Cheltenham Festival
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Inspired by this Cheltenham Forum and particularly JOCI's thread, I have been analysing the last 10 years winners of Festival races, firstly to see how my own Ante Post choices would fair compared with previous winners, based on the strongest stats for each race that I could find (age, days since run, winning form, winning trips etc etc), and applying a filter where more recent years trends get a little more points than 7, 8, 9, 10 years ago.
This means that if a winning trend changes, then its picked up quicker than a flat 10 years analysis.
I have compared findings with JOCI and a lot of the analysis top rated are similar, and some with different gaps in the scores.
Continuing into Day 2 Top Trend Scorers on this thread all on Monday 9th, March 2015, so anyone viewing can see who has the top PROFILE's compared with past winners.
Here's hoping the work is worth it and it throws some names into the equation that I can cheer home from the stands this week.
Wishing you a successful week
This means that if a winning trend changes, then its picked up quicker than a flat 10 years analysis.
I have compared findings with JOCI and a lot of the analysis top rated are similar, and some with different gaps in the scores.
Continuing into Day 2 Top Trend Scorers on this thread all on Monday 9th, March 2015, so anyone viewing can see who has the top PROFILE's compared with past winners.
Here's hoping the work is worth it and it throws some names into the equation that I can cheer home from the stands this week.
Wishing you a successful week
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NEPTUNE INVESTMENTS NOVICES HURDLE - RACE 1
TOP RATED DOUVAN 94.00% SECOND TOP ROI DES FRANS 92.10% THIRD TOP TEA FOR TWO 88.10% FOURTH TOP NICHOLS CANYON 85.80% BAR 82.10% A massive 12 winning trends analysed here, and Douvan tops out again, though destined to run on Day 1 in the Supreme. Surprise with ROI DES FRANS in second, another Mullins horse, with entries later in thw week, and solid favourite for a handicap. Tea for Two best of the rest. I liked Outlander, he came out at 82.3%, who will be somewhere near the top profile if the 90+ ones come out to run elsewhere. |
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RSA CHASE - RACE 2
TOP RATED VALSEUR LIDO 89.00% SECOND TOP SOUTHFIELD THEATRE 87.30% THIRD TOP VAUTOUR 85.00% FOURTH TOP VERY WOOD 81.50% BAR 79.80% Again, a massive 12 winning trends tested, and Mullins top again, with Nicholls this time, with the top of the betting missing from the top of the profiles. I am a massive fan of Don Poli (next years Gold Cup winner?) but his profile score here is 70.7% (lacks recent run, only 2 chase runs, and young at 6 c/w 7 year olds winners stats). Kings Palace scores 78.2% and Coneygree 79.8%. |
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CORAL CUP - RACE 3
TOP RATED BARADARI 100.00% TOP RATED ZABANA 100.00% THIRD TOP SHELFORD 95.80% FOURTH TOP GOODWOOD MIRAGE 89.80% BAR 88.40% I love it when the profiles reveal a horse I would back for a race, particularly a handicap. Here I am with Venetia on Baradari, excellent profile, with all 12 trends hit, just the same as Zabana, another improver, and Shelford, who has some good form and not had a hard season for Dan Skelton. Happy that the top 3 are a little clear of the rest, and happy to take 20/1 on Baradari NRNB. |
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CHAMPION CHASE - RACE 4
TOP RATED CHAMPAGNE FEVER 100.00% ECOND TOP SIRE DE GRUGY 98.00% THIRD TOP DODGING BULLETS 97.70% EQUAL FOURTH SPRINTER SACRE 89.00% EQUAL FOURTH BALDER SUCCES 89.00% BAR 84.40% 10 trends for past winners and Champagne Fever hits all 10. Sire De Grugy and Dodging Bullets lurk dangerously close, on ratings though, and I for one would love to see Sprinter Sacre come back from his problems to thrill the crowds. Therefore I probably wont play in this race personally, and follow it with an eye on how the top profiles play out in the race itself. |
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CROSS COUNTRY CHASE - RACE 5
TOP RATED QUANTITATIVEASING 89.00% (but 100.00% if in first 3 in betting - he is 4th at moment) SECOND TOP SIRE COLLONGES 80.70% THIRD TOP ANY CURRENCY 75.30% FOURTH TOP IPSOS DU BERLAIS 75.30% BAR 74.80% Only 7 trends for this race, and Quantitativeeasing hits them all, if he creeps into the first 3 in the betting (one of the trends). QE was also Enda Bolger's only runner in the race fro ma long way out, which is very interesting when you consider his X-Country background. I will back QE for this race given the connections and strength of profile. |
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FRED WINTER JUVENILE HANDICAP HURDLE - RACE 6
TOP RATED HOSTILE FIRE 100.00% SECOND TOP BEATABOUTTHEBUSH 96.60% EQUAL SECOND QUALANDO 96.60% FOURTH TOP ZARIB 93.10% BAR 89.70% I was a fan of ZARIB for this before I began the work, and was heartened to see he comes close to the top of the profiles. Hostile Fire is NRNB Favourite for this and its easy to see why with all 6 trends hit, for this race. I am happy to play ZARIB. |
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WEATHERBYS CHAMPION BUMPER - RACE 7
TOP RATED SUPASUNDAE 94.40% SECOND TOP PYLONTHEPRESSURE 93.40% THIRD TOP VIGIL 92.40% EQUAL THIRD TOP STONE HARD 92.40% EQUAL THIRD TOP GENERAL PRINCIPLE 92.40% EQUAL THIRD TOP JETSTREAM JACK 92.40% BAR 89.40% I was a fan of Pylonthepressure for the race, on visual clues of his racing, the 9 trends throw up a jumble of names at the top, and I don't have enough eyes to follow the six with 90+ profiles in the race, so will probably wait until the day, see if some don't run, and then check the remainder to see if a selection comes through to the forefront of my mind. |
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Yes that is brilliant, love the trends and your Coral Cup selections. fit in with one of the trends I really like in handicaps, at this meeting.
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Cheers cricketnut. its taken a lot of time to pull together, and I have never gone into Festival week with so much background info covered in so many races.
Heres hoping the likes of Baradari, Zarib, Maretello Tower, Noble Endeavor and Princely Conn all run in the races highlighted to best suit them, and have safe passages into contention late on. That's already way too much to ask I know!! |
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Day 2 Past Winners Profiles, updated after final decs.
RACE 1 - Neptune HURDLE TOP RATED VYTA DU ROC 86.30% SECOND TOP NICHOLS CANYON 85.80% THIRD TOP OUTLANDER 82.30% FOURTH TOP NICHOLS CANYON 80.10% BAR 78.10% A lot close up to each other in this one, should have the winner from the four (I hope!). RACE 2 - RSA CHASE TOP RATED SOUTHFIELD THEATRE 87.30% SECOND TOP WOUNDED WARRIOR 79.00% THIRD TOP KINGS PALACE 78.20% BAR 74.20% Southfield Theatre's profile rating is well clear. RACE 3 - CORAL CUP TOP RATED BARADARI 100.00% TOP RATED ZABANA 100.00% THIRD TOP GOODWOOD MIRAGE 89.80% FOURTH TOP TTEBBOB 89.80% BAR 84.70% The Top 2 Baradari and Zabana are a fair way clear, here. RACE 4 - CHAMPION CHASE TOP RATED CHAMPAGNE FEVER 100.00% ECOND TOP SIRE DE GRUGY 98.00% THIRD TOP DODGING BULLETS 97.70% EQUAL FOURTH SPRINTER SACRE 89.00% BAR 84.40% Too close to call, with the top three, and with SS potentially the best if he is 90$ back to his best. RACE 5 - CROSS COUNTRY CHASE TOP RATED QUANTITATIVEASING 89.50% SECOND TOP ANY CURRENCY 75.30% THIRD TOP IPSOS DU BERLAIS 75.30% FOURTH TOP UNCLE JUNIOR 74.80% BAR 72.70% QE is well clear, some may not think he will win, but his profile suggests he should have a chance, possibly each way. RACE 6 - FRED WINTER HURDLE TOP RATED HOSTILE FIRE 100.00% SECOND TOP BEATABOUTTHEBUSH 96.60% EQUAL SECOND QUALANDO 96.60% FOURTH TOP ZARIB 93.10% BAR 81.30% Very tight, but only for four of the runners, the rest are well back. Hope that's a good omen, and I am going in on Zarib in this one. RACE 7 - CHAMPION BUMPER TOP RATED SUPASUNDAE 94.40% SECOND TOP PYLONTHEPRESSURE 93.40% THIRD TOP VIGIL 92.40% EQUAL THIRD TOP STONE HARD 92.40% EQUAL THIRD TOP GENERAL PRINCIPLE 92.40% EQUAL THIRD TOP JETSTREAM JACK 92.40% BAR 89.40% Way to tight to call here, Supasundae scrapes to the top, but only just. |
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Sorry, in the Neptune BEAST OF BURDEN IS 4th on 80.1%, not NICHOLS CANYON.
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After hitting post and bar on Day 1, Day two brought 2 winners, one maybe very unlucky horse in QE in the Cross Country (cruising when pushed off the track), and placed horses at 25/1 and 20/1 in the handicaps.
RACE 1 - Neptune HURDLE BLOWOUT TOP RATED VYTA DU ROC 86.30% SECOND TOP NICHOLS CANYON 85.80% THIRD TOP OUTLANDER 82.30% FOURTH TOP NICHOLS CANYON 80.10% 3RD @ 7/2 RACE 2 - RSA CHASE - DON POLI BELIED HIS PROFILE (YOUNG AND INEXPERIENCED) PROFILE CHOICES BOTH PLACED AT EACH WAY PRICES. TOP RATED SOUTHFIELD THEATRE 87.30% 2ND AT 13/2 SECOND TOP WOUNDED WARRIOR 79.00% 3RD AT 12/1 THIRD TOP KINGS PALACE 78.20% RACE 3 - CORAL CUP - HIT THE POST WITH ZABANA 2ND AT 25/1 TO MYSTERY FRENCH HORSE. GREAT EACH WAY PRICE. TOP RATED BARADARI 100.00% TOP RATED ZABANA 100.00% 2ND AT 25/1 THIRD TOP GOODWOOD MIRAGE 89.80% FOURTH TOP TTEBBOB 89.80% BAR 84.70% The Top 2 Baradari and Zabana are a fair way clear, here. RACE 4 - CHAMPION CHASE WINNER AT LAST - AT 9/2 SIRE DE GRUGY 98.00% DODGING BULLETS 97.70% 1ST AT 9/2 SPRINTER SACRE 89.00% RACE 5 - CROSS COUNTRY CHASE - ROBBED? BY QE BEING PUSHED OFF COURSE,TWO OTHERS PLACED TOP RATED QUANTITATIVEASING 89.50% PUSHED OUT WHEN CRUISING SECOND TOP ANY CURRENCY 75.30% 2ND AT 7/1 THIRD TOP IPSOS DU BERLAIS 75.30% FOURTH TOP UNCLE JUNIOR 74.80% 3RD AT 20/1 RACE 6 - FRED WINTER HURDLE - YEEESSSSS A 25/1 WINNER TOP RATED HOSTILE FIRE 100.00% SECOND TOP BEATABOUTTHEBUSH 96.60% EQUAL SECOND QUALANDO 96.60% 1ST AT 25/1 FOURTH TOP ZARIB 93.10% BAR 81.30% BLOWOUT IN THE BUMPER, A RACE NOT TO BET IN WITH NO COLLATERAL FORM AND LOADS RATED CLOSE TO EACH OTHER. ROLL ON DAY 3 |
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Well done
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