Cheltenham Festival
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01 Mar 15
20:11
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Date Joined:
02 Apr 03
Some notes below if anyone is interested... first one Ive ever been to and quite enjoyed it,. although could see how going to to many could only add to the confusion!
Panel
Paul Jones – Author of Cheltenham Festival Betting Guide
Stuart Machin – RUK Commentator
Donald McCain
John Morris – Author of Jumping Prospects
Andy Holding – Tipster and Speed Figures Expert
Supreme Novices Hurdle
Everyone in agreement Douvan is a machine. Paul Jones had been at the Cheltenham weights and lunch and was told Willie says he is the most confident he has ever been about a horse at the Festival. Quite a statement, if true! PJ felt l’Ami Serge was the only viable alternative and an e/w bet to nothing and is the value bet. JM was very impressed with Qewy last time and thought he was the each way bet. Everyone was wary of the record of short priced fav’s in the race, but still thought Douvan would win.
Arkle
Again, everyone agreed Un de Sceaux was a monster and should win well, but nobody was interested in taking the price. AH was keen to wait until betting without the fav was released and was interested in Clarcam. JM made a very good case for Sergeant Reckless as an each way alternative. Very unusual prep for the Arkle but feels he is a very good jumper, has been trained specifically for the race and will relish spring ground and a fast pace. Gone well at the festival before.
Champion Hurdle
All of the panel were damning about The New One’s chances. The consensus was that he doesn’t jump well enough and won’t be quick enough. AH made the point that his mistake last year is over stated and after STD allowed him to get back into the race, look at where he is at the top of the hill and the bottom. They all quickened away from him and he won’t have the speed to stay with them at the crucial part of the race. Everyone hugely respected Faugheen and felt he was the likeliest winner, but felt Jezki e/w was the bet. Couldn’t see him out of the first three.
Neptune
All agreed it was an open race. JM said don’t forget Tell us More as he hasn’t become a bad horse since his last run, and the vibes were very strong at the start of the season. Nichols Canyon worthy fav but a very open year and wouldn’t surprise them if anyone in the first 7 or 8 in the betting won.
RSA
The whole panel were very excited about this race and felt it could be a vintage renewal. Paul Jones spoke to Sarah Bradstock at the Cheltenham Weights lunch earlier that day, and she said the faster the ground, the more likely Coneygree will run in the RSA. And Noel Meade told him that Very Wood is more likely to run in this than the four miler, even if Don Poli runs as well. AH thinks Don Poli is a world beater and is his nap of the week. Hopes Valseur Lido doesn’t run in this as well as they are his two biggest fancies of the week and have recorded some phenomenal speed figures. Couple of positives mentions for Southfield Theatre… form working out well, and likely type for the race.
Champion Chase
All agreed that Sprinter Sacre was massively up against it. Mentioned the look on Nicky’s face when he crossed the line at Ascot and everyone agreed he looked gutted. DMc said that after the troubles he has had, they would have wanted him as near to 100% as possible for the last run, so it was definitely disappointing. Everyone was very impressed with Sire de Grugy last time and felt he was a deserved favourite. All happy to take on Dodging Bullets. AH made a very good case for Hidden Cyclone as his ew nap of the week. Will stay the trip well, jumps well, will like the ground, and a good record at the Festival. Expects him to shorten a lot between now and the race. AH hoping to see a market Sprinter Sacre v Sire de Grugy and anything above Evs for SdG would be one of the bets of the week.
JLT
Nobody very impressed with Vautour and think he is too short. Priced up on reputation and alst years performance, rather than what he has achieved over fences. PJ very strong on Valseur Lido and hopes he runs in this… will win if he does. AH said Valseur Lido and Apache Stronghold have achieved his best speed figures this season and really liked both for the race.
Ryanair
AH very strong on Don Cossack. Horse has matured and filled out and he thinks 4-1 is a big price. Everyone thought Cue Card has gone and should be avoided. PJ has heard a rumour Johns Spirit will go for the Champion Chase, else could have fancied him for this. PJ made a good case for Module ew at 40-1.
World Hurdle
Zarkandar solid enough, but the panel said they would be surprised if there wasn’t something better than him in the race. Rumour that AP will ride Rock on Ruby as he doesn’t have a ride in the race currently. Positive mentions for Monksland and Un Temps pour Tout as value options.
Triumph
Peace & Co too short in a deep renewal. PJ was adamant that P&C is too buzzy for this race. Had earplugs in last time and cant see him dealing with the Festival, never mind the busiest day of the lot on Gold Cup day. DMc said both P&C and Hargam beat Starchitect easily, but of the two, he would rather be on Hargam at Cheltenham. Felt the P&C performance was visually impressive but a freak race. AH also a big fan of Hargam and said his time at Chelts was faster than The New One’s. Felt it would be wise to wait until the Fred Winter to get a handle of the form, particularly with regard to Hargam and Petite Parisienne.
Gold Cup
PJ very keen on Boston Bob. DMc said he was amazed how animated AP was about Holywell’s last run. Took him back how pleased he was with the horse, must have a big chance. Holywell was also AH’s pick… feels his form is being really undervalued, particularly the Aintree form.
Other picks
They were then asked for an overview of their picks in other races:
AH concentrated on his speed figures and was very persuasive. Said that based on what he had clocked this season, his stand out bets were:
Novices Handicap – Generous Ransom
Pertemps Final – Mydor (if he gets in!)
Mildmay of Flete – Hollow Penny (really taken with his speed figures)
Bumper – Pylonthepressure
PJ picked the following:
Cross Country – Sire Collonges
Handicap Chase – Ned Stark (owner is the first time sponsor of the race and sponsors the yard, been the aim all season)
SM picked Le Mercurey
JM picked Salsify in the Hunter Chase, but was most taken with Sea The World in the Bumper. Described his last run as a Pegasus performance
DMc said he only had e/w chances but liked Starchitect in the Fred Winter. Stays all day and will wear blinkers. Corrin Wod wont run and will be saved for Aintree.
Nap and EW bets of the week
AH - Don Poli (nap) and Hidden Cyclone ew
PJ – Ned Stark (nap) and Module ew but said that wherever Valseur Lido runs, he will win
SM – Faugheen (nap) and The Giant Bolster ew
DMc – Liked The Young Master if he went for the Four Miler. Said he never tipped winners but Gordon Elliot always does so phoned him before he arrived and his top two were Un Atout in the Martin Pipe and Jetstream Jack in the Bumper. Was surprised how strong he was on the latter.
JM – Don Cossack (nap) and Salsify ew
Panel
Paul Jones – Author of Cheltenham Festival Betting Guide
Stuart Machin – RUK Commentator
Donald McCain
John Morris – Author of Jumping Prospects
Andy Holding – Tipster and Speed Figures Expert
Supreme Novices Hurdle
Everyone in agreement Douvan is a machine. Paul Jones had been at the Cheltenham weights and lunch and was told Willie says he is the most confident he has ever been about a horse at the Festival. Quite a statement, if true! PJ felt l’Ami Serge was the only viable alternative and an e/w bet to nothing and is the value bet. JM was very impressed with Qewy last time and thought he was the each way bet. Everyone was wary of the record of short priced fav’s in the race, but still thought Douvan would win.
Arkle
Again, everyone agreed Un de Sceaux was a monster and should win well, but nobody was interested in taking the price. AH was keen to wait until betting without the fav was released and was interested in Clarcam. JM made a very good case for Sergeant Reckless as an each way alternative. Very unusual prep for the Arkle but feels he is a very good jumper, has been trained specifically for the race and will relish spring ground and a fast pace. Gone well at the festival before.
Champion Hurdle
All of the panel were damning about The New One’s chances. The consensus was that he doesn’t jump well enough and won’t be quick enough. AH made the point that his mistake last year is over stated and after STD allowed him to get back into the race, look at where he is at the top of the hill and the bottom. They all quickened away from him and he won’t have the speed to stay with them at the crucial part of the race. Everyone hugely respected Faugheen and felt he was the likeliest winner, but felt Jezki e/w was the bet. Couldn’t see him out of the first three.
Neptune
All agreed it was an open race. JM said don’t forget Tell us More as he hasn’t become a bad horse since his last run, and the vibes were very strong at the start of the season. Nichols Canyon worthy fav but a very open year and wouldn’t surprise them if anyone in the first 7 or 8 in the betting won.
RSA
The whole panel were very excited about this race and felt it could be a vintage renewal. Paul Jones spoke to Sarah Bradstock at the Cheltenham Weights lunch earlier that day, and she said the faster the ground, the more likely Coneygree will run in the RSA. And Noel Meade told him that Very Wood is more likely to run in this than the four miler, even if Don Poli runs as well. AH thinks Don Poli is a world beater and is his nap of the week. Hopes Valseur Lido doesn’t run in this as well as they are his two biggest fancies of the week and have recorded some phenomenal speed figures. Couple of positives mentions for Southfield Theatre… form working out well, and likely type for the race.
Champion Chase
All agreed that Sprinter Sacre was massively up against it. Mentioned the look on Nicky’s face when he crossed the line at Ascot and everyone agreed he looked gutted. DMc said that after the troubles he has had, they would have wanted him as near to 100% as possible for the last run, so it was definitely disappointing. Everyone was very impressed with Sire de Grugy last time and felt he was a deserved favourite. All happy to take on Dodging Bullets. AH made a very good case for Hidden Cyclone as his ew nap of the week. Will stay the trip well, jumps well, will like the ground, and a good record at the Festival. Expects him to shorten a lot between now and the race. AH hoping to see a market Sprinter Sacre v Sire de Grugy and anything above Evs for SdG would be one of the bets of the week.
JLT
Nobody very impressed with Vautour and think he is too short. Priced up on reputation and alst years performance, rather than what he has achieved over fences. PJ very strong on Valseur Lido and hopes he runs in this… will win if he does. AH said Valseur Lido and Apache Stronghold have achieved his best speed figures this season and really liked both for the race.
Ryanair
AH very strong on Don Cossack. Horse has matured and filled out and he thinks 4-1 is a big price. Everyone thought Cue Card has gone and should be avoided. PJ has heard a rumour Johns Spirit will go for the Champion Chase, else could have fancied him for this. PJ made a good case for Module ew at 40-1.
World Hurdle
Zarkandar solid enough, but the panel said they would be surprised if there wasn’t something better than him in the race. Rumour that AP will ride Rock on Ruby as he doesn’t have a ride in the race currently. Positive mentions for Monksland and Un Temps pour Tout as value options.
Triumph
Peace & Co too short in a deep renewal. PJ was adamant that P&C is too buzzy for this race. Had earplugs in last time and cant see him dealing with the Festival, never mind the busiest day of the lot on Gold Cup day. DMc said both P&C and Hargam beat Starchitect easily, but of the two, he would rather be on Hargam at Cheltenham. Felt the P&C performance was visually impressive but a freak race. AH also a big fan of Hargam and said his time at Chelts was faster than The New One’s. Felt it would be wise to wait until the Fred Winter to get a handle of the form, particularly with regard to Hargam and Petite Parisienne.
Gold Cup
PJ very keen on Boston Bob. DMc said he was amazed how animated AP was about Holywell’s last run. Took him back how pleased he was with the horse, must have a big chance. Holywell was also AH’s pick… feels his form is being really undervalued, particularly the Aintree form.
Other picks
They were then asked for an overview of their picks in other races:
AH concentrated on his speed figures and was very persuasive. Said that based on what he had clocked this season, his stand out bets were:
Novices Handicap – Generous Ransom
Pertemps Final – Mydor (if he gets in!)
Mildmay of Flete – Hollow Penny (really taken with his speed figures)
Bumper – Pylonthepressure
PJ picked the following:
Cross Country – Sire Collonges
Handicap Chase – Ned Stark (owner is the first time sponsor of the race and sponsors the yard, been the aim all season)
SM picked Le Mercurey
JM picked Salsify in the Hunter Chase, but was most taken with Sea The World in the Bumper. Described his last run as a Pegasus performance
DMc said he only had e/w chances but liked Starchitect in the Fred Winter. Stays all day and will wear blinkers. Corrin Wod wont run and will be saved for Aintree.
Nap and EW bets of the week
AH - Don Poli (nap) and Hidden Cyclone ew
PJ – Ned Stark (nap) and Module ew but said that wherever Valseur Lido runs, he will win
SM – Faugheen (nap) and The Giant Bolster ew
DMc – Liked The Young Master if he went for the Four Miler. Said he never tipped winners but Gordon Elliot always does so phoned him before he arrived and his top two were Un Atout in the Martin Pipe and Jetstream Jack in the Bumper. Was surprised how strong he was on the latter.
JM – Don Cossack (nap) and Salsify ew
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thanks for the write up CCM
interesting that Peace and co has been mentioned a few times as a buzzy horse - could lose it before the start |
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Yes didnt realise he wore earplugs last time. Probably one to watch on the day before lumping on...
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