 8, 9, 10 years ago.
This means that if a winning trend changes, then its picked up quicker than a flat 10 years analysis.
I have compared findings with JOCI and a lot of the analysis top rated are similar, and some with different gaps in the scores.
Continuing into Day 3 Top Trend Scorers on this thread all on Monday 9th, March 2015, so anyone viewing can see who has the top PROFILE's compared with past winners.
Here's hoping the work is worth it and it throws some names into the equation that I can cheer home from the stands this week.
Wishing you a successful week
This means that if a winning trend changes, then its picked up quicker than a flat 10 years analysis.
I have compared findings with JOCI and a lot of the analysis top rated are similar, and some with different gaps in the scores.
Continuing into Day 3 Top Trend Scorers on this thread all on Monday 9th, March 2015, so anyone viewing can see who has the top PROFILE's compared with past winners.
Here's hoping the work is worth it and it throws some names into the equation that I can cheer home from the stands this week.
Wishing you a successful week
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JLT NOVICES CHASE - RACE 1
Left alone, this year, as it has only 4 years trends to compare. I will wait until I have at least 6 years evidence before producing profiles.
Left alone, this year, as it has only 4 years trends to compare. I will wait until I have at least 6 years evidence before producing profiles.
PERTEMPS NETWORK FINAL - RACE 2
TOP RATED KATKEAU 100.00%
TOP RATED HANZADAN 100.00%
TOP RATED THE TOURAD MAN 100.00%
TOP RATED MILAN BOUND 100.00%
TOP RATED MORITO DU BERLAIS 100.00%
BAR 94.10%
A blizzard of 100% profile options here, including in Katkeau a lightly raced Pipe runner in a handicap, two Alan King runners (one with a quality 3lb claimer on), a Jonjo and a Nicholls choice. What a plethora of top trainers for the Festival all turning up with full profiles for their horses.
I was an Edeymi fan, now I am going to have to video and form study after final decs to check out the 5 100%ers and Edeymi before making my final choices.
TOP RATED KATKEAU 100.00%
TOP RATED HANZADAN 100.00%
TOP RATED THE TOURAD MAN 100.00%
TOP RATED MILAN BOUND 100.00%
TOP RATED MORITO DU BERLAIS 100.00%
BAR 94.10%
A blizzard of 100% profile options here, including in Katkeau a lightly raced Pipe runner in a handicap, two Alan King runners (one with a quality 3lb claimer on), a Jonjo and a Nicholls choice. What a plethora of top trainers for the Festival all turning up with full profiles for their horses.
I was an Edeymi fan, now I am going to have to video and form study after final decs to check out the 5 100%ers and Edeymi before making my final choices.
RYANAIR CHASE - RACE 3
TOP RATED CHAMPAGNE FEVER 94.50%
SECOND TOP DON COSSACK 87.10%
THIRD TOP WISHFUL THINKING 77.30%
FOURTH TOP JOHNS SPIRIT 77.30%
BAR 74.40%
9 trends, and with Champagne Fever top now of this and the Champion Chase.
If he runs on Wednesday then Don Cossack the 7/2 fav comes out top of the shop here, and by some way.
TOP RATED CHAMPAGNE FEVER 94.50%
SECOND TOP DON COSSACK 87.10%
THIRD TOP WISHFUL THINKING 77.30%
FOURTH TOP JOHNS SPIRIT 77.30%
BAR 74.40%
9 trends, and with Champagne Fever top now of this and the Champion Chase.
If he runs on Wednesday then Don Cossack the 7/2 fav comes out top of the shop here, and by some way.
WORLD HURDLE - RACE 4
TOP RATED SAPHIR DU RHEU 91.60%
SECOND TOP LIEUTENANT COLONEL 84.80%
THIRD TOP ANNIE POWER 65.70%
FOURTH TOP WHISPER 65.00%
BAR 62.50%
Great profile split here, with Saphir Du Rheu clear of Lieutenant Colonel who is miles clear of the third. Its this sort of profile that throws up potential betting opportunities for stats players.
TOP RATED SAPHIR DU RHEU 91.60%
SECOND TOP LIEUTENANT COLONEL 84.80%
THIRD TOP ANNIE POWER 65.70%
FOURTH TOP WHISPER 65.00%
BAR 62.50%
Great profile split here, with Saphir Du Rheu clear of Lieutenant Colonel who is miles clear of the third. Its this sort of profile that throws up potential betting opportunities for stats players.
BROWN ADVISORY and MERRIEBELLE STABLE PLATE - RACE 5
TOP RATED BALLY LEGEND 100.00%
SECOND TOP BIG WATER 99.70%
SECOND TOP BOBCAT BILLY 99.70%
FOURTH TOP COLD MARCH 89.90%
BAR 88.00%
Three almost perfect prior winners profiles here, all trained in GB, and there is a trend for a home runner to win this race. Would check the videos on the top three and make a selection from there if they all pass through final decs.
TOP RATED BALLY LEGEND 100.00%
SECOND TOP BIG WATER 99.70%
SECOND TOP BOBCAT BILLY 99.70%
FOURTH TOP COLD MARCH 89.90%
BAR 88.00%
Three almost perfect prior winners profiles here, all trained in GB, and there is a trend for a home runner to win this race. Would check the videos on the top three and make a selection from there if they all pass through final decs.
FULKE WALWYN KIM MUIR CHASE (AMATEURS) - RACE 6
TOP RATED BROADWAY BUFFALO 100.00%
SECOND TOP INDIAN CASTLE 98.60%
THIRD TOP GEVREY CHAMBERTAIN 94.80%
THIRD TOP LAMB OR COD 94.80%
FIFTH THE OULD LAD 94.20%
BAR 90.10%
Another really interesting selection on winners profiles, with David Pipe having two nearly perfect profiles for Broadway Buffalo (perfect), and Gevry Chamberatin (appears with perfect profile for Day 1 race).
Philip Hobbs, Ian Williams and Tom George have the other profile picks, so its another home based group, to thwart the Irish.
TOP RATED BROADWAY BUFFALO 100.00%
SECOND TOP INDIAN CASTLE 98.60%
THIRD TOP GEVREY CHAMBERTAIN 94.80%
THIRD TOP LAMB OR COD 94.80%
FIFTH THE OULD LAD 94.20%
BAR 90.10%
Another really interesting selection on winners profiles, with David Pipe having two nearly perfect profiles for Broadway Buffalo (perfect), and Gevry Chamberatin (appears with perfect profile for Day 1 race).
Philip Hobbs, Ian Williams and Tom George have the other profile picks, so its another home based group, to thwart the Irish.
UPDATE AFTER FINAL DECS FOR DAY 3
NO SELECTIONS FOR RACE 1 - STATS ONLY FOR 4 YEAR.
RACE 2 - PERTEMPS HURDLE
TOP RATED KATKEAU 100.00%
TOP RATED THE TOURAD MAN 100.00%
THIRD TATED UNIQUE DE COTTE 94.10%
FOURTH RATED PECKHAMECHO 93.80%
FOURTH RATED REGAL ENCORE 93.80%
BAR 94.10%
A couple that have all 12 profile stats of prior winners, makes this interesting.
RACE 3 - RYANAIR CHASE
TOP RATED DON COSSACK 87.10%
SECOND TOP MA FILLEULLE 81.60%
THIRD TOP WISHFUL THINKING 77.30%
FOURTH TOP JOHNS SPIRIT 77.30%
BAR 74.40%
Don Cossack and Ma Filleulle head the profiles here, and give two good shots at the winner.
[u]RACE 4 -WORLD HURDLE[/u]
TOP RATED SAPHIR DU RHEU 91.60%
SECOND TOP LIEUTENANT COLONEL 84.80%
THIRD TOP WHISPER 65.70%
FOURTH TOP ZARKANDAR 62.10%
BAR 53.40%
Big spread of profiles and only two that get close to prior winners stats. Hopefully two goo shots at getting the winner.
RACE 5 - BROWNE ADVISORY PLATE
TOP RATED BALLY LEGEND 100.00%
SECOND TOP BOBCAT BILLY 99.70%
SECOND TOP KLEPHT 88.00%
FOURTH TOP KINGS LAND 88.00%
BAR 87.70%
Again, two clear of the rest, and at massive, each way odds.
RACE 6 - KIM MUIR
TOP RATED THE OULD LAD 94.20%
TOP RATED SIXTY SOMETHING 94.20%
THIRD TOP CLONDAW KNIGHT 90.10%
THIRD TOP JUST A PAR 90.10%
BAR 87.20%
Much tighter than the other races. I like The Ould Lad's profile here, but the other three are close up on profiles.
All the best for Day 3.
NO SELECTIONS FOR RACE 1 - STATS ONLY FOR 4 YEAR.
RACE 2 - PERTEMPS HURDLE
TOP RATED KATKEAU 100.00%
TOP RATED THE TOURAD MAN 100.00%
THIRD TATED UNIQUE DE COTTE 94.10%
FOURTH RATED PECKHAMECHO 93.80%
FOURTH RATED REGAL ENCORE 93.80%
BAR 94.10%
A couple that have all 12 profile stats of prior winners, makes this interesting.
RACE 3 - RYANAIR CHASE
TOP RATED DON COSSACK 87.10%
SECOND TOP MA FILLEULLE 81.60%
THIRD TOP WISHFUL THINKING 77.30%
FOURTH TOP JOHNS SPIRIT 77.30%
BAR 74.40%
Don Cossack and Ma Filleulle head the profiles here, and give two good shots at the winner.
[u]RACE 4 -WORLD HURDLE[/u]
TOP RATED SAPHIR DU RHEU 91.60%
SECOND TOP LIEUTENANT COLONEL 84.80%
THIRD TOP WHISPER 65.70%
FOURTH TOP ZARKANDAR 62.10%
BAR 53.40%
Big spread of profiles and only two that get close to prior winners stats. Hopefully two goo shots at getting the winner.
RACE 5 - BROWNE ADVISORY PLATE
TOP RATED BALLY LEGEND 100.00%
SECOND TOP BOBCAT BILLY 99.70%
SECOND TOP KLEPHT 88.00%
FOURTH TOP KINGS LAND 88.00%
BAR 87.70%
Again, two clear of the rest, and at massive, each way odds.
RACE 6 - KIM MUIR
TOP RATED THE OULD LAD 94.20%
TOP RATED SIXTY SOMETHING 94.20%
THIRD TOP CLONDAW KNIGHT 90.10%
THIRD TOP JUST A PAR 90.10%
BAR 87.20%
Much tighter than the other races. I like The Ould Lad's profile here, but the other three are close up on profiles.
All the best for Day 3.
TWO PROFILE HORSES CLEAR TOP IN 5 RACES. NEED TO WORK OUT HOW TO PUT THEM TOGETHER IN SOME WAY, TO SMALL STAKES WITHOUT SPENDING A FORTUNE.
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