LUCKY 15 - cheltenham

Champion Hurdle - Arctic Fire - Been running well in defeat and never given hard time, its almost like they are waiting with this one and while others will take it each other on, he will be swinging in behind unnoticed. Beat Jezki LTO (hard to say if the mistake was costly or jezki was starting to waver) and convinced with drying ground and away from Ireland he will beat Hurricane Fly, Just hope all 8 stand their ground as he looks certain to be in first 3. The New one had his chance last season, The yard are quiet and he had it hard last time out at Haydock, wouldn't be surprised to see him over it for season in comparison to last season prep runs.. Jezki may have had his heart broken this season by the Fly, You cant keep running your heart out and getting beat, cant rule him out, but I like to think Arctic Fire has been getting close without really being asked too many serious questions. The Fav is short, may be the next Istabraq, but there is something that is just telling me if it really dries out, he could be quite a heavy galloping beast or may just not quicken.

Champion Chase - Sire De Grugy - Should be favourite, jumped poorly on return but I reckon he would've beaten the Mole if he didn't unseat, looked to me like he was still tanking and then at Chepstow giving lumps away he proved he was still tanking, that wasn't even a race to take the edge off him, he will be proper tanking and he looks more solid then Sprinter Sacre in my opinion. Dodging bullets has had his day and Mr Mole isn't top level and will be outpaced.

World Hurdle - Briar Hill - This looks like it will be a case of the best stayer will win and champion bumper winner from 2yrs ago hasn't had best of time this season, but the master trainer can get them turned around and with the better ground this is one that will improve for time away from the mud. Monksland has had his problems and would be a danger, Jetson is honest if just below the class, At Fishers cross is one I thought about and was almost my choice. Zarkander & Saphir I don't think are stout stayers. Zarkander is that in between horse, not good enough to win a champion hurdle and not strong enough to win a stayers. Saphir got a race here that fell more into his lap, the Pipe horse will reverse the form in a truer run race. Briar Hill cant keep being an unlucky horse and you just know this classy horse will land a big one and you will all go, Dam Briar Hill u complete mutt, but you know he is just waiting to win a grade 1 hurdle on better ground in the senior ranks.

Gold Cup - Djakadam - Watch the Hennessy at Newbury in which this horse was tanking along for one so inexperienced and finished a never nearer 8th and actually was put off by a blunder in front on him before making a mistake 2 out, he wasn't knocked about there on in by Ruby on soft ground as he knew there is another day with this horse. Still lightly raced he won the Irish Hennessy off top weight, that was a massive performance and other then Silvinaco Conti he has put up the best performance as the Lexus form looks suspect. This will be his sixth run and he can carry on his improvement back here where he was still travelling when departing 2 out at last year's festival. Better ground will suit him as he looks to hold some speed. Only rated 157, but he is better then that in my mind, I believe he could be 170 and is his owners best chance since War of Attrition.

That's my each-way Lucky 15 on the big race. Willie Mullins could be getting a Christmas card from me this year